Estimating Standard Errors For The Parks Model: Can Jackknifing Help?

Non-spherical errors, namely heteroscedasticity, serial correlation and cross-sectional correlation are commonly present within panel data sets. These can cause significant problems for econometric analyses. The FGLS(Parks) estimator has been demonstrated to produce considerable efficiency gains in these settings. However, it suffers from underestimation of coefficient standard errors, oftentimes severe. Potentially, jackknifing the FGLS(Parks) estimator could allow one to maintain the efficiency advantages of FGLS(Parks) while producing more reliable estimates of coefficient standard errors. Accordingly, this study investigates the performance of the jackknife estimator of FGLS(Parks) using Monte Carlo experimentation. We find that jackknifing can -- in narrowly defined situations -- substantially improve the estimation of coefficient standard errors. However, its overall performance is not sufficient to make it a viable alternative to other panel data estimators.Panel Data estimation; Parks model; cross-sectional correlation; jackknife; Monte Carlo

A global data set of soil particle size properties

A standardized global data set of soil horizon thicknesses and textures (particle size distributions) was compiled. This data set will be used by the improved ground hydrology parameterization designed for the Goddard Institute for Space Studies General Circulation Model (GISS GCM) Model 3. The data set specifies the top and bottom depths and the percent abundance of sand, silt, and clay of individual soil horizons in each of the 106 soil types cataloged for nine continental divisions. When combined with the World Soil Data File, the result is a global data set of variations in physical properties throughout the soil profile. These properties are important in the determination of water storage in individual soil horizons and exchange of water with the lower atmosphere. The incorporation of this data set into the GISS GCM should improve model performance by including more realistic variability in land-surface properties

Comparison of three techniques for genetic estimation ofeffective population size in a critically endangered parrot

Understanding the current population size of small, spatially aggregating populations of species is essential for their conservation. Reliable estimates of the effective population size (Ne) can be used to provide an early warning for conservation managers of the risks to genetic viability of small populations. Critically endangered, migratory swift parrots Lathamus discolor exist in a single panmictic population in Australia. In their Tasmanian breeding range, they are at severe risk of predation by introduced sugar gliders, exacerbated by deforestation. We used three genetic approaches to estimate Ne using DNA samples genotyped by microsatellite markers and existing life-history data of swift parrots. Based on all samples, we revealed small contemporary Ne estimates across methods (range: 44-140), supporting the need to urgently address threatening processes. Using the 0.5 Ne/N ratio calculated from demographic data suggests that the minimum potential contemporary population size is below 300 individual swift parrots. This is considerably lower than the published estimates derived from expert elicitation, and accords with modeled estimates of extinction risk in this species. Our study has important implications for other threatened species with unknown population sizes and demonstrates that by utilizing available genetic data, reasonable estimates of Ne can be derived.This work was funded by the Loro Parque Fundaci on, theAustralian Research Council (DP140104202), and a crowd-funding campaign“The parrot, the possum and the parda-lote”. This research also received support from theAustralian Government’s National Environmental ScienceProgram through the Threatened Species Recovery Hub, andfrom Australia Awards through the Endeavour Scholarshipsand Fellowships (ERF-PDR-6086-2017

Primordial nucleosynthesis with a varying fine structure constant: An improved estimate

We compute primordial light-element abundances for cases with fine structure constant alpha different from the present value, including many sources of alpha dependence neglected in previous calculations. Specifically, we consider contributions arising from Coulomb barrier penetration, photon coupling to nuclear currents, and the electromagnetic components of nuclear masses. We find the primordial abundances to depend more weakly on alpha than previously estimated, by up to a factor of 2 in the case of ^7Li. We discuss the constraints on variations in alpha from the individual abundance measurements and the uncertainties affecting these constraints. While the present best measurements of primordial D/H, ^4He/H, and ^7Li/H may be reconciled pairwise by adjusting alpha and the universal baryon density, no value of alpha allows all three to be accommodated simultaneously without consideration of systematic error. The combination of measured abundances with observations of acoustic peaks in the cosmic microwave background favors no change in alpha within the uncertainties.Comment: Phys. Rev. D accepted version; minor changes in response to refere

Seismological imaging of ridge–arc interaction beneath the Eastern Lau Spreading Center from OBS ambient noise tomography

