China: A Tiger only in the East or a World Player in High Quality Fresh Produce Exports?

This paper examines patterns of recent change in Chinas international export trade in high quality fresh-vegetables between 2002 and 2005 since its WTO membership and some of the underlying determinants that will determine its future export opportunities. Concepts of product quality are first reviewed and the key characteristics of Chinas international trade in fresh produce are outlined based on a detailed analysis from the UN Comtrade international trade data at the 2, 4 digit and finally 6 digit levels. High quality fresh and chilled vegetables are identified through their average unit export values. In 2005, China was the 4th largest exporter of vegetables in the world with a 9.8 percent share of world trade, and almost a 6 percent share in fresh and chilled vegetables. The competitiveness of China in world trade in high value fresh produce is assessed through a trade-shares accounting and decomposition approach which enables both structural and performance effects on Chinas exports to be isolated, and the contributions its major trading partners have made to changes its share of world trade. Chinas aggregate market share rose by over 1.5 percentage points over the period, and there is evidence of an emerging orientation in its trade shares from E Asia to SE Asia, and to further progress in the Russian Federation and US markets. Chinas underlying comparative advantage in such labour-intensive products is reflected in the positive performance effect on the increase in its market share.China, vegetables, international trade., International Relations/Trade,

Retail Fish Demand in Great Britain and its Fisheries Management Implications

Over the past 20 years, the demand for fish in the UK has changed markedly. The species prevalent in the consumption mix has altered to reflect the greater availability of farmed species and the decline in some marine-caught species. This paper examines the retail demand for fish in the UK and the implications this has for fisheries policy. A two-stage demand model using a dynamic Almost Ideal Demand System (AIDS) is estimated from retail panel data for fish and fish products in Great Britain.1 Both conditional and unconditional expenditure, own- and cross-price elasticities of demand are derived from the parameter estimates. Haddock, salmon, flatfish, shellfish, and smoked fish are expenditure elastic, implying that income growth will strongly increase demand for these species. Most species are own-price inelastic, suggesting that policy driven catch restrictions can increase expenditure on fish and may reduce the short-run incentives of commercial fishermen to comply.fish demand, UK, unconditional elasticities, Resource /Energy Economics and Policy, D12, Q21, Q22, C51,

MEAT DEMAND IN THE UK: A DIFFERENTIAL APPROACH

A differential approach is employed to analyze demand for meat in the United Kingdom during 1989-99. Differential demand systems with fixed price effects (Rotterdam and CBS) better explain consumersÂ’ retail purchase allocation decisions for beef, lamb, pork, bacon and poultry compared with models containing variable price effects (NBR and differential AIDS). The real expenditures and the Hicksian demand elasticities are generally found to be quite different from earlier studies using AIDS models. A quality change index of meat consumption is constructed from the estimated CBS model estimation results and decomposed into real expenditure, substitution, trend, seasonal and residual effects.meat demand, differential approach, model selection, UK, Demand and Price Analysis,

Will Intergenerational Succession and Our Current Educational Systems Be Sufficient to Provide the Next Generation of Farmers and Researchers?

This paper reviews the implications of the age structure in farming and an aging farm population on productivity and innovation. It discusses the factors determining opportunities for new entrants, including those on family farms, and also those affecting outflow and retirement. The implications of recent international trends in agricultural graduate and post-graduate numbers are considered. Finally, issues and recent initiatives needed to address the problems of attracting new blood and expertise to the industry are outlined

The Initial Impact of WTO Membership on China's Trade Performance in Primary Agricultural And Processed Food Products

There has been much analysis of the potential impact of China's membership of the WTO on world trade in agricultural products but few studies of the actual effects thus far on China's trade performance. This paper compares changes in the competitiveness of China's trade in primary agricultural food and processed food products over the period 1998 to 2003 through a range of comparative advantage measures, the preferred being Revealed Symmetric Comparative Advantage. It also decomposes changes in China's export market share of these products over the period into structural and performance components and identifies where shifts in the global regional distribution of its exports have contributed to changes in its overall market share.China, agricultural, processed foods, exports, competitiveness, International Relations/Trade, Q17, O13,

The Determinants of Aquatic Products Retail Price Fluctuations in China 1978-2000

