Prediction models for development of retinopathy in people with type 2 diabetes:systematic review and external validation in a Dutch primary care setting

Aims/hypothesis: The aims of this study were to identify all published prognostic models predicting retinopathy risk applicable to people with type 2 diabetes, to assess their quality and accuracy, and to validate their predictive accuracy in a head-to-head comparison using an independent type 2 diabetes cohort. Methods: A systematic search was performed in PubMed and Embase in December 2019. Studies that met the following criteria were included: (1) the model was applicable in type 2 diabetes; (2) the outcome was retinopathy; and (3) follow-up was more than 1 year. Screening, data extraction (using the checklist for critical appraisal and data extraction for systemic reviews of prediction modelling studies [CHARMS]) and risk of bias assessment (by prediction model risk of bias assessment tool [PROBAST]) were performed independently by two reviewers. Selected models were externally validated in the large Hoorn Diabetes Care System (DCS) cohort in the Netherlands. Retinopathy risk was calculated using baseline data and compared with retinopathy incidence over 5 years. Calibration after intercept adjustment and discrimination (Harrell’s C statistic) were assessed. Results: Twelve studies were included in the systematic review, reporting on 16 models. Outcomes ranged from referable retinopathy to blindness. Discrimination was reported in seven studies with C statistics ranging from 0.55 (95% CI 0.54, 0.56) to 0.84 (95% CI 0.78, 0.88). Five studies reported on calibration. Eight models could be compared head-to-head in the DCS cohort (N = 10,715). Most of the models underestimated retinopathy risk. Validating the models against different severities of retinopathy, C statistics ranged from 0.51 (95% CI 0.49, 0.53) to 0.89 (95% CI 0.88, 0.91). Conclusions/interpretation: Several prognostic models can accurately predict retinopathy risk in a population-based type 2 diabetes cohort. Most of the models include easy-to-measure predictors enhancing their applicability. Tailoring retinopathy screening frequency based on accurate risk predictions may increase the efficiency and cost-effectiveness of diabetic retinopathy care. Registration: PROSPERO registration ID CRD42018089122

DNA methylation as a mediator of the association between prenatal adversity and risk factors for metabolic disease in adulthood

Although it is assumed that epigenetic mechanisms, such as changes in DNA methylation (DNAm), underlie the relationship between adverse intrauterine conditions and adult metabolic health, evidence from human studies remains scarce. Therefore, we evaluated whether DNAm in whole blood mediated the association between prenatal famine exposure and metabolic health in 422 individuals exposed to famine in utero and 463 (sibling) controls. We implemented a two-step analysis, namely, a genome-wide exploration across 342,596 cytosine-phosphate-guanine dinucleotides (CpGs) for potential mediators of the association between prenatal famine exposure and adult body mass index (BMI), serum triglycerides (TG), or glucose concentrations, which was followed by formal mediation analysis. DNAm mediated the association of prenatal famine exposure with adult BMI and TG but not with glucose. DNAm at PIM3 (cg09349128), a gene involved in energy metabolism, mediated 13.4% [95% confidence interval (CI), 5 to 28%] of the association between famine exposure and BMI. DNAm at six CpGs, including TXNIP (cg19693031), influencing β cell function, and ABCG1 (cg07397296), affecting lipid metabolism, together mediated 80% (95% CI, 38.5 to 100%) of the association between famine exposure and TG. Analyses restricted to those exposed to famine during early gestation identified additional CpGs mediating the relationship with TG near PFKFB3 (glycolysis) and METTL8 (adipogenesis). DNAm at the CpGs involved was associated with gene expression in an external data set and correlated with DNAm levels in fat depots in additional postmortem data. Our data are consistent with the hypothesis that epigenetic mechanisms mediate the influence of transient adverse environmental factors in early life on long-term metabolic health. The specific mechanism awaits elucidation

IgG N-glycans are associated with prevalent and incident complications of type 2 diabetes

