Influence of future air pollution mitigation strategies on total aerosol radiative forcing

We apply different aerosol and aerosol precursor emission scenarios reflecting possible future control strategies for air pollution in the ECHAM5-HAM model, and simulate the resulting effect on the Earth's radiation budget. We use two opposing future mitigation strategies for the year 2030: one in which emission reduction legislation decided in countries throughout the world are effectively implemented (current legislation; CLE 2030) and one in which all technical options for emission reductions are being implemented independent of their cost (maximum feasible reduction; MFR 2030). We consider the direct, semi-direct and indirect radiative effects of aerosols. The total anthropogenic aerosol radiative forcing defined as the difference in the top-of-the-atmosphere radiation between 2000 and pre-industrial times amounts to -2.00 W/m2. In the future this negative global annual mean aerosol radiative forcing will only slightly change (+0.02 W/m2) under the "current legislation" scenario. Regionally, the effects are much larger: e.g. over Eastern Europe radiative forcing would increase by +1.50 W/m2 because of successful aerosol reduction policies, whereas over South Asia it would decrease by -1.10 W/m2 because of further growth of emissions. A "maximum feasible reduction" of aerosols and their precursors would lead to an increase of the global annual mean aerosol radiative forcing by +1.13 W/m2. Hence, in the latter case, the present day negative anthropogenic aerosol forcing could be more than halved by 2030 because of aerosol reduction policies and climate change thereafter will be to a larger extent be controlled by greenhouse gas emissions. We combined these two opposing future mitigation strategies for a number of experiments focusing on different sectors and regions. In addition, we performed sensitivity studies to estimate the importance of future changes in oxidant concentrations and the importance of the aerosol microphysical coupling within the range of expected future changes. For changes in oxidant concentrations caused by future air pollution mitigation, we do not find a significant effect for the global annual mean radiative aerosol forcing. In the extreme case of only abating SO2 or carbonaceous emissions to a maximum feasible extent, we find deviations from additivity for the radiative forcing over anthropogenic source regions up to 10% compared to an experiment abating both at the same time

Expression of the Inhibitory CD200 Receptor Is Associated with Alternative Macrophage Activation

Classical macrophage activation is inhibited by the CD200 receptor (CD200R). Here, we show that CD200R expression was specifically induced on human in vitro polarized macrophages of the alternatively activated M2a subtype, generated by incubation with IL-4 or IL-13. In mice, peritoneal M2 macrophages, elicited during infection with the parasites Taenia crassiceps or Tryponosoma brucei brucei, expressed increased CD200R levels compared to those derived from uninfected mice. However, in vitro stimulation of mouse peritoneal macrophages and T crassiceps infection in IL-4-/- and IL-4R-/- mice showed that, in contrast to humans, induction of CD200R in mice was not IL-4 or IL-13 dependent. Our data identify CD200R as a suitable marker for alternatively activated macrophages in humans and corroborate observations of distinct species- and/or site-specific mechanisms regulating macrophage polarization in mouse and man. Copyright (C) 2009 S. Karger AG, Base

Use of the FAO AquaCrop model in developing sowing guidelines for rainfed maize in Zimbabwe

This paper presents a procedure in which the water-driven water productivity model AquaCrop was fine-tuned and validated for maize for the local conditions in Zimbabwe and then applied to develop sowing management options for decision support. Data from experiments of 2 seasons in Harare and from 5 other sites around Zimbabwe were used for the local calibration and validation of AquaCrop. Model parameters such as the reference harvest index (HIo); the canopy growth coefficient (CGC); early canopy decline and normalised biomass water productivity (WPb*) were adjusted during model calibration. Model performance was satisfactory after calibration with a Nash-Sutcliffe model efficiency parameter (EF = 0.81), RMSE = 15% and R2 = 0.86 upon validation. To develop sowing guidelines, historical climate series from 13 meteorological stations around Zimbabwe were used to simulate maize yield for 6 consecutive sowing dates determined according to criteria applicable in Zimbabwe. Three varieties and typical shallow and deep soil types were considered in the simulation scenarios. The simulated yield was analysed by an optimisation procedure to select the optimum sowing time that maximised long-term mean yield. Results showed that highest yields depended on the climate of the site (rainfall availability), variety (length of growing cycle) and soil depth (soil water storage capacity). The late variety gave higher mean yields for all sowing dates in the maize belt. Staggered sowing is recommended as a way of combating the effects of rainfall variability and as an answer to labour constraints.Keywords: biomass water productivity, AquaCrop, maize sowing dates, crop modellin

