Supernova Cosmology And How To Talk About It: New Approaches To Cosmological Parameter Inference With Type Ia Supernovae And An Assessment Of The Education And Public Outreach Program Of The Dark Energy Survey

The discovery of the accelerating expansion of the Universe launched a new chapter in modern cosmology. Evidence for this accelerating expansion was first observed using Type Ia supernovae, which are brilliant, standardizable explosions that can be detected at large distances and used to infer cosmological parameters. New surveys are being designed to detect thousands of Type Ia supernovae, ushering in an era where parameter inference is no longer limited by statistics, but by systematic uncertainties. One of these systematics which is not well understood is the progenitor and progenitor environment, which can be investigated by studying properties of the supernova host galaxy. In this dissertation, I use the three-year sample of photometrically-classified and spectroscopically-confirmed Type Ia supernovae from Sloan Digital Sky Survey-II Supernova Survey to explore correlations between supernova luminosity and host-galaxy mass, metallicity, and star-formation rate. Observations suggest that such correlations should be incorporated to improve the standardization of Type Ia supernova luminosities. As such, new techniques for parameter inference will need to accommodate increasingly large samples of supernovae and a variety of standardization models. In this dissertation, I also introduce the BAyesian hierarchical Modeling with BIased Simulations (BAMBIS) algorithm, a novel approach to parameter inference using Type Ia supernovae which can, in principle, include systematics such as host-galaxy correlations in a robust statistical framework. In addition to offering new scientific research opportunities, the quest to understand the evolution of the cosmos brings excellent opportunities for astronomers to engage in science education and public outreach (EPO). I present an analysis of the Dark Energy Survey EPO program, a unique large-scale astronomy EPO initiative organized and led entirely by professional astronomers. In this analysis, I detail the development of the EPO program as well as analyze the strengths and weaknesses of a subset of specific initiatives. I also discuss scientists\u27 reported methods of communicating science with the public

The level and duration of RSV-specific maternal IgG in infants in Kilifi Kenya

Background Respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) is the major cause of lower respiratory tract infection in infants. The rate of decay of RSV-specific maternal antibodies (RSV-matAb), the factors affecting cord blood levels, and the relationship between these levels and protection from infection are poorly defined. Methods A birth cohort (n = 635) in rural Kenya, was studied intensively to monitor infections and describe age-related serological characteristics. RSV specific IgG antibody (Ab) in serum was measured by the enzyme linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA) in cord blood, consecutive samples taken 3 monthly, and in paired acute and convalescent samples. A linear regression model was used to calculate the rate of RSV-matAb decline. The effect of risk factors on cord blood titres was investigated. Results The half-life of matAb in the Kenyan cohort was calculated to be 79 days (95% confidence limits (CL): 76–81 days). Ninety seven percent of infants were born with RSV-matAb. Infants who subsequently experienced an infection in early life had significantly lower cord titres of anti-RSV Ab in comparison to infants who did not have any incident infection in the first 6 months (P = 0.011). RSV infections were shown to have no effect on the rate of decay of RSV-matAb. Conclusion Maternal-specific RSV Ab decline rapidly following birth. However, we provide evidence of protection against severe disease by RSV-matAb during the first 6–7 months. This suggests that boosting maternal-specific Ab by RSV vaccination may be a useful strategy to consider

Influenza surveillance among children with pneumonia admitted to a district hospital in coastal Kenya, 2007-2010

Background: Influenza data gaps in sub-Saharan Africa include incidence, case fatality, seasonal patterns, and associations with prevalent disorders. Methods: Nasopharyngeal samples from children aged <12 years who were admitted to Kilifi District Hospital during 2007–2010 with severe or very severe pneumonia and resided in the local demographic surveillance system were screened for influenza A, B, and C viruses by molecular methods. Outpatient children provided comparative data. Results: Of 2002 admissions, influenza A virus infection was diagnosed in 3.5% (71), influenza B virus infection, in 0.9% (19); and influenza C virus infection, in 0.8% (11 of 1404 tested). Four patients with influenza died. Among outpatients, 13 of 331 (3.9%) with acute respiratory infection and 1 of 196 without acute respiratory infection were influenza positive. The annual incidence of severe or very severe pneumonia, of influenza (any type), and of influenza A, was 1321, 60, and 43 cases per 100 000 <5 years of age, respectively. Peak occurrence was in quarters 3–4 each year, and approximately 50% of cases involved infants: temporal association with bacteremia was absent. Hypoxia was more frequent among pneumonia cases involving influenza (odds ratio, 1.78; 95% confidence interval, 1.04–1.96). Influenza A virus subtypes were seasonal H3N2 (57%), seasonal H1N1 (12%), and 2009 pandemic H1N1 (7%). Conclusions: The burden of influenza was small during 2007–2010 in this pediatric hospital in Kenya. Influenza A virus subtype H3N2 predominated, and 2009 pandemic influenza A virus subtype H1N1 had little impact

