A global geography of synchrony for marine phytoplankton

Aim Spatial synchrony in plankton is imperfectly understood yet may have far-reaching implications, for example for carbon export to the deep ocean. Several techniques have been used to describe patterns of spatial synchrony, from correlation coefficients to spectral methods. Some studies have used temporally extensive data sets to identify causes of synchrony. This study instead uses the exceptional spatial extent provided by remotely sensed data to describe, for the first time as far as we know, geographical patterns of synchrony in marine phytoplankton. We use these patterns to illuminate drivers of synchrony and of its geography. Location The oceans. Time period 2003–2015. Major taxon Chlorophyll a-containing phytoplankton. Methods Synchrony in chlorophyll a concentrations is mapped globally. Spatial statistics and model selection are used to illuminate main statistical determinants of synchrony and of geographical patterns in synchrony. Results The first main result is that there is a pronounced and previously unmapped geography of synchrony for phytoplankton. For instance, synchrony was highest in the open ocean, specifically in gyres, and lowest in coastal regions. Spatial modelling provided the second main result that synchrony in sea surface temperature (SST) was a major statistical determinant of chlorophyll synchrony in both the Pacific and Atlantic Oceans, indicating a strong Moran effect, although possibly an indirect and/or complex one. In the Pacific Ocean, this effect depended on the time-scales on which synchrony was assessed, providing our third result, which is that synchrony of phytoplankton and its geography can be time-scale specific. Synchrony of surface solar irradiance was not associated with synchrony of chlorophyll. Main conclusions To our knowledge, this study is the first to map geography of synchrony in marine plankton. We showed that this geography is pronounced. Geographical patterns illuminated determinants of synchrony. The geography of synchrony is a major phenomenon that has been little explored

A global geography of synchrony for terrestrial vegetation

Aim: Previous work demonstrated a pronounced geography of synchrony for marine phytoplankton, and used that geography to infer statistical environmental determinants of synchrony. He re we determine if terrestrial vegetation (measured by the Enhanced Vegetation Index, EVI) also shows a geography of synchrony, and we infer determinants of EVI synchrony. As vegetation is the basis of the terrestrial food web, changes in spatio - temporal v egetation dynamics may have major consequences. Location: The land. Time period: 2001 - 2014 . Major taxa: Plants . Methods: Synchrony in terrestrial vegetation is mapped globally. Spatial statistics and model selection are used to identify main statistical determinants of synchrony and of geographic patterns in synchrony. Results: The first main result is that there is a pronounced and previously unrecognized geography of synchrony for terrestrial vegetation. Some areas such as the Sahara and Southern Africa exhibited nearly perfect synchrony, whereas other areas such as the Pacific coast of South America showed very little synchrony. Spatial modeling provided the second main result that synchrony in temperature and precipitation were major determinants of sy nchrony in EVI, supporting the presences of dual global Moran effects. These effects depended on the timescales on which 3 synchrony was assessed, providing our third main result: synchrony of EVI and its geography are timescale specific. Main conclusions: T o our knowledge, this study is the first to document the geography of synchrony in terrestrial vegetation . W e showed geographic variation in synchrony is pronounced. We used geographic patterns to identify determinants of synchrony. This study is one of ve ry few studies to demonstrate two separate synchronous environmental variables driving synchrony simultaneously. The geography of synchrony is apparently a major phenomenon that has been little explored

Rapid surrogate testing of wavelet coherences

Background. The use of wavelet coherence methods enables the identification of frequency-dependent relationships between the phases of the fluctuations found in complex systems such as medical and other biological timeseries. These relationships may illuminate the causal mechanisms that relate the variables under investigation. However, computationally intensive statistical testing is required to ensure that apparent phase relationships are statistically significant, taking into account the tendency for spurious phase relationships to manifest in short stretches of data. Methods. In this study we revisit Fourier transform based methods for generating surrogate data, with which we sample the distribution of coherence values associated with the null hypothesis that no actual phase relationship between the variables exists. The properties of this distribution depend on the cross-spectrum of the data. By describing the dependency, we demonstrate how large numbers of values from this distribution can be rapidly generated without the need to generate correspondingly many wavelet transforms. Results. As a demonstration of the technique, we apply the efficient testing methodology to a complex biological system consisting of population timeseries for planktonic organisms in a food web, and certain environmental drivers. A large number of frequency dependent phase relationships are found between these variables, and our algorithm efficiently determines the probability of each arising under the null hypothesis, given the length and properties of the data. Conclusion. Proper accounting of how bias and wavelet coherence values arise from cross spectral properties provides a better understanding of the expected results under the null hypothesis. Our new technique enables enormously faster significance testing of wavelet coherence

