Metabolic syndrome and 10-year cardiovascular disease risk in the Hoorn study

BACKGROUND: Different definitions of the metabolic syndrome have been proposed. Their value in a clinical setting to assess cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk is still unclear. We compared the definitions proposed by the National Cholesterol Education Program Adult Treatment Panel III (NCEP), World Health Organization (WHO), European Group for the Study of Insulin Resistance (EGIR), and American College of Endocrinology (ACE) with respect to the prevalence of the metabolic syndrome and the association with 10-year risk of fatal and nonfatal CVD. METHODS AND RESULTS: The Hoorn Study is a population-based cohort study. The present study population comprised 615 men and 749 women aged 50 to 75 years and without diabetes or a history of CVD at baseline in 1989 to 1990. The prevalence of the metabolic syndrome at baseline ranged from 17% to 32%. The NCEP definition was associated with about a 2-fold increase in age-adjusted risk of fatal CVD in men and nonfatal CVD in women. For the WHO, EGIR, and ACE definitions, these hazard ratios were slightly lower. Risk increased with the number of risk factors. Elevated insulin levels were more prevalent in subjects with multiple risk factors, but metabolic syndrome definitions including elevated insulin level were not more strongly associated with risk. CONCLUSIONS: The metabolic syndrome, however defined, is associated with an approximate 2-fold increased risk of incident cardiovascular morbidity and mortality in a European population. In clinical practice, a more informative assessment can be obtained by taking into account the number of individual risk factor

Continuum modelling of granular particle flow with inelastic inter-particle collisions

The kinetic theory of granular flow is a successful model for gas-solid flows. However, inelastic collisions between particles, among other mechanisms, cause agglomeration of particles, which may be the reason why undue sensitivity of the model to any slight inelasticity in inter-particle collisions has been seen previously. In contrast to a dry (i.e. no interstitial gas) granular system, this tendency to agglomerate in a gas driven two-phase system may be countered by the carrier gas turbulence. In this paper, a heuristic model for particle gas turbulence interaction is introduced within the scope of a generalized kinetic theory model which incorporates the carrier fluid effect on particulate stresses. The numerical results for the flow of granular particles in vertical pipes, which considers slightly inelastic inter-particle collisions, are in reasonably good agreement with published experimental data. Even in this relatively simple model, the results indicate that the interactions between the particle phase and gas turbulence need to be appropriately addressed in any kinetic theory based model for gas solid flows

Patterns of ‘balancing between hope and despair’ in the diagnostic phase: a grounded theory study of patients on a gastroenterology ward

Aim: The aim of the study was to learn how patients going through the diagnostic phase experienced and handled their situation. Background: Many studies report about the stressful diagnostic phase; however, none has presented a conceptual theory where the concepts are sufficiently related to each other. The Theory of Preparative Waiting has previously been published as a descriptive grounded theory and describes the experience of a group of gastroenterology patients going through the diagnostic phase. Method: A classical grounded theory design was used, with data derived from 18 in-depth interviews with 15 patients in a gastroenterology ward at a Norwegian University Hospital. Interviews were conducted during 2002–2003. Findings: Participants’ main concern was found to be how they could prepare themselves for the concluding interview and life after diagnosis. The theoretical code of ‘balancing’ had four patterns; controlling pain, rational awaiting, denial, and accepting. These patterns of ‘balancing’ guided how participants used the categories of ‘Preparative Waiting Theory’ ‘seeking and giving information’, ‘interpreting clues’, ‘handling existential threats’ and ‘seeking respite’. Patterns were strategies, so one person could use more than one pattern. Conclusion: The diagnostic phase was a difficult time for the participants and the ‘Preparative Waiting Theory’ can assist nurses in assessing how patients prepare themselves differently for getting a diagnosis. All patients would find it helpful to be followed up by a designated contact person at the ward; however, patients using mostly the patterns of controlling pain and denial would benefit most from such support

