Reconciling multiple counterfactuals when evaluating biodiversity conservation impact in social-ecological systems

When evaluating the impact of a biodiversity conservation intervention, a ‘counterfactual’ is needed, as true experimental controls are typically unavailable. Counterfactuals are possible alternative system trajectories in the absence of an intervention and comparing observed outcomes against the chosen counterfactual allows the impact (change attributable to the intervention) to be determined. Since counterfactuals are hypothetical scenarios, and by definition never occur, they must be estimated. Sometimes there may be many plausible counterfactuals, given that they can include multiple drivers of biodiversity change, and be defined on a range of spatial or temporal scales. Here we posit that, by definition, conservation interventions always take place in social-ecological systems (SES; ecological systems integrated with human actors). Evaluating the impact of an intervention within an SES therefore means taking into account the counterfactuals assumed by different human actors. Use of different counterfactuals by different actors will give rise to perceived differences in the impacts of interventions, which may lead to disagreement about its success or the effectiveness of the underlying approach. Despite that there are biophysical biodiversity trends, it is often true that no single counterfactual is definitively the ‘right one’ for conservation assessment, so multiple evaluations of intervention efficacy could be considered justifiable. Therefore, we propose the need to calculate a quantity termed the sum of perceived differences, which captures the range of impact estimates associated with different actors within a given SES. The sum of perceived differences gives some indication how closely actors within an SES agree on the impacts of an intervention. We illustrate the concept of perceived differences using a set of global, national and regional case studies. We discuss options for minimising the sum, drawing upon literatures from conservation science, psychology, behavioural economics, management and finance

Fault interactions and reactivation within a normal-fault network at Milne Point, Alaska

A normal-fault network from Milne Point, Alaska, is investigated focusing on characterizing geometry, displacement, strain, and different fault interactions. The network, constrained from three-dimensional seismic reflection data, comprises two generations of faults: Cenozoic north-northeast–trending faults and Jurassic west-northwest–trending faults, which highly compartmentalize Upper Triassic to Lower Cretaceous reservoirs. The west-northwest–trending faults are influenced by a similarly oriented underlying structural grain. This influence is characterized by increases in throw on several faults, strain localization, reorientation of faults and an increase in linkage maturity.Reconstructing fault plane geometries and mapping spatial variations in throw identified key characteristic features in their interactions and reactivation of pre-existing structures. Faults are divided into isolated, abutting, and splaying faults. Isolated faults exhibit a range of displacement profiles depending on the degree of restriction at fault tips. Fault splays accommodate step-like decreases in throw along larger main faults with a throw maximum at the intersection with the main fault. Throw profiles of abutting faults are divided into two groups: early stage abutting faults with throw minima at both the isolated and abutting tips, and developed abutting faults with throw maxima near the abutting tip.Developed abutting faults accumulate throw after initial abutment, locally reactivating and transferring throw onto the pre-existing fault. Two abutting faults can link kinematically by reactivating a segment of the pre-existing fault forming a trailing fault. The motion sense of the trailing fault can be synthetic or antithetic to the reactivated pre-existing fault, producing increases or decreases in the throw of the pre-existing fault, respectivel

Spatial Representations Are Specific to Different Domains of Knowledge

There is evidence that many abstract concepts are represented cognitively in a spatial format. However, it is unknown whether similar spatial processes are employed in different knowledge domains, or whether individuals exhibit similar spatial profiles within and across domains. This research investigated similarities in spatial representation in two knowledge domains – mathematics and music. Sixty-one adults completed analogous number magnitude and pitch discrimination tasks: the Spatial-Numerical Association of Response Codes and Spatial-Musical Association of Response Codes tasks. Subgroups of individuals with different response patterns were identified through cluster analyses. For both the mathematical and musical tasks, approximately half of the participants showed the expected spatial judgment effect when explicitly cued to focus on the spatial properties of the stimuli. Despite this, performances on the two tasks were largely independent. Consistent with previous research, the study provides evidence for the spatial representation of number and pitch in the majority of individuals. However, there was little evidence to support the claim that the same spatial representation processes underpin mathematical and musical judgments

Identification of a major rif transcript common to gametocytes and sporozoites of Plasmodium falciparum

Background: The Plasmodium falciparum parasite is transmitted in its sexual gametocyte stage from man to mosquito and as asexual sporozoites from mosquito to man. Developing gametocytes sequester preferentially in the bone marrow, but mature stage gametocytes are released to the bloodstream. Sexual stage parasite surface proteins are of interest as candidate target antigens for transmission blocking vaccines.Methods: In this study, the transcript profiles of rif and var genes, known to encode surface antigens in asexual blood stage parasites, were investigated at different stages of 3D7/NF54 gametocytogenesis and in sporozoites.Results: Gametocytes exhibited a rif transcript profile unlinked to the rif and var transcript profile of the asexual progenitors. At stage V, mature gametocytes produced high levels of a single rif gene, PF13_0006, which also dominated the rif transcript profile of sporozoites. All var genes appeared to be silenced in sporozoites.Conclusions: The most prominent variant surface antigen transcribed in both gametocytes and sporozoites of 3D7/NF54 is a single variant of the RIFIN protein family. This discovery may lead to the identification of the parasites binding ligands responsible for the adhesion during sexual stages and potentially to novel vaccine candidates

