NudgeAlong: A Case-Based Approach to Changing User Behaviour

Companies want to change the way that users interact with their services. One of the main ways to do this is through messaging. It is well known that different users are likely to respond to different types of messages. Targeting the right message type at the right user is key to achieving successful behaviour change. This paper frames this as a case based reasoning problem. The case representation captures a summary of a user’s interactions with a company’s services over time. The case solution represents a message type that resulted in a desired change in the user’s behaviour. This paper describes this framework, how it has been tested using simulation and a short description of a test deployment

Accelerating transition to virtual research organisation in social science (AVROSS) : final report

This report is the fourth deliverable of the AVROSS study (Accelerating Transition to Virtual Research Organisation in Social Science, AVROSS). The study aims were to identify the requirements and options for accelerating the transition from traditional research to virtual research organisations through e-Infrastructures. The reason for this focus is that it is clear that "soft" sciences have both much to gain and a key role to play in promoting e-Infrastructure uptake across the disciplines, but to date have not been the fastest adopters of advanced grid-based e-Infrastructure. Our recommendations to EU policy-makers can be expected to point the way to changing this situation, promoting e-Infrastructure in Europe in these disciplines, with clear requirements to developers and expected impact in several other disciplines with related requirements, such as e-Health

Integrating stakeholders' perspectives and spatial modelling to develop scenarios of future land use and land cover change in northern Tanzania.

Rapid rates of land use and land cover change (LULCC) in eastern Africa and limited instances of genuinely equal partnerships involving scientists, communities and decision makers challenge the development of robust pathways toward future environmental and socioeconomic sustainability. We use a participatory modelling tool, Kesho, to assess the biophysical, socioeconomic, cultural and governance factors that influenced past (1959-1999) and present (2000-2018) LULCC in northern Tanzania and to simulate four scenarios of land cover change to the year 2030. Simulations of the scenarios used spatial modelling to integrate stakeholders' perceptions of future environmental change with social and environmental data on recent trends in LULCC. From stakeholders' perspectives, between 1959 and 2018, LULCC was influenced by climate variability, availability of natural resources, agriculture expansion, urbanization, tourism growth and legislation governing land access and natural resource management. Among other socio-environmental-political LULCC drivers, the stakeholders envisioned that from 2018 to 2030 LULCC will largely be influenced by land health, natural and economic capital, and political will in implementing land use plans and policies. The projected scenarios suggest that by 2030 agricultural land will have expanded by 8-20% under different scenarios and herbaceous vegetation and forest land cover will be reduced by 2.5-5% and 10-19% respectively. Stakeholder discussions further identified desirable futures in 2030 as those with improved infrastructure, restored degraded landscapes, effective wildlife conservation, and better farming techniques. The undesirable futures in 2030 were those characterized by land degradation, poverty, and cultural loss. Insights from our work identify the implications of future LULCC scenarios on wildlife and cultural conservation and in meeting the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) and targets by 2030. The Kesho approach capitalizes on knowledge exchanges among diverse stakeholders, and in the process promotes social learning, provides a sense of ownership of outputs generated, democratizes scientific understanding, and improves the quality and relevance of the outputs

Serengeti's futures: Exploring land use and land cover change scenarios to craft pathways for meeting conservation and development goals

Rapid land use transformations and increased climatic uncertainties challenge potential sustainable development pathways for communities and wildlife in regions with strong economic reliance on natural resources. In response to the complex causes and consequences of land use change, participatory scenario development approaches have emerged as key tools for analyzing drivers of change to help chart the future of socio-ecological systems. We assess stakeholder perspectives of land use and land cover change (LULCC) and integrate co-produced scenarios of future land cover change with spatial modeling to evaluate how future LULCC in the wider Serengeti ecosystem might align or diverge with the United Nations' Sustainable Development Goals and the African Union's Agenda 2063. Across the wider Serengeti ecosystem, population growth, infrastructural development, agricultural economy, and political will in support of climate change management strategies were perceived to be the key drivers of future LULCC. Under eight scenarios, declines in forest area as a proportion of total land area ranged from 0.1% to 4% in 2030 and from 0.1% to 6% in 2063, with the preservation of forest cover linked to the level of protection provided. Futures with well-demarcated protected areas, sound land use plans, and stable governance were highly desired. In contrast, futures with severe climate change impacts and encroached and degazetted protected areas were considered undesirable. Insights gained from our study are important for guiding pathways toward achieving sustainability goals while recognizing societies' relationship with nature. The results highlight the usefulness of multi-stakeholder engagement, perspective sharing, and consensus building toward shared socio-ecological goals

How does water-reliant industry affect groundwater systems in coastal Kenya?

