Vagues sur la côte aquitaine : régionalisation dynamique de 1958 à 2002

National audienceUn système de modélisation de vagues, forcé uniquement par des champs de vent a été mis en place avec le code WAVEWATCH IIITM sur une période de 44 ans (1958 à 2002) en vue d'étudier l'impact de la variabilité climatique passée sur les états de mer et sur l'érosion de la côte aquitaine. Les emboîtements hauturiers forcés par les champs de vent de la réanalyse ERA-40 ont été calibrés sur la période 1998-2002 sur 8 points de mesures. Les résultats sur 44 ans ont ensuite été validés sur 11 bouée

An efficient covariant frame for the spherical shallow water equations: Well balanced DG approximation and application to tsunami and storm surge

International audienceIn this work we consider an e cient discretization of the Shallow Water Equations in spherical geometry for oceanographic applications. Instead of the classical 2d-covariant or 3d-Cartesian approaches, we focus on the mixed 3d/2d form of [Bernard et al., JCP 2009] which evolves the 2d momentum tangential to the sphere by projecting the 3d-Cartesian right-hand side on the sphere surface. Di↵erently from the last reference we consider the exact representation of the sphere instead of the finite element one, mixed with a covariant basis projection of the momentum. This leads to several simplifications of the Discontinuous Galerkin scheme: the local mass matrix goes back to the standard block-diagonal form; the Riemann Problem does not require any tensor or vector rotations to align the bases on the two sides of an edge. Second we consider well balancing corrections related to relevant equilibrium states for tsunami and storm surge simulations. These corrections allow to compensate for the inherent non-exactness of the quadrature induced by the non-polynomial nature of both the geometrical mapping and of the covariant basis. In other words, these corrections are the order of the cubature error. We show that their addition makes the scheme exactly well balanced, and is is equivalent to recasting the integral of the hydrostatic pressure term in strong form. The proposed method is validated on academic benchmarks involving both smooth and discontinuous solutions, and applied to realistic tsunami and an historical storm surge simulation

Coastal Flooding in the Maldives Induced by Mean Sea-Level Rise and Wind-Waves: From Global to Local Coastal Modelling

The Maldives, with one of the lowest average land elevations above present-day mean sea level, is among the world regions that will be the most impacted by mean sea-level rise and marine extreme events induced by climate change. Yet, the lack of regional and local information on marine drivers is a major drawback that coastal decision-makers face to anticipate the impacts of climate change along the Maldivian coastlines. In this study we focus on wind-waves, the main driver of extremes causing coastal flooding in the region. We dynamically downscale large-scale fields from global wave models, providing a valuable source of climate information along the coastlines with spatial resolution down to 500 m. This dataset serves to characterise the wave climate around the Maldives, with applications in regional development and land reclamation, and is also an essential input for local flood hazard modelling. We illustrate this with a case study of HA Hoarafushi, an atoll island where local topo-bathymetry is available. This island is exposed to the highest incoming waves in the archipelago and recently saw development of an airport island on its reef via land reclamation. Regional waves are propagated toward the shoreline using a phase-resolving model and coastal inundation is simulated under different mean sea-level rise conditions of up to 1 m above present-day mean sea level. The results are represented as risk maps with different hazard levels gathering inundation depth and speed, providing a clear evidence of the impacts of the sea level rise combined with extreme wave events

Simulation de la propagation et du déferlement d’une vague et de l’inondation d’unrèclif 2D: évaluation comparative des codes numérique pour la modélisation des tsunamis

In the framework of the French research project TANDEM dedicated to tsunami modelling, a series of benchmarks has been set up, addressing the various stages of a tsunami event: generation, propagation, run-up and inundation. We present here the results of five codes, involving both depth-averaged Boussinesq and fully 3D Navier-Stokes equations, aimed at being applicable to tsunami modelling. The codes are evaluated on a flow involving propagation, run-up, overtopping and reflection of the waves on two-dimensional reefs, and compared with the experimental data produced from a set of laboratory experiments carried out at the O.H. Hinsdale Wave Research Laboratory, Oregon State University (OSU, see Roeber et al., 2010 and Roeber and Chung, 2012).Dans le cadre du projet de recherche français TANDEM dédié à la modélisation de tsunamis, une série de tests a été mise enplace concernant les différentes étapes d'un tsunami : la génération, la propagation et l'inondation. Les résultats obtenus par cinq codessont présentés ici. Chacun d'eux utilise les équations de Boussinesq moyennées sur la profondeur et les équations de Naver-Stokes entrois dimensions adaptées à la modélisation de tsunamis. Ces codes sont évalués sur un écoulement impliquant la propagation, lasubmersion, et la réflexion des vagues sur un récif en deux dimensions. Une comparaison est effectuée à partir de données expérimentalesprovenant du laboratoire d'Hinsdale (O.H Hinsdale Wave Research Laboratory, Oregon State University, OSU, voir Roeber et al.,2010 etRoeber et Chung, 2012)

Evolution of coastal zone vulnerability to marine inundation in a global change context. Application to Languedoc Roussillon (France)

