Endogenous Cycles in Optimal Monetary Policy with a Nonlinear Phillips Curve

There is by now a large consensus in modern monetary policy. This consensus has been built upon a dynamic general equilibrium model of optimal monetary policy with sticky prices a la Calvo and forward looking behavior. In this paper we extend this standard model by introducing nonlinearity into the Phillips curve. As the linear Phillips curve may be questioned on theoretical grounds and seems not to be favoured by empirical evidence, a similar procedure has already been undertaken in a series papers over the last few years, e.g., Schaling (1999), Semmler and Zhang (2004), Nobay and Peel (2000), Tambakis (1999), and Dolado et al. (2004). However, these papers were mainly concerned with the analysis of the problem of inflation bias, by deriving an interest rate rule which is nonlinear, leaving the issues of stability and the possible existence of endogenous cycles in such a framework mostly overlooked. Under the specific form of nonlinearity proposed in our paper (which allows for both convexity and concavity and secures closed form solutions), we show that the introduction of a nonlinear Phillips curve into a fully deterministic structure of the standard model produces significant changes to the major conclusions regarding stability and the efficiency of monetary policy in the standard model. We should emphasize the following main results: (i) instead of a unique fixed point we end up with multiple equilibria; (ii) instead of saddle--path stability, for different sets of parameter values we may have saddle stability, totally unstable and chaotic fixed points (endogenous cycles); (iii) for certain degrees of convexity and/or concavity of the Phillips curve, where endogenous fluctuations arise, one is able to encounter various results that seem interesting. Firstly, when the Central Bank pays attention essentially to inflation targeting, the inflation rate may have a lower mean and is certainly less volatile; secondly, for changes in the degree of price stickiness the results are not are clear cut as in the previous case, however, we can also observe that when such stickiness is high the inflation rate tends to display a somewhat larger mean and also higher volatility; and thirdly, it shows that the target values for inflation and the output gap (π^,x^), both crucially affect the dynamics of the economy in terms of average values and volatility of the endogenous variables --- e.g., the higher the target value of the output gap chosen by the Central Bank, the higher is the inflation rate and its volatility --- while in the linear case only the π^ does so (obviously, only affecting in this case the level of the endogenous variables). Moreover, the existence of endogenous cycles due to chaotic motion may raise serious questions about whether the old dictum of monetary policy (that the Central Bank should conduct policy with discretion instead of commitment) is not still very much in the business of monetary policy.Optimal monetary policy, Interest Rate Rules, Nonlinear Phillips Curve, Endogenous Fluctuations and Stabilization

Modelo de previsão da deformação permanente de fundações de vias-férreas com recurso a uma rede neuronal artificial

The prediction of the permanent deformation in the subgrade and its reliability is one of the main concerns of the Railway Infrastructure Managers, as it can influence the reduction of the maintenance costs of the track in service. This study proposes a novel methodology for predicting permanent deformation based on a parametric study performed using a hybrid approach that includes the short and long term performance. The conducted study allowed the construction of a robust database used in this study to forecast the permanent deformation. The database feeds the neural network model, whose performance was evaluated using different metrics: MAE, MSE, RMSE, standard deviation, and regression coefficient. The model was tested and validated based on experimental results. The obtained results demonstrate that the developed model is rapid and efficient in accurately predicting the permanent deformation induced by the passage of trains. The model has the potential to be implemented in a computational decision support system for railway track maintenance and management.A previsão da deformação permanente na fundação e respetiva fiabilidade é uma das principais preocupações dos gestores das Infraestruturas Ferroviárias, pois pode influenciar os custos de manutenção da via em serviço. Este artigo propõe uma nova metodologia relativa à previsão da deformação permanente com base num estudo paramétrico realizado usando uma abordagem híbrida e que inclui o desempenho a curto e longo prazo. O estudo realizado permitiu a construção de uma base de dados robusta que foi utilizada neste estudo para prever a deformação permanente. A base de dados alimenta um modelo da rede neuronal, cujo desempenho foi avaliado com base em diferentes métricas: MAE, MSE, RMSE, desvio padrão e coeficiente de regressão. O modelo foi testado e validado com base em resultados experimentais. Os resultados obtidos mostram que o modelo desenvolvido é rápido e eficiente para prever com precisão a deformação permanente induzida pela passagem dos comboios. O modelo tem o potencial para ser implementado num sistema computacional de apoio de decisão para manutenção e gestão de linhas ferroviárias.Este trabalho foi parcialmente realizado no âmbito do In2Track3, um projeto de investigação do Shift2Rail. Este trabalho foi também parcialmente financiado pela FCT/MCTES através de fundos nacionais (PIDDAC) no âmbito da Unidade de I&D Institute for Sustainability and Innovation in Structural Engineering (ISISE), sob a referência UIDB/04029/2020. Adicionalmente, contou com o apoio financeiro de Base Funding -UIDB/04708/2020 do CONSTRUCT - Instituto de I&D em Estruturas e Construções - financiado por fundos nacionais através do FCT/MCTES (PIDDAC)

