Vortical and Wave Modes in 3D Rotating Stratified Flows: Random Large Scale Forcing

Utilizing an eigenfunction decomposition, we study the growth and spectra of energy in the vortical and wave modes of a 3D rotating stratified fluid as a function of $\epsilon = f/N$. Working in regimes characterized by moderate Burger numbers, i.e. $Bu = 1/\epsilon^2 < 1$ or $Bu \ge 1$, our results indicate profound change in the character of vortical and wave mode interactions with respect to $Bu = 1$. As with the reference state of $\epsilon=1$, for $\epsilon < 1$ the wave mode energy saturates quite quickly and the ensuing forward cascade continues to act as an efficient means of dissipating ageostrophic energy. Further, these saturated spectra steepen as $\epsilon$ decreases: we see a shift from $k^{-1}$ to $k^{-5/3}$ scaling for $k_f < k < k_d$ (where $k_f$ and $k_d$ are the forcing and dissipation scales, respectively). On the other hand, when $\epsilon > 1$ the wave mode energy never saturates and comes to dominate the total energy in the system. In fact, in a sense the wave modes behave in an asymmetric manner about $\epsilon = 1$. With regard to the vortical modes, for $\epsilon \le 1$, the signatures of 3D quasigeostrophy are clearly evident. Specifically, we see a $k^{-3}$ scaling for $k_f < k < k_d$ and, in accord with an inverse transfer of energy, the vortical mode energy never saturates but rather increases for all $k < k_f$. In contrast, for $\epsilon > 1$ and increasing, the vortical modes contain a progressively smaller fraction of the total energy indicating that the 3D quasigeostrophic subsystem plays an energetically smaller role in the overall dynamics.Comment: 18 pages, 6 figs. (abbreviated abstract

Prediction of complications in early-onset pre-eclampsia (PREP): development and external multinational validation of prognostic models.

BACKGROUND: Unexpected clinical deterioration before 34 weeks gestation is an undesired course in early-onset pre-eclampsia. To safely prolong preterm gestation, accurate and timely prediction of complications is required. METHOD: Women with confirmed early onset pre-eclampsia were recruited from 53 maternity units in the UK to a large prospective cohort study (PREP-946) for development of prognostic models for the overall risk of experiencing a complication using logistic regression (PREP-L), and for predicting the time to adverse maternal outcome using a survival model (PREP-S). External validation of the models were carried out in a multinational cohort (PIERS-634) and another cohort from the Netherlands (PETRA-216). Main outcome measures were C-statistics to summarise discrimination of the models and calibration plots and calibration slopes. RESULTS: A total of 169 mothers (18%) in the PREP dataset had adverse outcomes by 48 hours, and 633 (67%) by discharge. The C-statistics of the models for predicting complications by 48 hours and by discharge were 0.84 (95% CI, 0.81-0.87; PREP-S) and 0.82 (0.80-0.84; PREP-L), respectively. The PREP-S model included maternal age, gestation, medical history, systolic blood pressure, deep tendon reflexes, urine protein creatinine ratio, platelets, serum alanine amino transaminase, urea, creatinine, oxygen saturation and treatment with antihypertensives or magnesium sulfate. The PREP-L model included the above except deep tendon reflexes, serum alanine amino transaminase and creatinine. On validation in the external PIERS dataset, the reduced PREP-S model showed reasonable calibration (slope 0.80) and discrimination (C-statistic 0.75) for predicting adverse outcome by 48 hours. Reduced PREP-L model showed excellent calibration (slope: 0.93 PIERS, 0.90 PETRA) and discrimination (0.81 PIERS, 0.75 PETRA) for predicting risk by discharge in the two external datasets. CONCLUSIONS: PREP models can be used to obtain predictions of adverse maternal outcome risk, including early preterm delivery, by 48 hours (PREP-S) and by discharge (PREP-L), in women with early onset pre-eclampsia in the context of current care. They have a potential role in triaging high-risk mothers who may need transfer to tertiary units for intensive maternal and neonatal care. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ISRCTN40384046 , retrospectively registered

Development and validation of prediction models for risk of adverse outcomes in women with early-onset pre-eclampsia: protocol of the prospective cohort PREP study.