The industrialization process taking place in Africa has led to an overall increase in groundwater abstraction in most countries in the continent. However, the lack of hydrogeological data, as in many developing countries, makes it difficult to properly manage groundwater systems. This study presents a real case study in which a combination of different hydrogeological tools together with different sources of information allow the assessment of how increased competition for water may be affecting groundwater systems by analysing the sustainability of new abstraction regimes under different real climatic condition (before, during and after La Niña 2016). The area where this approach has been applied is Kwale County (in Coastal Kenya) in a hydrogeological context representative of an important part of the east coast of the continent, where new mining and agriculture activities co-exist with tourism and local communities. The results show that the lack of aquifer systems data can be overcome, at least partly, by integrating different sources of information. Most of the time, water-reliant users collect specific hydrogeological information that can contribute to defining the overall hydrogeological system, since their own main purpose is to exploit the aquifer with the maximum productivity. Therefore, local community water usage, together with different stakeholder's knowledge and good corporate water management act as a catalyst for providing critical data, and allows the generation of credible models for future groundwater management and resource allocation. Furthermore, complementary but simple information sources such as in situ interviews, Google Earth, Trip Advisor and easy-to use analytical methods that can be applied in the African context as in many developing countries, and enables groundwater abstraction to be estimated and the sustainability of the aquifer system to be defined, allowing potential future risks to be assessed.Peer ReviewedPostprint (published version

Late Holocene environmental change and anthropogenic: Ecosystem interaction on the Laikipia Plateau, Kenya.

East African ecosystems have been shaped by long-term socio-ecological-environmental interactions. Although much previous work on human-environment interrelationships have emphasised the negative impacts of human interventions, a growing body of work shows that there have also often been strong beneficial connections between people and ecosystems, especially in savanna environments. However, limited information and understanding of past interactions between humans and ecosystems of periods longer than a century hampers effective management of contemporary environments. Here, we present a late Holocene study of pollen, fern spore, fungal spore, and charcoal analyses from radiocarbon-dated sediment sequences and assess this record against archaeological and historical data to describe socio-ecological changes on the Laikipia Plateau in Rift Valley Province, Kenya. The results suggest a landscape characterised by closed forests between 2268 years before present (cal year BP) and 1615 cal year BP when there was a significant change to a more open woodland/grassland mosaic that continues to prevail across the study area. Increased amounts of charcoal in the sediment are observed for this same period, becoming particularly common from around 900 cal year BP associated with fungal spores commonly linked to the presence of herbivores. It is likely these trends reflect changes in land use management as pastoral populations improved and extended pasture, using fire to eradicate disease-prone habitats. Implications for contemporary land use management are discussed in the light of these findings

Sample size for inspection intended to manage risk within mixed consignments

The identification of a lot, and the size of the random sample taken for plant products, is justified by appeal to International Standards for Phytosanitary Measures No. 31, “Methodologies for Sampling of Consignments”. ISPM 31 notes that “A lot to be sampled should be a number of units of a single commodity identifiable by its homogeneity [...]” and “Treating multiple commodities as a single lot for convenience may mean that statistical inferences cannot be drawn from the results of the sampling.” However, consignments are frequently heterogeneous, either because the same commodities have multiple sources or because there are several different commodities. The ISPM 31 prescription creates a substantial burden on border inspection because it suggests that heterogeneous populations must be split into homogeneous sub-populations from which separate samples of nominal size must be taken. We demonstrate that if consignments with known heterogeneity are treated as stratified populations and the random sample of units is allocated proportionally based on the number of units in each stratum, then the nominal sensitivity at the consignment level is achieved if our concern is the level of contamination in the entire consignment taken as a whole. We argue that unknown heterogeneity is no impediment to appropriate statistical inference. We conclude that the international standard is unnecessarily restrictive

The respiratory depressant effects of mitragynine are limited by its conversion to 7-OH mitragynine

