Estimating moose population parameters from aerial surveys

Successful moose management depends on knowledge of population dynamics. The principal parameters required are size, rate of change, recruitment, sex composition, and mortality. Moose management in Alaska has been severely hampered by the lack of good estimates of these parameters, and unfortunately, this lack contributed to the decline of many Alaskan moose populations during the 1970s (e.g., Gasaway et al. 1983). The problems were: (1) population size not adequately estimated, (2) rapid rates of decline not acknowledged until populations were low, (3) meaningful recruitment rates were not available in the absence of good population estimates, and (4) calf and adult mortality rates were grossly underestimated. Frustration of moose managers working with inadequate data led to development of aerial survey procedures that yield minimally biased, sufficiently precise estimates of population parameters for most Alaskan moose management and research. This manual describes these procedures. Development of these procedures would have been impossible without the inspiration, support, advice, and criticism of many colleagues. We thank these colleagues for their contributions. Dale Haggstrom and Dave Kelleyhouse helped develop flight patterns, tested and improved early sampling designs, and as moose managers, put these procedures into routine use. Pilots Bill Lentsch and Pete Haggland were instrumental in developing and testing aerial surveying techniques. Their interest and dedication to improving moose management made them valuable allies. Statisticians Dana Thomas of the University of Alaska and W. Scott Overton of Oregon State University provided advice on variance approximations for the population estimator. Warren Ballard, Sterling Miller, SuzAnne Miller, Doug Larsen, and Wayne Kale tested procedures and provided valuable criticisms and suggestions. Jim Raymond initially programmed a portable calculator to make lengthy calculation simple, fast, and error-free. Angie Babcock, Lisa Ingalls, Vicky Leffingwell, and Laura McManus patiently typed several versions of this manual. John Coady and Oliver Burris provided continuous moral and financial support for a 3-year project that lasted 6 years. Joan Barnett, Rodney Boetje, Steven Peterson, and Wayne Regelin of the Alaska Department of Fish and Game provided helpful editorial suggestions in previous drafts. Finally, we thank referees David Anderson of the Utah Cooperative Wildlife Research Unit, Vincent Schultz of Washington State University, and James Peek, E. "Oz" Garton, and Mike Samuel of the University of Idaho whose comments and suggestions improved this manual. This project was funded by the Alaska Department of Fish and Game through Federal Aid in Wildlife Restoration Projects W-17-9 through W-22-1

Let’s Play! Gamifying Engineering Ethics Education Through the Development of Competitive and Collaborative Activities

Engineering ethics is an extremely important topic that needs to be focused on more in engineering curricula, as many of the projects that engineers work on have a profound impact on society. There are many pitfalls with the traditional ways in which ethics is taught to engineering students as an abstract philosophical topic, rather than personal decision making situated in complex real contexts. The three main approaches that are used for engineering ethics include being taught by a professor outside of the engineering space, being taught late in their curriculum such as during a senior capstone project, and being taught in a short period of time as a module of another class. The downsides to these approaches are that students do not see ethics as equally important as some other topics, they do not see it consistently integrated throughout the curriculum, nor do they see ethical decisions as complex nuanced, and situated in context,. Game-based learning is a means to actively engage students in interrogating the complexities of ethical decision making. Game play can align with student learning objectives as well as improve student knowledge, behaviors, and dispositions. Our paper introduces three games that are designed to assist in the development of students’ ethical awareness and reasoning. Three engineering ethics games have been developed as the foundation for an NSF-funded project that investigates the empirical impacts of game play on ethical reasoning and decision making. Cards Against Engineering Ethics, Toxic Workplaces, and Mars: An Ethical Expedition have all been in development for the last few years. Each game targets specific ethics learning outcomes as well as different play mechanics. These outcomes include identifying the complexities of ethical dilemmas, evaluating responses to ethical situations in context, and promoting ethical discussions among peers. The time required to play each game varies, ranging from 20 minutes, to 75 minutes, to 5 minutes once a week for 15 weeks. The benefits that these games include an enriched learning experience, student engagement, and a greater connection between ethics and real life

