Trade Shocks And Employment Change In Canada: 1972-1980

The thesis examines the relative strengths of domestic and foreign (or trade ) shocks on sectoral employment change in Canada. Chapter 1 surveys several different approaches used in the past. Chapter 2 examines three of these using hypothetical time series data for an artificial economy with a three-industry small, open economy computational general equilibrium (CGE) model. The results show some of the weaknesses of these approaches and their potential for predictive error.;Chapter 3 sets out a similar CGE model to be applied to Canadian data. Competitive domestic industries produce goods that are assumed to be perfect substitutes for foreign goods. The calibration of the model to two data sets is explained and the 1972 and 1980 Canadian data sets used with the model are described.;Chapter 4 presents results of counterfactual calculations undertaken with the CGE model. The effects of a variety of shocks are examined: changes in world prices of traded goods ( trade shocks in this model), technology, the aggregate labour force, tax rates, and tastes. Trade shocks, defined in this broad way, seem to have relatively large effects on employment in this model, whether compared with the net effects of all domestic shocks or separately with the different types of domestic shocks.;Changes in trade volumes or in the share of net imports in domestic consumption may also be defined as trade shocks . To investigate their employment effects, counterfactual calculations are made for individual industries. Compared with the net effects of all other shocks, this definition of a trade shock leads to relatively small employment effects. This result parallels those of much cruder methods examined in Chapter 2.;A brief concluding chapter summarizes the results and discusses the limitations of the calculations

Thermal history of the early Miocene Waitemata Basin and adjacent Waipapa Group, North Island, New Zealand

Apatite fission track (AFT) and vitrinite reflectance (VR) data for early Miocene outcrops from the Waitemata Basin reveal that the basin sequence was subjected to shallow burial before denudation. AFT results suggest that the total sediment thickness within the basin was <=1 km and maximum paleotemperatures during burial never exceeded c. 60deg.C. Statistical analyses of the detrital AFT ages distinguish four dominant sources of sediment supply: contemporaneous volcanism; metagreywacke rocks of the Waipapa Group; the Northland Allochthon; and an unidentified source south of the basin. The apatite and zircon fission track results from the Waipapa Group rocks (Gondwana Terrane) adjacent to the basin suggest two discrete phases of accelerated cooling: the first during the early Cretaceous (c. 117 Ma) and the second during the mid Cretaceous (c. 84 Ma). These events probably reflect key stages in the tectonic development of the New Zealand microcontinent during the Cretaceous period, the earlier event being related to the climax of compressional deformation (Rangitata Orogeny) and the latter to extensional tectonism associated with the opening of the Tasman Sea. Waipapa Group rocks now exposed at the surface cooled from maximum paleotemperatures of c. 250deg.C at an estimated rate of c. 180-36deg.C/m.y., involving substantial denudation

Shale Gas Royalties in New Brunswick: An Evaluation

In 2014, the government of New Brunswick implemented a new royalty regime for natural gas in the context of their regulatory review of shale gas. Advocates of shale gas stressed the additional government revenues that would result. However, the government provided no background documentation to explain their methodology or substantiate their claims. This study provides such estimates, utilizing a methodology that incorporates the intricacies of the New Brunswick system and assumptions drawn from economic and productivity analysis of the North American shale gas industry. Our study challenges previous revenue estimates and provides a transparent methodology to inform public policy.En 2014, le gouvernement du Nouveau Brunswick a mis en oeuvre un nouveau régime de redevances pour le gaz naturel dans le cadre de son examen réglementaire du gaz de schiste. Des défenseurs du gaz de schiste ont souligné les recettes publiques supplémentaires qui en résulteraient. Toutefois, le gouvernement n’a pas fourni de documentation de référence pour expliquer sa méthodologie ou étayer ses affirmations. La présente étude fournit de telles estimations, grâce à une méthodologie qui tient compte des complexités du système du Nouveau Brunswick et des hypothèses établies à partir de l’analyse de l’économie et de la productivité de l’industrie nord-américaine du gaz de schiste. Notre étude remet en question les dernières estimations des recettes et présente une méthodologie transparente permettant d’orienter les politiques publiques

Information theory explanation of the fluctuation theorem, maximum entropy production and self-organized criticality in non-equilibrium stationary states

Jaynes' information theory formalism of statistical mechanics is applied to the stationary states of open, non-equilibrium systems. The key result is the construction of the probability distribution for the underlying microscopic phase space trajectories. Three consequences of this result are then derived : the fluctuation theorem, the principle of maximum entropy production, and the emergence of self-organized criticality for flux-driven systems in the slowly-driven limit. The accumulating empirical evidence for these results lends support to Jaynes' formalism as a common predictive framework for equilibrium and non-equilibrium statistical mechanics.Comment: 21 pages, 0 figures, minor modifications, version to appear in J. Phys. A. (2003

