Wild dogma: An examination of recent "evidence" for dingo regulation of invasive mesopredator release in Australia

There is growing interest in the role that apex predators play in shaping terrestrial ecosystems and maintaining trophic cascades. In line with the mesopredator release hypothesis, Australian dingoes (Canis lupus dingo and hybrids) are assumed by many to regulate the abundance of invasive mesopredators, such as red foxes Vulpes vulpes and feral cats Felis catus, thereby providing indirect benefits to various threatened vertebrates. Several recent papers have claimed to provide evidence for the biodiversity benefits of dingoes in this way. Nevertheless, in this paper we highlight several critical weaknesses in the methodological approaches used in many of these reports, including lack of consideration for seasonal and habitat differences in activity, the complication of simple track-based indices by incorporating difficult-to-meet assumptions, and a reduction in sensitivity for assessing populations by using binary measures rather than potentially continuous measures. Of the 20 studies reviewed, 15 of them (75%) contained serious methodological flaws, which may partly explain the inconclusive nature of the literature investigating interactions between invasive Australian predators. We therefore assert that most of the "growing body of evidence" for mesopredator release is merely an inconclusive growing body of literature only. We encourage those interested in studying the ecological roles of dingoes relative to invasive mesopredators and native prey species to account for the factors we identify, and caution the value of studies that have not done so

Earthquake Prediction and Hazards Evaluation in the Year 2000 -- A Dialogue

Decisionmakers have different perspectives about geologic hazards than scientists and engineers. These differences, which have been summarized by Szanton (1981, table 3-1), are the reasons that implementation of loss reduction measures are difficult. The differences are: The ultimate objective of the decisionmaker is the approval of the electorate; it is the respect of peers for the scientist/engineer; The time horizon for the decisionmaker is short; it is long for the scientist/engineer; The focus of the decisionmaker is on the external logic of the problem; it is on the internal logic for the scientist/engineer; The mode of thought for the decisionmaker is deductive and particular; it is inductive and generic for the scientist/engineer; The most valued outcome for the decisionmaker is a reliable solution; it is original insight for the scientist/engineer; The mode of expression is simple and absolute for the decisionmaker; it is abstruse and qualified for the scientist/engineer, and; The preferred form of conclusion for the decisionmaker is one of "best solution" with uncertainties submerged; it is multiple possibilities with uncertainties emphasized for the scientist/engineer. With these principles in mind, let us now turn the clock forward to the year 2000 and a discussion between a decisionmaker and a scientist as they seek to resolve their philosophical differences and reach solutions to problems of earthquake-hazards reduction

Evaluating and validating abundance monitoring methods in the absence of populations of known size: review and application to a passive tracking index

Rarely is it possible to obtain absolute numbers in free-ranging populations and although various direct and indirect methods are used to estimate abundance, few are validated against populations of known size. In this paper, we apply grounding, calibration and verification methods, used to validate mathematical models, to methods of estimating relative abundance. To illustrate how this might be done, we consider and evaluate the widely applied passive tracking index (PTI) methodology. Using published data, we examine the rationality of PTI methodology, how conceptually animal activity and abundance are related and how alternative methods are subject to similar biases or produce similar abundance estimates and trends.We then attune the method against populations representing a range of densities likely to be encountered in the field. Finally, we compare PTI trends against a prediction that adjacent populations of the same species will have similar abundance values and trends in activity. We show that while PTI abundance estimates are subject to environmental and behavioural stochasticity peculiar to each species, the PTI method and associated variance estimate showed high probability of detection, high precision of abundance values and, generally, low variability between surveys, and suggest that the PTI method applied using this procedure and for these species provides a sensitive and credible index of abundance. This same or similar validation approach can and should be applied to alternative relative abundance methods in order to demonstrate their credibility and justify their use

The role of Volatile Anesthetics in Cardioprotection: a systematic review.

This review evaluates the mechanism of volatile anesthetics as cardioprotective agents in both clinical and laboratory research and furthermore assesses possible cardiac side effects upon usage. Cardiac as well as non-cardiac surgery may evoke perioperative adverse events including: ischemia, diverse arrhythmias and reperfusion injury. As volatile anesthetics have cardiovascular effects that can lead to hypotension, clinicians may choose to administer alternative anesthetics to patients with coronary artery disease, particularly if the patient has severe preoperative ischemia or cardiovascular instability. Increasing preclinical evidence demonstrated that administration of inhaled anesthetics - before and during surgery - reduces the degree of ischemia and reperfusion injury to the heart. Recently, this preclinical data has been implemented clinically, and beneficial effects have been found in some studies of patients undergoing coronary artery bypass graft surgery. Administration of volatile anesthetic gases was protective for patients undergoing cardiac surgery through manipulation of the potassium ATP (KATP) channel, mitochondrial permeability transition pore (mPTP), reactive oxygen species (ROS) production, as well as through cytoprotective Akt and extracellular-signal kinases (ERK) pathways. However, as not all studies have demonstrated improved outcomes, the risks for undesirable hemodynamic effects must be weighed against the possible benefits of using volatile anesthetics as a means to provide cardiac protection in patients with coronary artery disease who are undergoing surgery