The impact of early protein intake and nutritional status in critically ill patients

info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersio

As aulas de campo na educação em geologia : uma proposta para a região da mina da panasqueira, Portugal central

Este estudo desenvolveu-se no âmbito das actividades de campo como uma estratégia importante no ensino da Geologia, também numa perspectiva ambiental. O objectivo principal relaciona-se com o valor atribuído à formulação e resolução de questões-problema de âmbito ambiental (local/regional) na Educação em Ciências da Terra. Para isso, com base na avaliação efectuada através da aplicação de um questionário a professores do ensino básico e secundário (N= 52), a leccionar Ciências Naturais e Biologia e Geologia em escolas dos concelhos do Fundão e da Covilhã (Portugal Central), e tendo em conta a dinâmica pretendida com a implementação das Orientações Curriculares actuais, construiu-se uma proposta de modelo de aula de campo para o ensino e aprendizagem das Ciências da Terra, numa perspectiva do Ensino Experimental das Ciências

Planning a sustainable reverse logistics system: balancing costs with environmental and social concerns

The present work aims to support tactical and operational planning decisions of reverse logistics systems while considering economical, environmental and social objectives. In the literature, when addressing such systems economical aspects have been often used, while environmental concerns have been only recently emerging. The social component is the one less studied, and rarely the combination of the three concerns has been analyzed. This work address the three objectives and was motivated by the challenge of supporting decisions makers when managing a real case study of a recyclable waste collection system, where strategic decisions on the number and location of depots, vehicles and containers were taken beforehand. Tactical and operational decisions are studied involving the establishment of service areas for each depot and the definition and scheduling of collection routes for each vehicle. Such decisions should represent a compromise solution between the three objectives considered and support a sustainable reverse logistics plan. A multi-objective solution approach based on mixed-integer linear programming models is developed. Trade-offs between the objectives are discussed. Moreover the solutions obtained when each objective is tackled individually are compared between themselves and with the balanced solution.info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersio

Economic and environmental concerns in planning recyclable waste collection systems

This paper addresses the planning of recyclable waste collection systems while accounting for economic and environmental concerns. Service areas and vehicle routes are defined for multiple-depot logistics networks where different products have to be collected. The problem is modeled as a multi-product, multi-depot vehicle routing problem with two objective functions: distance and CO2 emissions minimization. A decomposition solution method is developed and applied to a real case-study. Six scenarios are studied regarding different service areas configuration and different objective functions. Savings up to 22% in distance and 27% in CO2 emissions are achieved, excelling economical and environmental goals.info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersio

Chaotic Dynamics in Optimal Monetary Policy

There is by now a large consensus in modern monetary policy. This consensus has been built upon a dynamic general equilibrium model of optimal monetary policy as developed by, e.g., Goodfriend and King (1997), Clarida et al. (1999), Svensson (1999) and Woodford (2003). In this paper we extend the standard optimal monetary policy model by introducing nonlinearity into the Phillips curve. Under the specific form of nonlinearity proposed in our paper (which allows for convexity and concavity and secures closed form solutions), we show that the introduction of a nonlinear Phillips curve into the structure of the standard model in a discrete time and deterministic framework produces radical changes to the major conclusions regarding stability and the efficiency of monetary policy. We emphasize the following main results: (i) instead of a unique fixed point we end up with multiple equilibria; (ii) instead of saddle--path stability, for different sets of parameter values we may have saddle stability, totally unstable equilibria and chaotic attractors; (iii) for certain degrees of convexity and/or concavity of the Phillips curve, where endogenous fluctuations arise, one is able to encounter various results that seem intuitively correct. Firstly, when the Central Bank pays attention essentially to inflation targeting, the inflation rate has a lower mean and is less volatile; secondly, when the degree of price stickiness is high, the inflation rate displays a larger mean and higher volatility (but this is sensitive to the values given to the parameters of the model); and thirdly, the higher the target value of the output gap chosen by the Central Bank, the higher is the inflation rate and its volatility.Comment: 11 page