About Starobinsky inflation

It is believed that soon after the Planck era, space time should have a semi-classical nature. According to this, the escape from General Relativity theory is unavoidable. Two geometric counter-terms are needed to regularize the divergences which come from the expected value. These counter-terms are responsible for a higher derivative metric gravitation. Starobinsky idea was that these higher derivatives could mimic a cosmological constant. In this work it is considered numerical solutions for general Bianchi I anisotropic space-times in this higher derivative theory. The approach is ``experimental'' in the sense that there is no attempt to an analytical investigation of the results. It is shown that for zero cosmological constant $\Lambda=0$, there are sets of initial conditions which form basins of attraction that asymptote Minkowski space. The complement of this set of initial conditions form basins which are attracted to some singular solutions. It is also shown, for a cosmological constant $\Lambda> 0$ that there are basins of attraction to a specific de Sitter solution. This result is consistent with Starobinsky's initial idea. The complement of this set also forms basins that are attracted to some type of singular solution. Because the singularity is characterized by curvature scalars, it must be stressed that the basin structure obtained is a topological invariant, i.e., coordinate independent.Comment: Version accepted for publication in PRD. More references added, a few modifications and minor correction

Pain Coping Skills Training for Patients Who Catastrophize About Pain Prior to Knee Arthroplasty: A Multisite Randomized Clinical Trial

BACKGROUND: Pain catastrophizing has been identified as a prognostic indicator of poor outcome following knee arthroplasty. Interventions to address pain catastrophizing, to our knowledge, have not been tested in patients undergoing knee arthroplasty. The purpose of this study was to determine whether pain coping skills training in persons with moderate to high pain catastrophizing undergoing knee arthroplasty improves outcomes 12 months postoperatively compared with usual care or arthritis education. METHODS: A multicenter, 3-arm, single-blinded, randomized comparative effectiveness trial was performed involving 5 university-based medical centers in the United States. There were 402 randomized participants. The primary outcome was the Western Ontario and McMaster Universities Osteoarthritis Index (WOMAC) Pain Scale, measured at baseline, 2 months, 6 months, and 12 months following the surgical procedure. RESULTS: Participants were recruited from January 2013 to June 2016. In 402 participants, 66% were women and the mean age of the participants (and standard deviation) was 63.2 ± 8.0 years. Three hundred and forty-six participants (90% of those who underwent a surgical procedure) completed a 12-month follow-up. All 3 treatment groups had large improvements in 12-month WOMAC pain scores with no significant differences (p > 0.05) among the 3 treatment arms. No differences were found between WOMAC pain scores at 12 months for the pain coping skills and arthritis education groups (adjusted mean difference, 0.3 [95% confidence interval (CI), -0.9 to 1.5]) or between the pain coping and usual-care groups (adjusted mean difference, 0.4 [95% CI, -0.7 to 1.5]). Secondary outcomes also showed no significant differences (p > 0.05) among the 3 groups. CONCLUSIONS: Among adults with pain catastrophizing undergoing knee arthroplasty, cognitive behaviorally based pain coping skills training did not confer pain or functional benefit beyond the large improvements achieved with usual surgical and postoperative care. Future research should develop interventions for the approximately 20% of patients undergoing knee arthroplasty who experience persistent function-limiting pain. LEVEL OF EVIDENCE: Therapeutic Level I. See Instructions for Authors for a complete description of levels of evidence

shapecoder: a new method for visual quantification of body mass index in young children

Peer Reviewedhttps://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/141494/1/ijpo12202_am.pdfhttps://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/141494/2/ijpo12202.pd

The comparative effectiveness of abatacept versus anti-tumour necrosis factor switching for rheumatoid arthritis patients previously treated with an anti-tumour necrosis factor