Background and Purpose: Mitragynine, the major alkaloid in Mitragyna speciosa (kratom), is a partial agonist at the μ opioid receptor. CYP3A-dependent oxidation of mitragynine yields the metabolite 7-OH mitragynine, a more efficacious μ receptor agonist. While both mitragynine and 7-OH mitragynine can induce anti-nociception in mice, recent evidence suggests that 7-OH mitragynine formed as a metabolite is sufficient to explain the anti-nociceptive effects of mitragynine. However, the ability of 7-OH mitragynine to induce μ receptor-dependent respiratory depression has not yet been studied. Experimental Approach: Respiration was measured in awake, freely moving, male CD-1 mice, using whole body plethysmography. Anti-nociception was measured using the hot plate assay. Morphine, mitragynine, 7-OH mitragynine and the CYP3A inhibitor ketoconazole were administered orally. Key Results: The respiratory depressant effects of mitragynine showed a ceiling effect, whereby doses higher than 10 mg·kg−1 produced the same level of effect. In contrast, 7-OH mitragynine induced a dose-dependent effect on mouse respiration. At equi-depressant doses, both mitragynine and 7-OH mitragynine induced prolonged anti-nociception. Inhibition of CYP3A reduced mitragynine-induced respiratory depression and anti-nociception without affecting the effects of 7-OH mitragynine. Conclusions and Implications: Both the anti-nociceptive effects and the respiratory depressant effects of mitragynine are partly due to its metabolic conversion to 7-OH mitragynine. The limiting rate of conversion of mitragynine into its active metabolite results in a built-in ceiling effect of the mitragynine-induced respiratory depression. These data suggest that such ‘metabolic saturation’ at high doses may underlie the improved safety profile of mitragynine as an opioid analgesic

Pre-Hispanic anthropogenic wetlands in the upper Ica drainage, south-central Andes: dating and context

Humans have engineered their environmentsthroughout the Holocene, especially in the constructionof hydraulic infrastructure. In many regions,however, this infrastructure is difficult to date, includingthe vestiges of water-management systems in theAndean highlands. Focusing on silt reservoirs in theupper Ica drainage, Peru, the authors use cores andradiocarbon dates to demonstrate the pre-Hispanicconstruction of walls to enhance and expand wetlandsfor camelid pasture. Interventions dated to the Incaperiod (AD 1400?1532) indicate an intensificationof investment in hydraulic infrastructure to expandproduction capacity in support of the state. Theresults are discussed in the context of the hydraulicstrategies of other states and empires.Fil: Lane, Kevin John. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Oficina de Coordinación Administrativa Saavedra 15. Instituto de las Culturas. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Instituto de las Culturas; ArgentinaFil: Beresford Jones, David. Universitat Bonn; AlemaniaFil: Coll, Luis Vicente Javier. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Oficina de Coordinación Administrativa Saavedra 15. Instituto de las Culturas. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Instituto de las Culturas; ArgentinaFil: Marsh, Erik Johnson. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - Mendoza. Instituto Interdisciplinario de Ciencias Básicas. - Universidad Nacional de Cuyo. Instituto Interdisciplinario de Ciencias Básicas; ArgentinaFil: Scaife, Rob. University of Southampton; Reino UnidoFil: Greco Mainero, Mariano Catriel. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas; Argentina. Universidad Nacional de San Luis. Facultad de Ciencias Físico Matemáticas y Naturales; ArgentinaFil: Oros, Oliver Huaman. Ministerio de Cultura; PerúFil: Herrera, Alexander. Universidad de Los Andes; ColombiaFil: Grant Lett Brown, Jennifer Luisa. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas; Argentina. Secretaría de Cultura de la Nación. Dirección Nacional de Cultura y Museos. Instituto Nacional de Antropología y Pensamiento Latinoamericano; ArgentinaFil: French, Charles. University of Cambridge; Estados Unido

Serengeti’s futures: Exploring land use and land cover change scenarios to craft pathways for meeting conservation and development goals

This research article was published by Frontiers in Conservation Science, 2022Rapid land use transformations and increased climatic uncertainties challenge potential sustainable development pathways for communities and wildlife in regions with strong economic reliance on natural resources. In response to the complex causes and consequences of land use change, participatory scenario development approaches have emerged as key tools for analyzing drivers of change to help chart the future of socio-ecological systems. We assess stakeholder perspectives of land use and land cover change (LULCC) and integrate co-produced scenarios of future land cover change with spatial modeling to evaluate how future LULCC in the wider Serengeti ecosystem might align or diverge with the United Nations’ Sustainable Development Goals and the African Union’s Agenda 2063. Across the wider Serengeti ecosystem, population growth, infrastructural development, agricultural economy, and political will in support of climate change management strategies were perceived to be the key drivers of future LULCC. Under eight scenarios, declines in forest area as a proportion of total land area ranged from 0.1% to 4% in 2030 and from 0.1% to 6% in 2063, with the preservation of forest cover linked to the level of protection provided. Futures with well-demarcated protected areas, sound land use plans, and stable governance were highly desired. In contrast, futures with severe climate change impacts and encroached and degazetted protected areas were considered undesirable. Insights gained from our study are important for guiding pathways toward achieving sustainability goals while recognizing societies’ relationship with nature. The results highlight the usefulness of multi-stakeholder engagement, perspective sharing, and consensus building toward shared socio-ecological goals