Lying in Wait: The Resurgence of Dengue Virus After the Zika Epidemic in Brazil

After the Zika virus (ZIKV) epidemic in the Americas in 2016, both Zika and dengue incidence declined to record lows in many countries in 2017-2018, but in 2019 dengue resurged in Brazil, causing ~2.1 million cases. In this study we use epidemiological, climatological and genomic data to investigate dengue dynamics in recent years in Brazil. First, we estimate dengue virus force of infection (FOI) and model mosquito-borne transmission suitability since the early 2000s. Our estimates reveal that DENV transmission was low in 2017-2018, despite conditions being suitable for viral spread. Our study also shows a marked decline in dengue susceptibility between 2002 and 2019, which could explain the synchronous decline of dengue in the country, partially as a result of protective immunity from prior ZIKV and/or DENV infections. Furthermore, we performed phylogeographic analyses using 69 newly sequenced genomes of dengue virus serotype 1 and 2 from Brazil, and found that the outbreaks in 2018-2019 were caused by local DENV lineages that persisted for 5-10 years, circulating cryptically before and after the Zika epidemic. We hypothesize that DENV lineages may circulate at low transmission levels for many years, until local conditions are suitable for higher transmission, when they cause major outbreaks

The legacy of ZikaPLAN: a transnational research consortium addressing Zika

Global health research partnerships with institutions from high-income countries and low- and middle-income countries are one of the European Commission's flagship programmes. Here, we report on the ZikaPLAN research consortium funded by the European Commission with the primary goal of addressing the urgent knowledge gaps related to the Zika epidemic and the secondary goal of building up research capacity and establishing a Latin American-European research network for emerging vector-borne diseases. Five years of collaborative research effort have led to a better understanding of the full clinical spectrum of congenital Zika syndrome in children and the neurological complications of Zika virus infections in adults and helped explore the origins and trajectory of Zika virus transmission. Individual-level data from ZikaPLAN`s cohort studies were shared for joint analyses as part of the Zika Brazilian Cohorts Consortium, the European Commission-funded Zika Cohorts Vertical Transmission Study Group, and the World Health Organization-led Zika Virus Individual Participant Data Consortium. Furthermore, the legacy of ZikaPLAN includes new tools for birth defect surveillance and a Latin American birth defect surveillance network, an enhanced Guillain-Barre Syndrome research collaboration, a de-centralized evaluation platform for diagnostic assays, a global vector control hub, and the REDe network with freely available training resources to enhance global research capacity in vector-borne diseases

Neurological disease in adults with Zika and chikungunya virus infection in Northeast Brazil: a prospective observational study

