The biogeographic basis of Ebola-virus disease outbreaks: A model for other zoonotic diseases?

We first determined the differential role of favorability of environmental conditions and mammalian chorotypes in explaining the presence of the Ebola virus in Africa. We then combined environmental factors and chorotypes using fuzzy logic, which better explained the distribution of Ebola virus. The core area for the virus was associated with human infections of known animal origin, with infections of unknown source detected in areas that are biogeographically more peripheral. Variation in the environmental favorability for disease outbreaks may be monitored using indices of macroclimatic oscillations. This may provide the basis for an early warning system based on the variation in macroclimatic indices and the locations where human contact with multiple animal species tend to occur. We propose to study the biogeography of zoonoses by: 1) determining the potential spatial distribution of these diseases, according to environmental factors and the biogeographic structure of animals linked to the zoonosis cycle; 2) search for relationships between disease outbreaks and global atmospheric oscillations to forecast periods of higher risk of emergence of the infectious diseases.Universidad de Málaga. Campus de Excelencia Internacional Andalucía Tech

Phylogenetic triangulation: Using predator-prey-parasite interactions to infer population history from partial genetic information

Phylogeographic studies, which infer population history and dispersal movements from intra-specific spatial genetic variation, require expensive and time-consuming analyses that are not always feasible, especially in the case of rare or endangered species. On the other hand, comparative phylogeography of species involved in close biotic interactions may show congruent patterns depending on the specificity of the relationship. Consequently, the phylogeography of a parasite that needs two hosts to complete its life cycle should reflect population history traits of both hosts. Population movements evidenced by the parasite's phylogeography that are not reflected in the phylogeography of one of these hosts may thus be attributed to the other host. Using the wild rabbit (Oryctolagus cuniculus) and a parasitic tapeworm (Taenia pisiformis) as an example, we propose comparing the phylogeography of easily available organisms such as game species and their specific heteroxenous parasites to infer population movements of definitive host/predator species, independently of performing genetic analyses on the latter. This may be an interesting approach for indirectly studying the history of species whose phylogeography is difficult to analyse directly

Aplicación de la lógica difusa al concepto de rareza para su uso en "gap analysis": el caso de los mamíferos terrestres en Andalucía

Se ha modelado la distribución de los datos de presencia/ausencia de los mamíferos terrestres (a excepción de los murciélagos) en las cuadrículas UTM de 10 km x10 km de Andalucía. Mediante una función de favorabilidad a partir de 30 variables ambientales, y tras aplicar conceptos de la lógica difusa, se ha obtenido la distribución de las áreas favorables para cada una de las especies estudiadas. Se han calculado unos índices de rareza para detectar cuáles son las áreas que concentran un mayor número de especies de distribución restringida. Uno de estos índices parte de los datos originales del atlas de distribución de los mamíferos y el otro de las distribuciones obtenidas tras la modelación. En uno y otro caso se superpuso la Red de Espacios Protegidos de Andalucía (RENPA) a las zonas que concentran una mayor rareza para conocer cuáles son los desajustes en la conservación. Los desajustes (zonas importantes por la rareza de mamíferos que albergan y que no están protegidas) ocupan un número similar de cuadrículas en ambos casos, aunque localizados en zonas diferentes. Además, en el primer caso forman 32 bloques dispersos, mientras que tras aplicar la lógica difusa el número de bloques se reduce a 17 zonas más amplias y que coinciden con enclaves geográficos mejor definidos. Estos resultados indican que la modelación y la lógica difusa pueden ser herramientas útiles para conocer cuál es el valor de conservación de un territorio y ayudan a definir mejor los desajustes que aparecen en la protección de su biodiversidad.We modelled the distribution of terrestrial mammals (excluding bats) in Andalusia (S of Spain) on the basis of their presence/absence data on a grid of 10 km x 10 km UTM cells. Using a favourability function, 30 environmental variables and fuzzy logic, we obtained the distribution of the favourable areas for each species. We calculated rarity indices to identify the places with high concentration of species with small geographic ranges. One of these indices uses the distribution data of the atlas of mammals and the other the distribution obtained after modelling. In both cases, we overlaid the protected area network of Andalusia (RENPA) over the areas with high rarity values, and the gaps (areas with high rarity values without protection) were similar in number of cells but different in location. Besides, in the first case we obtained 32 dispersed groups of cells, while after the application of fuzzy logic there were only 17 larger groups which coincide with better defined geographic sites. These results show that modelling and fuzzy logic are useful tools to assess the conservation value of a territory and that they are helpful to better define the gaps in the protection of its biodiversity

