A review of techniques for spatial modeling in geographical, conservation and landscape genetics

Most evolutionary processes occur in a spatial context and several spatial analysis techniques have been employed in an exploratory context. However, the existence of autocorrelation can also perturb significance tests when data is analyzed using standard correlation and regression techniques on modeling genetic data as a function of explanatory variables. In this case, more complex models incorporating the effects of autocorrelation must be used. Here we review those models and compared their relative performances in a simple simulation, in which spatial patterns in allele frequencies were generated by a balance between random variation within populations and spatially-structured gene flow. Notwithstanding the somewhat idiosyncratic behavior of the techniques evaluated, it is clear that spatial autocorrelation affects Type I errors and that standard linear regression does not provide minimum variance estimators. Due to its flexibility, we stress that principal coordinate of neighbor matrices (PCNM) and related eigenvector mapping techniques seem to be the best approaches to spatial regression. In general, we hope that our review of commonly used spatial regression techniques in biology and ecology may aid population geneticists towards providing better explanations for population structures dealing with more complex regression problems throughout geographic space

Equilibrium of Global Amphibian Species Distributions with Climate

A common assumption in bioclimatic envelope modeling is that species distributions are in equilibrium with contemporary climate. A number of studies have measured departures from equilibrium in species distributions in particular regions, but such investigations were never carried out for a complete lineage across its entire distribution. We measure departures of equilibrium with contemporary climate for the distributions of the world amphibian species. Specifically, we fitted bioclimatic envelopes for 5544 species using three presence-only models. We then measured the proportion of the modeled envelope that is currently occupied by the species, as a metric of equilibrium of species distributions with climate. The assumption was that the greater the difference between modeled bioclimatic envelope and the occupied distribution, the greater the likelihood that species distribution would not be at equilibrium with contemporary climate. On average, amphibians occupied 30% to 57% of their potential distributions. Although patterns differed across regions, there were no significant differences among lineages. Species in the Neotropic, Afrotropics, Indo-Malay, and Palaearctic occupied a smaller proportion of their potential distributions than species in the Nearctic, Madagascar, and Australasia. We acknowledge that our models underestimate non equilibrium, and discuss potential reasons for the observed patterns. From a modeling perspective our results support the view that at global scale bioclimatic envelope models might perform similarly across lineages but differently across regions

The Functional Consequences of Mutualistic Network Architecture

The architecture and properties of many complex networks play a significant role in the functioning of the systems they describe. Recently, complex network theory has been applied to ecological entities, like food webs or mutualistic plant-animal interactions. Unfortunately, we still lack an accurate view of the relationship between the architecture and functioning of ecological networks. In this study we explore this link by building individual-based pollination networks from eight Erysimum mediohispanicum (Brassicaceae) populations. In these individual-based networks, each individual plant in a population was considered a node, and was connected by means of undirected links to conspecifics sharing pollinators. The architecture of these unipartite networks was described by means of nestedness, connectivity and transitivity. Network functioning was estimated by quantifying the performance of the population described by each network as the number of per-capita juvenile plants produced per population. We found a consistent relationship between the topology of the networks and their functioning, since variation across populations in the average per-capita production of juvenile plants was positively and significantly related with network nestedness, connectivity and clustering. Subtle changes in the composition of diverse pollinator assemblages can drive major consequences for plant population performance and local persistence through modifications in the structure of the inter-plant pollination networks

Use of Cross-Taxon Congruence for Hotspot Identification at a Regional Scale

One of the most debated problems in conservation biology is the use of indicator (surrogate) taxa to predict spatial patterns in other taxa. Cross-taxon congruence in species richness patterns is of paramount importance at regional scales to disclose areas of high conservation value that are significant in a broader biogeographical context but yet placed in the finer, more practical, political context of decision making. We analysed spatial patterns of diversity in six arthropod taxa from the Turkish fauna as a regional case study relevant to global conservation of the Mediterranean basin. Although we found high congruence in cross-taxon comparisons of species richness (0.241<r<0.645), hotspots of different groups show limited overlap, generally less than 50 per cent. The ability of a given taxon to capture diversity of other taxa was usually modest (on average, 50 percent of diversity of non-target taxa), limiting the use of hotspots for effective conservation of non-target groups. Nevertheless, our study demonstrates that a given group may partially stand in for another with similar ecological needs and biogeographical histories. We therefore advocate the use of multiple sets of taxa, chosen so as to be representative of animals with different ecological needs and biogeographical histories

Inferring Ecological Processes from Taxonomic, Phylogenetic and Functional Trait β-Diversity

Understanding the influences of dispersal limitation and environmental filtering on the structure of ecological communities is a major challenge in ecology. Insight may be gained by combining phylogenetic, functional and taxonomic data to characterize spatial turnover in community structure (β-diversity). We develop a framework that allows rigorous inference of the strengths of dispersal limitation and environmental filtering by combining these three types of β-diversity. Our framework provides model-generated expectations for patterns of taxonomic, phylogenetic and functional β-diversity across biologically relevant combinations of dispersal limitation and environmental filtering. After developing the framework we compared the model-generated expectations to the commonly used “intuitive” expectation that the variance explained by the environment or by space will, respectively, increase monotonically with the strength of environmental filtering or dispersal limitation. The model-generated expectations strongly departed from these intuitive expectations: the variance explained by the environment or by space was often a unimodal function of the strength of environmental filtering or dispersal limitation, respectively. Therefore, although it is commonly done in the literature, one cannot assume that the strength of an underlying process is a monotonic function of explained variance. To infer the strength of underlying processes, one must instead compare explained variances to model-generated expectations. Our framework provides these expectations. We show that by combining the three types of β-diversity with model-generated expectations our framework is able to provide rigorous inferences of the relative and absolute strengths of dispersal limitation and environmental filtering. Phylogenetic, functional and taxonomic β-diversity can therefore be used simultaneously to infer processes by comparing their empirical patterns to the expectations generated by frameworks similar to the one developed here

Locating Pleistocene Refugia: Comparing Phylogeographic and Ecological Niche Model Predictions

Ecological niche models (ENMs) provide a means of characterizing the spatial distribution of suitable conditions for species, and have recently been applied to the challenge of locating potential distributional areas at the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) when unfavorable climate conditions led to range contractions and fragmentation. Here, we compare and contrast ENM-based reconstructions of LGM refugial locations with those resulting from the more traditional molecular genetic and phylogeographic predictions. We examined 20 North American terrestrial vertebrate species from different regions and with different range sizes for which refugia have been identified based on phylogeographic analyses, using ENM tools to make parallel predictions. We then assessed the correspondence between the two approaches based on spatial overlap and areal extent of the predicted refugia. In 14 of the 20 species, the predictions from ENM and predictions based on phylogeographic studies were significantly spatially correlated, suggesting that the two approaches to development of refugial maps are converging on a similar result. Our results confirm that ENM scenario exploration can provide a useful complement to molecular studies, offering a less subjective, spatially explicit hypothesis of past geographic patterns of distribution

Latitudinal diversity gradients in New World bats: are they a consequence of niche conservatism?

The increase in species diversity from the Poles to the Equator is a major biogeographic pattern, but the mechanisms underlying it remain obscure. Our aim is to contribute to their clarification by describing the latitudinal gradients in species richness and in evolutionary age of species of New World bats, and testing if those patterns may be explained by the niche conservatism hypothesis. Maps of species ranges were used to estimate species richness in a 100 x 100 km grid. Root distances in a molecular phylogeny were used as a proxy for the age of species, and the mean root distance of the species in each cell of the grid was estimated. Generalised additive models were used to relate latitude with both species richness and mean root distance. This was done for each of the three most specious bat families and for all Chiroptera combined. Species richness increases towards the Equator in the whole of the Chiroptera and in the Phyllostomidae and Molossidae, families that radiated in the tropics, but the opposite trend is observed in the Vespertilionidae, which has a presumed temperate origin. In the whole of the Chiroptera, and in the three main families, there were more basal species in the higher latitudes, and more derived species in tropical areas. In general, our results were not consistent with the predictions of niche conservatism. Tropical niche conservatism seems to keep bat clades of tropical origin from colonizing temperate zones, as they lack adaptations to survive cold winters, such as the capacity to hibernate. However, the lower diversity of Vespertilionidae in the Neotropics is better explained by competition with a diverse pre-existing community of bats than by niche conservatism.MJRP was supported by Foundation for Science and Technology, Portugal (www.fct.pt), fellowship SFRH/BD/19620/2004 and SFRH/BPD/ 72845/2010. The funders had no role in study design, data collection and analysis, decision to publish, or preparation of the manuscript. We thank J. P. Granadeiro and R. Lemos for advice on statistical methods, J. A. Diniz-Filho for support with SAM software, and M. A. Dias and P. E. Cardoso for help with the distributional maps. O. R. P. Bininda-Emonds kindly gave us access to the Chiroptera species-level phylogeny. Bat data was provided by NatureServe in collaboration with Bruce Patterson, Wes Sechrest, Marcelo Tognelli, Gerardo Ceballos, the Nature Conservancy-Migratory Bird Program, Conservation International-CABS, World Wildlife Fund-US, and Environment Canada-WILDSPACE - http://www.natureserve.org/infonatura.publishe