Potential for airborne transmission of infection in the waiting areas of healthcare premises: stochastic analysis using a Monte Carlo model

BACKGROUND: Although many infections that are transmissible from person to person are acquired through direct contact between individuals, a minority, notably pulmonary tuberculosis (TB), measles and influenza are known to be spread by the airborne route. Airborne infections pose a particular threat to susceptible individuals whenever they are placed together with the index case in confined spaces. With this in mind, waiting areas of healthcare facilities present a particular challenge, since large numbers of people, some of whom may have underlying conditions which predispose them to infection, congregate in such spaces and can be exposed to an individual who may be shedding potentially pathogenic microorganisms. It is therefore important to understand the risks posed by infectious individuals in waiting areas, so that interventions can be developed to minimise the spread of airborne infections. METHOD: A stochastic Monte Carlo model was constructed to analyse the transmission of airborne infection in a hypothetical 132 m3 hospital waiting area in which occupancy levels, waiting times and ventilation rate can all be varied. In the model the Gammaitoni-Nucci equation was utilized to predict probability of susceptible individuals becoming infected. The model was used to assess the risk of transmission of three infectious diseases, TB, influenza and measles. In order to allow for stochasticity a random number generator was applied to the variables in the model and a total of 10000 individual simulations were undertaken. The mean quanta production rates used in the study were 12.7, 100 and 570 per hour for TB, influenza and measles, respectively. RESULTS: The results of the study revealed the mean probability of acquiring a TB infection during a 30-minute stay in the waiting area to be negligible (i.e. 0.0034), while that for influenza was an order of magnitude higher at 0.0262. By comparison the mean probability of acquiring a measles infection during the same period was 0.1349. If the duration of the stay was increased to 60 minutes then these values increased to 0.0087, 0.0662 and 0.3094, respectively. CONCLUSION: Under normal circumstances the risk of acquiring a TB infection during a visit to a hospital waiting area is minimal. Likewise the risks associated with the transmission of influenza, although an order of magnitude greater than those for TB, are relatively small. By comparison, the risks associated with measles are high. While the installation of air disinfection may be beneficial, when seeking to prevent the transmission of airborne viral infection it is important to first minimize waiting times and the number of susceptible individuals present before turning to expensive technological solutions

No association between islet cell antibodies and coxsackie B, mumps, rubella and cytomegalovirus antibodies in non-diabetic individuals aged 7–19 years

Viral antibodies were tested in a cohort of 44 isletcell antibody-positive individuals age 7–19 years, and 44 of their islet cell antibody-negative age and sex-matched classmates selected from a population study of 4208 pupils who had been screened for islet cell antibodies. Anti-coxsackie B1-5 IgM responses were detected in 14 of 44 (32%) of the islet cell antibody-positive subjects and in 7 of 44 (16%) control subjects. This difference did not reach the level of statistical significance. None of the islet cell antibody-positive subjects had specific IgM antibodies to mumps, rubella, or cytomegalovirus. There was also no increase in the prevalence or the mean titres of anti-mumps-IgG or IgA and anti-cytomegalovirus-IgG in islet cell antibody-positive subjects compared to control subjects. These results do not suggest any association between islet cell antibodies, and possibly insulitis, with recent mumps, rubella or cytomegalo virus infection. Further studies are required to clarify the relationship between islet cell antibodies and coxsackie B virus infections

Neuropathological findings processed by artificial neural networks (ANNs) can perfectly distinguish Alzheimer's patients from controls in the Nun Study

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Many reports have described that there are fewer differences in AD brain neuropathologic lesions between AD patients and control subjects aged 80 years and older, as compared with the considerable differences between younger persons with AD and controls. In fact some investigators have suggested that since neurofibrillary tangles (NFT) can be identified in the brains of non-demented elderly subjects they should be considered as a consequence of the aging process. At present, there are no universally accepted neuropathological criteria which can mathematically differentiate AD from healthy brain in the oldest old.</p> <p>The aim of this study is to discover the hidden and non-linear associations among AD pathognomonic brain lesions and the clinical diagnosis of AD in participants in the Nun Study through Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs) analysis</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>The analyses were based on 26 clinically- and pathologically-confirmed AD cases and 36 controls who had normal cognitive function. The inputs used for the analyses were just NFT and neuritic plaques counts in neocortex and hippocampus, for which, despite substantial differences in mean lesions counts between AD cases and controls, there was a substantial overlap in the range of lesion counts.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>By taking into account the above four neuropathological features, the overall predictive capability of ANNs in sorting out AD cases from normal controls reached 100%. The corresponding accuracy obtained with Linear Discriminant Analysis was 92.30%. These results were consistently obtained in ten independent experiments. The same experiments were carried out with ANNs on a subgroup of 13 non severe AD patients and on the same 36 controls. The results obtained in terms of prediction accuracy with ANNs were exactly the same.</p> <p>Input relevance analysis confirmed the relative dominance of NFT in neocortex in discriminating between AD patients and controls and indicated the lesser importance played by NP in the hippocampus.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>The results of this study suggest that: a) cortical NFT represent the key variable in AD neuropathology; b) the neuropathologic profile of AD subjects is complex, however, c) ANNs can analyze neuropathologic features and differentiate AD cases from controls.</p

