Machine learning for targeted display advertising: Transfer learning in action

This paper presents a detailed discussion of problem formulation and data representation issues in the design, deployment, and operation of a massive-scale machine learning system for targeted display advertising. Notably, the machine learning system itself is deployed and has been in continual use for years, for thousands of advertising campaigns (in contrast to simply having the models from the system be deployed). In this application, acquiring sufficient data for training from the ideal sampling distribution is prohibitively expensive. Instead, data are drawn from surrogate domains and learning tasks, and then transferred to the target task. We present the design of this multistage transfer learning system, highlighting the problem formulation aspects. We then present a detailed experimental evaluation, showing that the different transfer stages indeed each add value. We next present production results across a variety of advertising clients from a variety of industries, illustrating the performance of the system in use. We close the paper with a collection of lessons learned from the work over half a decade on this complex, deployed, and broadly used machine learning system.Statistics Working Papers Serie

Grain Elevators of South Dakota and Associated Farm Supply Businesses: Some Factors Affecting Their Growth and Future Prospects

The purpose of this study is to explore some of the characteristics of the South Dakota grain elevator and farm supply industry and to identify factors affecting the growth or survival of an elevator. It is possible by utilizing known economies of volume through their marketing systems, South Dakota producers could realize a savings of at least $19 million annually

Spontaneous Variability and Circadian Distribution of Ectopic Activity in Patients With Malignant Ventricular Arrhythmia

Day to day variability of ventricular ectopic activity was analyzed in 45 patients with a history of malignant ventricular tachyarrhythmias who underwent two successive 24 h periods of ambulatory electrocardiographic (ECG) monitoring in the absence of antiarrhythmic drugs; 26 were male and 19 female, with a mean age of 56 years (range 15 to 76). The total number of single ventricular premature beats, couplets and ventricular tachycardia beats and runs on days 1 and 2 demonstrated a consistent overall correlation (r = 0.76 to 0.84). Individual variability was evaluated by regression analysis with determination of 95% confidence limits.The minimal decrease in arrhythmia density necessary to distinguish true drug effect from spontaneous variability was 64% for single ventricular premature beats, 83% for couplets, 90% for ventricular tachycardia runs and 93% for ventricular tachycardia beats. To meet the criteria for arrhythmia aggravation, the arrhythmia density had to increase by 400, 877, 1,500 and 2,400%, respectively. Multivariate analysis disclosed an inverse relation between day to day arrhythmia variability and baseline arrhythmia density and age. Variability was more pronounced in patients with coronary artery disease but was not influenced by the type of presenting arrhythmia or left ventricular function.The diurnal distribution of arrhythmias and heart rate followed a distinct circadian pattern. These data indicate that, despite good group reproducibility, spontaneous arrhythmia variability in individuals is substantial, necessitating standards to define both drug effect and arrhythmia aggravation

Breakdown of the Isobaric Multiplet Mass Equation for the A = 20 and 21 Multiplets

Using the Penning trap mass spectrometer TITAN, we performed the first direct mass measurements of 20,21Mg, isotopes that are the most proton-rich members of the A = 20 and A = 21 isospin multiplets. These measurements were possible through the use of a unique ion-guide laser ion source, a development that suppressed isobaric contamination by six orders of magnitude. Compared to the latest atomic mass evaluation, we find that the mass of 21Mg is in good agreement but that the mass of 20Mg deviates by 3{\sigma}. These measurements reduce the uncertainties in the masses of 20,21Mg by 15 and 22 times, respectively, resulting in a significant departure from the expected behavior of the isobaric multiplet mass equation in both the A = 20 and A = 21 multiplets. This presents a challenge to shell model calculations using either the isospin non-conserving USDA/B Hamiltonians or isospin non-conserving interactions based on chiral two- and three-nucleon forces.Comment: 5 pages, 2 figure

Lipocalin 2 expression is associated with aggressive features of endometrial cancer

Background: Increased expression of lipocalin 2 (LCN2) has been observed in several cancers. The aim of the present study was to investigate LCN2 in endometrial cancer in relation to clinico-pathologic phenotype, angiogenesis, markers of epithelial-mesenchymal transition (EMT), and patient survival. Methods: Immunohistochemical staining was performed using a human LCN2 antibody on a population-based series of endometrial cancer patients collected in Hordaland County (Norway) during 1981-1990 (n = 256). Patients were followed from the time of primary surgery until death or last follow-up in 2007. The median follow-up time for survivors was 17 years. Gene expression data from a prospectively collected endometrial cancer series (n = 76) and a publicly available endometrial cancer series (n = 111) was used for gene correlation studies. Results: Expression of LCN2 protein, found in 49% of the cases, was associated with non-endometrioid histologic type (p = 0.001), nuclear grade 3 (p = 0.001), >50% solid tumor growth (p = 0.001), ER and PR negativity (p = 0.028 and 0.006), and positive EZH2 expression (p < 0.001). LCN2 expression was significantly associated with expression of VEGF-A (p = 0.021), although not with other angiogenesis markers examined (vascular proliferation index, glomeruloid microvascular proliferation, VEGF-C, VEGF-D or bFGF2 expression). Further, LCN2 was not associated with several EMT-related markers (E-cadherin, N-cadherin, P-cadherin, β-catenin), nor with vascular invasion (tumor cells invading lymphatic or blood vessels). Notably, LCN2 was significantly associated with distant tumor recurrences, as well as with the S100A family of metastasis related genes. Patients with tumors showing no LCN2 expression had the best outcome with 81% 5-year survival, compared to 73% for intermediate and 38% for the small subgroup with strong LCN2 staining (p = 0.007). In multivariate analysis, LCN2 expression was an independent prognostic factor in addition to histologic grade and FIGO stage. Conclusion: Increased LCN2 expression is associated with aggressive features and poor prognosis in endometrial cancer

