Intensive care unit (ICU)-acquired bacteraemia and ICU mortality and discharge:Addressing time-varying confounding using appropriate methodology

Background: Studies often ignore time-varying confounding or may use inappropriate methodology to adjust for time-varying confounding. Aim: To estimate the effect of intensive care unit (ICU)-acquired bacteraemia on ICU mortality and discharge using appropriate methodology. Methods: Marginal structural models with inverse probability weighting were used to estimate the ICU mortality and discharge associated with ICU-acquired bacteraemia among patients who stayed more than two days at the general ICU of a London teaching hospital and remained bacteraemia-free during those first two days. For comparison, the same associations were evaluated with (i) a conventional Cox model, adjusting only for baseline confounders and (ii) a Cox model adjusting for baseline and time-varying confounders. Findings: Using the marginal structural model with inverse probability weighting, bacteraemia was associated with an increase in ICU mortality (cause-specific hazard ratio (CSHR): 1.29; 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.02-1.63)and a decrease in discharge (CSHR: 0.52; 95% CI: 0.45-0.60). By 60 days, among patients still in the ICU after two days and without prior bacteraemia, 8.0% of ICU deaths could be prevented by preventing all ICU-acquired bacteraemia cases. The conventional Cox model adjusting for time-varying confounders gave substantially different results [for ICU mortality, CSHR: 1.08 (95% CI: 0.88-1.32); for discharge, CSHR: 0.68 (95% CI: 0.60-0.77)]. Conclusion: In this study, even after adjusting for the timing of acquiring bacteraemia and time-varying confounding using inverse probability weighting for marginal structura

Impact of interventions to reduce nosocomial transmission of SARS-CoV-2 in English NHS Trusts: a computational modelling study

Background: Prior to September 2021, 55,000–90,000 hospital inpatients in England were identified as having a potentially nosocomial SARS-CoV-2 infection. This includes cases that were likely missed due to pauci- or asymptomatic infection. Further, high numbers of healthcare workers (HCWs) are thought to have been infected, and there is evidence that some of these cases may also have been nosocomially linked, with both HCW to HCW and patient to HCW transmission being reported. From the start of the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic interventions in hospitals such as testing patients on admission and universal mask wearing were introduced to stop spread within and between patient and HCW populations, the effectiveness of which are largely unknown. Materials/methods: Using an individual-based model of within-hospital transmission, we estimated the contribution of individual interventions (together and in combination) to the effectiveness of the overall package of interventions implemented in English hospitals during the COVID-19 pandemic. A panel of experts in infection prevention and control informed intervention choice and helped ensure the model reflected implementation in practice. Model parameters and associated uncertainty were derived using national and local data, literature review and formal elicitation of expert opinion. We simulated scenarios to explore how many nosocomial infections might have been seen in patients and HCWs if interventions had not been implemented. We simulated the time period from March-2020 to July-2022 encompassing different strains and multiple doses of vaccination. Results: Modelling results suggest that in a scenario without inpatient testing, infection prevention and control measures, and reductions in occupancy and visitors, the number of patients developing a nosocomial SARS-CoV-2 infection could have been twice as high over the course of the pandemic, and over 600,000 HCWs could have been infected in the first wave alone. Isolation of symptomatic HCWs and universal masking by HCWs were the most effective interventions for preventing infections in both patient and HCW populations. Model findings suggest that collectively the interventions introduced over the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic in England averted 400,000 (240,000 – 500,000) infections in inpatients and 410,000 (370,000 – 450,000) HCW infections. Conclusions: Interventions to reduce the spread of nosocomial infections have varying impact, but the package of interventions implemented in England significantly reduced nosocomial transmission to both patients and HCWs over the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic

Duration of antibiotic treatment for common infections in English primary care: cross sectional analysis and comparison with guidelines