Climate-change related regime shifts have altered spatial synchrony of plankton dynamics in the North Sea

During the 1980s the North Sea plankton community underwent a well-documented ecosystem regime shift, including both spatial changes (northward species range shifts) and temporal changes (increases in the total abundances of warmer-water species). This regime shift has been attributed to climate change. Plankton provide a link between climate and higher-trophic-level organisms, which can forage on large spatial and temporal scales. It is therefore important to understand not only whether climate change affects purely spatial or temporal aspects of plankton dynamics, but also whether it affects spatio-temporal aspects such as metapopulation synchrony. If plankton synchrony is altered, higher-trophic-level feeding patterns may be modified. A second motivation for investigating changes in synchrony is that the possibility of such alterations has been examined for few organisms, in spite of the fact that synchrony is ubiquitous and of major importance in ecology. This study uses correlation coefficients and spectral analysis to investigate whether synchrony changed between the periods 1959-1980 and 1989-2010. Twenty-three plankton taxa, sea surface temperature (SST), and wind speed were examined. Results revealed that synchrony in SST and plankton was altered. Changes were idiosyncratic, and were not explained by changes in abundance. Changes in the synchrony of Calanus helgolandicus and Para-pseudocalanus spp appeared to be driven by changes in SST synchrony. This study is one of few to document alterations of synchrony and climate-change impacts on synchrony. We discuss why climate-change impacts on synchrony may well be more common and consequential than previously recognized

Mixture or mosaic? Genetic patterns in UK grey squirrels support a human-mediated ‘long-jump’ invasion mechanism

AIM: Clarifying whether multiple introductions of a species remain relatively isolated or merge and interbreed is essential for understanding the dynamics of invasion processes. Multiple introductions from different sources can result in a mixture of genetically distinct populations, increasing the total genetic diversity. This mixing can resolve the ‘genetic paradox’, whereby in spite of the relatively small numbers of introduced individuals, the augmented diversity due to this mixing increases adaptability and the ability of the species to spread in new environments. Here, we aim to assess whether the expansion of a successful invader, the Eastern grey squirrel, was partly driven by the merger of multiple introductions and the effects of such a merger on diversity. LOCATION: UK, Ireland. METHODS: We analysed the genetic variation at 12 microsatellite loci of 381 individuals sampled from one historical and 14 modern populations of grey squirrels. RESULTS: Our data revealed that current UK population structure resembles a mosaic, with minimal interpopulation mixing and each element reflecting the genetic make-up of historic introductions. The genetic diversity of each examined population was lower than a US population or a historical UK population. Numbers of releases in a county did not correlate with county-level genetic diversity. Inbreeding coefficients remain high, and effective population sizes remain small. MAIN CONCLUSIONS: Our results support the conclusion that rapid and large-scale expansion in this species in the UK was not driven by a genetic mixing of multiple introduced populations with a single expansion front, but was promoted by repeated translocations of small propagules. Our results have implications for the management of grey squirrels and other invasive species and also demonstrate how invaders can overcome the genetic paradox, if spread is facilitated by human-mediated dispersal

Synchrony affects Taylor’s law in theory and data

Two widely confirmed patterns in ecology are Taylor’s law (TL), which states that the variance of population density is approximately a power of mean population density, and population synchrony, the tendency of species’ population sizes in different areas to be correlated through time. TL has been applied in many areas, including fisheries management, conservation, agriculture, finance, physics, and meteorology. Synchrony of populations increases the likelihood of large-scale pest or disease outbreaks and shortages of resources. We show that changed synchrony modifies and can invalidate TL. Widespread recent changes in synchrony, possibly resulting from climate change, may broadly affect TL and its applications

Synchrony is more than its top-down and climatic parts: interacting Moran effects on phytoplankton in British seas