OBJECTIVE: We compared the effectiveness of abatacept (ABA) versus a subsequent anti-tumour necrosis factor inhibitor (anti-TNF) in rheumatoid arthritis (RA) patients with prior anti-TNF use. METHODS: We identified RA patients from a large observational US cohort (2/1/2000-8/7/2011) who had discontinued at least one anti-TNF and initiated either ABA or a subsequent anti-TNF. Using propensity score (PS) matching (n:1 match), effectiveness was measured at 6 and 12 months after initiation based on mean change in Clinical Disease Activity Index (CDAI), modified American College of Rheumatology (mACR) 20, 50 and 70 responses, modified Health Assessment Questionnaire (mHAQ) and CDAI remission in adjusted regression models. RESULTS: The PS-matched groups included 431 ABA and 746 anti-TNF users at 6 months and 311 ABA and 493 anti-TNF users at 12 months. In adjusted analyses comparing response following treatment with ABA and anti-TNF, the difference in weighted mean change in CDAI (range 6-8) at 6 months (0.46, 95% CI -0.82 to 1.73) and 12 months was similar (-1.64, 95% CI -3.47 to 0.19). The mACR20 responses were similar at 6 (28-32%, p=0.73) and 12 months (35-37%, p=0.48) as were the mACR50 and mACR70 (12 months: 20-22%, p=0.25 and 10-12%, p=0.49, respectively). Meaningful change in mHAQ was similar at 6 and 12 months (30-33%, p=0.41 and 29-30%, p=0.39, respectively) as was CDAI remission rates (9-10%, p=0.42 and 12-13%, p=0.91, respectively). CONCLUSIONS: RA patients with prior anti-TNF exposures had similar outcomes if they switched to a new anti-TNF as compared with initiation of ABA

Executive Summary of Propulsion on the Orion Abort Flight-Test Vehicles

The National Aeronautics and Space Administration Orion Flight Test Office was tasked with conducting a series of flight tests in several launch abort scenarios to certify that the Orion Launch Abort System is capable of delivering astronauts aboard the Orion Crew Module to a safe environment, away from a failed booster. The first of this series was the Orion Pad Abort 1 Flight-Test Vehicle, which was successfully flown on May 6, 2010 at the White Sands Missile Range in New Mexico. This report provides a brief overview of the three propulsive subsystems used on the Pad Abort 1 Flight-Test Vehicle. An overview of the propulsive systems originally planned for future flight-test vehicles is also provided, which also includes the cold gas Reaction Control System within the Crew Module, and the Peacekeeper first stage rocket motor encased within the Abort Test Booster aeroshell. Although the Constellation program has been cancelled and the operational role of the Orion spacecraft has significantly evolved, lessons learned from Pad Abort 1 and the other flight-test vehicles could certainly contribute to the vehicle architecture of many future human-rated space launch vehicle

Laboratory Measurements of Fe XXIV Line Emission: 3→2 Transitions Near Excitation Threshold

Using the Electron Beam Ion Trap facility at Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, we have measured relative cross sections for Fe XXIV line emission at electron energies between 0.7 and 3.0 keV. The measurements include line formation by direct electron impact excitation (DE), radiative cascades, resonant excitation (RE), and dielectronic recombination (DR) satellites with captured electrons in n≥5 levels. Good agreement with R-matrix and distorted wave calculations is found. In collisionally ionized plasmas, at temperatures near where the ion abundance peaks (kTe~1.7 keV), the RE contributions are found to be ≲5% of the line emission, while the DR satellites contribute ≲10%. While good agreement with state-of-the-art atomic physics calculations is found, there is less good agreement with existing spectral synthesis codes in common astrophysical use. For the Fe XXIV 3p3/2 → 2s1/2, 3p1/2 → 2s1/2, and 3d5/2 → 2p3/2 transitions, the synthesis code MEKAL underestimates the emissivity in coronal equilibrium by ~20% at temperatures near where the ion abundance peaks. In situations where the ionization balance is not solely determined by the electron temperature, RE and DR satellites may contribute a considerable fraction of the line emission

Dynamical decoupling of unbounded Hamiltonians

We investigate the possibility to suppress interactions between a finite dimensional system and an infinite dimensional environment through a fast sequence of unitary kicks on the finite dimensional system. This method, called dynamical decoupling, is known to work for bounded interactions, but physical environments such as bosonic heat baths are usually modelled with unbounded interactions, whence here we initiate a systematic study of dynamical decoupling for unbounded operators. We develop a sufficient decoupling criterion for arbitrary Hamiltonians and a necessary decoupling criterion for semibounded Hamiltonians. We give examples for unbounded Hamiltonians where decoupling works and the limiting evolution as well as the convergence speed can be explicitly computed. We show that decoupling does not always work for unbounded interactions and provide both physically and mathematically motivated examples.Comment: 18 pages, 3 figure