Background: Since 2015, the arthropod-borne viruses (arboviruses) Zika and chikungunya have spread across the Americas causing outbreaks, accompanied by increases in immune-mediated and infectious neurological disease. The spectrum of neurological manifestations linked to these viruses, and the importance of dual infection, are not known fully. We aimed to investigate whether neurological presentations differed according to the infecting arbovirus, and whether patients with dual infection had a different disease spectrum or severity. Methods: We report a prospective observational study done during epidemics of Zika and chikungunya viruses in Recife, Pernambuco, a dengue-endemic area of Brazil. We recruited adults aged 18 years or older referred to Hospital da Restauração, a secondary-level and tertiary-level hospital, with suspected acute neurological disease and a history of suspected arboviral infection. We looked for evidence of Zika, chikungunya, or dengue infection by viral RNA or specific IgM antibodies in serum or CSF. We grouped patients according to their arbovirus laboratory diagnosis and then compared demographic and clinical characteristics. Findings: Between Dec 4, 2014, and Dec 4, 2016, 1410 patients were admitted to the hospital neurology service; 201 (14%) had symptoms consistent with arbovirus infection and sufficient samples for diagnostic testing and were included in the study. The median age was 48 years (IQR 34–60), and 106 (53%) were women. 148 (74%) of 201 patients had laboratory evidence of arboviral infection. 98 (49%) of them had a single viral infection (41 [20%] had Zika, 55 [27%] had chikungunya, and two [1%] had dengue infection), whereas 50 (25%) had evidence of dual infection, mostly with Zika and chikungunya viruses (46 [23%] patients). Patients positive for arbovirus infection presented with a broad range of CNS and peripheral nervous system (PNS) disease. Chikungunya infection was more often associated with CNS disease (26 [47%] of 55 patients with chikungunya infection vs six [15%] of 41 with Zika infection; p=0·0008), especially myelitis (12 [22%] patients). Zika infection was more often associated with PNS disease (26 [63%] of 41 patients with Zika infection vs nine [16%] of 55 with chikungunya infection; p≤0·0001), particularly Guillain-Barré syndrome (25 [61%] patients). Patients with Guillain-Barré syndrome who had Zika and chikungunya dual infection had more aggressive disease, requiring intensive care support and longer hospital stays, than those with mono-infection (median 24 days [IQR 20–30] vs 17 days [10–20]; p=0·0028). Eight (17%) of 46 patients with Zika and chikungunya dual infection had a stroke or transient ischaemic attack, compared with five (6%) of 96 patients with Zika or chikungunya mono-infection (p=0·047). Interpretation: There is a wide and overlapping spectrum of neurological manifestations caused by Zika or chikungunya mono-infection and by dual infections. The possible increased risk of acute cerebrovascular disease in patients with dual infection merits further investigation. Funding: Fundação do Amparo a Ciência e Tecnologia de Pernambuco (FACEPE), EU's Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme, National Institute for Health Research. Translations: For the Portuguese and Spanish translations of the abstract see Supplementary Materials section

ZikaPLAN: addressing the knowledge gaps and working towards a research preparedness network in the Americas.

Zika Preparedness Latin American Network (ZikaPLAN) is a research consortium funded by the European Commission to address the research gaps in combating Zika and to establish a sustainable network with research capacity building in the Americas. Here we present a report on ZikaPLAN`s mid-term achievements since its initiation in October 2016 to June 2019, illustrating the research objectives of the 15 work packages ranging from virology, diagnostics, entomology and vector control, modelling to clinical cohort studies in pregnant women and neonates, as well as studies on the neurological complications of Zika infections in adolescents and adults. For example, the Neuroviruses Emerging in the Americas Study (NEAS) has set up more than 10 clinical sites in Colombia. Through the Butantan Phase 3 dengue vaccine trial, we have access to samples of 17,000 subjects in 14 different geographic locations in Brazil. To address the lack of access to clinical samples for diagnostic evaluation, ZikaPLAN set up a network of quality sites with access to well-characterized clinical specimens and capacity for independent evaluations. The International Committee for Congenital Anomaly Surveillance Tools was formed with global representation from regional networks conducting birth defects surveillance. We have collated a comprehensive inventory of resources and tools for birth defects surveillance, and developed an App for low resource regions facilitating the coding and description of all major externally visible congenital anomalies including congenital Zika syndrome. Research Capacity Network (REDe) is a shared and open resource centre where researchers and health workers can access tools, resources and support, enabling better and more research in the region. Addressing the gap in research capacity in LMICs is pivotal in ensuring broad-based systems to be prepared for the next outbreak. Our shared and open research space through REDe will be used to maximize the transfer of research into practice by summarizing the research output and by hosting the tools, resources, guidance and recommendations generated by these studies. Leveraging on the research from this consortium, we are working towards a research preparedness network

Geoeconomic variations in epidemiology, ventilation management, and outcomes in invasively ventilated intensive care unit patients without acute respiratory distress syndrome: a pooled analysis of four observational studies