Randomized multicentre pilot study of sacubitril/valsartan versus irbesartan in patients with chronic kidney disease: United Kingdom Heart and Renal Protection (HARP)- III—rationale, trial design and baseline data

BACKGROUND: Patients with chronic kidney disease (CKD) are at risk of progression to end-stage renal disease and cardiovascular disease. Data from other populations and animal experiments suggest that neprilysin inhibition (which augments the natriuretic peptide system) may reduce these risks, but clinical trials among patients with CKD are required to test this hypothesis. METHODS: UK Heart and Renal Protection III (HARP-III) is a multicentre, double-blind, randomized controlled trial comparing sacubitril/valsartan 97/103 mg two times daily (an angiotensin receptor-neprilysin inhibitor) with irbesartan 300 mg one time daily among 414 patients with CKD. Patients ≥18 years of age with an estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) of ≥45 but &lt;60 mL/min/1.73 m2 and urine albumin:creatinine ratio (uACR) &gt;20 mg/mmol or eGFR ≥20 but &lt;45 mL/min/1.73 m2 (regardless of uACR) were invited to be screened. Following a 4- to 7-week pre-randomization single-blind placebo run-in phase (during which any current renin-angiotensin system inhibitors were stopped), willing and eligible participants were randomly assigned either sacubitril/valsartan or irbesartan and followed-up for 12 months. The primary aim was to compare the effects of sacubitril/valsartan and irbesartan on measured GFR after 12 months of therapy. Important secondary outcomes include effects on albuminuria, change in eGFR over time and the safety and tolerability of sacubitril/valsartan in CKD. RESULTS: Between November 2014 and January 2016, 620 patients attended a screening visit and 566 (91%) entered the pre-randomization run-in phase. Of these, 414 (73%) participants were randomized (mean age 63 years; 72% male). The mean eGFR was 34.0 mL/min/1.73 m2 and the median uACR was 58.5 mg/mmol. CONCLUSIONS: UK HARP-III will provide important information on the short-term effects of sacubitril/valsartan on renal function, tolerability and safety among patients with CKD

Modelling the Health and Economic Impacts of Population-Wide Testing, Contact Tracing and Isolation (PTTI) Strategies for COVID-19 in the UK

Background: The COVID-19 epidemic in the UK has resulted in over 280,000 reported cases and over 40,000 deaths as of 5th June 2020. In the context of a slower increase in reported cases and deaths associated with COVID-19 over the last few weeks compared to earlier in the epidemic, the UK is starting to relax the physical restrictions (‘lockdown’) that have been imposed since 23 March 2020. This has been accompanied by the announcement of a strategy to test people for infection, trace contacts of those tested positive, and isolate positive diagnoses. While such policies are expected to be impactful, there is no conclusive evidence of which approach to this is likely to achieve the most appropriate balance between benefits and costs. This study combines mathematical and economic modelling to estimate the impact, costs, feasibility, and health and economic effects of different strategies. / Methods: We provide detailed description, impact, costing, and feasibility assessment of population-scale testing, tracing, and isolation strategies (PTTI). We estimate the impact of different PTTI strategies with a deterministic mathematical model for SARS-CoV-2 transmission that accurately captures tracing and isolation of contacts of individuals exposed, infectious, and diagnosed with the virus. We combine this with an economic model to project the mortality, intensive care, hospital, and non-hospital case outcomes, costs to the UK National Health Service, reduction in GDP, and intervention costs of each strategy. Model parameters are derived from publicly available data, and the model is calibrated to reported deaths associated with COVID-19. We modelled 31 scenarios in total (Panel 2). The first 18 comprised nine with ‘triggers’ (labelled with the -Trig suffix) for subsequent lockdown periods (>40,000 new infections per day) and lockdown releases (<10,000 new infections per day), and nine corresponding scenarios without triggers, namely: no large-scale PTTI (scenario 1); scale-up of PTTI to testing the whole population every week, with May–July 2020 lockdown release (scenario 2b), or delayed lockdown release until scale-up complete on 31 August 2020 (scenario 2a); these two scenarios with mandatory use of face coverings (scenarios 3a and 3b); and scenarios 2a, 2b, 3a, 3b replacing untargeted PTTI with testing of symptomatic people only (scenarios 4a, 4b, 4c, 4d). The final 13 scenarios looked at: whole population weekly testing to suppress the epidemic with lower tracing success (scenarios 3b-Trig00, 3b-Trig10, 3b-Trig20, 3b-Trig30) and switched to targeted testing after two months when it may suppress the epidemic (scenarios 3b-Trig00-2mo and 3b-Trig30-2mo), and targeted testing with lower tracing success (scenarios 4d-Trig10, 4dTrig20, 4d-Trig30, 4d-Trig40, 4d-Trig50, 4d-Trig60, 4d-Trig70). / Findings: Given that physical distancing measures have already been relaxed in the UK, scenario 4d-Trig (targeted testing of symptomatic people only, with a mandatory face coverings policy and subsequent lockdown triggered to enable PTTI to suppress the epidemic), is a strategy that will result in the fewest deaths (~52,000) and has the lowest intervention costs (~£8bn). The additional lockdown results in total reduction in GDP of ~£503bn, less than half the cost to the economy of subsequent lockdowns triggered in a scenario without PTTI (scenario 1-Trig, ~£1180bn reduction in GDP, ~105,000 deaths). In summer months, with lower cold and flu prevalence, approximately 75,000 symptomatic people per day need to be tested for this strategy to work, assuming 64% of their contacts are effectively traced (~80% traced with 80% success) within the infectious period (most within the first two days and nearly all by seven days) and all are isolated – including those without any symptoms – for 14 days. Untargeted testing of everyone every week, if it were feasible, may work without tracing, but at a higher cost (scenario 3b-Trig00). This cost could be reduced by switching to targeted testing after the epidemic is suppressed (scenario 3b-Trig30-2mo), though we note the epidemic could be suppressed with targeted testing itself providing tracing and isolation has at least a 32% success rate (scenario 4dTrig40). / Interpretation: PTTI strategies to suppress the COVID-19 epidemic within the context of a relaxation of lockdown will necessitate subsequent lockdowns to keep the epidemic suppressed during PTTI scale-up. Targeted testing of symptomatic people only can suppress the epidemic if accompanied by mandated use of face coverings. The feasibility of PTTI depends on sufficient capacity, capabilities, infrastructure and integrated systems to deliver it. The political and public acceptability of alternative scenarios for subsequent lockdowns needs to take account of crucial implications for employment, personal and national debt, education, population mental health and non-COVID-19 disease. Our model is able to incorporate additional scenarios as the situation evolves