Songbirds promote connectivity between riparian galleries and adjacent habitats

Riparian galleries are among the most vulnerable habitats in the world and are well known for their importance to the most specialized riparian bird species. In this study, we analyzed songbird composition, songbird diet, trophic ecology and seed dispersal in riparian galleries and adjacent Montado matrices in southern Portugal to address the importance of birds in promoting the connectivity between riparian galleries and adjacent habitats. We used fecal samples to compare diet, and blood samples to compare nitrogen stable isotopes from birds in these two habitats. The seasonal variation in the abundance of arthropods and fruits was evaluated in both habitats and seed movement between both habitats was assessed from fruits marked with fluorescence. Abundance of food resources for birds (arthropods and fruits) declined throughout the season in a similar way for both habitats, and there were strong similarities in the diet and trophic ecology of songbirds in the riparian gallery and adjacent habitat. In both habitats, birds preyed heavily on Hymenoptera and Coleoptera but birds more abundant in the Montado fed more on Araneae and Hymenoptera. Seeds were moved significantly more frequently from the riparian gallery into the adjacent Montado than vice-versa. Our results suggest that birds from the adjacent habitat move frequently to the riparian gallery to forage and disperse seeds into the adjacent habitat as they depart. This study shows that birds play an important role in promoting connectivity between riparian galleries and adjacent habitats

Características quimico-nutricionais da polpa de Caryocar coriaceum WITTM da região Meio-Norte do Brasil.

A espécie Caryocar coriaceum (pequi) é típica da região Meio-Norte do Brasil e de outras regiões do Nordeste, onde faz parte da sua culinária e do dia-a-dia nordestino. Objetivou-se neste trabalho avaliar características químicas e nutricionais da polpa de pequi, de origem dos Estados do Piauí e Maranhão. As seguintes características foram avaliadas: acidez total titulável (ATT), pH, e percentagens de gordura (GORD), proteína bruta (PB), fibra bruta (FB) e carboidratos (CT). Os resultados indicam que a variabilidade é bem maior entre indivíduos nas diversas populações que entre populações. Em geral, maiores teores de GORD e FB foram obtidos em indivíduos de populações do Maranhão, ao passo que em PB os maiores foram observados em indivíduos provenientes de populações do Piauí

Late Holocene natural and man induced environmental changes in Western Iberian coast: assessing forcing factors

The Western coast of the Iberian Peninsula stands as an interface between both the Atlantic and Mediterranean climatic influences and marine / fluvial conditions. The paper aims to assess the environmental changes in the last ca 6000 years (both natural and anthropogenic induced) using multiproxy analysis (geomorphological and sedimentological data, elemental and stable isotope content, microfossil assemblages, radiocarbon dating, and historical records) applied to an embayed coast. The results showed the prevalence of marine environment until 6272-6000 cal BP, but with fluvial infilling of the inner embayment, even before present sea level was reached (ca 4500-4000 cal BP). The influx of sediments was probably the result of the four recorded wet episodes (at modelled age cal BP (2σ): E1 – 6067-4770, E2 – 5806-4409, E3 – 5383-4088, and E4 – 4086-3905). These great sediment influxes along the previous 3000 years continues until 2110-1962 cal BP triggering the downstream migration of the river mouth, the development of a sand barrier coast and of a sheltered lagoon inside the palaeo-embayment.Afterwards the sedimentation rate (SR) reached high values (0.19-0.48 cmyr-1), as the result of Roman intervention in the drainage basin where pastures and local fires are recorded, together with an increasing dryness. A major disturbance is recorded in the Pollen Assemblages Zones (between PAZ II and PAZ III) and in the sediments around 1863-1706 cal BP (2σ), in the transition from the Roman Age to the Muslim invasion period, probably reflecting a hiatus in the sedimentary record. Onwards, SR reached 0.21-0.57 cmyr-1. Two major hydro marine episodes may have contributed to this fact: the latter is the Lisbon tsunami (1755 AD) while the former may reflect the 16th Century tsunamis or a great marine storm episode. An aeolian environment prevailed since then and the embayment was transformed into a dune field interrupted only by the narrow channel of the river whose mouth is often closed.info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersio