Antimycobacterial immune responses in HIV-infected children starting antiretroviral therapy in Lusaka, Zambia

Background: Children infected with HIV are at risk of developing tuberculosis (TB). Antiretroviral therapy has been linked to improved immune responses to TB. The objectives of the study were to determine the magnitude and quality of immune reconstitution in HIV-infected children receiving antiretroviral therapy (ART) and to determine pathogen-specific immune reconstitution to Mycobacterium tuberculosis.Methods: A total of 59 children of age 9 months to 5 years initiating ART with a history of BCG vaccination from Matero Reference Clinic in Lusaka were enrolled in a prospective cohort study. Demographic and clinical data were collected using questionnaires. Blood samples were drawn before starting ART, at 3 months and 6 months for measurement of T cell subsets and PPD stimulation for intracellular cytokine staining.Results: After 6 months of ART, the median CD4 T cell percentage increased from 9.4% at baseline to 25.9% (p < 0.001). Total CD8 T cell percentage decreased from 42.8% pre-ART to 36.5% after 6 months of ART (p = 0.010). However, naïve CD8 T cells increased within the same period (p = 0.038). Both activated CD4 and CD8 T cells decreased after 6 months of ART (p < 0.001). On the other hand, both central memory CD4 and CD8 T cells increased after 6 months of ART (p = 0.029 and 0.021, respectively), while effector memory CD8 T cells decreased (p=0.006). After 3 months of ART, CD4 T cells expressing IFN-ã decreased (p = 0.033) but after 6 months of ART the percentage increased to pre-ART levels.Conclusion: ART has a positive impact on HIV infected children, likely reducing the risk of tuberculosis as evidenced by the increases in CD4 T cells critical to an effective immune response against TB. Before starting ART, anti-mycobacterial immune responses seem to be primarily driven by effector memory T cells while after ART by central memory T cells. Therefore, central memory T cells appear to be the primary cells in restoring specific immune responses. These findings have valuable implications for TB vaccine development strategies in HIV-infected children

Influenza outbreak control practices and the effectiveness of interventions in long-term care facilities: A systematic review

Background: Evaluation of influenza control measures frequently focuses on the efficacy of chemoprophylaxis and vaccination, while the effectiveness of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPI) receives less emphasis. While influenza control measures are frequently reported for individual outbreaks, there have been few efforts to characterize the real-world effectiveness of these interventions across outbreaks. Objectives: To characterize influenza case and outbreak definitions and control measures reported by long-term care facilities (LTCFs) of elderly adults and estimate the reduction in influenza-like illness (ILI) attack rates due to chemoprophylaxis and NPI. Methods: We conducted a literature search in PubMed including English-language studies reporting influenza outbreaks among elderly individuals in LTCFs. A Bayesian hierarchical logistic regression model estimated the effects of control measures on ILI attack rates. Results: Of 654 articles identified in the literature review, 37 articles describing 60 influenza outbreaks met the inclusion criteria. Individuals in facilities where chemoprophylaxis was used were significantly less likely to develop influenza A or B than those in facilities with no interventions [odds ratio (OR) 0·48, 95% CI: 0·28, 0·84]. Considered by drug class, adamantanes significantly reduced infection risk (OR 0·22, 95% CI: 0·12, 0·42), while neuraminidase inhibitors did not show a significant effect. Although NPI showed no significant effect, the results suggest that personal protective equipment may produce modest protective effects. Conclusions: Our results indicate pharmaceutical control measures have the clearest reported protective effect in LTCFs. Non-pharmaceutical approaches may be useful; however, most data were from observational studies and standardized reporting or well-conducted clinical trials of NPI are needed to more precisely measure these effects

Variability in dengue titer estimates from plaque reduction neutralization tests poses a challenge to epidemiological studies and vaccine development.