Understanding childhood asthma in focus groups: perspectives from mothers of different ethnic backgrounds

BACKGROUND: Diagnosing childhood asthma is dependent upon parental symptom reporting but there are problems in the use of words and terms. The purpose of this study was to describe and compare understandings of childhood 'asthma' by mothers from three different ethnic backgrounds who have no personal experience of diagnosing asthma. A better understanding of parents' perceptions of an illness by clinicians should improve communication and management of the illness. METHOD: Sixty-six mothers living in east London describing their ethnic backgrounds as Bangladeshi, white English and black Caribbean were recruited to 9 focus groups. Discussion was semi-structured. Three sessions were conducted with each ethnic group. Mothers were shown a video clip of a boy with audible wheeze and cough and then addressed 6 questions. Sessions were recorded and transcribed verbatim. Responses were compared within and between ethnic groups. RESULTS: Each session, and ethnic group overall, developed a particular orientation to the discussion. Some mothers described the problem using single signs, while others imitated the sound or made comparisons to other illnesses. Hereditary factors were recognised by some, although all groups were concerned with environmental triggers. Responses about what to do included 'normal illness' strategies, use of health services and calls for complementary treatment. All groups were concerned about using medication every day. Expectations about the quality of life were varied, with recognition that restrictions may be based on parental beliefs about asthma, rather than asthma itself. CONCLUSION: Information from these focus groups suggests mothers know a great deal about childhood asthma even though they have no personal experience of it. Knowledge of how mothers from these ethnic backgrounds perceive asthma may facilitate doctor – patient communication with parents of children experiencing breathing difficulties

A large population sample of African HIV genomes from the 1980s reveals a reduction in subtype D over time associated with propensity for CXCR4 tropism

We present 109 near full-length HIV genomes amplified from blood serum samples obtained during early 1986 from across Uganda, which to our knowledge is the earliest and largest population sample from the initial phase of the HIV epidemic in Africa. Consensus sequences were made from paired-end Illumina reads with a target-capture approach to amplify HIV material following poor success with standard approaches. In comparisons with a smaller 'intermediate' genome dataset from 1998 to 1999 and a 'modern' genome dataset from 2007 to 2016, the proportion of subtype D was significantly higher initially, dropping from 67% (73/109), to 57% (26/46) to 17% (82/465) respectively (p < 0.0001). Subtype D has previously been shown to have a faster rate of disease progression than other subtypes in East African population studies, and to have a higher propensity to use the CXCR4 co-receptor ("X4 tropism"); associated with a decrease in time to AIDS. Here we find significant differences in predicted tropism between A1 and D subtypes in all three sample periods considered, which is particularly striking the 1986 sample: 66% (53/80) of subtype D env sequences were predicted to be X4 tropic compared with none of the 24 subtype A1. We also analysed the frequency of subtype in the envelope region of inter-subtype recombinants, and found that subtype A1 is over-represented in env, suggesting recombination and selection have acted to remove subtype D env from circulation. The reduction of subtype D frequency over three decades therefore appears to be a result of selective pressure against X4 tropism and its higher virulence. Lastly, we find a subtype D specific codon deletion at position 24 of the V3 loop, which may explain the higher propensity for subtype D to utilise X4 tropism

Modeling sustainability : Population, inequality, consumption, and bidirectional coupling of the Earth and human systems