The Lau Basin displays large along-strike variations in ridge characters with the changing proximity of the adjacent subduction zone. The mechanism governing these changes is not well understood but one hypotheses relates them to interaction between the arc and back-arc magmatic systems. We present a 3D seismic velocity model of the shallow mantle beneath the Eastern Lau back-arc Spreading Center (ELSC) and the adjacent Tofua volcanic arc obtained from ambient noise tomography of ocean bottom seismograph data. Our seismic images reveal an asymmetric upper mantle low velocity zone (LVZ) beneath the ELSC. Two major trends are present as the ridge-to-arc distance increases: (1) the LVZ becomes increasingly offset from the ridge to the north, where crust is thinner and the ridge less magmatically active; (2) the LVZ becomes increasingly connected to a sub-arc low velocity zone to the south. The separation of the ridge and arc low velocity zones is spatially coincident with the abrupt transition in crustal composition and ridge morphology. Our results present the first mantle imaging confirmation of a direct connection between crustal properties and uppermost mantle processes at ELSC, and support the prediction that as ELSC migrates away from the arc, a changing mantle wedge flow pattern leads to the separation of the arc and ridge melting regions. Slab-derived water is cutoff from the ridge, resulting in abrupt changes in crustal lava composition and crustal porosity. The larger offset between mantle melt supply and the ridge along the northern ELSC may reduce melt extraction efficiency along the ridge, further decreasing the melt budget and leading to the observed flat and faulted ridge morphology, thinner crust and the lack of an axial melt lens

Price adjustment in the London housing market

Recent research into the dynamic adjustment of prices within the London housing market is extended via the application of a novel two-step procedure. Combining the non-parametric analysis of the ranking distributions of the levels and changes in house prices with the application of a cross-sectional convergence technique, the analysis results in the detection of a three-tier system in which highly significant convergence clubs are identified within borough-level data. These findings contrast with both the divergence apparent when considering all boroughs and the failure of previous research to identify convergent groupings. The novelty of the empirical methods is supplemented by a discussion of various theoretical factors such as gentrification, displaced demand, immigration, foreign investment and criminal activity in relation to the findings obtained

Haemophilus ducreyi Cutaneous Ulcer Strains Are Nearly Identical to Class I Genital Ulcer Strains

BACKGROUND: Although cutaneous ulcers (CU) in the tropics is frequently attributed to Treponema pallidum subspecies pertenue, the causative agent of yaws, Haemophilus ducreyi has emerged as a major cause of CU in yaws-endemic regions of the South Pacific islands and Africa. H. ducreyi is generally susceptible to macrolides, but CU strains persist after mass drug administration of azithromycin for yaws or trachoma. H. ducreyi also causes genital ulcers (GU) and was thought to be exclusively transmitted by microabrasions that occur during sex. In human volunteers, the GU strain 35000HP does not infect intact skin; wounds are required to initiate infection. These data led to several questions: Are CU strains a new variant of H. ducreyi or did they evolve from GU strains? Do CU strains contain additional genes that could allow them to infect intact skin? Are CU strains susceptible to azithromycin? METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: To address these questions, we performed whole-genome sequencing and antibiotic susceptibility testing of 5 CU strains obtained from Samoa and Vanuatu and 9 archived class I and class II GU strains. Except for single nucleotide polymorphisms, the CU strains were genetically almost identical to the class I strain 35000HP and had no additional genetic content. Phylogenetic analysis showed that class I and class II strains formed two separate clusters and CU strains evolved from class I strains. Class I strains diverged from class II strains ~1.95 million years ago (mya) and CU strains diverged from the class I strain 35000HP ~0.18 mya. CU and GU strains evolved under similar selection pressures. Like 35000HP, the CU strains were highly susceptible to antibiotics, including azithromycin. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: These data suggest that CU strains are derivatives of class I strains that were not recognized until recently. These findings require confirmation by analysis of CU strains from other regions

WARRN – a formulation-based risk assessment process: its implementation and impact across a whole country

Purpose Wales Applied Risk Research Network (WARRN) is a formulation-based technique for the assessment and management of serious risk (e.g. violence to others, suicide, etc.) for users of mental health services. It has been gradually adopted as the risk evaluation and safety-planning technique for all seven health boards in Wales. The purpose of this paper is to examine the opinions of WARRN as used within these health boards. Design/methodology/approach An online survey was disseminated to NHS clinicians in secondary mental health services to evaluate their perceptions of the use and effectiveness of WARRN. Data from 486 clinicians were analysed with both quantitative and qualitative methods. Findings Results indicated that the overall impact of WARRN on secondary mental health care was very positive, with clinicians reporting increased skills in the domains of clinical risk formulation, safety-planning and communication, as well as increased confidence in their skills and abilities in these areas. Clinicians also reported that the “common-language” created by having all NHS health boards in Wales using the same risk assessment process facilitated the communication of safety-planning. Crucially, NHS staff believed that the safety of service users and of the general public had increased due to the adoption of WARRN in their health board and many believed that lives had been saved as a result. Originality/value WARRN is perceived to have improved clinical skills in risk assessment and safety-planning across Wales and saved lives