The War on Illegal Drug Production and Trafficking: An Economic Evaluation of Plan Colombia.

This paper provides a thorough economic evaluation of the anti-drug policies implemented in Colombia between 2000 and 2006 under the so-called Plan Colombia. The paper develops a game theory model of the war against illegal drugs in producer countries. We explicitly model illegal drug markets, which allows us to account for the feedback effects between policies and market outcomes that are potentially important when evaluating large scale policy interventions such as Plan Colombia. We use available data for the war on cocaine production and trafficking as well as outcomes from the cocaine markets to calibrate the parameters of the model. Using the results from the calibration we estimate important measures of the costs, effectiveness, and efficiency of the war on drugs in Colombia. Finally we carry out simulations in order to assess the impact of increases in the U.S. budget allocated to Plan Colombia, and find that a three-fold increase in the U.S. budget allocated to the war on drugs in Colombia would decrease the amount of cocaine that succesfully reaches consumer countries by about 17%.Hard drugs, conflict, war on drugs, Plan Colombia

Crime and Conspicuous Consumption

This paper develops an incomplete information model wherein individuals face a trade-off between status and security when deciding the optimal amount of conspicuous consumption. On the one hand, we assume that individuals derive utility from status,which is obtained by signaling wealth through the consumption of an observable good. On the other hand, the increased consumption of observable goods also signals wealth to a criminal audience, thus increasing the chance of becoming target for criminal activities. The paper proposes an information channel through which crime distorts consumption decisions; this channel is different in nature from the channel whereby crime acts as a direct tax on observable and stealable consumption goods. More precisely, we argue that, in the presence of crime, individuals reduce their consumption ofobservable goods, not only because criminals may steal these goods, but also because it reveals information that could be used by criminals to target individuals´ wealth. We test our model´s predictions using U.S. data, and find that crime has a negativeand significant impact on conspicuous consumption; also that this effect cannot be explained by the fact that some of these goods tend to be stolen by criminals. Finally, we show that this result is robust to different specifications and alternative measuresof conspicuous consumption and crime.Crime, Conspicuous Consumption, Concerns for Status

Regulatory Protective Measures and Risky Behavior: Evidence from Ice Hockey

We provide evidence supporting the Peltzman effect, by which individuals required to wear protective gear end up taking additional risks that potentially offset the intended aim of the device. We take advantage of the fact that wearing a visor—a protective device in Ice Hockey—is mandatory in European, minor, and junior leagues but not in the NHL. This allows us to estimate the impact of wearing a visor by comparing the behavior in the NHL and other leagues of players who always wear a visor with that of players who wear one only when it is required. We find that when players are forced to wear a visor their behavior becomes more risky, earning an additional 0.19 penalty in minutes per game (compared to the average 1.14 penalty in minutes in our sample). We estimate an even larger effect of visors when we focus on players who were forced to use one during the 2004 season, when the NHL canceled its regular season and players had to move to European leagues temporarily. These estimates are not driven by players’ observable attributes, playing style, or other differences across leagues

The War on Illegal Drugs in Producer and Consumer Countries: A simple analytical framework

This paper develops a simple model of the war against illegal drugs in producer and consumer countries. Our analysis shows how the equilibrium quantity of illegal drugs, as well as their price, depends on key parameters of the model, among them the price elasticity of demand, and the effectiveness of the resources allocated to enforcement and prevention and treatment policies. Importantly, this paper studies the trade-off faced by drug consumer country`s government between prevention policies (aimed at reducing the demand for illegal drugs) and enforcement policies (aimed at reducing the production and trafficking of illegal drugs in producer countries). We use available data for the war against cocaine production and trafficking in Colombia, and that against consumption in the U.S. in order to calibrate the unobservable parameters of the model. Among these are the effectiveness of prevention and treatment policies in reducing the demand for cocaine; the relative effectiveness of interdiction efforts at reducing the amount of cocaine reaching consumer countries; and the cost of illegal drug production and trafficking activities in producer countries.war on drugs, conflict, enforcement, treatment and prevention policies, Plan Colombia.

