The "Business Cycle" as Slowly Varying Coefficients

business cycles

The Decomposition of Economic Relationships by Time Scale Using Wavelets

This paper uses wavelets to produce an orthogonal decomposition of some economic variables by time scale over six different time scales. The relationships of interest are the permanent income hypothesis and velocity.ECONOMETRICS

Time Irreversibility and Business Cycle Asymmetry

econometrics ; tests

Forecatability of Driven Oscillators with Noise

time series ; macroeconomics ; evaluation

A Reassessment of Dimension Calculations Using Some Monetary Data

economic models ; evaluation

The Privatization of New York City Subway

transport ; privatization

Gold as an inflation hedge?

This paper attempts to reconcile an apparent contradiction between short-run and long-run movements in the price of gold. The theoretical model suggests a set of conditions under which the price of gold rises over time at the general rate of inflation and hence be an effective hedge against inflation. The model also demonstrates that short-run changes in the gold lease rate, the real interest rate, convenience yield, default risk, the covariance of gold returns with other assets and the dollar/world exchange rate can disturb this equilibrium relationship and generate short-run price volatility. Using monthly gold price data (1976-1999), and cointegration regression techniques, an empirical analysis confirms the central hypotheses of the theoretical model

A cyclical period variation detected in the updated orbital period analysis of TV Columbae

The two CCD photometries of the intermediate polar TV Columbae are made for obtaining the two updated eclipse timings with high precision. There is an interval time \sim 17yr since the last mid-eclipse time observed in 1991. Thus, the new mid-eclipse times can offer an opportunity to check the previous orbital ephemerides. A calculation indicates that the orbital ephemeris derived by Augusteijn et al. (1994) should be corrected. Based on the proper linear ephemeris (Hellier, 1993), the new orbital period analysis suggests a cyclical period variation in the O-C diagram of TV Columbae. Using Applegate's mechanism to explain the periodic oscillation in O-C diagram, the required energy is larger than that a M0-type star can afford over a complete variation period \sim 31.0(\pm 3.0)yr. Thus, the light travel-time effect indicates that the tertiary component in TV Columbae may be a dwarf with a low mass, which is near the mass lower limit \sim 0.08Msun as long as the inclination of the third body high enough.Comment: 10 pages, 5 figure