Aims/Hypothesis:Inflammation is important in the development of type 2 diabetes complications. The N-glycosylation of IgG influences its role in inflammation. To date, the association of plasma IgG N-glycosylation with type 2 diabetes complications has not been extensively investigated. We hypothesised that N-glycosylation of IgG may be related to the development of complications of type 2 diabetes. Methods: In three independent type 2 diabetes cohorts, plasma IgG N-glycosylation was measured using ultra performance liquid chromatography (DiaGene n = 1815, GenodiabMar n = 640) and mass spectrometry (Hoorn Diabetes Care Study n = 1266). We investigated the associations of IgG N-glycosylation (fucosylation, galactosylation, sialylation and bisection) with incident and prevalent nephropathy, retinopathy and macrovascular disease using Cox- and logistic regression, followed by meta-analyses. The models were adjusted for age and sex and additionally for clinical risk factors. Results: IgG galactosylation was negatively associated with prevalent and incident nephropathy and macrovascular disease after adjustment for clinical risk factors. Sialylation was negatively associated with incident diabetic nephropathy after adjustment for clinical risk factors. For incident retinopathy, similar associations were found for galactosylation, adjusted for age and sex. Conclusions: We showed that IgG N-glycosylation, particularly galactosylation and to a lesser extent sialylation, is associated with a higher prevalence and future development of macro- and microvascular complications of diabetes. These findings indicate the predictive potential of IgG N-glycosylation in diabetes complications and should be analysed further in additional large cohorts to obtain the power to solidify these conclusions.</p

Performance of prediction models for nephropathy in people with type 2 diabetes:systematic review and external validation study

OBJECTIVES To identify and assess the quality and accuracy of prognostic models for nephropathy and to validate these models in external cohorts of people with type 2 diabetes. DESIGN Systematic review and external validation. DATA SOURCES PubMed and Embase. ELIGIBILITY CRITERIA Studies describing the development of a model to predict the risk of nephropathy, applicable to people with type 2 diabetes. METHODS Screening, data extraction, and risk of bias assessment were done in duplicate. Eligible models were externally validated in the Hoorn Diabetes Care System (DCS) cohort (n=11 450) for the same outcomes for which they were developed. Risks of nephropathy were calculated and compared with observed risk over 2, 5, and 10 years of follow-up. Model performance was assessed based on intercept adjusted calibration and discrimination (Harrell's C statistic). RESULTS 41 studies included in the systematic review reported 64 models, 46 of which were developed in a population with diabetes and 18 in the general population including diabetes as a predictor. The predicted outcomes included albuminuria, diabetic kidney disease, chronic kidney disease (general population), and end stage renal disease. The reported apparent discrimination of the 46 models varied considerably across the different predicted outcomes, from 0.60 (95% confidence interval 0.56 to 0.64) to 0.99 (not available) for the models developed in a diabetes population and from 0.59 (not available) to 0.96 (0.95 to 0.97) for the models developed in the general population. Calibration was reported in 31 of the 41 studies, and the models were generally well calibrated. 21 of the 64 retrieved models were externally validated in the Hoorn DCS cohort for predicting risk of albuminuria, diabetic kidney disease, and chronic kidney disease, with considerable variation in performance across prediction horizons and models. For all three outcomes, however, at least two models had C statistics >0.8, indicating excellent discrimination. In a secondary external validation in GoDARTS (Genetics of Diabetes Audit and Research in Tayside Scotland), models developed for diabetic kidney disease outperformed those for chronic kidney disease. Models were generally well calibrated across all three prediction horizons. CONCLUSIONS This study identified multiple prediction models to predict albuminuria, diabetic kidney disease, chronic kidney disease, and end stage renal disease. In the external validation, discrimination and calibration for albuminuria, diabetic kidney disease, and chronic kidney disease varied considerably across prediction horizons and models. For each outcome, however, specific models showed good discrimination and calibration across the three prediction horizons, with clinically accessible predictors, making them applicable in a clinical setting. SYSTEMATIC REVIEW REGISTRATION PROSPERO CRD42020192831.Molecular Epidemiolog

An omics-based machine learning approach to predict diabetes progression:a RHAPSODY study