Large-scale spatial synchrony is ubiquitous in ecology. We examined 56 years of data representing chlorophyll density in 26 areas in British seas monitored by the Continuous Plankton Recorder survey. We used wavelet methods to disaggregate synchronous fluctuations by timescale and determine that drivers of synchrony include both biotic and abiotic variables. We tested these drivers for statistical significance by comparison with spatially synchronous surrogate data. We generated timescale-specific models, accounting for 61% of long-timescale (> 4yrs) synchrony in a chlorophyll density index, but only 3% of observed short-timescale (< 4yrs) synchrony. The dominant source of long-timescale chlorophyll synchrony was closely related to sea surface temperature, through a Moran effect, though likely via complex oceanographic mechanisms. The top-down action of Calanus finmarchicus predation enhances this environmental synchronising mechanism and interacts with it non-additively to produce more long-timescale synchrony than top-down and climatic drivers would produce independently. Thus we demonstrate interaction effects between Moran drivers of synchrony, a new mechanism for synchrony that may affect many ecosystems at large spatial scales

How environmental drivers of spatial synchrony interact

Spatial synchrony, the tendency for populations across space to show correlated fluctuations, is a fundamental feature of population dynamics, linked to central topics of ecology such as population cycling, extinction risk, and ecosystem stability. A common mechanism of spatial synchrony is the Moran effect, whereby spatially synchronized environmental signals drive population dynamics and hence induce population synchrony. After reviewing recent progress in understanding Moran effects, we here elaborate a general theory of how Moran effects of different environmental drivers acting on the same populations can interact, either synergistically or destructively, to produce either substantially more or markedly less population synchrony than would otherwise occur. We provide intuition for how this newly recognized mechanism works through theoretical case studies and application of our theory to California populations of giant kelp. We argue that Moran interactions should be common. Our theory and analysis explain an important new aspect of a fundamental feature of spatiotemporal population dynamics

Do founder size, genetic diversity and structure influence rates of expansion of North American grey squirrels in Europe?

Aim This study investigates how founder size may affect local genetic diversity and spatial genetic structure of the invasive American eastern grey squirrel (Sciurus carolinensis) in European areas. It also examines whether dispersal propensity and invasion rate may be related to founder size, genetic diversity and structure. Location Piedmont, Italy; Northern Ireland, Northumberland and East Anglia, UK. Methods Across the invaded range in Europe, 315 squirrels from 14 locations, grouped in four areas, were sampled and examined at 12 highly polymorphic microsatellite loci. We estimated both genetic variation and population structure using AMOVA, Mantel tests and Bayesian analysis. We also estimated migration rates and range expansion rates. Results Genetic diversity varied in accordance with numbers of founders across populations. For instance, the Italian population had the smallest founder size and lowest genetic variability, whereas Northumberland had high values for both. Significant levels of genetic differentiation were observed in all the examined regions. Gene flow, migration and population range expansion rate were also higher in England and Ireland than in Italy. Main conclusions Populations descending from human-mediated releases of few individuals were more genetically depauperate and more differentiated than populations established from a greater number of founders. Propagule pressure is therefore a significant factor in squirrel invasions. There is a trend whereby larger founder sizes were associated with greater genetic diversity, more dispersal, less local genetic differentiation and faster range expansion rate in squirrels. These findings have important management implications for controlling spread rate of squirrels and other invasive species: good practice should prioritize preventing further releases and the merging of genetically distinct populations as these events can augment genetic diversity

Tail dependent spatial synchrony arises from nonlinear driver response relationships

Spatial synchrony may be tail-dependent, that is, stronger when populations are abundant than scarce, or vice-versa. Here, ‘tail-dependent’ follows from distributions having a lower tail consisting of relatively low values and an upper tail of relatively high values. We present a general theory of how the distribution and correlation structure of an environmental driver translates into tail-dependent spatial synchrony through a non-linear response, and examine empirical evidence for theoretical predictions in giant kelp along the California coastline. In sheltered areas, kelp declines synchronously (lower-tail dependence) when waves are relatively intense, because waves below a certain height do little damage to kelp. Conversely, in exposed areas, kelp is synchronised primarily by periods of calmness that cause shared recovery (upper-tail dependence). We find evidence for geographies of tail dependence in synchrony, which helps structure regional population resilience: areas where population declines are asynchronous may be more resilient to disturbance because remnant populations facilitate reestablishment