A census of Meddies tracked by floats

Recent subsurface float measurements in 27 Mediterranean Water eddies (Meddies) in the Atlantic are grouped together to reveal new information about the pathways of these energetic eddies and how they are often modified and possibly destroyed by collisions with seamounts. Twenty Meddles were tracked in the Iberian Basin west of Portugal, seven in the Canary Basin. During February 1994 14 Meddles were simultaneously observed, 11 of them in the Iberian Basin. Most (69%) of the newly formed Meddles in the Iberian Basin translated southwestward into the vicinity of the Horseshoe Seamounts and probably collided with them. Some Meddles (31%) passed around the northern side of the seamounts and translated southwestward at a typical velocity of 2.0 cm/s into the Canary Basin. Some Meddles observed there were estimated to be up to similar to 5 yr old. Four Meddles in the Canary Basin collided with the Great Meteor Seamounts and three Meddles were inferred to have been destroyed by the collision. Overall an estimated 90% of Meddles collided with major seamounts. The mean time from Meddy formation to a collision with a major seamount was estimated to be around 1.7 yr. Combined with the estimated Meddy formation rate of 17 Meddies/yr from previous work, this suggests that around 29 Meddles co-exist in the North Atlantic. Therefore during February 1994 we observed about half of the population of Meddle

The response of the Western Equatorial Pacific ocean to Westerly wind bursts during november 1989 to january 1990

Several 5 to 10 m s-1 westerly wind bursts of 10-15 days' duration occurred in the Western Equatorial Pacific during november 1989 to January 1990. The response to these wind bursts was characterized by a 400- to 600 km wide eastward jet in the upper 100-150 m along the equator between 135°E and the date line. Flow in this jet accelarated to speeds of over 100 cm s-1 within 1 week after the onset of westerly winds in november 1989 in association with super thyphoon Irma. In addition, a 20 to 40 cm s-1 westward counterflow developed between 2°N and 2°S below the surface jet separating it from the eastward flow of the Equatorial undercurrent in the thermocline. Changes in surface layer zonal volume transport in the Western Pacific due to westerly wind bursts were 25-56 Sv based on comparison of three shipboard velocity transects in november and december 1989. Although fluctuations in current speeds in the thermocline were generally smaller and less directly related to local wind forcing than those in the surface layer, the Equatorial undercurrent decelerated to less than 20 cm s-1 (i.e., less than half its speed before the onset of westerlies) by early december 1989. (D'après résumé d'auteur

Association of HLA types A1-B8-DR3 and B27 with rapid and slow progression of HIV disease

We examined how HLA types A1-B8-DR3 and B27 were related to progression of clinical disease and rate of loss of CD4 lymphocytes in the Edinburgh City Hospital cohort of HIV-positive patients, mainly injection drug users. Patients (n = 692) were prospectively followed from 1985 through March 1994. Accurately estimated seroconversion times were determined retrospectively for a subgroup of 313 (45%). Of 262 patients (39%) who were fully or partially HLA typed, 155 (50%) had known seroconversions. Of 34 patients typed positive for A1-B8-DR3, 29 progressed to CDC stage IV, 22 to AIDS and 20 died. Twelve patients were typed positive for B27; six of these progressed to CDC stage IV, one to AIDS and none died. In a proportional hazards analysis of the 313 patients with known seroconversions, A1-B8-DR3 was significantly associated with covariate-adjusted relative risks of 3.7 (95% CI 1.9-7.2), 3.1 (1.6-6.0) and 1.9 (1.1-3.2) for progression from seroconversion to death, AIDS and CDC stage IV, respectively. Events for B27 were too rare to include B27 in analyses to death and AIDS, but B27 was significantly associated with slower progression to CDC stage IV (0.3, CI 0.1-0.9). Random effects growth curve models were used to estimate individual rates of loss of square root CD4 count and loss of CD4 percentage, for 603 and 617 patients, respectively. A1-B8-DR3 was associated with rapid loss of both markers (p=0.02 and p = 0.01, respectively); B27 was associated with slow loss of both markers (p=0.04 and p<0.005