Global solar wind variations over the last four centuries

The most recent “grand minimum” of solar activity, the Maunder minimum (MM, 1650–1710), is of great interest both for understanding the solar dynamo and providing insight into possible future heliospheric conditions. Here, we use nearly 30 years of output from a data-constrained magnetohydrodynamic model of the solar corona to calibrate heliospheric reconstructions based solely on sunspot observations. Using these empirical relations, we produce the first quantitative estimate of global solar wind variations over the last 400 years. Relative to the modern era, the MM shows a factor 2 reduction in near-Earth heliospheric magnetic field strength and solar wind speed, and up to a factor 4 increase in solar wind Mach number. Thus solar wind energy input into the Earth’s magnetosphere was reduced, resulting in a more Jupiter-like system, in agreement with the dearth of auroral reports from the time. The global heliosphere was both smaller and more symmetric under MM conditions, which has implications for the interpretation of cosmogenic radionuclide data and resulting total solar irradiance estimates during grand minima

Experience and Challenges from Clinical Trials with Malaria Vaccines in Africa.

Malaria vaccines are considered amongst the most important modalities for potential elimination of malaria disease and transmission. Research and development in this field has been an area of intense effort by many groups over the last few decades. Despite this, there is currently no licensed malaria vaccine. Researchers, clinical trialists and vaccine developers have been working on many approached to make malaria vaccine available.African research institutions have developed and demonstrated a great capacity to undertake clinical trials in accordance to the International Conference on Harmonization-Good Clinical Practice (ICH-GCP) standards in the last decade; particularly in the field of malaria vaccines and anti-malarial drugs. This capacity is a result of networking among African scientists in collaboration with other partners; this has traversed both clinical trials and malaria control programmes as part of the Global Malaria Action Plan (GMAP). GMAP outlined and support global strategies toward the elimination and eradication of malaria in many areas, translating in reduction in public health burden, especially for African children. In the sub-Saharan region the capacity to undertake more clinical trials remains small in comparison to the actual need.However, sustainability of the already developed capacity is essential and crucial for the evaluation of different interventions and diagnostic tools/strategies for other diseases like TB, HIV, neglected tropical diseases and non-communicable diseases. There is urgent need for innovative mechanisms for the sustainability and expansion of the capacity in clinical trials in sub-Saharan Africa as the catalyst for health improvement and maintained

New genomic resources for switchgrass: a BAC library and comparative analysis of homoeologous genomic regions harboring bioenergy traits

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Switchgrass, a C4 species and a warm-season grass native to the prairies of North America, has been targeted for development into an herbaceous biomass fuel crop. Genetic improvement of switchgrass feedstock traits through marker-assisted breeding and biotechnology approaches calls for genomic tools development. Establishment of integrated physical and genetic maps for switchgrass will accelerate mapping of value added traits useful to breeding programs and to isolate important target genes using map based cloning. The reported polyploidy series in switchgrass ranges from diploid (2X = 18) to duodecaploid (12X = 108). Like in other large, repeat-rich plant genomes, this genomic complexity will hinder whole genome sequencing efforts. An extensive physical map providing enough information to resolve the homoeologous genomes would provide the necessary framework for accurate assembly of the switchgrass genome.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>A switchgrass BAC library constructed by partial digestion of nuclear DNA with <it>Eco</it>RI contains 147,456 clones covering the effective genome approximately 10 times based on a genome size of 3.2 Gigabases (~1.6 Gb effective). Restriction digestion and PFGE analysis of 234 randomly chosen BACs indicated that 95% of the clones contained inserts, ranging from 60 to 180 kb with an average of 120 kb. Comparative sequence analysis of two homoeologous genomic regions harboring orthologs of the rice <it>OsBRI1 </it>locus, a low-copy gene encoding a putative protein kinase and associated with biomass, revealed that orthologous clones from homoeologous chromosomes can be unambiguously distinguished from each other and correctly assembled to respective fingerprint contigs. Thus, the data obtained not only provide genomic resources for further analysis of switchgrass genome, but also improve efforts for an accurate genome sequencing strategy.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>The construction of the first switchgrass BAC library and comparative analysis of homoeologous harboring <it>OsBRI1 </it>orthologs present a glimpse into the switchgrass genome structure and complexity. Data obtained demonstrate the feasibility of using HICF fingerprinting to resolve the homoeologous chromosomes of the two distinct genomes in switchgrass, providing a robust and accurate BAC-based physical platform for this species. The genomic resources and sequence data generated will lay the foundation for deciphering the switchgrass genome and lead the way for an accurate genome sequencing strategy.</p