Background: Early-onset pre-eclampsia with raised blood pressure and protein in the urine before 34 weeks' gestation is one of the leading causes of maternal deaths in the UK. The benefits to the child from prolonging the pregnancy need to be balanced against the risk of maternal deterioration. Accurate prediction models of risks are needed to plan management. Methods: We aim to undertake a multicentre prospective cohort study (Prediction of Risks in Early onset Pre-eclampsia (PREP)) to develop clinical prediction models in women with early-onset pre-eclampsia, for risk of adverse maternal outcomes by 48 h and by discharge. We will externally validate the models in two independent cohorts with 634 and 216 women. In the secondary analyses, we will assess risk of adverse fetal and neonatal outcomes at birth and by discharge. Discussion: The PREP study will quantify the risk of maternal complications at various time points and provide individualised estimates of overall risk in women with early-onset pre-eclampsia to plan the management. Trial registration: ISRCTN registry, ISRCTN40384046

Comparison of two independent systematic reviews of trials of recombinant human bone morphogenetic protein-2 (rhBMP-2) : The Yale Open Data Access Medtronic Project

Background: It is uncertain whether the replication of systematic reviews, particularly those with the same objectives and resources, would employ similar methods and/or arrive at identical findings. We compared the results and conclusions of two concurrent systematic reviews undertaken by two independent research teams provided with the same objectives, resources, and individual participant-level data. Methods: Two centers in the USA and UK were each provided with participant-level data on 17 multi-site clinical trials of recombinant human bone morphogenetic protein-2 (rhBMP-2). The teams were blinded to each other's methods and findings until after publication. We conducted a retrospective structured comparison of the results of the two systematic reviews. The main outcome measures included (1) trial inclusion criteria; (2) statistical methods; (3) summary efficacy and risk estimates; and (4) conclusions. Results: The two research teams' meta-analyses inclusion criteria were broadly similar but differed slightly in trial inclusion and research methodology. They obtained similar results in summary estimates of most clinical outcomes and adverse events. Center A incorporated all trials into summary estimates of efficacy and harms, while Center B concentrated on analyses stratified by surgical approach. Center A found a statistically significant, but small, benefit whereas Center B reported no advantage. In the analysis of harms, neither showed an increased cancer risk at 48 months, although Center B reported a significant increase at 24 months. Conclusions reflected these differences in summary estimates of benefit balanced with small but potentially important risk of harm. Conclusions: Two independent groups given the same research objectives, data, resources, funding, and time produced broad general agreement but differed in several areas. These differences, the importance of which is debatable, indicate the value of the availability of data to allow for more than a single approach and a single interpretation of the data. Systematic review registration: PROSPERO CRD42012002040and CRD42012001907

A model to control the epidemic of H5N1 influenza at the source

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>No country is fully prepared for a 1918-like pandemic influenza. Averting a pandemic of H5N1 influenza virus depends on the successful control of its endemicity, outbreaks in poultry and occasional spillage into human which carries a case-fatality rate of over 50%. The use of perimetric depopulation and vaccination has failed to halt the spread of the epidemic. Blanket vaccination for all poultry over a large geographical area is difficult. A combination of moratorium, segregation of water fowls from chickens and vaccination have been proved to be effective in the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region (HKSAR) since 2002 despite endemicity and outbreaks in neighbouring regions. Systematic surveillance in southern China showed that ducks and geese are the primary reservoirs which transmit the virus to chickens, minor poultry and even migratory birds.</p> <p>Presentation of the hypothesis</p> <p>We hypothesize that this combination of moratorium, poultry segregation and targeted vaccination if successfully adapted to an affected district or province in any geographical region with high endemicity would set an example for the control in other regions.</p> <p>Testing the hypothesis</p> <p>A planned one-off moratorium of 3 weeks at the hottest month of the year should decrease the environmental burden as a source of re-infection. Backyard farms will then be re-populated by hatchlings from virus-free chickens and minor poultry only. Targeted immunization of the ducks and geese present only in the industrial farms and also the chickens would be strictly implemented as blanket immunization of all backyard poultry is almost impossible. Freely grazing ducks and geese would not be allowed until neutralizing antibodies of H5 subtype virus is achieved. As a proof of concept, a simple mathematical model with susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR) structure of coupled epidemics between aquatic birds (mainly ducks and geese) and chickens was used to estimate transmissibility within and between these two poultry populations. In the field the hypothesis is tested by prospective surveillance of poultry and immunocompetent patients hospitalized for severe pneumonia for the virus before and after the institution of these measures.</p> <p>Implications of the Hypothesis</p> <p>A combination of targeted immunization with the correct vaccine, segregation of poultry species and moratorium of poultry in addition to the present surveillance, biosecurity and hygienic measures at the farm, market and personal levels could be important in the successful control of the H5N1 virus in poultry and human for an extensive geographical region with continuing outbreaks. Alternatively a lesser scale of intervention at the district level can be considered if there is virus detection without evidence of excess poultry deaths since asymptomatic shedding is common in waterfowls.</p