Interpreting Helioseismic Structure Inversion Results of Solar Active Regions

Helioseismic techniques such as ring-diagram analysis have often been used to determine the subsurface structural differences between solar active and quiet regions. Results obtained by inverting the frequency differences between the regions are usually interpreted as the sound-speed differences between them. These in turn are used as a measure of temperature and magnetic-field strength differences between the two regions. In this paper we first show that the "sound-speed" difference obtained from inversions is actually a combination of sound-speed difference and a magnetic component. Hence, the inversion result is not directly related to the thermal structure. Next, using solar models that include magnetic fields, we develop a formulation to use the inversion results to infer the differences in the magnetic and thermal structures between active and quiet regions. We then apply our technique to existing structure inversion results for different pairs of active and quiet regions. We find that the effect of magnetic fields is strongest in a shallow region above 0.985R_sun and that the strengths of magnetic-field effects at the surface and in the deeper (r < 0.98R_sun) layers are inversely related, i.e., the stronger the surface magnetic field the smaller the magnetic effects in the deeper layers, and vice versa. We also find that the magnetic effects in the deeper layers are the strongest in the quiet regions, consistent with the fact that these are basically regions with weakest magnetic fields at the surface. Because the quiet regions were selected to precede or follow their companion active regions, the results could have implications about the evolution of magnetic fields under active regions.Comment: Accepted for publication in Solar Physic

Active thrust sheet deformation over multiple rupture cycles: A quantitative basis for relating terrace folds to fault slip rates

Many recent thrust fault earthquakes have involved coseismic surface faulting and folding, revealing the multifaceted nature of active thrust sheet deformation. We integrate records of surface deformation, subsurface structure and geochronology to investigate active surface deformation over multiple rupture cycles across the Southern Junggar Thrust (SJT) in the southern Junggar basin, NW China. Fluvial terrace geometries – extracted from a 1-m digital elevation model – reveal records of surface faulting across a prominent fault scarp. In addition, terraces exhibit progressive folding across fold scarps. Fault and fold scarps are spatially coincident with a surface-emergent SJT splay and subsurface fault bends along the SJT, respectively, constrained by seismic reflection data. We quantify the magnitude of fault slip at depth implied by fold scarps along Holocene-aged terraces. Our method yields results consistent with independent estimates of slip implied by fault scarp relief for the same terraces. Four late Quaternary terrace records are less continuous, preserved only as fold scarps that suggest folding kinematics involving a component of limb rotation. We develop a new method for quantifying fault slip at depth from terrace folds using a mechanical forward modeling approach. Our analysis yields quantitative relations between fold dip and fault slip, allowing us to quantify SJT fault slip from terrace folds from ~250 ka- present. SJT fault slip rate has decelerated from ~7.0 mm/yr in the Late Quaternary to ~1.3 mm/yr throughout the Holocene. These results provide new insight into the kinematics of fault-bend folding for natural structures and define new methods to accurately estimate fault slip and slip rates from terrace folds in active thrust sheets

Cosmological Evolution of Brane World Moduli

We study cosmological consequences of non-constant brane world moduli in five dimensional brane world models with bulk scalars and two boundary branes. We focus on the case where the brane tension is an exponential function of the bulk scalar field, $U_b \propto \exp{(\alpha \phi)}$. In the limit $\alpha \to 0$, the model reduces to the two-brane model of Randall-Sundrum, whereas larger values of $\alpha$ allow for a less warped bulk geometry. Using the moduli space approximation, we derive the four-dimensional low-energy effective action from a supergravity-inspired five-dimensional theory. For arbitrary values of $\alpha$, the resulting theory has the form of a bi-scalar-tensor theory. We show that, in order to be consistent with local gravitational observations, $\alpha$ has to be small (less than $10^{-2}$) and the separation of the branes must be large. We study the cosmological evolution of the interbrane distance and the bulk scalar field for different matter contents on each branes. Our findings indicate that attractor solutions exist which drive the moduli fields towards values consistent with observations. The efficiency of the attractor mechanism crucially depends on the matter content on each branes. In the five-dimensional description, the attractors correspond to the motion of the negative tension brane towards a bulk singularity, which signals the eventual breakdown of the four-dimensional description and the necessity of a better understanding of the bulk singularity.Comment: 18 pages, 10 figures, typos and factor of 2 corrected, version to appear in Physical Review

Scale-free memory model for multiagent reinforcement learning. Mean field approximation and rock-paper-scissors dynamics

A continuous time model for multiagent systems governed by reinforcement learning with scale-free memory is developed. The agents are assumed to act independently of one another in optimizing their choice of possible actions via trial-and-error search. To gain awareness about the action value the agents accumulate in their memory the rewards obtained from taking a specific action at each moment of time. The contribution of the rewards in the past to the agent current perception of action value is described by an integral operator with a power-law kernel. Finally a fractional differential equation governing the system dynamics is obtained. The agents are considered to interact with one another implicitly via the reward of one agent depending on the choice of the other agents. The pairwise interaction model is adopted to describe this effect. As a specific example of systems with non-transitive interactions, a two agent and three agent systems of the rock-paper-scissors type are analyzed in detail, including the stability analysis and numerical simulation. Scale-free memory is demonstrated to cause complex dynamics of the systems at hand. In particular, it is shown that there can be simultaneously two modes of the system instability undergoing subcritical and supercritical bifurcation, with the latter one exhibiting anomalous oscillations with the amplitude and period growing with time. Besides, the instability onset via this supercritical mode may be regarded as "altruism self-organization". For the three agent system the instability dynamics is found to be rather irregular and can be composed of alternate fragments of oscillations different in their properties.Comment: 17 pages, 7 figur

Mycobacterium pseudoshottsii sp. nov., a slowly growing chromogenic species isolated from Chesapeake Bay striped bass (Morone saxatilis)

A group of slowly growing photochromogenic mycobacteria was isolated from Chesapeake Bay striped bass (Morone saxatilis) during an epizootic of mycobacteriosis. Growth characteristics, acid-fastness and 16S rRNA gene sequencing results were consistent with those of the genus Mycobacterium. Biochemical reactions, growth characteristics and mycolic acid profiles (HPLC) resembled those of Mycobacterium shottsii, a non-pigmented mycobacterium also isolated during the same epizootic. Sequencing of the 16S rRNA genes, the gene encoding the exported repeated protein (erp) and the gene encoding the 65 kDa heat-shock protein (hsp65) and restriction enzyme analysis of the hsp65 gene demonstrated that this group of isolates is unique. Insertion sequences associated with Mycobacterium ulcerans, IS2404 and IS2606, were detected by PCR. These isolates could be differentiated from other slowly growing pigmented mycobacteria by their inability to grow at 37 degrees C, production of niacin and urease, absence of nitrate reductase, negative Tween 80 hydrolysis and resistance to isoniazid (1 mug ml(-1)), p-nitrobenzoic acid, thiacetazone and thiophene-2-carboxylic hydrazide. On the basis of this polyphasic study, it is proposed that these isolates represent a novel species, Mycobacterium pseudoshottsii sp. nov. The type strain, L15(T), has been deposited in the American Type Culture Collection as ATCC BAA-883(T) and the National Collection of Type Cultures (UK) as NCTC 13318(T)

Weak lensing, dark matter and dark energy

Weak gravitational lensing is rapidly becoming one of the principal probes of dark matter and dark energy in the universe. In this brief review we outline how weak lensing helps determine the structure of dark matter halos, measure the expansion rate of the universe, and distinguish between modified gravity and dark energy explanations for the acceleration of the universe. We also discuss requirements on the control of systematic errors so that the systematics do not appreciably degrade the power of weak lensing as a cosmological probe.Comment: Invited review article for the GRG special issue on gravitational lensing (P. Jetzer, Y. Mellier and V. Perlick Eds.). V3: subsection on three-point function and some references added. Matches the published versio

Silicic conduits as supersized tuffisites:Clastogenic influences on shifting eruption styles at Cordón Caulle volcano (Chile)

Understanding the processes that drive explosive-effusive transitions during large silicic eruptions is crucial to hazard mitigation. Conduit models usually treat magma ascent and degassing as a gradual, unidirectional progression from bubble nucleation through magmatic fragmentation. However, there is growing evidence for the importance of bi-directional clastogenic processes that sinter fragmented materials into coherent clastogenic magmas. Bombs that were ejected immediately before the first emergence of lava in the 2011–2012 eruption at Cordón Caulle volcano (Chile) are texturally heterogeneous composite assemblages of welded pyroclastic material. Although diverse in density and appearance, SEM and X-ray tomographic analysis show them all to have been formed by multi-generational viscous sintering of fine ash. Sintering created discrete clasts ranging from obsidian to pumice and formed a pervasive clast-supporting matrix that assembled these clasts into a conduit-sealing plug. An evaluation of sintering timescales reveals texturally disparate bomb components to represent only minutes of difference in residence time within the conduit. Permeability modelling indicates that the plug was an effective conduit seal, with outgassing potential—even from high-porosity regions—being limited by the inability of gas to flow across tendrils of densely sintered inter-clast matrix. Contrary to traditional perspectives, declining expressions of explosivity at the surface need not be preceded or accompanied by a decline in fragmentation efficiency. Instead, they result from tips in balance between the opposing processes of fragmentation and sintering that occur in countless cycles within volcanic conduits. These processes may be particularly enhanced at silicic fissure volcanoes, which have laterally extensive subsurface plumbing systems that require complex magma ascent pathways. The textures investigated here reveal the processes occurring within silicic fissures to be phenomenologically identical to those that have been inferred to occur in tuffisite veins: silicic conduits are essentially supersized examples of edifice-penetrating tuffisites