Quantifying mechanistic traits of influenza viral dynamics using in vitro data.

When analysing in vitro data, growth kinetics of influenza virus strains are often compared by computing their growth rates, which are sometimes used as proxies for fitness. However, analogous to mathematical models for epidemics, the growth rate can be defined as a function of mechanistic traits: the basic reproduction number (the average number of cells each infected cell infects) and the mean generation time (the average length of a replication cycle). Fitting a model to previously published and newly generated data from experiments in human lung cells, we compared estimates of growth rate, reproduction number and generation time for six influenza A strains. Of four strains in previously published data, A/Canada/RV733/2003 (seasonal H1N1) had the lowest basic reproduction number, followed by A/Mexico/INDRE4487/2009 (pandemic H1N1), then A/Indonesia/05/2005 (spill-over H5N1) and A/Anhui/1/2013 (spill-over H7N9). This ordering of strains was preserved for both generation time and growth rate, suggesting a positive biological correlation between these quantities which have not been previously observed. We further investigated these potential correlations using data from reassortant viruses with different internal proteins (from A/England/195/2009 (pandemic H1N1) and A/Turkey/05/2005 (H5N1)), and the same surface proteins (from A/Puerto Rico/8/34 (lab-adapted H1N1)). Similar correlations between traits were observed for these viruses, confirming our initial findings and suggesting that these patterns were related to the degree of human adaptation of internal genes. Also, the model predicted that strains with a smaller basic reproduction number, shorter generation time and slower growth rate underwent more replication cycles by the time of peak viral load, potentially accumulating mutations more quickly. These results illustrate the utility of mathematical models in inferring traits driving observed differences in in vitro growth of influenza strains

‘Treading water but drowning slowly’: what are GPs’ experiences of living and working with mental illness and distress in England? A qualitative study

Objectives This paper provides an in-depth account of general practitioners’ (GPs) experiences of living and working with mental illness and distress, as part of a wider study reporting the barriers and facilitators to help-seeking for mental illness and burn-out, and sources of stress/distress for GP participants. Design Qualitative study using in-depth interviews with 47 GP participants. The interviews were audio recorded, transcribed, anonymised and imported into NVivo V.11 to facilitate data management. Data were analysed using a thematic analysis employing the constant comparative method. Setting England. Participants A purposive sample of GP participants who self-identified as: (1) currently living with mental distress, (2) returning to work following treatment, (3) off sick or retired early as a result of mental distress or (4) without experience of mental distress. Interviews were conducted face to face or over the telephone. Results The findings report GP participants’ in-depth experiences of distress and mental illness with many recollecting their distressing experiences and significant psychological and physical symptoms relating to chronic stress, anxiety, depression and/or burn-out, and a quarter articulating thoughts of suicide. Many talked about their shame, humiliation and embarrassment at their perceived inability to cope with the stresses of their job and/or their symptoms of mental illness. Conclusions These findings paint a concerning picture of the situation affecting primary care doctors, with participants’ accounts suggesting there is a considerable degree of mental ill health and reduced well-being among GPs. The solutions are complex and lie in prevention and provision. There needs to be greater recognition of the components and cumulative effect of occupational stressors for doctors, such as the increasing workload and the clinical and emotional demands of the job, as well as the need for a culture shift within medicine to more supportive and compassionate work environments

Reduced keratin expression in colorectal neoplasia and associated fields is reversible by diet and resection

Abstract Background Patients with adenomatous colonic polyps are at increased risk of developing further polyps suggesting field-wide alterations in cancer predisposition. The current study aimed to identify molecular alterations in the normal mucosa in the proximity of adenomatous polyps and to assess the modulating effect of butyrate, a chemopreventive compound produced by fermentation of dietary residues. Methods A cross-sectional study was undertaken in patients with adenomatous polyps: biopsy samples were taken from the adenoma, and from macroscopically normal mucosa on the contralateral wall to the adenoma and from the mid-sigmoid colon. In normal subjects biopsies were taken from the mid-sigmoid colon. Biopsies were frozen for proteomic analysis or formalin-fixed for immunohistochemistry. Proteomic analysis was undertaken using iTRAQ workflows followed by bioinformatics analyses. A second dietary fibre intervention study arm used the same endpoints and sampling strategy at the beginning and end of a high-fibre intervention. Results Key findings were that keratins 8, 18 and 19 were reduced in expression level with progressive proximity to the lesion. Lesional tissue exhibited multiple K8 immunoreactive bands and overall reduced levels of keratin. Biopsies from normal subjects with low faecal butyrate also showed depressed keratin expression. Resection of the lesion and elevation of dietary fibre intake both appeared to restore keratin expression level. Conclusion Changes in keratin expression associate with progression towards neoplasia, but remain modifiable risk factors. Dietary strategies may improve secondary chemoprevention. Trial registration number ISRCTN90852168. Keywords: ADENOMA, BUTYRATE, CYTOKERATINS, DIETARY FIBR

Asymptomatic Clostridium difficile colonization in two Australian tertiary hospitals, 2012-2014: prospective, repeated cross-sectional study.

OBJECTIVES: To investigate the prevalence and risk factors for asymptomatic toxigenic (TCD) and nontoxigenic Clostridium difficile (NTCD) colonization in a broad cross section of the general hospital population over a 3-year period. METHODS: Patients without diarrhoea admitted to two Australian tertiary hospitals were randomly selected through six repeated cross-sectional surveys conducted between 2012 and 2014. Stool specimens were cultured under anaerobic conditions, and C. difficile isolates were tested for the presence of toxin genes and ribotyped. Patients were then grouped into noncolonized, TCD colonized or NTCD colonized for identifying risk factors using multinomial logistic regression models. RESULTS: A total of 1380 asymptomatic patients were enrolled; 76 patients (5.5%) were TCD colonized and 28 (2.0%) were NTCD colonized. There was a decreasing annual trend in TCD colonization, and asymptomatic colonization was more prevalent during the summer than winter months. TCD colonization was associated with gastro-oesophageal reflux disease (relative risk ratio (RRR) = 2.20; 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.17-4.14), higher number of admissions in the previous year (RRR = 1.24; 95% CI 1.10-1.39) and antimicrobial exposure during the current admission (RRR = 2.78; 95% CI 1.23-6.28). NTCD colonization was associated with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (RRR = 3.88; 95% CI 1.66-9.07) and chronic kidney failure (RRR = 5.78; 95% CI 2.29-14.59). Forty-eight different ribotypes were identified, with 014/020 (n = 23), 018 (n = 10) and 056 (n = 6) being the most commonly isolated. CONCLUSIONS: Risk factors differ between patients with asymptomatic colonization by toxigenic and nontoxigenic strains. Given that morbidity is largely driven by toxigenic strains, this novel finding has important implications for disease control and prevention

Effectiveness of a structured, framework-based approach to implementation: the Researching Effective Approaches to Cleaning in Hospitals (REACH) Trial.

BACKGROUND:Implementing sustainable practice change in hospital cleaning has proven to be an ongoing challenge in reducing healthcare associated infections. The purpose of this study was to develop a reliable framework-based approach to implement and quantitatively evaluate the implementation of evidence-based practice change in hospital cleaning. DESIGN/METHODS:The Researching Effective Approaches to Cleaning in Hospitals (REACH) trial was a pragmatic, stepped-wedge randomised trial of an environmental cleaning bundle implemented in 11 Australian hospitals from 2016 to 2017. Using a structured multi-step approach, we adapted the integrated Promoting Action on Research Implementation in Health Services (i-PARIHS) framework to support rigorous and tailored implementation of the cleaning bundle intervention in eleven diverse and complex settings. To evaluate the effectiveness of this strategy we examined post-intervention cleaning bundle alignment calculated as a score (an implementation measure) and cleaning performance audit data collected using ultraviolet (UV) gel markers (an outcome measure). RESULTS:We successfully implemented the bundle and observed improvements in cleaning practice and performance, regardless of hospital size, intervention duration and contextual issues such as staff and organisational readiness at baseline. There was a positive association between bundle alignment scores and cleaning performance at baseline. This diminished over the duration of the intervention, as hospitals with lower baseline scores were able to implement practice change successfully. CONCLUSION:Using a structured framework-based approach allows for pragmatic and successful implementation of clinical trials across diverse settings, and assists with quantitative evaluation of practice change. TRIAL REGISTRATION:Australia New Zealand Clinical Trial Registry ACTRN12615000325505, registered on 4 September 2015

Tendinopathy—from basic science to treatment

Chronic tendon pathology (tendinopathy), although common, is difficult to treat. Tendons possess a highly organized fibrillar matrix, consisting of type I collagen and various 'minor' collagens, proteoglycans and glycoproteins. The tendon matrix is maintained by the resident tenocytes, and there is evidence of a continuous process of matrix remodeling, although the rate of turnover varies at different sites. A change in remodeling activity is associated with the onset of tendinopathy. Major molecular changes include increased expression of type III collagen, fibronectin, tenascin C, aggrecan and biglycan. These changes are consistent with repair, but they might also be an adaptive response to changes in mechanical loading. Repeated minor strain is thought to be the major precipitating factor in tendinopathy, although further work is required to determine whether it is mechanical overstimulation or understimulation that leads to the change in tenocyte activity. Metalloproteinase enzymes have an important role in the tendon matrix, being responsible for the degradation of collagen and proteoglycan in both healthy patients and those with disease. Metalloproteinases that show increased expression in painful tendinopathy include ADAM (a disintegrin and metalloproteinase)-12 and MMP (matrix metalloproteinase)-23. The role of these enzymes in tendon pathology is unknown, and further work is required to identify novel and specific molecular targets for therapy

Dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 infection hospitalisation and infection fatality ratios over 23 months in England