Parasites on parasites:Coupled fluctuations in stacked contact processes

We present a model for host-parasite dynamics which incorporates both vertical and horizontal transmission as well as spatial structure. Our model consists of stacked contact processes (CP), where the dynamics of the host is a simple CP on a lattice while the dynamics of the parasite is a secondary CP which sits on top of the host-occupied sites. In the simplest case, where infection does not incur any cost, we uncover a novel effect: a non-monotonic dependence of parasite prevalence on host turnover. Inspired by natural examples of hyperparasitism, we extend our model to multiple levels of parasites and identify a transition between the maintenance of a finite and infinite number of levels, which we conjecture is connected to a roughening transition in models of surface growth

Spatial patterns and functional redundancies in a changing boreal lake landscape

Global transformations extend beyond local habitats; therefore, larger-scale approaches are needed to assess community-level responses and resilience to unfolding environmental changes. Using long-term data (1996-2011), we evaluated spatial patterns and functional redundancies in the littoral invertebrate communities of 85 Swedish lakes, with the objective of assessing their potential resilience to environmental change at regional scales (that is, spatial resilience). Multivariate spatial modeling was used to differentiate groups of invertebrate species exhibiting spatial patterns in composition and abundance (that is, deterministic species) from those lacking spatial patterns (that is, stochastic species). We then determined the functional feeding attributes of the deterministic and stochastic invertebrate species, to infer resilience. Between one and three distinct spatial patterns in invertebrate composition and abundance were identified in approximately one-third of the species; the remainder were stochastic. We observed substantial differences in metrics between deterministic and stochastic species. Functional richness and diversity decreased over time in the deterministic group, suggesting a loss of resilience in regional invertebrate communities. However, taxon richness and redundancy increased monotonically in the stochastic group, indicating the capacity of regional invertebrate communities to adapt to change. Our results suggest that a refined picture of spatial resilience emerges if patterns of both the deterministic and stochastic species are accounted for. Spatially extensive monitoring may help increase our mechanistic understanding of community-level responses and resilience to regional environmental change, insights that are critical for developing management and conservation agendas in this current period of rapid environmental transformation

Audit of antenatal clinic for high-risk obstetric patients; activity and outcomes

A specialised clinic for the antenatal care of high-risk patients was established in Cork in January 2004. It is led by 2 specialists in materno-fetal medicine and provides care for patients from a large catchment area. Small clinic numbers, specialised midwives, ready access to medical experts and fetal assessment facilities, facilitate an efficient use of resources. We report on the experience and outcomes of this clinic after the first year in operation. A database was set up to store relevant information on patients who attended the clinic in 2004. 143 patients attended. Risk categories included maternal medical disease (62%); multiple pregnancy (11%); previous poor obstetric history (10%); fetal anomaly (8%). Average gestation; 35.9 weeks, average birth weight; 2598g. Caesarean section rate; 41%. Perinatal mortality rate 67 per 1000 (uncorrected); and 20% neonates required NICU care. This approach to highrisk obstetric care resulted in favourable outcomes. The management strategy applied in Cork may be a suitable prototype for comparable areas throughout Ireland

Representations of Time Coordinates in FITS

In a series of three previous papers, formulation and specifics of the representation of World Coordinate Transformations in FITS data have been presented. This fourth paper deals with encoding time. Time on all scales and precisions known in astronomical datasets is to be described in an unambiguous, complete, and self-consistent manner. Employing the well--established World Coordinate System (WCS) framework, and maintaining compatibility with the FITS conventions that are currently in use to specify time, the standard is extended to describe rigorously the time coordinate. World coordinate functions are defined for temporal axes sampled linearly and as specified by a lookup table. The resulting standard is consistent with the existing FITS WCS standards and specifies a metadata set that achieves the aims enunciated above.Comment: FITS WCS Paper IV: Time. 27 pages, 11 table

Sympatric prey responses to lethal top-predator control: predator manipulation experiments

Introduction: Many prey species around the world are suffering declines due to a variety of interacting causes such as land use change, climate change, invasive species and novel disease. Recent studies on the ecological roles of top-predators have suggested that lethal top-predator control by humans (typically undertaken to protect livestock or managed game from predation) is an indirect additional cause of prey declines through trophic cascade effects. Such studies have prompted calls to prohibit lethal top-predator control with the expectation that doing so will result in widespread benefits for biodiversity at all trophic levels. However, applied experiments investigating in situ responses of prey populations to contemporary top-predator management practices are few and none have previously been conducted on the eclectic suite of native and exotic mammalian, reptilian, avian and amphibian predator and prey taxa we simultaneously assess. We conducted a series of landscape-scale, multi-year, manipulative experiments at nine sites spanning five ecosystem types across the Australian continental rangelands to investigate the responses of sympatric prey populations to contemporary poison-baiting programs intended to control top-predators (dingoes) for livestock protection. Results: Prey populations were almost always in similar or greater abundances in baited areas. Short-term prey responses to baiting were seldom apparent. Longer-term prey population trends fluctuated independently of baiting for every prey species at all sites, and divergence or convergence of prey population trends occurred rarely. Top-predator population trends fluctuated independently of baiting in all cases, and never did diverge or converge. Mesopredator population trends likewise fluctuated independently of baiting in almost all cases, but did diverge or converge in a few instances. Conclusions: These results demonstrate that Australian populations of prey fauna at lower trophic levels are typically unaffected by top-predator control because top-predator populations are not substantially affected by contemporary control practices, thus averting a trophic cascade. We conclude that alteration of current top-predator management practices is probably unnecessary for enhancing fauna recovery in the Australian rangelands. More generally, our results suggest that theoretical and observational studies advancing the idea that lethal control of top-predators induces trophic cascades may not be as universal as previously supposed