“Excellence R Us”: university research and the fetishisation of excellence

The rhetoric of “excellence” is pervasive across the academy. It is used to refer to research outputs as well as researchers, theory and education, individuals and organisations, from art history to zoology. But does “excellence” actually mean anything? Does this pervasive narrative of “excellence” do any good? Drawing on a range of sources we interrogate “excellence” as a concept and find that it has no intrinsic meaning in academia. Rather it functions as a linguistic interchange mechanism. To investigate whether this linguistic function is useful we examine how the rhetoric of excellence combines with narratives of scarcity and competition to show that the hypercompetition that arises from the performance of “excellence” is completely at odds with the qualities of good research. We trace the roots of issues in reproducibility, fraud, and homophily to this rhetoric. But we also show that this rhetoric is an internal, and not primarily an external, imposition. We conclude by proposing an alternative rhetoric based on soundness and capacity-building. In the final analysis, it turns out that that “excellence” is not excellent. Used in its current unqualified form it is a pernicious and dangerous rhetoric that undermines the very foundations of good research and scholarship

Trials and tribulations of recruiting 2,000 older women onto a clinical trial investigating falls and fractures : vital D study

Background Randomised, placebo-controlled trials are needed to provide evidence demonstrating safe, effective interventions that reduce falls and fractures in the elderly. The quality of a clinical trial is dependent on successful recruitment of the target participant group. This paper documents the successes and failures of recruiting over 2,000 women aged at least 70 years and at higher risk of falls or fractures onto a placebo-controlled trial of six years duration. The characteristics of study participants at baseline are also described for this study.Methods The Vital D Study recruited older women identified at high risk of fracture through the use of an eligibility algorithm, adapted from identified risk factors for hip fracture. Participants were randomised to orally receive either 500,000 IU vitamin D3 (cholecalciferol) or placebo every autumn for five consecutive years. A variety of recruitment strategies were employed to attract potential participants.Results Of the 2,317 participants randomised onto the study, 74% (n = 1716/2317) were consented onto the study in the last five months of recruiting. This was largely due to the success of a targeted mail-out. Prior to this only 541 women were consented in the 18 months of recruiting. A total of 70% of all participants were recruited as a result of targeted mail-out. The response rate from the letters increased from 2 to 7% following revision of the material by a public relations company. Participant demographic or risk factor profile did not differ between those recruited by targeted mail-outs compared with other methods.Conclusion The most successful recruitment strategy was the targeted mail-out and the response rate was no higher in the local region where the study had extensive exposure through other recruiting strategies. The strategies that were labour-intensive and did not result in successful recruitment include the activities directed towards the GP medical centres. Comprehensive recruitment programs employ overlapping strategies simultaneously with ongoing assessment of recruitment rates. In our experience, and others direct mail-outs work best although rights to privacy must be respected. <br /