The relationship between prevalence of infection and severe outcomes such as hospitalisation and death changed over the course of the COVID-19 pandemic. Reliable estimates of the infection fatality ratio (IFR) and infection hospitalisation ratio (IHR) along with the time-delay between infection and hospitalisation/death can inform forecasts of the numbers/timing of severe outcomes and allow healthcare services to better prepare for periods of increased demand. The REal-time Assessment of Community Transmission-1 (REACT-1) study estimated swab positivity for Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection in England approximately monthly from May 2020 to March 2022. Here, we analyse the changing relationship between prevalence of swab positivity and the IFR and IHR over this period in England, using publicly available data for the daily number of deaths and hospitalisations, REACT-1 swab positivity data, time-delay models, and Bayesian P-spline models. We analyse data for all age groups together, as well as in 2 subgroups: those aged 65 and over and those aged 64 and under. Additionally, we analysed the relationship between swab positivity and daily case numbers to estimate the case ascertainment rate of England's mass testing programme. During 2020, we estimated the IFR to be 0.67% and the IHR to be 2.6%. By late 2021/early 2022, the IFR and IHR had both decreased to 0.097% and 0.76%, respectively. The average case ascertainment rate over the entire duration of the study was estimated to be 36.1%, but there was some significant variation in continuous estimates of the case ascertainment rate. Continuous estimates of the IFR and IHR of the virus were observed to increase during the periods of Alpha and Delta's emergence. During periods of vaccination rollout, and the emergence of the Omicron variant, the IFR and IHR decreased. During 2020, we estimated a time-lag of 19 days between hospitalisation and swab positivity, and 26 days between deaths and swab positivity. By late 2021/early 2022, these time-lags had decreased to 7 days for hospitalisations and 18 days for deaths. Even though many populations have high levels of immunity to SARS-CoV-2 from vaccination and natural infection, waning of immunity and variant emergence will continue to be an upwards pressure on the IHR and IFR. As investments in community surveillance of SARS-CoV-2 infection are scaled back, alternative methods are required to accurately track the ever-changing relationship between infection, hospitalisation, and death and hence provide vital information for healthcare provision and utilisation

Propagation of an Earth-directed coronal mass ejection in three dimensions

Solar coronal mass ejections (CMEs) are the most significant drivers of adverse space weather at Earth, but the physics governing their propagation through the heliosphere is not well understood. While stereoscopic imaging of CMEs with the Solar Terrestrial Relations Observatory (STEREO) has provided some insight into their three-dimensional (3D) propagation, the mechanisms governing their evolution remain unclear due to difficulties in reconstructing their true 3D structure. Here we use a new elliptical tie-pointing technique to reconstruct a full CME front in 3D, enabling us to quantify its deflected trajectory from high latitudes along the ecliptic, and measure its increasing angular width and propagation from 2-46 solar radii (approximately 0.2 AU). Beyond 7 solar radii, we show that its motion is determined by an aerodynamic drag in the solar wind and, using our reconstruction as input for a 3D magnetohydrodynamic simulation, we determine an accurate arrival time at the Lagrangian L1 point near Earth.Comment: 5 figures, 2 supplementary movie

Does hypoxia play a role in the development of sarcopenia in humans? Mechanistic insights from the Caudwell Xtreme Everest Expedition

OBJECTIVES: Sarcopenia refers to the involuntary loss of skeletal muscle and is a predictor of physical disability/mortality. Its pathogenesis is poorly understood, although roles for altered hypoxic signaling, oxidative stress, adipokines and inflammatory mediators have been suggested. Sarcopenia also occurs upon exposure to the hypoxia of high altitude. Using data from the Caudwell Xtreme Everest expedition we therefore sought to analyze the extent of hypoxia-induced body composition changes and identify putative pathways associated with fat-free mass (FFM) and fat mass (FM) loss. METHODS: After baseline testing in London (75m), 24 investigators ascended from Kathmandu (1300m) to Everest base camp (EBC 5300m) over 13 days. Fourteen investigators climbed above EBC, eight of whom reached the summit (8848m). Assessments were conducted at baseline, during ascent and after one, six and eight week(s) of arrival at EBC. Changes in body composition (FM, FFM, total body water, intra- and extra-cellular water) were measured by bioelectrical impedance. Biomarkers of nitric oxide and oxidative stress were measured together with adipokines, inflammatory, metabolic and vascular markers. RESULTS: Participants lost a substantial, but variable, amount of body weight (7.3±4.9kg by expedition end; p<0.001). A progressive loss of both FM and FFM was observed, and after eight weeks, the proportion of FFM loss was 48% greater than FM loss (p<0.008). Changes in protein carbonyls (p<0.001) were associated with a decline in FM whereas 4-hydroxynonenal (p<0.001) and IL-6 (p<0.001) correlated with FFM loss. GLP-1 (r=-0.45, p<0.001) and nitrite (r=-0.29, p<0.001) concentration changes were associated with FFM loss. In a multivariate model, GLP-1, insulin and nitrite were significant predictors of FFM loss while protein carbonyls were predicted FM loss. CONCLUSIONS: The putative role of GLP-1 and nitrite as mediators of the effects of hypoxia on FFM is an intriguing finding. If confirmed, nutritional and pharmacological interventions targeting these pathways may offer new avenues for prevention and treatment of sarcopenia

Controlling infectious disease outbreaks: Lessons from mathematical modelling.

Accepted versio