Propagation of Respiratory Aerosols by the Vuvuzela

Vuvuzelas, the plastic blowing horns used by sports fans, recently achieved international recognition during the FIFA World Cup soccer tournament in South Africa. We hypothesised that vuvuzelas might facilitate the generation and dissemination of respiratory aerosols. To investigate the quantity and size of aerosols emitted when the instrument is played, eight healthy volunteers were asked to blow a vuvuzela. For each individual the concentration of particles in expelled air was measured using a six channel laser particle counter and the duration of blowing and velocity of air leaving the vuvuzela were recorded. To allow comparison with other activities undertaken at sports events each individual was also asked to shout and the measurements were repeated while using a paper cone to confine the exhaled air. Triplicate measurements were taken for each individual. The mean peak particle counts were 658×103 per litre for the vuvuzela and 3.7×103 per litre for shouting, representing a mean log10 difference of 2.20 (95% CI: 2.03,2.36; p<0.001). The majority (>97%) of particles captured from either the vuvuzela or shouting were between 0.5 and 5 microns in diameter. Mean peak airflows recorded for the vuvuzela and shouting were 6.1 and 1.8 litres per second respectively. We conclude that plastic blowing horns (vuvuzelas) have the capacity to propel extremely large numbers of aerosols into the atmosphere of a size able to penetrate the lower lung. Some respiratory pathogens are spread via contaminated aerosols emitted by infected persons. Further investigation is required to assess the potential of the vuvuzela to contribute to the transmission of aerosol borne diseases. We recommend, as a precautionary measure, that people with respiratory infections should be advised not to blow their vuvuzela in enclosed spaces and where there is a risk of infecting others

Acute neuropsychological effects of MDMA and ethanol (co-)administration in healthy volunteers

Contains fulltext : 73592.pdf (publisher's version ) (Open Access)RATIONALE: In Western societies, a considerable percentage of young people expose themselves to 3,4-methylenedioxymethamphetamine (MDMA or "ecstasy"). Commonly, ecstasy is used in combination with other substances, in particular alcohol (ethanol). MDMA induces both arousing as well as hallucinogenic effects, whereas ethanol is a general central nervous system depressant. OBJECTIVE: The aim of the present study is to assess the acute effects of single and co-administration of MDMA and ethanol on executive, memory, psychomotor, visuomotor, visuospatial and attention function, as well as on subjective experience. MATERIALS AND METHODS: We performed a four-way, double-blind, randomised, crossover, placebo-controlled study in 16 healthy volunteers (nine male, seven female) between the ages of 18-29. MDMA was given orally (100 mg) and blood alcohol concentration was maintained at 0.6 per thousand by an ethanol infusion regime. RESULTS: Co-administration of MDMA and ethanol was well tolerated and did not show greater impairment of performance compared to the single-drug conditions. Impaired memory function was consistently observed after all drug conditions, whereas impairment of psychomotor function and attention was less consistent across drug conditions. CONCLUSIONS: Co-administration of MDMA and ethanol did not exacerbate the effects of either drug alone. Although the impairment of performance by all drug conditions was relatively moderate, all induced significant impairment of cognitive function

Predicting the outcome of conservative treatment with physiotherapy in adults with shoulder pain associated with partial-thickness rotator cuff tears – a prognostic model development study

Model coefficient statistics (DOCX 21 kb

Modelling the Effects of Population Structure on Childhood Disease: The Case of Varicella

Realistic, individual-based models based on detailed census data are increasingly used to study disease transmission. Whether the rich structure of such models improves predictions is debated. This is studied here for the spread of varicella, a childhood disease, in a realistic population of children where infection occurs in the household, at school, or in the community at large. A methodology is first presented for simulating households with births and aging. Transmission probabilities were fitted for schools and community, which reproduced the overall cumulative incidence of varicella over the age range of 0–11 years old