BACKGROUND: Accurate determination of neutralization antibody titers supports epidemiological studies of dengue virus transmission and vaccine trials. Neutralization titers measured using the plaque reduction neutralization test (PRNT) are believed to provide a key measure of immunity to dengue viruses, however, the assay's variability is poorly understood, making it difficult to interpret the significance of any assay reading. In addition there is limited standardization of the neutralization evaluation point or statistical model used to estimate titers across laboratories, with little understanding of the optimum approach. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: We used repeated assays on the same two pools of serum using five different viruses (2,319 assays) to characterize the variability in the technique under identical experimental conditions. We also assessed the performance of multiple statistical models to interpolate continuous values of neutralization titer from discrete measurements from serial dilutions. We found that the variance in plaque reductions for individual dilutions was 0.016, equivalent to a 95% confidence interval of 0.45-0.95 for an observed plaque reduction of 0.7. We identified PRNT75 as the optimum evaluation point with a variance of 0.025 (log10 scale), indicating a titer reading of 1∶500 had 95% confidence intervals of 1∶240-1∶1000 (2.70±0.31 on a log10 scale). The choice of statistical model was not important for the calculation of relative titers, however, cloglog regression out-performed alternatives where absolute titers are of interest. Finally, we estimated that only 0.7% of assays would falsely detect a four-fold difference in titers between acute and convalescent sera where no true difference exists. CONCLUSIONS: Estimating and reporting assay uncertainty will aid the interpretation of individual titers. Laboratories should perform a small number of repeat assays to generate their own variability estimates. These could be used to calculate confidence intervals for all reported titers and allow benchmarking of assay performance

Dengue virus neutralizing antibody levels associated with protection from infection in Thai cluster studies

BACKGROUND: Long-term homologous and temporary heterologous protection from dengue virus (DENV) infection may be mediated by neutralizing antibodies. However, neutralizing antibody titers (NTs) have not been clearly associated with protection from infection. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: Data from two geographic cluster studies conducted in Kamphaeng Phet, Thailand were used for this analysis. In the first study (2004-2007), cluster investigations of 100-meter radius were triggered by DENV-infected index cases from a concurrent prospective cohort. Subjects between 6 months and 15 years old were evaluated for DENV infection at days 0 and 15 by DENV PCR and IgM ELISA. In the second study (2009-2012), clusters of 200-meter radius were triggered by DENV-infected index cases admitted to the provincial hospital. Subjects of any age 6 months and older were evaluated for DENV infection at days 0 and 14. In both studies, subjects who were DENV PCR positive at day 14/15 were considered to have been susceptible on day 0. Comparison subjects from houses in which someone had documented DENV infection, but the subject remained DENV negative at days 0 and 14/15, were considered non-susceptible. Day 0 samples were presumed to be from just before virus exposure, and underwent plaque reduction neutralization testing (PRNT). Seventeen susceptible (six DENV-1, five DENV-2, and six DENV-4), and 32 non-susceptible (13 exposed to DENV-1, 10 DENV-2, and 9 DENV-4) subjects were evaluated. Comparing subjects exposed to the same serotype, receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves identified homotypic PRNT titers of 11, 323 and 16 for DENV-1, -2 and -4, respectively, to differentiate susceptible from non-susceptible subjects. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: PRNT titers were associated with protection from infection by DENV-1, -2 and -4. Protective NTs appeared to be serotype-dependent and may be higher for DENV-2 than other serotypes. These findings are relevant for both dengue epidemiology studies and vaccine development efforts

The burden of respiratory infections among older adults in long-term care:a systematic review

BACKGROUND: Respiratory infections among older adults in long-term care facilities (LTCFs) are a major global concern, yet a rigorous systematic synthesis of the literature on the burden of respiratory infections in the LTCF setting is lacking. To address the critical need for evidence regarding the global burden of respiratory infections in LTCFs, we assessed the burden of respiratory infections in LTCFs through a systematic review of the published literature. METHODS: We identified articles published between April 1964 and March 2019 through searches of PubMed (MEDLINE), EMBASE, and the Cochrane Library. Experimental and observational studies published in English that included adults aged ≥60 residing in LTCFs who were unvaccinated (to identify the natural infection burden), and that reported measures of occurrence for influenza, respiratory syncytial virus (RSV), or pneumonia were included. Disagreements about article inclusion were discussed and articles were included based on consensus. Data on study design, population, and findings were extracted from each article. Findings were synthesized qualitatively. RESULTS: A total of 1451 articles were screened for eligibility, 345 were selected for full-text review, and 26 were included. Study population mean ages ranged from 70.8 to 90.1 years. Three (12%) studies reported influenza estimates, 7 (27%) RSV, and 16 (62%) pneumonia. Eighteen (69%) studies reported incidence estimates, 7 (27%) prevalence estimates, and 1 (4%) both. Seven (27%) studies reported outbreaks. Respiratory infection incidence estimates ranged from 1.1 to 85.2% and prevalence estimates ranging from 1.4 to 55.8%. Influenza incidences ranged from 5.9 to 85.2%. RSV incidence proportions ranged from 1.1 to 13.5%. Pneumonia prevalence proportions ranged from 1.4 to 55.8% while incidence proportions ranged from 4.8 to 41.2%. CONCLUSIONS: The reported incidence and prevalence estimates of respiratory infections among older LTCF residents varied widely between published studies. The wide range of estimates offers little useful guidance for decision-making to decrease respiratory infection burden. Large, well-designed epidemiologic studies are therefore still necessary to credibly quantify the burden of respiratory infections among older adults in LTCFs, which will ultimately help inform future surveillance and intervention efforts

