Causal Discovery with Missing Data in a Multicentric Clinical Study

Causal inference for testing clinical hypotheses from observational data presents many difficulties because the underlying data-generating model and the associated causal graph are not usually available. Furthermore, observational data may contain missing values, which impact the recovery of the causal graph by causal discovery algorithms: a crucial issue often ignored in clinical studies. In this work, we use data from a multi-centric study on endometrial cancer to analyze the impact of different missingness mechanisms on the recovered causal graph. This is achieved by extending state-of-the-art causal discovery algorithms to exploit expert knowledge without sacrificing theoretical soundness. We validate the recovered graph with expert physicians, showing that our approach finds clinically-relevant solutions. Finally, we discuss the goodness of fit of our graph and its consistency from a clinical decision-making perspective using graphical separation to validate causal pathways

The amount of preoperative endometrial tissue surface in relation to final endometrial cancer classification

Objective: To evaluate whether the amount of preoperative endometrial tissue surface is related to the degree of concordance with final low- and high-grade endometrial cancer (EC). In addition, to determine whether discordance is influenced by sampling method and impacts outcome. Methods: A retrospective cohort study within the European Network for Individualized Treatment of Endometrial Cancer (ENITEC). Surface of preoperative endometrial tissue samples was digitally calculated using ImageJ. Tumor samples were classified into low-grade (grade 1-2 endometrioid EC (EEC)) and high-grade (grade 3 EEC + non-endometroid EC). Results: The study cohort included 573 tumor samples. Overall concordance between pre- and postoperative diagnosis was 60.0%, and 88.8% when classified into low- and high-grade EC. Upgrading (preoperative low-grade, postoperative high-grade EC) was found in 7.8% and downgrading (preoperative high-grade, postoperative low-grade EC) in 26.7%. The median endometrial tissue surface was significantly lower in concordant diagnoses when compared to discordant diagnoses, respectively 18.7 mm2 and 23.5 mm2 (P = 0.022). Sampling method did not influence the concordance in tumor classification. Patients with preoperative high-grade and postoperative low-grade showed significant lower DSS compared to patients with concordant low-grade EC (P = 0.039). Conclusion: The amount of preoperative endometrial tissue surface was inversely related to the degree of concordance with final tumor low- and high-grade. Obtaining higher amount of preoperative endometrial tissue surface does not increase the concordance between pre- and postoperative low- and high-grade diagnosis in EC. Awareness of clinically relevant down- and upgrading is crucial to reduce subsequent over- or undertreatment with impact on outcome

Poor outcome in hypoxic endometrial carcinoma is related to vascular density

Background Identification of endometrial carcinoma (EC) patients at high risk of recurrence is lacking. In this study, the prognostic role of hypoxia and angiogenesis was investigated in EC patients. Methods Tumour slides from EC patients were stained by immunofluorescence for carbonic anhydrase IX (CAIX) as hypoxic marker and CD34 for assessment of microvessel density (MVD). CAIX expression was determined in epithelial tumour cells, with a cut-off of 1%. MVD was assessed according to the Weidner method. Correlations with disease-specific survival (DSS), disease-free survival (DFS) and distant disease-free survival (DDFS) were calculated using Kaplan–Meier curves and Cox regression analysis. Results Sixty-three (16.4%) of 385 ECs showed positive CAIX expression with high vascular density. These ECs had a reduced DSS compared to tumours with either hypoxia or high vascular density (log-rank p = 0.002). Multivariable analysis showed that hypoxic tumours with high vascular density had a reduced DSS (hazard ratio [HR] 3.71, p = 0.002), DDFS (HR 2.68, p = 0.009) and a trend for reduced DFS (HR 1.87, p = 0.054). Conclusions This study has shown that adverse outcome in hypoxic ECs is seen in the presence of high vascular density, suggesting an important role of angiogenesis in the metastatic process of hypoxic EC. Differential adjuvant treatment might be indicated for these patients.publishedVersio

Preoperative risk stratification in endometrial cancer (ENDORISK) by a Bayesian network model: A development and validation study

