From product recommendation to cyber-attack prediction: generating attack graphs and predicting future attacks

Modern information society depends on reliable functionality of information systems infrastructure, while at the same time the number of cyber-attacks has been increasing over the years and damages have been caused. Furthermore, graphs can be used to show paths than can be exploited by attackers to intrude into systems and gain unauthorized access through vulnerability exploitation. This paper presents a method that builds attack graphs using data supplied from the maritime supply chain infrastructure. The method delivers all possible paths that can be exploited to gain access. Then, a recommendation system is utilized to make predictions about future attack steps within the network. We show that recommender systems can be used in cyber defense by predicting attacks. The goal of this paper is to identify attack paths and show how a recommendation method can be used to classify future cyber-attacks in terms of risk management. The proposed method has been experimentally evaluated and validated, with the results showing that it is both practical and effective

How Does Socioeconomic Development Affect COPD Mortality? An Age-Period-Cohort Analysis from a Recently Transitioned Population in China

Background: Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) is a leading cause of death, particularly in developing countries. Little is known about the effects of economic development on COPD mortality, although economic development may potentially have positive and negative influences over the life course on COPD. We took advantage of a unique population whose rapid and recent economic development is marked by changes at clearly delineated and identifiable time points, and where few women smoke, to examine the effect of macro-level events on COPD mortality. Methods: We used Poisson regression to decompose sex-specific COPD mortality rates in Hong Kong from 1981 to 2005 into the effects of age, period and cohort. Results: COPD mortality declined strongly over generations for people born from the early to mid 20th century, which was particularly evident for the first generation to grow up in a more economically developed environment for both sexes. Population wide COPD mortality decreased when air quality improved and increased with increasing air pollution. COPD mortality increased with age, particularly after menopause among women. Conclusions: Economic development may reduce vulnerability to COPD by reducing long-lasting insults to the respiratory system, such as infections, poor nutrition and indoor air pollution. However, some of these gains may be offset if economic development results in increasing air pollution or increasing smoking. © 2011 Chen et al.published_or_final_versio

Measurement of the tt¯tt¯ production cross section in pp collisions at √s=13 TeV with the ATLAS detector

A measurement of four-top-quark production using proton-proton collision data at a centre-of-mass energy of 13 TeV collected by the ATLAS detector at the Large Hadron Collider corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 139 fb−1 is presented. Events are selected if they contain a single lepton (electron or muon) or an opposite-sign lepton pair, in association with multiple jets. The events are categorised according to the number of jets and how likely these are to contain b-hadrons. A multivariate technique is then used to discriminate between signal and background events. The measured four-top-quark production cross section is found to be 26+17−15 fb, with a corresponding observed (expected) significance of 1.9 (1.0) standard deviations over the background-only hypothesis. The result is combined with the previous measurement performed by the ATLAS Collaboration in the multilepton final state. The combined four-top-quark production cross section is measured to be 24+7−6 fb, with a corresponding observed (expected) signal significance of 4.7 (2.6) standard deviations over the background-only predictions. It is consistent within 2.0 standard deviations with the Standard Model expectation of 12.0 ± 2.4 fb

Measurement and interpretation of same-sign W boson pair production in association with two jets in pp collisions at s = 13 TeV with the ATLAS detector

This paper presents the measurement of fducial and diferential cross sections for both the inclusive and electroweak production of a same-sign W-boson pair in association with two jets (W±W±jj) using 139 fb−1 of proton-proton collision data recorded at a centre-of-mass energy of √s = 13 TeV by the ATLAS detector at the Large Hadron Collider. The analysis is performed by selecting two same-charge leptons, electron or muon, and at least two jets with large invariant mass and a large rapidity diference. The measured fducial cross sections for electroweak and inclusive W±W±jj production are 2.92 ± 0.22 (stat.) ± 0.19 (syst.)fb and 3.38±0.22 (stat.)±0.19 (syst.)fb, respectively, in agreement with Standard Model predictions. The measurements are used to constrain anomalous quartic gauge couplings by extracting 95% confdence level intervals on dimension-8 operators. A search for doubly charged Higgs bosons H±± that are produced in vector-boson fusion processes and decay into a same-sign W boson pair is performed. The largest deviation from the Standard Model occurs for an H±± mass near 450 GeV, with a global signifcance of 2.5 standard deviations

Measurements of W+W−+ ≥ 1 jet production cross-sections in pp collisions at s \sqrt{s} = 13 TeV with the ATLAS detector