An empirical model of aquatic product price fluctuations in China has been built using a time series of urban residential and rural panel data, and estimated through cointegration and an error correction model. In the long-run cointegration equation based on urban consumption behaviour, movements in income, average consumption and farmer prices were found to have a signficant impact on aquatic product retail price. In the long-run cointegration equation based on rural consumption behaviour, movements in transitory income, average consumption, rural population and farmer price were significant. The estimate of the dynamic equation reveals a rich autoregressive structure in aquatic product retail prices. In the short-run error-correction equation, movements in income, and average consumption were not found to have a significant impact on aquatic product retail prices based rural and urban consumption behaviour and movements in rural population based on rural consumption behaviour. So the result shows that the consumption of aquatic products had been the logjam. The elasticities of error-correction suggest that adjustment toward the long-run relationship is slow.Keywords: retail price, consumption behaviour, Fisheries Economics, aquatic products, error correction model (ECM), China, cointegration, Demand and SupplyKeywords: retail price, consumption behaviour, Fisheries Economics, aquatic products, error correction model (ECM), China, cointegration, Demand and Suppl

Species traits explaining sensitivity of snakes to human land use estimated from citizen science data

Understanding how traits affect species responses to threats like habitat loss may help prevent extinctions. This may be especially true for understudied taxa for which we have little data to identify declines before it is too late to intervene. We used a metric derived from citizen science data on snake occurrences to determine which traits were most correlated with species' sensitivity to human land use. We found that snake species that feed primarily on vertebrates, that use a high proportion of aquatic habitats, and that have small geographic ranges occurred in more natural and less human-dominated landscapes. In contrast, body size, clutch (or litter) size, the degree of exposure to human-dominated landscapes, reproductive mode, habitat specialization, and whether a species was venomous or not had less effect on their sensitivity to human land use. Our results extend previous findings that higher trophic position is correlated with extinction risk in many vertebrates by showing that snake species that feed primarily on vertebrates are more sensitive to human land use – a primary driver of extinction. It is likely that conversion of natural landscapes for human land use alters biotic communities, causing losses of important trophic groups, especially in aquatic and riparian communities. Practitioners should therefore prioritize preserving aquatic habitat and natural landscapes with intact biotic communities that can support species at higher trophic levels, as well as focus monitoring on populations of range-restricted species

Box-Jenkins Forecasting Models: Comment

Two recent papers in this Review (Vol 47, No.2, August 1979) set out to evaluate alternative forecasting techniques applied in the Australian beef market. The two papers: "Forecasting NSW Beef Production: An Evaluation of Alternative Techniques," by C. Gellatly, and "Comparing the Box-Jenkins and Econometric Techniques for Forecasting Beef Prices" by I.J. Bourke both give rise for some concern at the choice of Box-Jenkins models which were estimated. In consequence the subsequent comparative model evaluations may reflect rather more poorly on the technique than they otherwise might. Although my comments have some features common to both papers, it will be appropriate to deal with each individually

One Man’s Meat…. 2050? Ruminations on future meat demand in the context of global warming.

This paper considers a range of issues relating to the contribution of meat consumption and livestock production to global warming given the need highlighted by the Committee on Climate Change (CCC) to reduce global GHG emissions by over 50% by 2050. The IPCC Climate Change 2014 report recognised that demand oriented measures may also contribute to GHG mitigation. The paper reviews a number of studies which examine demand-led mitigation potentials, concluding that such estimates ignore the market effects of changes in meat consumption habits or demand oriented policies. A simple partial equilibrium model of the beef, poultry, pig and ovine meats is developed for the major regions of the world to explore the impact of a range of scenarios which may reduce meat consumption and GHG emissions. These include emissions taxation, long term trend in reduction of red meat consumption in developed economy regions, and supply side improvements in livestock emissions intensities. The paper discusses problems associated with many published demand elasticities suitable for incorporation into a market model, problems of selection from a widely varying published estimates and their appropriateness for longer run projections. The dearth of published supply elasticity estimates is also highlighted. The modelling concludes that economic and population growth to 2050 without any mitigation measures will lead to a 21% increase in meat consumption and a 63% increase in GHG emissions by 2050. However, the mitigation projections from the scenarios explored only generate a 14% reduction in cumulative emissions from the baseline 2050 projections, insufficient to met the CCC target

Box-Jenkins Forecasting Models: Comment

Two recent papers in this Review (Vol 47, No.2, August 1979) set out to evaluate alternative forecasting techniques applied in the Australian beef market. The two papers: "Forecasting NSW Beef Production: An Evaluation of Alternative Techniques," by C. Gellatly, and "Comparing the Box-Jenkins and Econometric Techniques for Forecasting Beef Prices" by I.J. Bourke both give rise for some concern at the choice of Box-Jenkins models which were estimated. In consequence the subsequent comparative model evaluations may reflect rather more poorly on the technique than they otherwise might. Although my comments have some features common to both papers, it will be appropriate to deal with each individually .Research Methods/ Statistical Methods,