A Non-Destructive Electromagnetic Sensing Technique to Determine Chloride Level in Maritime Concrete

Deterioration of concrete due to the corrosion of reinforcement is a serious durability problem faced by the construction industry. This study aims to develop a non-destructive and real-time technique to monitor the chloride level at an early stage to prevent the development of the reinforcement’s corrosion using electromagnetic spectroscopy. The experimental work was performed on 5 concrete specimens with different chloride levels at three different concrete depths (18, 40, and 70mm) using the sensor system (2-12GHz frequency range) and a chlorometer. The LM algorithm was selected to develop a prediction model for the detection of chloride ions. The results demonstrated that the proposed technique can predict the chloride level with R2 =0.986709 and RMSE =0.000120 at 5.42GHz. The results demonstrate that the sensor can predict the chloride ion content across the range of the investigated concrete depths with the percentage error of 0.034% with respect to the accuracy of the chlorometer

Anisotropic Charge Distribution and Anisotropic van der Waals Radius Leading to Intriguing Anisotropic Noncovalent Interactions

Although group (IV-VII) nonmetallic elements do not favor interacting with anionic species, there are counterexamples including the halogen bond. Such binding is known to be related to the charge deficiency because of the adjacent atom&apos;s electron withdrawing effect, which creates s/p-holes at the bond-ends. However, a completely opposite behavior is exhibited by N-2 and O-2, which have electrostatically positive/negative character around cylindrical-bond-surface/bond-ends. Inspired by this, here we elucidate the unusual features and origin of the anisotropic noncovalent interactions in the ground and excited states of the 2nd and 3rd row elements belonging to groups IV-VII. The anisotropy in charge distributions and van der Waals radii of atoms in such molecular systems are scrutinized. This provides an understanding of their unusual molecular configuration, binding and recognition modes involved in new types of molecular assembling and engineering. This work would lead to the design of intriguing molecular systems exploiting anisotropic noncovalent interactions.open

Induction of otic structures by canonical Wnt signalling in medaka

The Wnt family of signalling proteins is known to participate in multiple developmental decisions during embryogenesis. We misexpressed Wnt1 in medaka embryos and observed anterior truncations, similar to those described for ectopic activation of canonical Wnt signalling in other species. Interestingly, when we induced a heat-shock Wnt1 transgenic line exactly at 30% epiboly, we observed multiple ectopic otic vesicles in the truncated embryos. The vesicles then fused, forming a single large ear structure. These “cyclopic ears” filled the complete anterior region of the embryos. The ectopic induction of otic development can be explained by the juxtaposition of hindbrain tissue with anterior ectoderm. Fibroblast growth factor (Fgf) ligands are thought to mediate the otic-inducing properties of the hindbrain. However, signals different from Fgf3 and Fgf8 are necessary to explain the formation of the ectopic ear structures, suggesting that Wnt signalling is involved in the otic induction process in medaka

Minimizing the threat of pandemic emergence from avian influenza in poultry systems

BACKGROUND: Live-animal markets are a culturally important feature of meat distribution chains in many populations, yet they provide an opportunity for the maintenance and transmission of potentially emergent zoonotic pathogens. The ongoing human outbreak of avian H7N9 in China highlights the need for increased surveillance and control in these live-bird markets (LBMs). DISCUSSION: Closure of retail markets in affected areas rapidly decreased human cases to rare, sporadic occurrence, but little attention has been paid thus far to the role of upstream elements of the poultry distribution chain such as wholesale markets. This could partly explain why transmission in poultry populations has not been eliminated more broadly. We present surveillance data from both wholesale live-bird markets (wLBMs) and rLBMs in Shantou, China (from 2004–2006), and call on disease-dynamic theory to illustrate why closing rLBMs has only minor effects on the overall volume of transmission. We show that the length of time birds stay in rLBMs can severely limit transmission there, but that the system-wide effect may be reduced substantially by high levels of transmission upstream of retail markets. SUMMARY: Management plans that minimize transmission throughout the entire poultry supply chain are essential for minimizing exposure to the public. These include reducing stay-time of birds in markets to 1 day, standardizing poultry supply chains to limit transmission in pre-retail settings, and monitoring strains with epidemiological traits that pose a high risk of emergence. These actions will further limit human exposure to extant viruses and reduce the likelihood of the emergence of novel strains by decreasing the overall volume of transmission