Aims/hypothesis: People with type 2 diabetes are heterogeneous in their disease trajectory, with some progressing more quickly to insulin initiation than others. Although classical biomarkers such as age, HbA 1c and diabetes duration are associated with glycaemic progression, it is unclear how well such variables predict insulin initiation or requirement and whether newly identified markers have added predictive value. Methods: In two prospective cohort studies as part of IMI-RHAPSODY, we investigated whether clinical variables and three types of molecular markers (metabolites, lipids, proteins) can predict time to insulin requirement using different machine learning approaches (lasso, ridge, GRridge, random forest). Clinical variables included age, sex, HbA 1c, HDL-cholesterol and C-peptide. Models were run with unpenalised clinical variables (i.e. always included in the model without weights) or penalised clinical variables, or without clinical variables. Model development was performed in one cohort and the model was applied in a second cohort. Model performance was evaluated using Harrel’s C statistic. Results: Of the 585 individuals from the Hoorn Diabetes Care System (DCS) cohort, 69 required insulin during follow-up (1.0–11.4 years); of the 571 individuals in the Genetics of Diabetes Audit and Research in Tayside Scotland (GoDARTS) cohort, 175 required insulin during follow-up (0.3–11.8 years). Overall, the clinical variables and proteins were selected in the different models most often, followed by the metabolites. The most frequently selected clinical variables were HbA 1c (18 of the 36 models, 50%), age (15 models, 41.2%) and C-peptide (15 models, 41.2%). Base models (age, sex, BMI, HbA 1c) including only clinical variables performed moderately in both the DCS discovery cohort (C statistic 0.71 [95% CI 0.64, 0.79]) and the GoDARTS replication cohort (C 0.71 [95% CI 0.69, 0.75]). A more extensive model including HDL-cholesterol and C-peptide performed better in both cohorts (DCS, C 0.74 [95% CI 0.67, 0.81]; GoDARTS, C 0.73 [95% CI 0.69, 0.77]). Two proteins, lactadherin and proto-oncogene tyrosine-protein kinase receptor, were most consistently selected and slightly improved model performance. Conclusions/interpretation: Using machine learning approaches, we show that insulin requirement risk can be modestly well predicted by predominantly clinical variables. Inclusion of molecular markers improves the prognostic performance beyond that of clinical variables by up to 5%. Such prognostic models could be useful for identifying people with diabetes at high risk of progressing quickly to treatment intensification. Data availability: Summary statistics of lipidomic, proteomic and metabolomic data are available from a Shiny dashboard at https://rhapdata-app.vital-it.ch. Graphical Abstract: (Figure presented.).</p

DNA methylation as a mediator of the association between prenatal adversity and risk factors for metabolic disease in adulthood

Although it is assumed that epigenetic mechanisms, such as changes in DNA methylation (DNAm), underlie the relationship between adverse intrauterine conditions and adult metabolic health, evidence from human studies remains scarce. Therefore, we evaluated whether DNAm in whole blood mediated the association between prenatal famine exposure and metabolic health in 422 individuals exposed to famine in utero and 463 (sibling) controls. We implemented a two-step analysis, namely, a genome-wide exploration across 342, 596 cytosine-phosphate-guanine dinucleotides (CpGs) for potential mediators of the association between prenatal famine exposure and adult body mass index (BMI), serum triglycerides (TG), or glucose concentrations, which was followed by formalmediation analysis.DNAm mediated the association of prenatal famine exposure with adult BMI and TG but not with glucose. DNAm at PIM3 (cg09349128), a gene involved in energy metabolism, mediated 13.4% [95% confidence interval (CI), 5 to 28%] of the association between famine exposure and BMI. DNAm at six CpGs, including TXNIP (cg19693031), influencing b cell function, and ABCG1 (cg07397296), affecting lipid metabolism, together mediated 80% (95% CI, 38.5 to 100%) of the association between famine exposure and TG. Analyses restricted to those exposed to famine during early gestation identified additional CpGs mediating the relationship with TG near PFKFB3 (glycolysis) and METTL8 (adipogenesis). DNAm at the CpGs involved was associated with gene expression in an external data set and correlated with DNAm levels in fat depots in additional postmortem data. Our data are consistent with the hypothesis that epigenetic mechanisms mediate the influence of transient adverse environmental factors in early life on long-termmetabolic health. The specific mechanism awaits elucidation.</p

Genome-wide meta-analysis identifies genetic variants associated with glycemic response to sulfonylureas