Background: Bayesian networks (BNs) are machine-learning-based computational models that visualize causal relationships and provide insight into the processes underlying disease progression, closely resembling clinical decision-making. Preoperative identification of patients at risk for lymph node metastasis (LNM) is challenging in endometrial cancer, and although several biomarkers are related to LNM, none of them are incorporated in clinical practice. The aim of this study was to develop and externally validate a preoperative BN to predict LNM and outcome in endometrial cancer patients.Methods and findings: Within the European Network for Individualized Treatment of Endometrial Cancer (ENI-TEC), we performed a retrospective multicenter cohort study including 763 patients, median age 65 years (interquartile range [IQR] 58-71), surgically treated for endometrial cancer between February 1995 and August 2013 at one of the 10 participating European hospitals. A BN was developed using score-based machine learning in addition to expert knowledge. Our main outcome measures were LNM and 5-year disease-specific survival (DSS). Preoperative clinical, histopathological, and molecular biomarkers were included in the network. External validation was performed using 2 prospective study cohorts: the Molecular Markers in Treatment in Endometrial Cancer (MoMaTEC) study cohort, including 446 Norwegian patients, median age 64 years (IQR 59-74), treated between May 2001 and 2010; and the PIpelle Prospective ENDOmetrial carcinoma (PIPENDO) study cohort, including 384 Dutch patients, median age 66 years (IQR 60-73), treated between September 2011 and December 2013. A BN called ENDORISK (preoperative risk stratification in endometrial cancer) was developed including the following predictors: preoperative tumor grade; immunohistochemical expression of estrogen receptor (ER), progesterone receptor (PR), p53, and L1 cell adhesion molecule (L1CAM); cancer antigen 125 serum level; thrombocyte count; imaging results on lymphadenopathy; and cervical cytology. In the MoMaTEC cohort, the area under the curve (AUC) was 0.82 (95% confidence interval [CI] 0.76-0.88) for LNM and 0.82 (95% CI 0.77-0.87) for 5-year DSS. In the PIPENDO cohort, the AUC for 5-year DSS was 0.84 (95% CI 0.78-0.90). The network was well-calibrated. In the MoMaTEC cohort, 249 patients (55.8%) were classified with Conclusions: In this study, we illustrated how BNs can be used for individualizing clinical decision-making in oncology by incorporating easily accessible and multimodal biomarkers. The network shows the complex interactions underlying the carcinogenetic process of endometrial cancer by its graphical representation. A prospective feasibility study will be needed prior to implementation in the clinic.</div

Improved preoperative risk stratification with CA-125 in low-grade endometrial cancer: A multicenter prospective cohort study

Objectives: The global obesity epidemic has great impact on the prevalence of low-grade endometrial carcinoma. The preoperative tumor serum marker cancer antigen 125 (CA-125) might contribute to improved identification of high-risk patients within this group. The study aimed to investigate the prognostic value of CA-125 in relation to established preoperative prognosticators, with a focus on identifying patients with poor outcome in low-grade endometrial carcinoma (EC) patients. Methods: Prospective multicenter cohort study including all consecutive patients surgically treated for endometrial carcinoma in nine collaborating hospitals from September 2011 until December 2013. All preoperative histopathological diagnoses were reviewed in a blinded manner. Associations between CA-125 and clinicopathological features were determined. Univariable and multivariable analysis by Cox regression were used. Separate analyses were performed for preoperatively designated low-grade and high-grade endometrial carcinoma patients. Results: A total of 333 patients were analyzed. CA-125 was associated with poor prognostic features including advanced International Federation of Gynecology and Obstetrics (FIGO) stage. In multivariable analysis, age, preoperative tumor and CA-125 were significantly associated with disease-free survival (DFS); preoperative grade, tumor type, FIGO and CA-125 were significantly associated with disease-specific survival (DSS). Low-grade EC patients with elevated CA-125 revealed a DFS of 80.6% and DSS of 87.1%, compared to 92.1% and 97.2% in low-grade EC patients with normal CA-125. Conclusion: Preoperative elevated CA-125 was associated with poor prognostic features and independently associated with DFS and DSS. Particularly patients with low-grade EC and elevated CA-125 represent a group with poor outcome and should be considered as high-risk endometrial carcinoma

Abnormal preoperative haematological parameters in Endometrial cancer; reflecting tumour aggressiveness or reduced response to radiotherapy?

In endometrial cancer (EC), preoperative anaemia, thrombocytosis and leucocytosis appear to be associated with worse prognosis. It remains unclear whether these parameters solely reflect tumour aggressiveness, or also impact response to adjuvant treatment. Therefore, our primary aim is to evaluate the prognostic relevance of anaemia, thrombocytosis and leucocytosis on survival in EC. Secondary, to explore their predictive relevance in response to radiotherapy in EC. A retrospective multicentre cohort study was performed within 10 hospitals. Preoperative haematological parameters were defined as: Anaemia – haemoglobin 400 × 109 platelets/L, leucocytosis – leukocytes >10 × 109/L. The relationship of haematological parameters with clinicopathological characteristics, ESGO/ESTRO/ESP risk groups and survival were evaluated. Furthermore, the predictive value of haematological parameters was determined on the overall response to adjuvant radiotherapy and for the ESGO/ESTRO/ESP intermediate-risk group solely receiving radiotherapy. A total of 894 patients were included with a median follow-up of 4.5 years. Anaemia was present in 103 (11.5%), thrombocytosis in 79 (8.8%) and leucocytosis in 114 (12.7%) patients. The presence of anaemia or thrombocytosis was significantly associated with ESGO/ESTRO/ESP high-risk (respectively, P = 0.002 and P = 0.041). In the entire cohort, anaemia remained independently associated with decreased disease-specific survival (HR 2.31, 95% CI (1.19–4.50), P = 0.013) after adjusting for age, the abnormal haematological parameters and ESGO/ESTRO/ESP risk groups. In patients that were treated with adjuvant radiotherapy (n = 239), anaemia was associated with significant reduced 5-year disease-specific and recurrence-free survival (P = 0.005 and P = 0.025, respectively). In ESGO/ESTRO/ESP intermediate risk patients that received solely vaginal brachytherapy (n = 74), anaemia was associated with reduced disease-specific survival (P = 0.041). Current data demonstrate the importance of preoperative anaemia as independent prognostic factor in patients with EC. Moreover, anaemia seems to be associated with reduced response to radiotherapy. Prospective validation in a larger study cohort is needed to verify anaemia as predictive biomarker for radiotherapy.What is already known on this subject? In endometrial cancer, preoperative abnormal haematological parameters like, anaemia, thrombocytosis and leucocytosis appears to be associated with FIGO advanced-stage and unfavourable outcome.What do the results of this study add? It remains unclear whether anaemia, thrombocytosis or leucocytosis solely reflecting worse prognosis by advanced tumour stage, or also impact response to adjuvant treatment. Current data demonstrate that anaemia is independent associated with decreased disease-specific survival and anaemia seems related with reduced response to radiotherapy and in specific to vaginal brachytherapy in ESGO/ESTRO/ESP intermediate risk patients.What are the implications of these findings for clinical practice and/or further research? Specific applied adjuvant treatment is needed if patients with anaemia have a reduced response to radiotherapy in EC. Prospective validation in a larger study cohort is required to verify anaemia as predictive biomarker for radiotherapy and to further evaluate the prognostic/predictive impact of anaemia in addition to the molecular subgroups. What is already known on this subject? In endometrial cancer, preoperative abnormal haematological parameters like, anaemia, thrombocytosis and leucocytosis appears to be associated with FIGO advanced-stage and unfavourable outcome. What do the results of this study add? It remains unclear whether anaemia, thrombocytosis or leucocytosis solely reflecting worse prognosis by advanced tumour stage, or also impact response to adjuvant treatment. Current data demonstrate that anaemia is independent associated with decreased disease-specific survival and anaemia seems related with reduced response to radiotherapy and in specific to vaginal brachytherapy in ESGO/ESTRO/ESP intermediate risk patients. What are the implications of these findings for clinical practice and/or further research? Specific applied adjuvant treatment is needed if patients with anaemia have a reduced response to radiotherapy in EC. Prospective validation in a larger study cohort is required to verify anaemia as predictive biomarker for radiotherapy and to further evaluate the prognostic/predictive impact of anaemia in addition to the molecular subgroups. In this study we focused on three specific blood values before surgery to predict survival outcomes in endometrial cancer patients: low haemoglobin (anaemia), high platelet count (thrombocytosis) and high white blood cell count (leucocytosis). We studied 894 patients with endometrial cancer over about 4.5 years, in which 11.5% had anaemia, 8.8% thrombocytosis and 12.7% leucocytosis. Anaemia was linked to a lower chance of surviving endometrial cancer, even after we considering patients' age, thrombocytosis, leucocytosis and the endometrial cancer risk classification groups. In patients who received radiotherapy after surgery (293 patients), anaemia was linked to a lower change of surviving and cancer coming back within 5 years. In patients within the intermediate endometrial cancer risk classification group who only received specific radiotherapy (74 patients), anaemia was even linked with lower chance of survival. In conclusion, anaemia is an important factor in predicting endometrial cancer outcomes, and it might also make radiotherapy less effective for some patients.</p