The coastal system is likely to suffer increasing costal risk in a global change context. Its management implies to consider those risks in a holistic approach of the different vulnerability components of the coastal zone, by improving knowledge of hazard and exposure as well as analyzing and quantifying present day and future territory vulnerability. The ANR/VMC2007/MISEEVA project (2008-2011) has applied this approach on Languedoc Roussillon region in France. MISEEVA approach relies on several scenarios for 2030 and 2100, in terms of meteorology (driver of coastal hazard), sea level rise, and also considering further trends in demography and economy, and possible adaption strategies Hazard has been modeled (SWAN, MARS and SURFWB), on the base of the presentday situation, sea level rise hypotheses, and existing or modeled data, of extreme meteorological driving f. It allowed to assess the possible surges ranges and map coastal zone exposure to: - a permanent inundation (considering sea level rise in 2030 and 2100, - a recurrent inundation (considering sea level rise and extreme tidal range) - an exceptional inundation (adding extreme storm surge to sea level rise and tidal range). In 2030, exposure will be comparable to present day exposure. In 2100, extreme condition will affect a larger zone. Present days social and economic components of the coastal zone have been analyzed in terms of vulnerability and potential damaging. Adaptation capacity was approached by public inquiries and interviews of stakeholders and policy makers, based on existing planning documents The knowledge of the present day system is then compared to the possible management strategies that could be chosen in the future, so to imagine what would be the evolution of vulnerability to marine inundation, in regards to these possible strategies

Enfermedades crónicas

Adherencia al tratamiento farmacológico y relación con el control metabólico en pacientes con DM2Aluminio en pacientes con terapia de reemplazo renal crónico con hemodiálisis en Bogotá, ColombiaAmputación de extremidades inferiores: ¿están aumentando las tasas?Consumo de edulcorantes artificiales en jóvenes universitariosCómo crecen niños normales de 2 años que son sobrepeso a los 7 añosDiagnóstico con enfoque territorial de salud cardiovascular en la Región MetropolitanaEfecto a corto plazo de una intervención con ejercicio físico, en niños con sobrepesoEfectos de la cirugía bariátrica en pacientes con síndrome metabólico e IMC < 35 KG/M2Encuesta mundial de tabaquismo en estudiantes de profesiones de saludEnfermedades crónicas no transmisibles: Consecuencias sociales-sanitarias de comunidades rurales en ChileEpidemiología de las muertes hospitalarias por patologías relacionadas a muerte encefálica, Chile 2003-2007Estado nutricional y conductas alimentarias en adolescentes de 4º medio de la Región de CoquimboEstudio de calidad de vida en una muestra del plan piloto para hepatitis CEvaluación del proceso asistencial y de resultados de salud del GES de diabetes mellitus 2Factores de riesgo cardiovascular en población universitaria de la Facsal, universidad de TarapacáImplicancias psicosociales en la génesis, evolución y tratamiento de pacientes con hipertensión arterial esencialInfarto agudo al miocardio (IAM): Realidad en el Hospital de Puerto Natales, 2009-2010Introducción de nuevas TIC y mejoría de la asistencia a un programa de saludNiños obesos atendidos en el Cesfam de Puerto Natales y su entorno familiarPerfil de la mortalidad por cáncer de cuello uterino en Río de JaneiroPerfil del paciente primo-consultante del Programa de Salud Cardiovascular, Consultorio Cordillera Andina, Los AndesPrevalencia de automedicación en mujeres beneficiarias del Hospital Comunitario de Til-TiPrevalencia de caries en población preescolar y su relación con malnutrición por excesoPrevalencia de retinopatía diabética en comunas dependientes del Servicio de Salud Metropolitano Occidente (SSMOC)Problemas de adherencia farmacológica antihipertensiva en población mapuche: Un estudio cualitativoRol biológico de los antioxidantes innatos en pacientes portadores de VIH/SidaSobrepeso en empleados de un restaurante de una universidad pública del estado de São Paul

Numerical modelling of historical landslide-generated tsunamis in the French Lesser Antilles

International audienceTwo historical landslide-induced tsunamis that reached the coasts of the French Lesser Antilles are studied. First, the Martinique coast was hit by a tsunami down the western flank of Montagne Pelée at the beginning of the big eruption of May 1902. More recently, the northeastern coast of Guadeloupe was affected by a tsunami that had been generated around Montserrat by pyroclastic flows entering the sea, during the July 2003 eruption of the Soufrière Hills volcano. We use a modified version of the GEOWAVE model to compute numerical simulations of both events. Two source hypotheses are considered for each tsunami. The comparison of the simulation results with reported tsunami height data helps to discriminate between the tested source decriptions. In the Martinique case, we obtain a better fit to data when considering three successive lahars entering the sea, as a simplified single source leads to an overstimation of the tsunami wave heights at the coast. In the Montserrat case, the best model uses a unique source which volume corresponds to published data concerning the peak volume flow. These findings emphasize the importance of an accurate description of the relevant volume as well as the timing sequence of the source event in landslide-generated tsunami modelling. They also show that considering far-field effects in addition to near-field effects may significantly improve tsunami modelling