Stress Inversion in a Gelatin Box: Testing Eruptive Vent Location Forecasts With Analog Models

Assessing volcanic hazard in regions of distributed volcanism is challenging because of the uncertain location of future vents. A statistical-mechanical strategy to forecast such locations was recently proposed: here, we further develop and test it with analog models. We stress a gelatin block laterally and with surface excavations, and observe air-filled crack trajectories. We use the observed surface arrivals to sample the distributions of parameters describing the stress state of the gelatin block, combining deterministic crack trajectory simulations with a Monte Carlo approach. While the individual stress parameters remain unconstrained, we effectively retrieve their ratio and successfully forecast the arrival points of subsequent cracks

Evans Syndrome in Childhood: Long Term Follow-Up and the Evolution in Primary Immunodeficiency or Rheumatological Disease

Evans syndrome (ES) is a rare but challenging condition, characterized by recurrent and refractory cytopenia episodes. Recent discoveries highlighted that an appropriate diagnostic workup is fundamental to identify an underlying immune dysregulation such as primary immunodeficiencies or a rheumatological disease. We hereby describe clinical features and laboratory results of 12 pediatric patients affected by ES referred to the Pediatric Onco-Hematology Unit of Bologna. Patients experienced a median of four acute episodes of cytopenia with 9 years as median age at the onset of symptoms. In 8/12 (67%) patients an underlying etiology, primary immunodeficiencies, or rheumatological disease was identified. In 4/12 children, other immune manifestations were associated (Thyroiditis, Celiac disease, Psoriasis, Vitiligo, Myositis, Membranoproliferative Glomerulonephritis). ES remained the primary diagnosis in four patients (33%). At a median follow-up time of 4 years, 5/12 (42%) patients revealed a chronic ITP, partially responsive to second line therapy. Immunoglobulin Replacement Therapy (IRT) was effective with a good hematological values control in three patients with a secondary ES (ALPS, CVID, and a patient with Rubinstein Taybi Syndrome and a progressive severe B cell deficiency with hypogammaglobulinemia). Our experience highlights that, in pediatric patients, ES is often only the first manifestation of an immunological or rheumatological disease, especially when cytopenias are persistent or resistant to therapy, with an early-onset or when are associated with lymphadenopathy

Activated phosphoinositide 3-dinase delta syndrome (APDS): An update

Activated phosphoinositide 3-kinase delta syndrome (APDS) is a recently described form of inborn error of immunity (IEI) caused by heterozygous mutations in PIK3CD or PIK3R1 genes, respectively, encoding leukocyte-restricted catalytic p110\u3b4 subunit and the ubiquitously expressed regulatory p85 \u3b1 subunit of the phosphoinositide 3-kinase \u3b4 (PI3K\u3b4). The first described patients with respiratory infections, hypogammaglobulinemia with normal to elevated IgM serum levels, lymphopenia, and lymphoproliferation. Since the original description, it is becoming evident that the onset of disease may be somewhat variable over time, both in terms of age at presentation and in terms of clinical and immunological complications. In many cases, patients are referred to various specialists such as hematologists, rheumatologists, gastroenterologists, and others, before an immunological evaluation is performed, leading to delay in diagnosis, which negatively affects their prognosis. The significant heterogeneity in the clinical and immunological features affecting APDS patients requires awareness among clinicians since good results with p110\u3b4 inhibitors have been reported, certainly ameliorating these patients\u2019 quality of life and prognosis

Tailored treatments in inborn errors of immunity associated with atopy (IEIs-A) with skin involvement

inborn errors of immunity associated with atopy (IEIs-A) are a group of inherited monogenic disorders that occur with immune dysregulation and frequent skin involvement. several pathways are involved in the pathogenesis of these conditions, including immune system defects, alterations of skin barrier and metabolism perturbations. current technological improvements and the higher accessibility to genetic testing, recently allowed the identification of novel molecular pathways involved in IEIs-A, also informing on potential tailored therapeutic strategies. compared to other systemic therapy for skin diseases, biologics have the less toxic and the best tolerated profile in the setting of immune dysregulation. Here, we review IEIs-A with skin involvement focusing on the tailored therapeutic approach according to their pathogenetic mechanism