Precision mass measurements of magnesium isotopes and implications on the validity of the Isobaric Mass Multiplet Equation

If the mass excess of neutron-deficient nuclei and their neutron-rich mirror partners are both known, it can be shown that deviations of the Isobaric Mass Multiplet Equation (IMME) in the form of a cubic term can be probed. Such a cubic term was probed by using the atomic mass of neutron-rich magnesium isotopes measured using the TITAN Penning trap and the recently measured proton-separation energies of $^{29}$Cl and $^{30}$Ar. The atomic mass of $^{27}$Mg was found to be within 1.6$\sigma$ of the value stated in the Atomic Mass Evaluation. The atomic masses of $^{28,29}$Mg were measured to be both within 1$\sigma$, while being 8 and 34 times more precise, respectively. Using the $^{29}$Mg mass excess and previous measurements of $^{29}$Cl we uncovered a cubic coefficient of $d$ = 28(7) keV, which is the largest known cubic coefficient of the IMME. This departure, however, could also be caused by experimental data with unknown systematic errors. Hence there is a need to confirm the mass excess of $^{28}$S and the one-neutron separation energy of $^{29}$Cl, which have both come from a single measurement. Finally, our results were compared to ab initio calculations from the valence-space in-medium similarity renormalization group, resulting in a good agreement.Comment: 7 pages, 3 figure

Storm time polar cap expansion: interplanetary magnetic field clock angle dependence

It is well known that the polar cap, delineated by the open–closed field line boundary (OCB), responds to changes in the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF). In general, the boundary moves equatorward when the IMF turns southward and contracts poleward when the IMF turns northward. However, observations of the OCB are spotty and limited in local time, making more detailed studies of its IMF dependence difficult. Here, we simulate five solar storm periods with the coupled model consisting of the Open Geospace General Circulation Model (OpenGGCM) coupled with the Coupled Thermosphere Ionosphere Model (CTIM) and the Rice Convection Model (RCM), i.e., the OpenGGCM-CTIM-RCM, to estimate the location and dynamics of the OCB. For these events, polar cap boundary location observations are also obtained from Defense Meteorological Satellite Program (DMSP) precipitation spectrograms and compared with the model output. There is a large scatter in the DMSP observations and in the model output. Although the model does not predict the OCB with high fidelity for every observation, it does reproduce the general trend as a function of IMF clock angle. On average, the model overestimates the latitude of the open–closed field line boundary by 1.61∘. Additional analysis of the simulated polar cap boundary dynamics across all local times shows that the MLT of the largest polar cap expansion closely correlates with the IMF clock angle, that the strongest correlation occurs when the IMF is southward, that during strong southward IMF the polar cap shifts sunward, and that the polar cap rapidly contracts at all local times when the IMF turns northward.</p

Toward a chemical reanalysis in a coupled chemistry-climate model: an evaluation of MOPITT CO assimilation and its impact on tropospheric composition

We examine in detail a 1 year global reanalysis of carbon monoxide (CO) that is based on joint assimilation of conventional meteorological observations and Measurement of Pollution in The Troposphere (MOPITT) multispectral CO retrievals in the Community Earth System Model (CESM). Our focus is to assess the impact to the chemical system when CO distribution is constrained in a coupled full chemistry-climate model like CESM. To do this, we first evaluate the joint reanalysis (MOPITT Reanalysis) against four sets of independent observations and compare its performance against a reanalysis with no MOPITT assimilation (Control Run). We then investigate the CO burden and chemical response with the aid of tagged sectoral CO tracers. We estimate the total tropospheric CO burden in 2002 (from ensemble mean and spread) to be 371 ± 12% Tg for MOPITT Reanalysis and 291 ± 9% Tg for Control Run. Our multispecies analysis of this difference suggests that (a) direct emissions of CO and hydrocarbons are too low in the inventory used in this study and (b) chemical oxidation, transport, and deposition processes are not accurately and consistently represented in the model. Increases in CO led to net reduction of OH and subsequent longer lifetime of CH4 (Control Run: 8.7 years versus MOPITT Reanalysis: 9.3 years). Yet at the same time, this increase led to 5-10% enhancement of Northern Hemisphere O3 and overall photochemical activity via HOx recycling. Such nonlinear effects further complicate the attribution to uncertainties in direct emissions alone. This has implications to chemistry-climate modeling and inversion studies of longer-lived species

The effect of diamagnetic drift on motion of the dayside magnetopause reconnection line

Magnetic reconnection at the magnetopause occurs with a large density asymmetry and for a large range of magnetic shears. In these conditions, a motion of the X line has been predicted in the direction of the electron diamagnetic drift. When this motion is super Alfvenic, reconnection should be suppressed. We analysed a large data set of Double Star TC-1 dayside magnetopause crossings, which includes reconnection and nonreconnection events. Moreover, it also includes several events during which TC-1 is near the X line. With these close events, we verified the diamagnetic suppression condition with local observations near the X line. Moreover, with the same close events, we also studied the motion of the X line along the magnetopause. It is found that, when reconnection is not suppressed, the X line moves northward or southward according to the orientation of the guide field, which is related to the interplanetary magnetic field BY component, in agreement with the diamagnetic drift