Democracy, Redistribution and Inequality

In this paper we revisit the relationship between democracy, redistribution and inequality. We first explain the theoretical reasons why democracy is expected to increase redistribution and reduce inequality, and why this expectation may fail to be realized when democracy is captured by the richer segments of the population; when it caters to the preferences of the middle class; or when it opens up disequalizing opportunities to segments of the population previously excluded from such activities, thus exacerbating inequality among a large part of the population. We then survey the existing empirical literature, which is both voluminous and full of contradictory results. We provide new and systematic reduced-form evidence on the dynamic impact of democracy on various outcomes. Our findings indicate that there is a significant and robust effect of democracy on tax revenues as a fraction of GDP, but no robust impact on inequality. We also find that democracy is associated with an increase in secondary schooling and a more rapid structural transformation. Finally, we provide some evidence suggesting that inequality tends to increase after democratization when the economy has already undergone significant structural transformation, when land inequality is high, and when the gap between the middle class and the poor is small. All of these are broadly consistent with a view that is different from the traditional median voter model of democratic redistribution: democracy does not lead to a uniform decline in post-tax inequality, but can result in changes in fiscal redistribution and economic structure that have ambiguous effects on inequality.∗Prepared for the Handbook of Income Distribution edited by Anthony Atkinson and François Bourguignon. We are grateful to the editors for their detailed comments on an earlier draft and to participants in the Handbook conference in Paris, particularly to our discussant José-Víctor Ríos-Rull

Automated long-term EEG analysis to localize the epileptogenic zone

OBJECTIVE: We investigated the performance of automatic spike detection and subsequent electroencephalogram (EEG) source imaging to localize the epileptogenic zone (EZ) from long-term EEG recorded during video-EEG monitoring. METHODS: In 32 patients, spikes were automatically detected in the EEG and clustered according to their morphology. The two spike clusters with most single events in each patient were averaged and localized in the brain at the half-rising time and peak of the spike using EEG source imaging. On the basis of the distance from the sources to the resection and the known patient outcome after surgery, the performance of the automated EEG analysis to localize the EZ was quantified. RESULTS: In 28 out of the 32 patients, the automatically detected spike clusters corresponded with the reported interictal findings. The median distance to the resection in patients with Engel class I outcome was 6.5 and 15 mm for spike cluster 1 and 27 and 26 mm for cluster 2, at the peak and the half-rising time of the spike, respectively. Spike occurrence (cluster 1 vs. cluster 2) and spike timing (peak vs. half-rising) significantly influenced the distance to the resection (p < 0.05). For patients with Engel class II, III, and IV outcomes, the median distance increased to 36 and 36 mm for cluster 1. Localizing spike cluster 1 at the peak resulted in a sensitivity of 70% and specificity of 100%, positive prediction value (PPV) of 100%, and negative predictive value (NPV) of 53%. Including the results of spike cluster 2 led to an increased sensitivity of 79% NPV of 55% and diagnostic OR of 11.4, while the specificity dropped to 75% and the PPV to 90%. SIGNIFICANCE: We showed that automated analysis of long-term EEG recordings results in a high sensitivity and specificity to localize the epileptogenic focus

Analysis of the local authorities: National Health Survey 2007, Colombia 2011

ABSTRACT: This paper presents the results of the 2007 National Health Survey’s (ens) module I, which deals with territorial management of health regarding the capacity to manage health in the municipalities and to characterize their sanitary infrastructure and public health surveillance. Methodology: a descriptive retrospective study was conducted with a representative sample of 238 Colombian municipalities from all the categories, 223 of which answered the call. The source of information was the ens/2007, which was applied to the health secretaries of the sample’s municipalities. Results: more public and private health providers and health insurance companies are available in the municipalities belonging to the special category and to category 1. The sanitary infrastructure is insufficient but larger in the municipalities from the special category, particularly in the urban area. Public health surveillance for maternal and perinatal mortality, and for add and ari is higher in the municipalities from the special category and from category 1. Conclusions: in spite of the efforts of the municipalities to improve health, the results show important inequalities between the rural and urban areas, and between the municipalities from the special category and the municipalities from other categories. This situation calls for larger investments for the sanitary infrastructure, the public health surveillance systems, and the programs of the less developed municipalities in order to prevent inequalities from becoming progressive and to obtain better profits in terms of the people’s health.RESUMEN: En este artículo se presentan los resultados de la Encuesta Nacional de Salud de 2007 (ens), del módulo I sobre las administraciones territoriales de salud, en cuanto a la capacidad de gestionar la salud en los municipios y caracterizar la infraestructura sanitaria y la vigilancia en la salud pública. Metodología: se realizó un estudio descriptivo retrospectivo, en una muestra representativa de 238 municipios del país de todas las categorías, de los cuales respondieron 223. La fuente de información fue la ens/2007, aplicada a los secretarios de salud de los municipios de la muestra. Resultados: la oferta de instituciones públicas y privadas de salud y aseguradoras, tiene mayor presencia en los municipios de categoría 1 y especial. La infraestructura sanitaria es insuficiente pero es mayor en los municipios de categoría especial y principalmente en la zona urbana. La vigilancia en salud pública para la mortalidad materna, perinatal, Enfermedad Diarréica Aguda (eda) e Infección Respiratoria Aguda (ira) es mayor en los municipios de categorías 1 y especial. Conclusiones: a pesar de los esfuerzos realizados por los actores municipales para mejorar la salud, los resultados muestran desigualdades importantes entre la zona urbana y rural, así como entre los municipios de categorías 1 y especial, al igual que en las otras categorías, situación que demanda inversiones mayores en infraestructura sanitaria, en el sistema de vigilancia de la salud pública y en los programas de los municipios de menor desarrollo, para que las desigualdades no sean progresivas y se obtengan mejores beneficios en salud para la población

Evolution of the general system of occupational risks, Colombia 1994 – 2004

ABSTRACT: To analyze the regulation and ensuring the General System of Occupational Hazards in Colombia between 1994 and 2004. Methods: The evolution of regulation and its comparison with the principles of the Colombian social security was made by documentary analysis. A quantitative analysis determined the evolution of the insurance of companies and workers, by the legal nature of the Management Occupational Risks companies and social variables. Results: The structural and fundamental aspects are the most regulated. Some themes have great repetition. Promotion, prevention and decentralization are less visible. The efficiency and integrity principles are better developed. Solidarity, universality, unity and participation are under development. There is an increase of affiliated workers but a decrease of companies affiliated. The participation of the private companies increases and that of the public company decrease. The companies with more workers and more high quotes are affiliated to the assurances private companies. Discussion: The basic definitions are before the system. There are more regulations on the institutional arrangements and relationships between actors and less on conceptual and programmatic aspects in the promotion and prevention. Universality is threatened by economic and structural factors and by the same norms. The private participation is of great growth with a market approach toward the strongest sectors of the Colombian economy.RESUMEN: Analizar la reglamentación y el aseguramiento del Sistema General de Riesgos Profesionales, en Colombia 1994 - 2004. Metodología: Mediante revisión documental se analizó la evolución de la reglamentación y se comparó con los principios de la seguridad social colombiana. Un análisis cuantitativo determinó la evolución del aseguramiento de empresas y trabajadores. Resultados: En la reglamentación sobresalen aspectos estructurales y fundamentales con repetición en algunos temas. La promoción, prevención y descentralización tienen menos visibilidad. Eficiencia e integralidad son principios mejor desarrollados. Solidaridad, universalidad, unidad y participación los menos. El aseguramiento muestra aumento de trabajadores afiliados y disminución de empresas con ascenso de las aseguradoras privadas y decaimiento de la pública. Las privadas concentran empresas con más trabajadores y más altas cotizaciones. Discusión: Sus definiciones básicas son anteriores al Sistema mismo. Se reglamenta preferencialmente la organización institucional y las relaciones entre los actores con ausencia de aspectos conceptuales y programáticos en promoción y prevención. La universalidad es amenazada por factores coyunturales, estructurales y la misma reglamentación. La participación privada tiene gran crecimiento y un enfoque de mercado hacia los sectores más fuertes de la economía colombiana

Metabolic Signatures Associated with Severity in Hospitalized COVID-19 Patients

The clinical evolution of COVID-19 pneumonia is poorly understood. Identifying the metabolic pathways that are altered early with viral infection and their association with disease severity is crucial to understand COVID-19 pathophysiology, and guide clinical decisions. This study aimed at assessing the critical metabolic pathways altered with disease severity in hospitalized COVID-19 patients. Forty-nine hospitalized patients with COVID-19 pneumonia were enrolled in a prospective, observational, single-center study in Barcelona, Spain. Demographic, clinical, and analytical data at admission were registered. Plasma samples were collected within the first 48 h following hospitalization. Patients were stratified based on the severity of their evolution as moderate (N = 13), severe (N = 10), or critical (N = 26). A panel of 221 biomarkers was measured by targeted metabolomics in order to evaluate metabolic changes associated with subsequent disease severity. Our results show that obesity, respiratory rate, blood pressure, and oxygen saturation, as well as some analytical parameters and radiological findings, were all associated with disease severity. Additionally, ceramide metabolism, tryptophan degradation, and reductions in several metabolic reactions involving nicotinamide adenine nucleotide (NAD) at inclusion were significantly associated with respiratory severity and correlated with inflammation. In summary, assessment of the metabolomic profile of COVID-19 patients could assist in disease severity stratification and even in guiding clinical decisions