Background: Geoeconomic variations in epidemiology, the practice of ventilation, and outcome in invasively ventilated intensive care unit (ICU) patients without acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS) remain unexplored. In this analysis we aim to address these gaps using individual patient data of four large observational studies. Methods: In this pooled analysis we harmonised individual patient data from the ERICC, LUNG SAFE, PRoVENT, and PRoVENT-iMiC prospective observational studies, which were conducted from June, 2011, to December, 2018, in 534 ICUs in 54 countries. We used the 2016 World Bank classification to define two geoeconomic regions: middle-income countries (MICs) and high-income countries (HICs). ARDS was defined according to the Berlin criteria. Descriptive statistics were used to compare patients in MICs versus HICs. The primary outcome was the use of low tidal volume ventilation (LTVV) for the first 3 days of mechanical ventilation. Secondary outcomes were key ventilation parameters (tidal volume size, positive end-expiratory pressure, fraction of inspired oxygen, peak pressure, plateau pressure, driving pressure, and respiratory rate), patient characteristics, the risk for and actual development of acute respiratory distress syndrome after the first day of ventilation, duration of ventilation, ICU length of stay, and ICU mortality. Findings: Of the 7608 patients included in the original studies, this analysis included 3852 patients without ARDS, of whom 2345 were from MICs and 1507 were from HICs. Patients in MICs were younger, shorter and with a slightly lower body-mass index, more often had diabetes and active cancer, but less often chronic obstructive pulmonary disease and heart failure than patients from HICs. Sequential organ failure assessment scores were similar in MICs and HICs. Use of LTVV in MICs and HICs was comparable (42\ub74% vs 44\ub72%; absolute difference \u20131\ub769 [\u20139\ub758 to 6\ub711] p=0\ub767; data available in 3174 [82%] of 3852 patients). The median applied positive end expiratory pressure was lower in MICs than in HICs (5 [IQR 5\u20138] vs 6 [5\u20138] cm H2O; p=0\ub70011). ICU mortality was higher in MICs than in HICs (30\ub75% vs 19\ub79%; p=0\ub70004; adjusted effect 16\ub741% [95% CI 9\ub752\u201323\ub752]; p<0\ub70001) and was inversely associated with gross domestic product (adjusted odds ratio for a US$10 000 increase per capita 0\ub780 [95% CI 0\ub775\u20130\ub786]; p<0\ub70001). Interpretation: Despite similar disease severity and ventilation management, ICU mortality in patients without ARDS is higher in MICs than in HICs, with a strong association with country-level economic status. Funding: No funding

Global burden of 288 causes of death and life expectancy decomposition in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations, 1990–2021: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

BACKGROUND Regular, detailed reporting on population health by underlying cause of death is fundamental for public health decision making. Cause-specific estimates of mortality and the subsequent effects on life expectancy worldwide are valuable metrics to gauge progress in reducing mortality rates. These estimates are particularly important following large-scale mortality spikes, such as the COVID-19 pandemic. When systematically analysed, mortality rates and life expectancy allow comparisons of the consequences of causes of death globally and over time, providing a nuanced understanding of the effect of these causes on global populations. METHODS The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021 cause-of-death analysis estimated mortality and years of life lost (YLLs) from 288 causes of death by age-sex-location-year in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations for each year from 1990 until 2021. The analysis used 56 604 data sources, including data from vital registration and verbal autopsy as well as surveys, censuses, surveillance systems, and cancer registries, among others. As with previous GBD rounds, cause-specific death rates for most causes were estimated using the Cause of Death Ensemble model-a modelling tool developed for GBD to assess the out-of-sample predictive validity of different statistical models and covariate permutations and combine those results to produce cause-specific mortality estimates-with alternative strategies adapted to model causes with insufficient data, substantial changes in reporting over the study period, or unusual epidemiology. YLLs were computed as the product of the number of deaths for each cause-age-sex-location-year and the standard life expectancy at each age. As part of the modelling process, uncertainty intervals (UIs) were generated using the 2·5th and 97·5th percentiles from a 1000-draw distribution for each metric. We decomposed life expectancy by cause of death, location, and year to show cause-specific effects on life expectancy from 1990 to 2021. We also used the coefficient of variation and the fraction of population affected by 90% of deaths to highlight concentrations of mortality. Findings are reported in counts and age-standardised rates. Methodological improvements for cause-of-death estimates in GBD 2021 include the expansion of under-5-years age group to include four new age groups, enhanced methods to account for stochastic variation of sparse data, and the inclusion of COVID-19 and other pandemic-related mortality-which includes excess mortality associated with the pandemic, excluding COVID-19, lower respiratory infections, measles, malaria, and pertussis. For this analysis, 199 new country-years of vital registration cause-of-death data, 5 country-years of surveillance data, 21 country-years of verbal autopsy data, and 94 country-years of other data types were added to those used in previous GBD rounds. FINDINGS The leading causes of age-standardised deaths globally were the same in 2019 as they were in 1990; in descending order, these were, ischaemic heart disease, stroke, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, and lower respiratory infections. In 2021, however, COVID-19 replaced stroke as the second-leading age-standardised cause of death, with 94·0 deaths (95% UI 89·2-100·0) per 100 000 population. The COVID-19 pandemic shifted the rankings of the leading five causes, lowering stroke to the third-leading and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease to the fourth-leading position. In 2021, the highest age-standardised death rates from COVID-19 occurred in sub-Saharan Africa (271·0 deaths [250·1-290·7] per 100 000 population) and Latin America and the Caribbean (195·4 deaths [182·1-211·4] per 100 000 population). The lowest age-standardised death rates from COVID-19 were in the high-income super-region (48·1 deaths [47·4-48·8] per 100 000 population) and southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania (23·2 deaths [16·3-37·2] per 100 000 population). Globally, life expectancy steadily improved between 1990 and 2019 for 18 of the 22 investigated causes. Decomposition of global and regional life expectancy showed the positive effect that reductions in deaths from enteric infections, lower respiratory infections, stroke, and neonatal deaths, among others have contributed to improved survival over the study period. However, a net reduction of 1·6 years occurred in global life expectancy between 2019 and 2021, primarily due to increased death rates from COVID-19 and other pandemic-related mortality. Life expectancy was highly variable between super-regions over the study period, with southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania gaining 8·3 years (6·7-9·9) overall, while having the smallest reduction in life expectancy due to COVID-19 (0·4 years). The largest reduction in life expectancy due to COVID-19 occurred in Latin America and the Caribbean (3·6 years). Additionally, 53 of the 288 causes of death were highly concentrated in locations with less than 50% of the global population as of 2021, and these causes of death became progressively more concentrated since 1990, when only 44 causes showed this pattern. The concentration phenomenon is discussed heuristically with respect to enteric and lower respiratory infections, malaria, HIV/AIDS, neonatal disorders, tuberculosis, and measles. INTERPRETATION Long-standing gains in life expectancy and reductions in many of the leading causes of death have been disrupted by the COVID-19 pandemic, the adverse effects of which were spread unevenly among populations. Despite the pandemic, there has been continued progress in combatting several notable causes of death, leading to improved global life expectancy over the study period. Each of the seven GBD super-regions showed an overall improvement from 1990 and 2021, obscuring the negative effect in the years of the pandemic. Additionally, our findings regarding regional variation in causes of death driving increases in life expectancy hold clear policy utility. Analyses of shifting mortality trends reveal that several causes, once widespread globally, are now increasingly concentrated geographically. These changes in mortality concentration, alongside further investigation of changing risks, interventions, and relevant policy, present an important opportunity to deepen our understanding of mortality-reduction strategies. Examining patterns in mortality concentration might reveal areas where successful public health interventions have been implemented. Translating these successes to locations where certain causes of death remain entrenched can inform policies that work to improve life expectancy for people everywhere. FUNDING Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation

A BALB/c mouse model shows that liver involvement in dengue disease is immune-mediated

In the present study, BALB/c mice were used to develop a model for the hepatic injury associated to dengue infection. Histological analysis after subcutaneous inoculation with a low viral dose of dengue-2 virus showed Kupffer cell hyperplasia and an increased inflammatory cellular infiltrate next to the bile ducts on days 5, 7 and 14 post-inoculation, mainly characterized by the presence of mononuclear cells. The liver mRNA transcription level of IL-1 beta was highest on the 5th day post-infection (p.i.) and decreased by the 21st day, TNF-alpha showed a peak of mRNA transcription after 14 days p.i. coinciding with the regression of cellular infiltrates and elevated expression of TGF-beta mRNA. Serum AST and ALT levels were slightly elevated at 7 and 14 days post-infection. Dengue-2 RNA levels were undetectable in the liver on any of the days following inoculation. Our observations suggest that, as it is true for humans, the animals undergo a transient and slight liver inflammation, probably due to local cytokine production and cellular infiltration in the liver. (C) 2010 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved

A Review on Chikungunya Virus Epidemiology, Pathogenesis and Current Vaccine Development

Chikungunya virus (CHIKV) is a mosquito-borne alphavirus that recently re-emerged in many parts of the world causing large-scale outbreaks. CHIKV infection presents as a febrile illness known as chikungunya fever (CHIKF). Infection is self-limited and characterized mainly by severe joint pain and myalgia that can last for weeks or months; however, severe disease presentation can also occur in a minor proportion of infections. Among the atypical CHIKV manifestations that have been described, severe arthralgia and neurological complications, such as encephalitis, meningitis, and Guillain–Barré Syndrome, are now reported in many outbreaks. Moreover, death cases were also reported, placing CHIKV as a relevant public health disease. Virus evolution, globalization, and climate change may have contributed to CHIKV spread. In addition to this, the lack of preventive vaccines and approved antiviral treatments is turning CHIKV into a major global health threat. In this review, we discuss the current knowledge about CHIKV pathogenesis, with a focus on atypical disease manifestations, such as persistent arthralgia and neurologic disease presentation. We also bring an up-to-date review of the current CHIKV vaccine development. Altogether, these topics highlight some of the most recent advances in our understanding of CHIKV pathogenesis and also provide important insights into the current development and clinical trials of CHIKV potential vaccine candidates

HIV Protease Inhibitors Apoptotic Effect in SH-SY5Y Neuronal Cell Line

Background: Prophylactic treatment regimens to prevent mother-to-child HIV transmission include protease inhibitors Lopinavir and Ritonavir. Lopinavir and Ritonavir have been reported to be able to induce intracellular oxidative stress in diverse cellular models, however scarce informations are available about protease inhibitor effects of in the central nervous system (CNS). In our study we evaluated the impact of protease inhibitors on a cell neuronal model. Methods: We treated a neuroblastoma cell line (SH-SY5Y) with increasing doses of Lopinavir and Ritonavir (0.1-1-10-25-50 µM), used alone or in combination, evaluating the impact of these drugs in terms of mitochondrial activity, with MTT cell proliferation assay; mRNA expression of heme oxygenase (HemeOH) and reactive oxygen species (ROS) levels with 2',7'-dichlorofluorescin diacetate (H2DCFDA) in order to assess oxidative stress; apoptotic cell death with flow cytometry. Results: We observed that Lopinavir and Ritonavir treatment, at 25 and/or 50 µM concentrations, induced mitochondrial damage, increase of heme oxygenase RNA expression levels and ROS generation, followed by apoptosis in SH-SY5Y. Conclusions: Our in vitro model demonstrates a damaging effect of HIV protease inhibitors on the neuroblastoma cell line, thus partially mimicking the impact of these drugs on the CNS of children born to HIV positive mothers undergone to antiretroviral treatment