U.S. and Canadian Industrial Production Indices as Coupled Oscillators.

This paper explores the impact of different types of dynamical linkages (coupling) between the indices of industrial production for the U.S. and Canada. The Ozaki model provides an appropriate empirical framework for analyzing the dynamic path of each economy's productive activity because it provides an effective approximation to continuous time differential equations. We examine a combination of six different types of linkage between the indices of production. Major questions we study include whether the linkages increase or decrease the stability of the equilibrium paths, whether the linkages encourage or discourage business cycle oscillations, and whether the oscillations are synchronized.PRODUCTION ; PROJECTIONS ; ECONOMETRICS

Wavelets in Economics and Finance: Past and Future

In this paper I review what insights we have gained about economic and financial relationships from the use of wavelets and speculate on what further insights we may gain in the future. Wavelets are treated as a "lens" that enables the researcher to explore relationships that previously were unobservable.WAVELETS; TIME SCALE; FORECASTS; OSCILLATING FREQUENCIES; DENOISING; CONSUMPTION FUNCTION; INCOME VELOCITY; TIME VARYING DELAYS

Seasonal Economic Data As Approximate Harmonic Oscillators

economic models ; time series

The "Business Cycle" as Slowly Varying Coefficients

business cycles

The Decomposition of Economic Relationships by Time Scale Using Wavelets

This paper uses wavelets to produce an orthogonal decomposition of some economic variables by time scale over six different time scales. The relationships of interest are the permanent income hypothesis and velocity.ECONOMETRICS

Time Irreversibility and Business Cycle Asymmetry

econometrics ; tests

Forecatability of Driven Oscillators with Noise

time series ; macroeconomics ; evaluation

A Reassessment of Dimension Calculations Using Some Monetary Data

economic models ; evaluation

The Privatization of New York City Subway

transport ; privatization

Gold as an inflation hedge?

This paper attempts to reconcile an apparent contradiction between short-run and long-run movements in the price of gold. The theoretical model suggests a set of conditions under which the price of gold rises over time at the general rate of inflation and hence be an effective hedge against inflation. The model also demonstrates that short-run changes in the gold lease rate, the real interest rate, convenience yield, default risk, the covariance of gold returns with other assets and the dollar/world exchange rate can disturb this equilibrium relationship and generate short-run price volatility. Using monthly gold price data (1976-1999), and cointegration regression techniques, an empirical analysis confirms the central hypotheses of the theoretical model