Spatial patterns of carbon, biodiversity, deforestation threat, and REDD+ projects in Indonesia

There are concerns that Reduced Emissions from Deforestation and forest Degradation (REDD+) may fail to deliver potential biodiversity cobenefits if it is focused on high carbon areas. We explored the spatial overlaps between carbon stocks, biodiversity, projected deforestation threats, and the location of REDD+ projects in Indonesia, a tropical country at the forefront of REDD+ development. For biodiversity, we assembled data on the distribution of terrestrial vertebrates (ranges of amphibians, mammals, birds, reptiles) and plants (species distribution models for 8 families). We then investigated congruence between different measures of biodiversity richness and carbon stocks at the national and subnational scales. Finally, we mapped active REDD+ projects and investigated the carbon density and potential biodiversity richness and modeled deforestation pressures within these forests relative to protected areas and unprotected forests. There was little internal overlap among the different hotspots (richest 10% of cells) of species richness. There was also no consistent spatial congruence between carbon stocks and the biodiversity measures: a weak negative correlation at the national scale masked highly variable and nonlinear relationships island by island. Current REDD+ projects were preferentially located in areas with higher total species richness and threatened species richness but lower carbon densities than protected areas and unprotected forests. Although a quarter of the total area of these REDD+ projects is under relatively high deforestation pressure, the majority of the REDD+ area is not. In Indonesia at least, first-generation REDD+ projects are located where they are likely to deliver biodiversity benefits. However, if REDD+ is to deliver additional gains for climate and biodiversity, projects will need to focus on forests with the highest threat to deforestation, which will have cost implications for future REDD+ implementation

Physical aerosol properties and their relation to air mass origin at Monte Cimone (Italy) during the first MINATROC campaign

Aerosol physical properties were measured at the Monte Cimone Observatory (Italy) from 1 June till 6 July 2000. The measurement site is located in the transition zone between the continental boundary layer and the free troposphere (FT), at the border between the Mediterranean area and Central Europe, and is exposed to a variety of air masses. Sub-&mu;m number size distributions, aerosol hygroscopicity near 90% RH, refractory size distribution at 270&deg;C and equivalent black carbon mass were continuously measured. Number size distributions and hygroscopic properties indicate that the site is exposed to aged continental air masses, however during daytime it is also affected by upslope winds. The mixing of this transported polluted boundary layer air masses with relatively clean FT air leads to frequent nucleation events around local noon. <P style='line-height: 20px;'> Night-time size distributions, including fine and coarse fractions for each air mass episode, have been parameterized by a 3-modal lognormal distribution. Number and volume concentrations in the sub-&mu;m modes are strongly affected by the air mass origin, with highest levels in NW-European air masses, versus very clean, free tropospheric air coming from the N-European sector. During a brief but distinct dust episode, the coarse mode is clearly enhanced. <P style='line-height: 20px;'> The observed hygroscopic behavior of the aerosol is consistent with the chemical composition described by Putaud et al.&nbsp;(2004), but no closure between known chemical composition and measured hygroscopicity could be made because the hygroscopic properties of the water-soluble organic matter (WSOM) are not known. The data suggest that WSOM is slightly-to-moderately hygroscopic (hygroscopic growth factor GF at 90% relative humidity between 1.05 and 1.51), and that this property may well depend on the air mass origin and history. <P style='line-height: 20px;'> External mixing of aerosol particles is observed in all air masses through the occurrence of two hygroscopicity modes (average GF of 1.22 and 1.37, respectively). However, the presence of 'less' hygroscopic particles has mostly such a low occurrence rate that the average growth factor distribution for each air mass sector actually appears as a single mode. This is not the case for the dust episode, where the external mixing between less hygroscopic and more hygroscopic particles is very prominent, and indicating clearly the occurrence of a dust accumulation mode, extending down to 50 nm particles, along with an anthropogenic pollution mode. <P style='line-height: 20px;'> The presented physical measurements finally allow us to provide a partitioning of the sub-&mu;m aerosol in four non-overlapping fractions (soluble/volatile, non-soluble/volatile, refractory/non-black carbon, black carbon) which can be associated with separate groups of chemical compounds determined with chemical-analytical techniques (ions, non-water soluble organic matter, dust, elemental carbon). All air masses except the free-tropospheric N-European and Dust episodes show a similar composition within the uncertainty of the data (53%, 37%, 5% and 5% respectively for the four defined fractions). Compared to these sectors, the dust episode shows a clearly enhanced refractory-non-BC fraction (17%), attributed to dust in the accumulation mode, whereas for the very clean N-EUR sector, the total refractory fraction is 25%, of which 13% non-BC and 12% BC