Aplicación de la lógica difusa al concepto de rareza para su uso en "gap analysis": el caso de los mamíferos terrestres en Andalucía

Se ha modelado la distribución de los datos de presencia/ausencia de los mamíferos terrestres (a excepción de los murciélagos) en las cuadrículas UTM de 10 km x10 km de Andalucía. Mediante una función de favorabilidad a partir de 30 variables ambientales, y tras aplicar conceptos de la lógica difusa, se ha obtenido la distribución de las áreas favorables para cada una de las especies estudiadas. Se han calculado unos índices de rareza para detectar cuáles son las áreas que concentran un mayor número de especies de distribución restringida. Uno de estos índices parte de los datos originales del atlas de distribución de los mamíferos y el otro de las distribuciones obtenidas tras la modelación. En uno y otro caso se superpuso la Red de Espacios Protegidos de Andalucía (RENPA) a las zonas que concentran una mayor rareza para conocer cuáles son los desajustes en la conservación. Los desajustes (zonas importantes por la rareza de mamíferos que albergan y que no están protegidas) ocupan un número similar de cuadrículas en ambos casos, aunque localizados en zonas diferentes. Además, en el primer caso forman 32 bloques dispersos, mientras que tras aplicar la lógica difusa el número de bloques se reduce a 17 zonas más amplias y que coinciden con enclaves geográficos mejor definidos. Estos resultados indican que la modelación y la lógica difusa pueden ser herramientas útiles para conocer cuál es el valor de conservación de un territorio y ayudan a definir mejor los desajustes que aparecen en la protección de su biodiversidad.We modelled the distribution of terrestrial mammals (excluding bats) in Andalusia (S of Spain) on the basis of their presence/absence data on a grid of 10 km x 10 km UTM cells. Using a favourability function, 30 environmental variables and fuzzy logic, we obtained the distribution of the favourable areas for each species. We calculated rarity indices to identify the places with high concentration of species with small geographic ranges. One of these indices uses the distribution data of the atlas of mammals and the other the distribution obtained after modelling. In both cases, we overlaid the protected area network of Andalusia (RENPA) over the areas with high rarity values, and the gaps (areas with high rarity values without protection) were similar in number of cells but different in location. Besides, in the first case we obtained 32 dispersed groups of cells, while after the application of fuzzy logic there were only 17 larger groups which coincide with better defined geographic sites. These results show that modelling and fuzzy logic are useful tools to assess the conservation value of a territory and that they are helpful to better define the gaps in the protection of its biodiversity

Is the interaction between rabbit hemorrhagic disease and hyperpredation by raptors a major cause of the red-legged partridge decline in Spain?

Hyperpredation can be described as a restrictive case of apparent competition where an increased number of primary prey species indirectly induces the decrease of the secondary prey species through numerical response of predators to the primary prey dynamics. It has been proposed that rabbit hemorrhagic disease (RHD), which decimated populations of European wild rabbit (Oryctolagus cuniculus) in Spain, led to prey switching by raptors towards red-legged partridges (Alectoris rufa) causing declines in their populations as a peculiar case of hyperpredation. We have reviewed field studies that disagree with estimates (based on bag records) of recent increases of rabbit and partridge numbers in Spain. Because of an increase in releases of farm-reared animals, there is doubt about the use of bag records to accurately estimate population trends in recent decades. We also provide new data and discuss some analytical considerations related to the temporal and spatial scales that might affect the interpretation of data. Finally, we discuss why studies associated with raptor food habits, predator population dynamics and predator distribution suggest that diet data are not sufficient to link patterns and processes. Although we agree that the RHD outbreak has markedly affected rabbit populations, which has indirectly affected many other species in the Iberian Peninsula, we consider that hyperpredation mediated by raptors has not been clearly demonstrated. In contrast, endorsing the hypothesis of raptor-mediated hyperpredation without sufficient proof may have conflictive consequences if we consider the increased persecution of raptors in recent decades in Spain.J.A. Blanco-Aguiar was supported by Fundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia (SFRH/BPD/65464/2009) grant. M. Delibes-Mateos was supported by a Juan de la Cierva research contract awarded by the Ministerio de Ciencia e Innovación—Fondo European Social Fund. F. Casas was supported by a postdoctoral grant of the Junta de Comunidades de Castilla la Mancha (JCCM).Peer Reviewe