Acquisition of naturally occurring antibody responses to recombinant protein domains of Plasmodium falciparum erythrocyte membrane protein 1

Background: Antibodies targeting variant antigens expressed on the surface of Plasmodium falciparum infected erythrocytes have been associated with protection from clinical malaria. The precise target for these antibodies is unknown. The best characterized and most likely target is the erythrocyte surface-expressed variant protein family Plasmodium falciparum erythrocyte membrane protein 1 (PfEMP1). Methods: Using recombinant proteins corresponding to five domains of the expressed A4 var gene, A4 PfEMP1, the naturally occurring antibody response was assessed, by ELISA, to each domain in serum samples obtained from individuals resident in two communities of differing malaria transmission intensity on the Kenyan coast. Using flow cytometry, the correlation in individual responses to each domain with responses to intact A4-infected erythrocytes expressing A4 PfEMP1 on their surface as well as responses to two alternative parasite clones and one clinical isolate was assessed. Results: Marked variability in the prevalence of responses between each domain and between each transmission area was observed, as wasa strong correlation between age and reactivity with some but not all domains. Individual responses to each domain varied strikingly, with some individuals showing reactivity to all domains and others with no reactivity to any, this was apparent at all age groups. Evidence for possible cross-reactivity in responses to the domain DBL4γ was found. Conclusion: Individuals acquire antibodies to surface expressed domains of a highly variant protein. The finding of potential cross-reactivity in responses to one of these domains is an important initial finding in the consideration of potential vaccine targets

Science Impacts of the SPHEREx All-Sky Optical to Near-Infrared Spectral Survey: Report of a Community Workshop Examining Extragalactic, Galactic, Stellar and Planetary Science

SPHEREx is a proposed SMEX mission selected for Phase A. SPHEREx will carry out the first all-sky spectral survey and provide for every 6.2" pixel a spectra between 0.75 and 4.18 $\mu$m [with R$\sim$41.4] and 4.18 and 5.00 $\mu$m [with R$\sim$135]. The SPHEREx team has proposed three specific science investigations to be carried out with this unique data set: cosmic inflation, interstellar and circumstellar ices, and the extra-galactic background light. It is readily apparent, however, that many other questions in astrophysics and planetary sciences could be addressed with the SPHEREx data. The SPHEREx team convened a community workshop in February 2016, with the intent of enlisting the aid of a larger group of scientists in defining these questions. This paper summarizes the rich and varied menu of investigations that was laid out. It includes studies of the composition of main belt and Trojan/Greek asteroids; mapping the zodiacal light with unprecedented spatial and spectral resolution; identifying and studying very low-metallicity stars; improving stellar parameters in order to better characterize transiting exoplanets; studying aliphatic and aromatic carbon-bearing molecules in the interstellar medium; mapping star formation rates in nearby galaxies; determining the redshift of clusters of galaxies; identifying high redshift quasars over the full sky; and providing a NIR spectrum for most eROSITA X-ray sources. All of these investigations, and others not listed here, can be carried out with the nominal all-sky spectra to be produced by SPHEREx. In addition, the workshop defined enhanced data products and user tools which would facilitate some of these scientific studies. Finally, the workshop noted the high degrees of synergy between SPHEREx and a number of other current or forthcoming programs, including JWST, WFIRST, Euclid, GAIA, K2/Kepler, TESS, eROSITA and LSST.Comment: Report of the First SPHEREx Community Workshop, http://spherex.caltech.edu/Workshop.html , 84 pages, 28 figure

Mitigating the Impacts of Development Corridors on Biodiversity: A Global Review

Development corridors are extensive, often transnational and linear, geographical areas targeted for investment to help achieve sustainable development. They often comprise the creation of hard infrastructure (i.e., physical structures) and soft infrastructure (i.e., policies, plans, and programmes) involving a variety of actors. They are globally widespread, and likely to be a significant driver of habitat loss. Here, we describe the development corridors phenomenon from a biodiversity perspective and identify the elements of best practice in biodiversity impact mitigation. We use these to carry out a review of the peer reviewed literature on corridors to respond to three questions: (i) how impacts on biodiversity and ecosystem services are assessed; (ii) what mitigation measures are discussed to manage these impacts; and (iii) to what extent do these measures approximate to best practice. We found that of 271 publications on development corridors across all continents (except for Antarctica) mentioning biodiversity or ecosystem services, only 100 (37%) assessed impacts on biodiversity and 7 (3%) on ecosystem services. Importantly, only half of these (52, 19% of the total 271 articles) discussed mitigation measures to manage these impacts. These measures focused on avoidance and minimisation and there was scant mention of restoration or ecological compensation illustrating a deficient application of the mitigation hierarchy. We conclude that the academic literature on corridors does not give sufficient consideration to comprehensive mitigation of biodiversity impacts. To change this, impact assessment research needs to acknowledge the complexity of such multi-project and multi-stakeholder initiatives, quantify biodiversity losses due to the full suite of their potential direct, indirect and cumulative impacts, and follow all the steps of the mitigation hierarchy impact framework. We suggest a series of research avenues and policy recommendations to improve impact assessments of corridors towards achieving better biodiversity outcomes