Discrete eddies in the northern North Atlantic as observed by looping RAFOS floats

Author Posting. © The Authors, 2004. This is the author's version of the work. It is posted here by permission of Elsevier B.V. for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Deep Sea Research Part II: Topical Studies in Oceanography 52 (2005): 627-650, doi:10.1016/j.dsr2.2004.12.011.RAFOS float trajectories near the 27.5 density level were analyzed to investigate discrete eddies in the northern North Atlantic with the objective of determining their geographical distribution and characteristics. Floats that made two or more consecutive loops in the same direction (loopers) were considered to have been in an eddy. Overall 15% (24 float years) of the float data were in loopers. One hundred and eight loopers were identified in 96 different eddies. Roughly half of the eddies were cyclonic (49%) and half were anticyclonic (51%), although the percentages varied in different regions. A few eddies were quasi-stationary for long times, one for over a year in the Iceland Basin, and many others clearly translated, often in the direction of the general circulation as observed by non-looping floats. Several floats were trapped in eddies in the vicinity of the North Atlantic Current just upstream (west) of the Charlie Gibbs (52ºN) and Faraday (50ºN) Fracture Zones, which seem to be preferred routes for flow crossing the mid-Atlantic ridge. Five floats looped in four anticyclones which translated southwestward away from the eastern boundary near the Goban Spur (47ºN-50ºN). These could have been weak meddies forming from remnants of warm salty Mediterranean Water advected northward along the eastern boundary.Funds for this research were provided by National Science Foundation grants OCE-9531877 to WHOI and OCE-9906775 to URI. This work was also supported by a grant from the WHOI Associates

Hurricane flooding and acute gastrointestinal illness in North Carolina

Hurricanes often flood homes and industries, spreading pathogens. Contact with pathogen-contaminated water can result in diarrhea, vomiting, and/or nausea, known collectively as acute gastrointestinal illness (AGI). Hurricanes Matthew and Florence caused record-breaking flooding in North Carolina (NC) in October 2016 and September 2018, respectively. To examine the relationship between hurricane flooding and AGI in NC, we first calculated the percent of each ZIP code flooded after Hurricanes Matthew and Florence. Rates of all-cause AGI emergency department (ED) visits were calculated from NC's ED surveillance system data. Using controlled interrupted time series, we compared AGI ED visit rates during the three weeks after each hurricane in ZIP codes with a third or more of their area flooded to the predicted rates had these hurricanes not occurred, based on AGI 2016–2019 ED trends, and controlling for AGI ED visit rates in unflooded areas. We examined alternative case definitions (bacterial AGI) and effect measure modification by race and age. We observed an 11% increase (rate ratio (RR): 1.11, 95% CI: 1.00, 1.23) in AGI ED visit rates after Hurricanes Matthew and Florence. This effect was particularly strong among American Indian patients and patients aged 65 years and older after Florence and elevated among Black patients for both hurricanes. Florence's effect was more consistent than Matthew's effect, possibly because little rain preceded Florence and heavy rain preceded Matthew. When restricted to bacterial AGI, we found an 85% (RR: 1.85, 95% CI: 1.37, 2.34) increase in AGI ED visit rate after Florence, but no increase after Matthew. Hurricane flooding is associated with an increase in AGI ED visit rate, although the strength of effect may depend on total storm rainfall or antecedent rainfall. American Indians and Black people—historically pushed to less desirable, flood-prone land—may be at higher risk for AGI after storms

Patterns of Children’s Blood Lead Screening and Blood Lead Levels in North Carolina, 2011–2018—Who Is Tested, Who Is Missed?