Over the last two centuries, the impact of the Human System has grown dramatically, becoming strongly dominant within the Earth System in many different ways. Consumption, inequality, and population have increased extremely fast, especially since about 1950, threatening to overwhelm the many critical functions and ecosystems of the Earth System. Changes in the Earth System, in turn, have important feedback effects on the Human System, with costly and potentially serious consequences. However, current models do not incorporate these critical feedbacks. We argue that in order to understand the dynamics of either system, Earth SystemModels must be coupled with Human SystemModels through bidirectional couplings representing the positive, negative, and delayed feedbacks that exist in the real systems. In particular, key Human System variables, such as demographics, inequality, economic growth, and migration, are not coupled with the Earth System but are instead driven by exogenous estimates, such as United Nations population projections.This makes current models likely to miss important feedbacks in the real Earth-Human system, especially those that may result in unexpected or counterintuitive outcomes, and thus requiring different policy interventions from current models.The importance and imminence of sustainability challenges, the dominant role of the Human System in the Earth System, and the essential roles the Earth System plays for the Human System, all call for collaboration of natural scientists, social scientists, and engineers in multidisciplinary research and modeling to develop coupled Earth-Human system models for devising effective science-based policies and measures to benefit current and future generations

Genetic Variability of Human Respiratory Syncytial Virus A Strains Circulating in Ontario: A Novel Genotype with a 72 Nucleotide G Gene Duplication

Human respiratory syncytial virus (HRSV) is the main cause of acute lower respiratory infections in children under 2 years of age and causes repeated infections throughout life. We investigated the genetic variability of RSV-A circulating in Ontario during 2010–2011 winter season by sequencing and phylogenetic analysis of the G glycoprotein gene

Designing high-quality implementation research: development, application, feasibility and preliminary evaluation of the implementation science research development (ImpRes) tool and guide

Background:  Designing implementation research can be a complex and daunting task, especially for applied health researchers who have not received specialist training in implementation science. We developed the Implementation Science Research Development (ImpRes) tool and supplementary guide to address this challenge and provide researchers with a systematic approach to designing implementation research. Methods:  A multi-method and multi-stage approach was employed. An international, multidisciplinary expert panel engaged in an iterative brainstorming and consensus-building process to generate core domains of the ImpRes tool, representing core implementation science principles and concepts that researchers should consider when designing implementation research. Simultaneously, an iterative process of reviewing the literature and expert input informed the development and content of the tool. Once consensus had been reached, specialist expert input was sought on involving and engaging patients/service users; and economic evaluation. ImpRes was then applied to 15 implementation and improvement science projects across the National Institute of Health Research (NIHR) Collaboration for Leadership in Applied Health Research and Care (CLAHRC) South London, a research organisation in London, UK. Researchers who applied the ImpRes tool completed an 11-item questionnaire evaluating its structure, content and usefulness. Results:  Consensus was reached on ten implementation science domains to be considered when designing implementation research. These include implementation theories, frameworks and models, determinants of implementation, implementation strategies, implementation outcomes and unintended consequences. Researchers who used the ImpRes tool found it useful for identifying project areas where implementation science is lacking (median 5/5, IQR 4–5) and for improving the quality of implementation research (median 4/5, IQR 4–5) and agreed that it contained the key components that should be considered when designing implementation research (median 4/5, IQR 4–4). Qualitative feedback from researchers who applied the ImpRes tool indicated that a supplementary guide was needed to facilitate use of the tool. Conclusions:  We have developed a feasible and acceptable tool, and supplementary guide, to facilitate consideration and incorporation of core principles and concepts of implementation science in applied health implementation research. Future research is needed to establish whether application of the tool and guide has an effect on the quality of implementation research

Health, education, and social care provision after diagnosis of childhood visual disability

Aim: To investigate the health, education, and social care provision for children newly diagnosed with visual disability.Method: This was a national prospective study, the British Childhood Visual Impairment and Blindness Study 2 (BCVIS2), ascertaining new diagnoses of visual impairment or severe visual impairment and blindness (SVIBL), or equivalent vi-sion. Data collection was performed by managing clinicians up to 1-year follow-up, and included health and developmental needs, and health, education, and social care provision.Results: BCVIS2 identified 784 children newly diagnosed with visual impairment/SVIBL (313 with visual impairment, 471 with SVIBL). Most children had associated systemic disorders (559 [71%], 167 [54%] with visual impairment, and 392 [84%] with SVIBL). Care from multidisciplinary teams was provided for 549 children (70%). Two-thirds (515) had not received an Education, Health, and Care Plan (EHCP). Fewer children with visual impairment had seen a specialist teacher (SVIBL 35%, visual impairment 28%, χ2p < 0.001), or had an EHCP (11% vs 7%, χ2p < 0 . 01).Interpretation: Families need additional support from managing clinicians to access recommended complex interventions such as the use of multidisciplinary teams and educational support. This need is pressing, as the population of children with visual impairment/SVIBL is expected to grow in size and complexity.This is an open access article under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits use, distribution and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited