A multi-disciplinary approach to assess the impact of global climate change on infrastructure in cold regions

Imperial College London is researching with BP some potential impacts of future climate change. BP has a significant number of facilities in cold high-latitude regions, where global climate models predict significant rises in air and ground surface temperature. This could impact on the state and extent of permafrost, potentially posing risks to facilities, infrastructure, and operations (ACIA 2005). The paper reviews the research, focusing on an exemplar study region in eastern Siberia. The key elements included: (1) Developing an approach to provide a best estimate of future climate change. (2) An engineering geological appraisal of the ground conditions in the study region. (3) Performing a parametric study of geothermal conditions in the study region using finite element thermal analyses. (4) Developing a Thermal-Hydraulic-Mechanical modeling approach for assessment of climate change impact on specific engineering facilities. (5) Developing a methodology for incorporating potential climate change considerations into engineering decision-making and design.Postprint (published version

Molecular Mechanisms of Retinoid Receptors in Diabetes-Induced Cardiac Remodeling

Diabetic cardiomyopathy (DCM), a significant contributor to morbidity and mortality in diabetic patients, is characterized by ventricular dysfunction, in the absence of coronary atherosclerosis and hypertension. There is no specific therapeutic strategy to effectively treat patients with DCM, due to a lack of a mechanistic understanding of the disease process. Retinoic acid, the active metabolite of vitamin A, is involved in a wide range of biological processes, through binding and activation of nuclear receptors: retinoic acid receptors (RAR) and retinoid X receptors (RXR). RAR/RXR-mediated signaling has been implicated in the regulation of glucose and lipid metabolism. Recently, it has been reported that activation of RAR/RXR has an important role in preventing the development of diabetic cardiomyopathy, through improving cardiac insulin resistance, inhibition of intracellular oxidative stress, NF-κB-mediated inflammatory responses and the renin-angiotensin system. Moreover, downregulated RAR/RXR signaling has been demonstrated in diabetic myocardium, suggesting that impaired RAR/RXR signaling may be a trigger to accelerate diabetes-induced development of DCM. Understanding the molecular mechanisms of retinoid receptors in the regulation of cardiac metabolism and remodeling under diabetic conditions is important in providing the impetus for generating novel therapeutic approaches for the prevention and treatment of diabetes-induced cardiac complications and heart failure

Calibrating Climate Model Ensembles for Assessing Extremes in a Changing Climate

Climate models serve as indispensable tools to investigate the effect of anthropogenic emissions on current and future climate, including extremes. However, as low-dimensional approximations of the climate system, they will always exhibit biases. Several attempts have been made to correct for biases as they affect extremes prediction, predominantly focused on correcting model-simulated distribution shapes. In this study, the effectiveness of a recently published quantile-based bias correction scheme, as well as a new subset selection method introduced here, are tested out-of-sample using model-as-truth experiments. Results show that biases in the shape of distributions tend to persist through time, and therefore, correcting for shape bias is useful for past and future statements characterizing the probability of extremes. However, for statements characterized by a ratio of the probabilities of extremes between two periods, we find that correcting for shape bias often provides no skill improvement due to the dominating effect of bias in the long-term trend. Using a toy model experiment, we examine the relative importance of the shape of the distribution versus its position in response to long-term changes in radiative forcing. It confirms that the relative position of the two distributions, based on the trend, is at least as important as the shape. We encourage the community to consider all model biases relevant to their metric of interest when using a bias correction procedure and to construct out-of-sample tests that mirror the intended application