BACKGROUND: No safe level of lead in blood has been identified. Blood lead testing is required for children on Medicaid, but it is at the discretion of providers and parents for others. Elevated blood lead levels (EBLLs) cannot be identified in children who are not tested. OBJECTIVES: The aims of this research were to identify determinants of lead testing and EBLLs among North Carolina children and estimate the number of additional children with EBLLs among those not tested. METHODS: We linked geocoded North Carolina birth certificates from 2011–2016 to 2010 U.S. Census data and North Carolina blood lead test results from 2011–2018. We estimated the probability of being screened for lead and created inverse probability (IP) of testing weights. We evaluated the risk of an EBLL of ≥3 lg=dL at <30 months of age, conditional on characteristics at birth, using generalized linear models and then applied IP weights to account for missing blood lead results among unscreened children. We estimated the number of additional children with EBLLs of all North Carolina children using the IP-weighted population and bootstrapping to produce 95% credible intervals (CrI). RESULTS: Mothers of the 63.5% of children (402,002 of 633,159) linked to a blood lead test result were disproportionately young, Hispanic, Black, American Indian, or on Medicaid. In full models, maternal age ≤20 y [risk ratio ðRRÞ = 1:10; 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.13, 1.20] or smoking (RR = 1.14; 95% CI: 1.12, 1.17); proximity to a major roadway (RR = 1.10; 95% CI: 1.05, 1.15); proximity to a lead-releasing Toxics Release Inventory site (RR = 1.08; 95% CI: 1.03, 1.14) or a National Emissions Inventory site (RR = 1.11; 95% CI: 1.07, 1.14); and living in neighborhoods with more housing built before 1950 (RR = 1.10; 95% CI: 1.05, 1.14) or before 1940 (RR = 1.18; 95% CI: 1.11, 1.25) or more vacant housing (RR = 1.14; 95% CI: 1.11, 1.17) were associated with an increased risk of EBLL, whereas overlap with a public water service system was associated with a decreased risk of EBLL (RR = 0.85; 95% CI: 0.83, 0.87). Children of Black mothers were no more likely than children of White mothers to have EBLLs (RR = 0.98; 95% CI: 0.96, 1.01). Complete blood lead screening in 2011–2018 may have identified an additional 17,543 (95% CrI: 17,462, 17,650) children with EBLLs ≥3 lg=dL. DISCUSSION: Our results indicate that current North Carolina lead screening strategies fail to identify over 30% (17,543 of 57,398) of children with subclinical lead poisoning and that accounting for characteristics at birth alters the conclusions about racial disparities in children’s EBLLs

Conformal mapping methods for interfacial dynamics

The article provides a pedagogical review aimed at graduate students in materials science, physics, and applied mathematics, focusing on recent developments in the subject. Following a brief summary of concepts from complex analysis, the article begins with an overview of continuous conformal-map dynamics. This includes problems of interfacial motion driven by harmonic fields (such as viscous fingering and void electromigration), bi-harmonic fields (such as viscous sintering and elastic pore evolution), and non-harmonic, conformally invariant fields (such as growth by advection-diffusion and electro-deposition). The second part of the article is devoted to iterated conformal maps for analogous problems in stochastic interfacial dynamics (such as diffusion-limited aggregation, dielectric breakdown, brittle fracture, and advection-diffusion-limited aggregation). The third part notes that all of these models can be extended to curved surfaces by an auxilliary conformal mapping from the complex plane, such as stereographic projection to a sphere. The article concludes with an outlook for further research.Comment: 37 pages, 12 (mostly color) figure

Caribbean Current variability and the influence of the Amazon and Orinoco freshwater plumes