OBJECTIVE: Sulfonylureas, the first available drugs for the management of type 2 diabetes, remain widely prescribed today. However, there exists significant variability in glycemic response to treatment. We aimed to establish heritability of sulfonylurea response and identify genetic variants and interacting treatments associated with HbA(1c) reduction. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS: As an initiative of the Metformin Genetics Plus Consortium (MetGen Plus) and the DIabetes REsearCh on patient straTification (DIRECT) consortium, 5,485 White Europeans with type 2 diabetes treated with sulfonylureas were recruited from six referral centers in Europe and North America. We first estimated heritability using the generalized restricted maximum likelihood approach and then undertook genome-wide association studies of glycemic response to sulfonylureas measured as HbA(1c) reduction after 12 months of therapy followed by meta-analysis. These results were supported by acute glipizide challenge in humans who were naïve to type 2 diabetes medications, cis expression quantitative trait loci (eQTL), and functional validation in cellular models. Finally, we examined for possible drug-drug-gene interactions. RESULTS: After establishing that sulfonylurea response is heritable (mean ± SEM 37 ± 11%), we identified two independent loci near the GXYLT1 and SLCO1B1 genes associated with HbA(1c) reduction at a genome-wide scale (P < 5 × 10(−8)). The C allele at rs1234032, near GXYLT1, was associated with 0.14% (1.5 mmol/mol), P = 2.39 × 10(−8)), lower reduction in HbA(1c). Similarly, the C allele was associated with higher glucose trough levels (β = 1.61, P = 0.005) in healthy volunteers in the SUGAR-MGH given glipizide (N = 857). In 3,029 human whole blood samples, the C allele is a cis eQTL for increased expression of GXYLT1 (β = 0.21, P = 2.04 × 10(−58)). The C allele of rs10770791, in an intronic region of SLCO1B1, was associated with 0.11% (1.2 mmol/mol) greater reduction in HbA(1c) (P = 4.80 × 10(−8)). In 1,183 human liver samples, the C allele at rs10770791 is a cis eQTL for reduced SLCO1B1 expression (P = 1.61 × 10(−7)), which, together with functional studies in cells expressing SLCO1B1, supports a key role for hepatic SLCO1B1 (encoding OATP1B1) in regulation of sulfonylurea transport. Further, a significant interaction between statin use and SLCO1B1 genotype was observed (P = 0.001). In statin nonusers, C allele homozygotes at rs10770791 had a large absolute reduction in HbA(1c) (0.48 ± 0.12% [5.2 ± 1.26 mmol/mol]), equivalent to that associated with initiation of a dipeptidyl peptidase 4 inhibitor. CONCLUSIONS: We have identified clinically important genetic effects at genome-wide levels of significance, and important drug-drug-gene interactions, which include commonly prescribed statins. With increasing availability of genetic data embedded in clinical records these findings will be important in prescribing glucose-lowering drugs

Intestinal Obstruction Syndromes in Cystic Fibrosis: Meconium Ileus, Distal Intestinal Obstruction Syndrome, and Constipation

Meconium ileus at birth, distal intestinal obstruction syndrome (DIOS), and constipation are an interrelated group of intestinal obstruction syndromes with a variable severity of obstruction that occurs in cystic fibrosis patients. Long-term follow-up studies show that today meconium ileus is not a risk factor for impaired nutritional status, pulmonary function, or survival. DIOS and constipation are frequently seen in cystic fibrosis patients, especially later in life; genetic, dietary, and other associations have been explored. Diagnosis of DIOS is based on suggestive symptoms, with a right lower quadrant mass confirmed on abdominal radiography, whereas symptoms of constipation are milder and of longer standing. In DIOS, early aggressive laxative treatment with oral laxatives (polyethylene glycol) or intestinal lavage with balanced osmotic electrolyte solution and rehydration is required, which now makes the need for surgical interventions rare. Constipation can generally be well controlled with polyethylene glycol maintenance treatment

Distinct molecular signatures of clinical clusters in people with type 2 diabetes:an IMI-RHAPSODY study

Type 2 diabetes is a multifactorial disease with multiple underlying aetiologies. To address this heterogeneity a previous study clustered people with diabetes into five diabetes subtypes. The aim of the current study is to investigate the aetiology of these clusters by comparing their molecular signatures. In three independent cohorts, in total 15,940 individuals were clustered based on five clinical characteristics. In a subset, genetic- (N=12828), metabolomic- (N=2945), lipidomic- (N=2593) and proteomic (N=1170) data were obtained in plasma. In each datatype each cluster was compared with the other four clusters as the reference. The insulin resistant cluster showed the most distinct molecular signature, with higher BCAAs, DAG and TAG levels and aberrant protein levels in plasma enriched for proteins in the intracellular PI3K/Akt pathway. The obese cluster showed higher cytokines. A subset of the mild diabetes cluster with high HDL showed the most beneficial molecular profile with opposite effects to those seen in the insulin resistant cluster. This study showed that clustering people with type 2 diabetes can identify underlying molecular mechanisms related to pancreatic islets, liver, and adipose tissue metabolism. This provides novel biological insights into the diverse aetiological processes that would not be evident when type 2 diabetes is viewed as a homogeneous diseas