Impact Forecasting to Support Emergency Management of Natural Hazards

Forecasting and early warning systems are important investments to protect lives, properties, and livelihood. While early warning systems are frequently used to predict the magnitude, location, and timing of potentially damaging events, these systems rarely provide impact estimates, such as the expected amount and distribution of physical damage, human consequences, disruption of services, or financial loss. Complementing early warning systems with impact forecasts has a twofold advantage: It would provide decision makers with richer information to take informed decisions about emergency measures and focus the attention of different disciplines on a common target. This would allow capitalizing on synergies between different disciplines and boosting the development of multihazard early warning systems. This review discusses the state of the art in impact forecasting for a wide range of natural hazards. We outline the added value of impact-based warnings compared to hazard forecasting for the emergency phase, indicate challenges and pitfalls, and synthesize the review results across hazard types most relevant for Europe

Seismic amplitude ratio analysis of the Bárðarbunga-Holuhraun dike propagation and eruption

Magma is transported in brittle rock through dikes and sills. This movement may be accompanied by the release of seismic energy that can be tracked from the Earth's surface. Locating dikes and deciphering their dynamics is therefore of prime importance in understanding and potentially forecasting volcanic eruptions. The Seismic Amplitude Ratio Analysis (SARA) method aims to track melt propagation using the amplitudes recorded across a seismic network without picking the arrival times of individual earthquake phases. This study validates this methodology by comparing SARA locations (filtered between 2 and 16 Hz) with the earthquake locations (same frequency band) recorded during the 2014–2015 Bár urn:x-wiley:jgrb:media:jgrb52508:jgrb52508-math-0003arbunga‐Holuhraun dike intrusion and eruption in Iceland. Integrating both approaches also provides the opportunity to investigate the spatiotemporal characteristics of magma migration during the dike intrusion and ensuing eruption. During the intrusion SARA locations correspond remarkably well to the locations of earthquakes. Several exceptions are, however, observed. (1) A low‐frequency signal was possibly associated with a subglacial eruption on 23 August. (2) A systematic retreat of the seismicity was also observed to the back of each active segment during stalled phases and was associated with a larger spatial extent of the seismic energy source. This behavior may be controlled by the dike's shape and/or by dike inflation. (3) During the eruption SARA locations consistently focused at the eruptive site. (4) Tremor‐rich signal close to ice cauldrons occurred on 3 September. This study demonstrates the power of the SARA methodology, provided robust site amplification; Quality Factors and seismic velocities are available

The propagation and seismicity of dyke injection, new experimental evidence

To reach the surface, dykes must overcome the inherent tensile strength of the country rock. As they do, they generate swarms of seismic signals, frequently used for forecasting. In this study we pressurize and inject molten acrylic into an encapsulating host rocks of (1) Etna basalt and (2) Comiso limestone, at 30 MPa of confining pressure. Fracture was achieved at 12 MPa for Etna basalt and 7.2 MPa for Comiso limestone. The generation of radial fractures was accompanied by acoustic emissions (AE) at a dominant frequency of 600 kHz. During “magma” movement in the dykes, AE events of approximately 150 kHz dominant frequency were recorded. We interpret our data using AE location and dominant frequency analysis, concluding that the seismicity associated with magma transport in dykes peaks during initial dyke creation but remains significant as long as magma movement continues. These results have important implications for seismic monitoring of active volcanoes

Unexpected large eruptions from buoyant magma bodies within viscoelastic crust

Large volume effusive eruptions with relatively minor observed precursory signals are at odds with widely used models to interpret volcano deformation. Here we propose a new modelling framework that resolves this discrepancy by accounting for magma buoyancy, viscoelastic crustal properties, and sustained magma channels. At low magma accumulation rates, the stability of deep magma bodies is governed by the magma-host rock density contrast and the magma body thickness. During eruptions, inelastic processes including magma mush erosion and thermal effects, can form a sustained channel that supports magma flow, driven by the pressure difference between the magma body and surface vents. At failure onset, it may be difficult to forecast the final eruption volume; pressure in a magma body may drop well below the lithostatic load, create under-pressure and initiate a caldera collapse, despite only modest precursors