Author Posting. © Elsevier, 2007. This is the author's version of the work. It is posted here by permission of Elsevier for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Deep Sea Research Part I: Oceanographic Research Papers 54 (2007): 1451-1473, doi:10.1016/j.dsr.2007.04.021.The variability of the Caribbean Current is studied in terms of the influence on its dynamics of the freshwater inflow from the Orinoco and Amazon rivers. Sea-surface salinity maps of the eastern Caribbean and SeaWiFS color images show that a freshwater plume from the Orinoco and Amazon Rivers extends seasonally northwestward across the Caribbean basin, from August to November, 3 to 4 months after the peak of the seasonal rains in northeastern South America. The plume is sustained by two main inflows from the North Brazil Current and its current rings. The southern inflow enters the Caribbean Sea south of Grenada Island and becomes the main branch of the Caribbean Current in the southern Caribbean. The northern inflow (14°N) passes northward around the Grenadine Islands and St. Vincent. As North Brazil Current rings stall and decay east of the Lesser Antilles, between 14°N and 18°N, they release freshwater into the northern part of the eastern Caribbean Sea merging with inflow from the North Equatorial Current. Velocity vectors derived from surface drifters in the eastern Caribbean indicate three westward flowing jets: (1) the southern and fastest at 11°N; (2) the center and second fastest at 14°N; (3) the northern and slowest at 17°N. The center jet (14°N) flows faster between the months of August and December and is located near the southern part of the freshwater plume. Using the MICOM North Atlantic simulation, it is shown that the Caribbean Current is seasonally intensified near 14°N, partly by the inflow of river plumes. Three to four times more anticyclonic eddies are formed during August-December, which agrees with a pronounced rise in the number of anticyclonic looper days in the drifter data then. A climatology-forced regional simulation embedding only the northern (14°N) Caribbean Current (without the influence of the vorticity of the NBC rings), using the ROMS model, shows that the low salinity plume coincides with a negative potential vorticity anomaly that intensifies the center jet located at the salinity front. The jet forms cyclones south of the plume, which are moved northwestward as the anticyclonic circulation intensifies in the eastern Caribbean Sea, north of 14°N. Friction on the shelves of the Greater Antilles also generates cyclones, which propagate westward and eastward from 67°W.The study was supported by National Science Foundation grants OCE 03-271808 and OCE 01-36477

The Science of Sungrazers, Sunskirters, and Other Near-Sun Comets

This review addresses our current understanding of comets that venture close to the Sun, and are hence exposed to much more extreme conditions than comets that are typically studied from Earth. The extreme solar heating and plasma environments that these objects encounter change many aspects of their behaviour, thus yielding valuable information on both the comets themselves that complements other data we have on primitive solar system bodies, as well as on the near-solar environment which they traverse. We propose clear definitions for these comets: We use the term near-Sun comets to encompass all objects that pass sunward of the perihelion distance of planet Mercury (0.307 AU). Sunskirters are defined as objects that pass within 33 solar radii of the Sun’s centre, equal to half of Mercury’s perihelion distance, and the commonly-used phrase sungrazers to be objects that reach perihelion within 3.45 solar radii, i.e. the fluid Roche limit. Finally, comets with orbits that intersect the solar photosphere are termed sundivers. We summarize past studies of these objects, as well as the instruments and facilities used to study them, including space-based platforms that have led to a recent revolution in the quantity and quality of relevant observations. Relevant comet populations are described, including the Kreutz, Marsden, Kracht, and Meyer groups, near-Sun asteroids, and a brief discussion of their origins. The importance of light curves and the clues they provide on cometary composition are emphasized, together with what information has been gleaned about nucleus parameters, including the sizes and masses of objects and their families, and their tensile strengths. The physical processes occurring at these objects are considered in some detail, including the disruption of nuclei, sublimation, and ionisation, and we consider the mass, momentum, and energy loss of comets in the corona and those that venture to lower altitudes. The different components of comae and tails are described, including dust, neutral and ionised gases, their chemical reactions, and their contributions to the near-Sun environment. Comet-solar wind interactions are discussed, including the use of comets as probes of solar wind and coronal conditions in their vicinities. We address the relevance of work on comets near the Sun to similar objects orbiting other stars, and conclude with a discussion of future directions for the field and the planned ground- and space-based facilities that will allow us to address those science topics