Experimental Evolution of an Oncolytic Vesicular Stomatitis Virus with Increased Selectivity for p53-Deficient Cells

Experimental evolution has been used for various biotechnological applications including protein and microbial cell engineering, but less commonly in the field of oncolytic virotherapy. Here, we sought to adapt a rapidly evolving RNA virus to cells deficient for the tumor suppressor gene p53, a hallmark of cancer cells. To achieve this goal, we established four independent evolution lines of the vesicular stomatitis virus (VSV) in p53-knockout mouse embryonic fibroblasts (p53−/− MEFs) under conditions favoring the action of natural selection. We found that some evolved viruses showed increased fitness and cytotoxicity in p53−/− cells but not in isogenic p53+/+ cells, indicating gene-specific adaptation. However, full-length sequencing revealed no obvious or previously described genetic changes associated with oncolytic activity. Half-maximal effective dose (EC50) assays in mouse p53-positive colon cancer (CT26) and p53-deficient breast cancer (4T1) cells indicated that the evolved viruses were more effective against 4T1 cells than the parental virus or a reference oncolytic VSV (MΔ51), but showed no increased efficacy against CT26 cells. In vivo assays using 4T1 syngeneic tumor models showed that one of the evolved lines significantly delayed tumor growth compared to mice treated with the parental virus or untreated controls, and was able to induce transient tumor suppression. Our results show that RNA viruses can be specifically adapted typical cancer features such as p53 inactivation, and illustrate the usefulness of experimental evolution for oncolytic virotherapy

Challenges of COVID-19 Case Forecasting in the US, 2020–2021

During the COVID-19 pandemic, forecasting COVID-19 trends to support planning and response was a priority for scientists and decision makers alike. In the United States, COVID-19 forecasting was coordinated by a large group of universities, companies, and government entities led by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and the US COVID-19 Forecast Hub (https://covid19forecasthub.org). We evaluated approximately 9.7 million forecasts of weekly state-level COVID-19 cases for predictions 1-4 weeks into the future submitted by 24 teams from August 2020 to December 2021. We assessed coverage of central prediction intervals and weighted interval scores (WIS), adjusting for missing forecasts relative to a baseline forecast, and used a Gaussian generalized estimating equation (GEE) model to evaluate differences in skill across epidemic phases that were defined by the effective reproduction number. Overall, we found high variation in skill across individual models, with ensemble-based forecasts outperforming other approaches. Forecast skill relative to the baseline was generally higher for larger jurisdictions (e.g., states compared to counties). Over time, forecasts generally performed worst in periods of rapid changes in reported cases (either in increasing or decreasing epidemic phases) with 95% prediction interval coverage dropping below 50% during the growth phases of the winter 2020, Delta, and Omicron waves. Ideally, case forecasts could serve as a leading indicator of changes in transmission dynamics. However, while most COVID-19 case forecasts outperformed a naïve baseline model, even the most accurate case forecasts were unreliable in key phases. Further research could improve forecasts of leading indicators, like COVID-19 cases, by leveraging additional real-time data, addressing performance across phases, improving the characterization of forecast confidence, and ensuring that forecasts were coherent across spatial scales. In the meantime, it is critical for forecast users to appreciate current limitations and use a broad set of indicators to inform pandemic-related decision making

Evaluation of the US COVID-19 Scenario Modeling Hub for informing pandemic response under uncertainty

Our ability to forecast epidemics far into the future is constrained by the many complexities of disease systems. Realistic longer-term projections may, however, be possible under well-defined scenarios that specify the future state of critical epidemic drivers. Since December 2020, the U.S. COVID-19 Scenario Modeling Hub (SMH) has convened multiple modeling teams to make months ahead projections of SARS-CoV-2 burden, totaling nearly 1.8 million national and state-level projections. Here, we find SMH performance varied widely as a function of both scenario validity and model calibration. We show scenarios remained close to reality for 22 weeks on average before the arrival of unanticipated SARS-CoV-2 variants invalidated key assumptions. An ensemble of participating models that preserved variation between models (using the linear opinion pool method) was consistently more reliable than any single model in periods of valid scenario assumptions, while projection interval coverage was near target levels. SMH projections were used to guide pandemic response, illustrating the value of collaborative hubs for longer-term scenario projections