Objectives: To evaluate antibiotic therapy durations for common infections in English primary care and to compare this with guidelines. Design: Cross-sectional study. Setting: General practices contributing to The Health Improvement Network database, 2013-2015. Participants: 931,015 consultations that resulted in an antibiotic prescription for one of the following indications: acute sinusitis, acute sore throat, acute cough and bronchitis, pneumonia, acute exacerbation of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), acute otitis media, acute cystitis, prostatitis, pyelonephritis, cellulitis, impetigo, scarlet fever and gastroenteritis. Main outcome measures: The main outcomes were the percentage of antibiotic prescriptions with a duration exceeding the guideline recommendation and the total number of days beyond the recommended duration for each indication. Results: The most common reasons for the prescriptions were patients consulting with acute bronchitis and cough (386,972), acute sore throat (239,231), acute otitis media (83,054), and acute sinusitis (76,683). Antibiotic treatments for upper respiratory indications and acute bronchitis accounted for more than two thirds of the total prescriptions considered, and ≥80% of these treatment courses exceeded guideline recommendations. Notable exceptions were acute sinusitis, where only 9.6% (95% CI 9.4 to 9.9%) of prescriptions exceeded 7 days and acute sore throat where only 2.1% (95% CI 2.0 to 2.1) exceed 10 days (recent guidance recommends 5 days). More than half of antibiotic prescriptions were longer than guidelines recommend for acute cystitis among females (54.6%, 95% CI 54.1 to 55.0%). The percentage of antibiotic prescriptions exceeding the recommended duration was lower for most non-respiratory infections. For the 931,015 included consultations resulting in antibiotic prescriptions, approximately 1.3 million days were beyond the durations recommended by the guidelines. Conclusion: For most common infections treated in primary care, a substantial proportion of antibiotic prescriptions have durations exceeding those recommended in guidelines. Substantial reductions in antibiotic exposure can be accomplished by aligning antibiotic prescription durations with guidelines

Reconstructing transmission trees for communicable diseases using densely sampled genetic data.

Whole genome sequencing of pathogens from multiple hosts in an epidemic offers the potential to investigate who infected whom with unparalleled resolution, potentially yielding important insights into disease dynamics and the impact of control measures. We considered disease outbreaks in a setting with dense genomic sampling, and formulated stochastic epidemic models to investigate person-to-person transmission, based on observed genomic and epidemiological data. We constructed models in which the genetic distance between sampled genotypes depends on the epidemiological relationship between the hosts. A data augmented Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm was used to sample over the transmission trees, providing a posterior probability for any given transmission route. We investigated the predictive performance of our methodology using simulated data, demonstrating high sensitivity and specificity, particularly for rapidly mutating pathogens with low transmissibility. We then analyzed data collected during an outbreak of methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus in a hospital, identifying probable transmission routes and estimating epidemiological parameters. Our approach overcomes limitations of previous methods, providing a framework with the flexibility to allow for unobserved infection times, multiple independent introductions of the pathogen, and within-host genetic diversity, as well as allowing forward simulation.Funding received from the following: The European Community [Mastering Hospital Antimicrobial Resistance (MOSAR) network contract LSHP-CT-2007-037941]. The National Institute of General Medical Sciences of the National Institutes of Health under award number U54GM088558. The UK Medical Research Council (Unit Programme number U105260566). The UKCRC Translational Infection Research Initiative (MRC Grant number G1000803) and Public Health England. The Medical Research Council and Department for International Development (Grant number MR/K006924/1). The Mahidol Oxford Tropical Medicine Research Unit is part of the Wellcome Trust Major Overseas Programme in SE Asia (Grant number 106698/Z/14/Z).This is the final version of the article. It first appeared from the Institute of Mathematical Statistics via http://dx.doi.org/10.1214/15-AOAS89

Galaxy And Mass Assembly (GAMA) : refining the local galaxy merger rate using morphological information

KRVS acknowledges the Science and Technology Facilities Council (STFC) for providing funding for this project, as well as the Government of Catalonia for a research travel grant (ref. 2010 BE-00268) to begin this project at the University of Nottingham. PN acknowledges the support of the Royal Society through the award of a University Research Fellowship and the European Research Council, through receipt of a Starting Grant (DEGAS-259586).We use the Galaxy And Mass Assembly (GAMA) survey to measure the local Universe mass-dependent merger fraction and merger rate using galaxy pairs and the CAS (concentration, asymmetry, and smoothness) structural method, which identifies highly asymmetric merger candidate galaxies. Our goals are to determine which types of mergers produce highly asymmetrical galaxies and to provide a new measurement of the local galaxy major merger rate. We examine galaxy pairs at stellar mass limits down to M* = 108 M⊙ with mass ratios of 4:1) the lower mass companion becomes highly asymmetric, whereas the larger galaxy is much less affected. The fraction of highly asymmetric paired galaxies which have a major merger companion is highest for the most massive galaxies and drops progressively with decreasing mass. We calculate that the mass-dependent major merger fraction is fairly constant at ∼1.3–2 per cent within 109.5 < M* < 1011.5 M⊙, and increases to ∼4 per cent at lower masses. When the observability time-scales are taken into consideration, the major merger rate is found to approximately triple over the mass range we consider. The total comoving volume major merger rate over the range 108.0 < M* < 1011.5 M⊙ is (1.2 ± 0.5) × 10−3 h370 Mpc−3 Gyr−1.Publisher PDFPeer reviewe

The evolution of community peer support values: reflections from three UK mental health project teams: The McPin peer support evaluation writing collaborative

OBJECTIVE: To explore emergent values for community-based peer support in three projects and use of peer research methodology. BACKGROUND: Peer support refers to the support people with shared lived experiences provide to each other. Its roots are in the civil rights movement, providing alternatives to clinical treatments. This method of support is delivered in different settings, with varying degrees of structure. In this paper, it includes shared experience of mental health issues. METHODS: We reviewed interview data from two evaluations and one development project - mental health (n = 69), women-only (n = 40), and maternal mental health (n = 24), respectively. Each project used peer research methods. Peer support values from each project were compared, along with reflections from mostly peer researchers who worked on them (n = 11). RESULTS: Six peer support values emerged and were found to be identifiable and applicable in different contexts. Decisions on facilitation and leadership varied across projects and generated some concerns over professionalisation, including non-peer leadership. Frameworks were viewed as broadly useful, but peer support is heterogenous, and peer researchers were concerned about over-rigid application of guidance. DISCUSSION: We propose caution applying frameworks for peer support. Values must remain flexible and peer-led, evolving in new contexts such as COVID-19. Evaluators have a responsibility to consider any potentially negative consequences of their work and mitigate them. This means ensuring research outputs are useful to the peer support community, and knowledge production is based upon methodologies, such as peer research, that complement and are consistent with the values of peer support itself

Estimating the Hospital Burden of Norovirus-Associated Gastroenteritis in England and Its Opportunity Costs for Nonadmitted Patients.

Background: Norovirus places a substantial burden on healthcare systems, arising from infected patients, disease outbreaks, beds kept unoccupied for infection control, and staff absences due to infection. In settings with high rates of bed occupancy, opportunity costs arise from patients who cannot be admitted due to beds being unavailable. With several treatments and vaccines against norovirus in development, quantifying the expected economic burden is timely. Methods: The number of inpatients with norovirus-associated gastroenteritis in England was modeled using infectious and noninfectious gastrointestinal Hospital Episode Statistics codes and laboratory reports of gastrointestinal pathogens collected at Public Health England. The excess length of stay from norovirus was estimated with a multistate model and local outbreak data. Unoccupied bed-days and staff absences were estimated from national outbreak surveillance. The burden was valued conventionally using accounting expenditures and wages, which we contrasted to the opportunity costs from forgone patients using a novel methodology. Results: Between July 2013 and June 2016, 17.7% (95% confidence interval [CI], 15.6%‒21.6%) of primary and 23.8% (95% CI, 20.6%‒29.9%) of secondary gastrointestinal diagnoses were norovirus attributable. Annually, the estimated median 290000 (interquartile range, 282000‒297000) occupied and unoccupied bed-days used for norovirus displaced 57800 patients. Conventional costs for the National Health Service reached £107.6 million; the economic burden approximated to £297.7 million and a loss of 6300 quality-adjusted life-years annually. Conclusions: In England, norovirus is now the second-largest contributor of the gastrointestinal hospital burden. With the projected impact being greater than previously estimated, improved capture of relevant opportunity costs seems imperative for diseases such as norovirus

Automated virtual reality cognitive therapy for people with psychosis: Protocol for a qualitative investigation using peer research methods

BACKGROUND: Many people with psychosis experience difficulties in everyday social situations. Anxiety can make life challenging, leading to withdrawal. Cognitive therapy, using active in vivo learning, enables people to overcome fears. These treatments are not readily available to people with psychosis. Automated virtual reality (VR) therapy is a potential route to increase accessibility. The gameChange automated VR cognitive therapy is designed to help people overcome anxious avoidance and build confidence in everyday social situations. A virtual coach guides the person through the treatment. Understanding user experience is key to facilitating future implementation. Peer research methods, in which people with lived experience of the issues being studied are involved in collecting and analyzing data, may be useful in developing this understanding. This encourages researchers to draw on their lived experience to explore participant perspectives and co-create knowledge. OBJECTIVE: The primary objective is to use a peer research approach to explore the participant experience of a novel automated VR therapy for anxious social avoidance. This includes understanding (1) the experience of anxious social avoidance in people with psychosis, (2) the experience of the gameChange automated VR cognitive therapy, and (3) any potential impact of the therapy in people’s lives. This will inform future implementation strategies. The secondary objective is to explore how peer research can be used to co-create knowledge. METHODS: Semistructured interviews will be conducted with approximately 25 people with psychosis participating in the gameChange trial (ISRCTN17308399). Participants will be recruited from the five trial centers based in National Health Service mental health trusts across England. Interviews will be conducted by two researchers. One is a peer researcher with similar lived experience to the trial participants. The other has lived experiences of mental health issues that do not directly overlap with those of the trial participants. Interview questions will focus on an individual’s experience of anxious social avoidance, experiences of participating in the gameChange VR therapy, and any changes or impact following therapy. The interview schedule was developed in collaboration with the gameChange Lived Experience Advisory Panel (LEAP), comprising 10 project advisors with lived experience of psychosis. Interpretative phenomenological analysis and template analysis will be used to explore individual accounts. The LEAP will contribute to the analysis. RESULTS: Data collection will be conducted from April to September 2021, and analysis will be conducted from June to October 2021. As of September 28, 2021, 20 participants had been interviewed, and coding is underway. CONCLUSIONS: The study, employing a peer research approach, may provide a unique insight into the experiences of anxious social avoidance in people with psychosis and its treatment using automated VR therapy. This will inform potential future implementation of VR automated therapies in mental health services. INTERNATIONAL REGISTERED REPORT IDENTIFIER (IRRID): DERR1-10.2196/3174

Beginning to explore the experience of managing a direct payment for someone with dementia: The perspectives of suitable people and adult social care practitioners

Following legal improvements made around mental capacity together with the Health and Social Care Act, it is now possible for a direct payment to be paid to a 'Suitable Person' to manage on someone's behalf to purchase directly care and support services. People with dementia are a key group affected by this change in England of adult social care. We interviewed nine social care practitioners and seven Suitable People for people with dementia across five English local authorities to begin to examine their experiences of this new method of social care provision. Findings from thematic analyses suggest positive outcomes and multiple beneficiaries, but some challenges: potentially inappropriate processes, support planning, divergence in attitudes towards care and support outcomes. Implications for practice include obfuscation of recipients' and Suitable People's best interests and supporting practitioners to explore fully clients' aspirations for care and support