Case study on the identification and classification of small-scale flow patterns in flaring active region

We propose a novel methodology to identity flows in the solar atmosphere and classify their velocities as either supersonic, subsonic, or sonic. The proposed methodology consists of three parts. First, an algorithm is applied to the Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO) image data to locate and track flows, resulting in the trajectory of each flow over time. Thereafter, the differential emission measure inversion method is applied to six AIA channels along the trajectory of each flow in order to estimate its background temperature and sound speed. Finally, we classify each flow as supersonic, subsonic, or sonic by performing simultaneous hypothesis tests on whether the velocity bounds of the flow are larger, smaller, or equal to the background sound speed. The proposed methodology was applied to the SDO image data from the 171 {\AA} spectral line for the date 6 March 2012 from 12:22:00 to 12:35:00 and again for the date 9 March 2012 from 03:00:00 to 03:24:00. Eighteen plasma flows were detected, 11 of which were classified as supersonic, 3 as subsonic, and 3 as sonic at a $70\%$ level of significance. Out of all these cases, 2 flows cannot be strictly ascribed to one of the respective categories as they change from the subsonic state to supersonic and vice versa. We labelled them as a subclass of transonic flows. The proposed methodology provides an automatic and scalable solution to identify small-scale flows and to classify their velocities as either supersonic, subsonic, or sonic. We identified and classified small-scale flow patterns in flaring loops. The results show that the flows can be classified into four classes: sub-, super-, trans-sonic, and sonic. The detected flows from AIA images can be analyzed in combination with the other high-resolution observational data, such as Hi-C 2.1 data, and be used for the development of theories of the formation of flow patterns.Comment: 13 pages, 7 figures, Accepted for publication in A&

Treatment effects in Forensic Psychiatric Centre de Rooyse Wissel

Deze studie is gericht op de verandering in dynamische risicofactoren bij forensisch psychiatrische patiënten

Back-translation for discovering distant protein homologies

Frameshift mutations in protein-coding DNA sequences produce a drastic change in the resulting protein sequence, which prevents classic protein alignment methods from revealing the proteins' common origin. Moreover, when a large number of substitutions are additionally involved in the divergence, the homology detection becomes difficult even at the DNA level. To cope with this situation, we propose a novel method to infer distant homology relations of two proteins, that accounts for frameshift and point mutations that may have affected the coding sequences. We design a dynamic programming alignment algorithm over memory-efficient graph representations of the complete set of putative DNA sequences of each protein, with the goal of determining the two putative DNA sequences which have the best scoring alignment under a powerful scoring system designed to reflect the most probable evolutionary process. This allows us to uncover evolutionary information that is not captured by traditional alignment methods, which is confirmed by biologically significant examples.Comment: The 9th International Workshop in Algorithms in Bioinformatics (WABI), Philadelphia : \'Etats-Unis d'Am\'erique (2009

Benchmarking microbiome transformations favors experimental quantitative approaches to address compositionality and sampling depth biases

While metagenomic sequencing has become the tool of preference to study host-associated microbial communities, downstream analyses and clinical interpretation of microbiome data remains challenging due to the sparsity and compositionality of sequence matrices. Here, we evaluate both computational and experimental approaches proposed to mitigate the impact of these outstanding issues. Generating fecal metagenomes drawn from simulated microbial communities, we benchmark the performance of thirteen commonly used analytical approaches in terms of diversity estimation, identification of taxon-taxon associations, and assessment of taxon-metadata correlations under the challenge of varying microbial ecosystem loads. We find quantitative approaches including experimental procedures to incorporate microbial load variation in downstream analyses to perform significantly better than computational strategies designed to mitigate data compositionality and sparsity, not only improving the identification of true positive associations, but also reducing false positive detection. When analyzing simulated scenarios of low microbial load dysbiosis as observed in inflammatory pathologies, quantitative methods correcting for sampling depth show higher precision compared to uncorrected scaling. Overall, our findings advocate for a wider adoption of experimental quantitative approaches in microbiome research, yet also suggest preferred transformations for specific cases where determination of microbial load of samples is not feasible