Fiducial and differential cross-section measurements of W+W− production in association with at least one hadronic jet are presented. These measurements are sensitive to the properties of electroweak-boson self-interactions and provide a test of perturbative quantum chromodynamics and the electroweak theory. The analysis is performed using proton-proton collision data collected at p s = 13TeV with the ATLAS experiment, corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 139 fb−1. Events are selected with exactly one oppositely charged electron-muon pair and at least one hadronic jet with a transverse momentum of pT > 30 GeV and a pseudorapidity of |�| < 4.5. After subtracting the background contributions and correcting for detector effects, the jet-inclusive W+W−+ � 1 jet fiducial cross-section and W+W−+ jets differential cross-sections with respect to several kinematic variables are measured. These measurements include leptonic quantities, such as the lepton transverse momenta and the transverse mass of the W+W− system, as well as jet-related observables such as the leading jet transverse momentum and the jet multiplicity. Limits on anomalous triple-gauge-boson couplings are obtained in a phase space where interference between the Standard Model amplitude and the anomalous amplitude is enhanced

Combination of searches for heavy spin-1 resonances using 139 fb−1 of proton-proton collision data at s = 13 TeV with the ATLAS detector

A combination of searches for new heavy spin-1 resonances decaying into different pairings of W, Z, or Higgs bosons, as well as directly into leptons or quarks, is presented. The data sample used corresponds to 139 fb−1 of proton-proton collisions at = 13 TeV collected during 2015–2018 with the ATLAS detector at the CERN Large Hadron Collider. Analyses selecting quark pairs (qq, bb, , and tb) or third-generation leptons (τν and ττ) are included in this kind of combination for the first time. A simplified model predicting a spin-1 heavy vector-boson triplet is used. Cross-section limits are set at the 95% confidence level and are compared with predictions for the benchmark model. These limits are also expressed in terms of constraints on couplings of the heavy vector-boson triplet to quarks, leptons, and the Higgs boson. The complementarity of the various analyses increases the sensitivity to new physics, and the resulting constraints are stronger than those from any individual analysis considered. The data exclude a heavy vector-boson triplet with mass below 5.8 TeV in a weakly coupled scenario, below 4.4 TeV in a strongly coupled scenario, and up to 1.5 TeV in the case of production via vector-boson fusion

Measurement of the energy asymmetry in t(t)over-barj production at 13 TeV with the ATLAS experiment and interpretation in the SMEFT framework

A measurement of the energy asymmetry in jet-associated top-quark pair production is presented using $$139\,{\mathrm {fb}}^{-1}$$ 139 fb - 1 of data collected by the ATLAS detector at the Large Hadron Collider during pp collisions at $$\sqrt{s}=13\,\text {TeV}$$ s = 13 TeV . The observable measures the different probability of top and antitop quarks to have the higher energy as a function of the jet scattering angle with respect to the beam axis. The energy asymmetry is measured in the semileptonic $$t{\bar{t}}$$ t t ¯ decay channel, and the hadronically decaying top quark must have transverse momentum above $$350\,\text {GeV}$$ 350 GeV . The results are corrected for detector effects to particle level in three bins of the scattering angle of the associated jet. The measurement agrees with the SM prediction at next-to-leading-order accuracy in quantum chromodynamics in all three bins. In the bin with the largest expected asymmetry, where the jet is emitted perpendicular to the beam, the energy asymmetry is measured to be $$-0.043\pm 0.020$$ - 0.043 ± 0.020 , in agreement with the SM prediction of $$-0.037\pm 0.003$$ - 0.037 ± 0.003 . Interpreting this result in the framework of the Standard Model effective field theory (SMEFT), it is shown that the energy asymmetry is sensitive to the top-quark chirality in four-quark operators and is therefore a valuable new observable in global SMEFT fits

Determination of the parton distribution functions of the proton using diverse ATLAS data from pp collisions at √s = 7, 8 and 13 TeV

This paper presents an analysis at next-to-next-to-leading order in the theory of quantum chromodynamics for the determination of a new set of proton parton distribution functions using diverse measurements in pp collisions at \sqrt{s} = 7, 8 and 13 TeV, performed by the ATLAS experiment at the Large Hadron Collider, together with deep inelastic scattering data from ep collisions at the HERA collider. The ATLAS data sets considered are differential cross-section measurements of inclusive W^{±} and Z/gamma^{*} boson production, W^{±} and Z boson production in association with jets, t\bar{t} production, inclusive jet production and direct photon production. In the analysis, particular attention is paid to the correlation of systematic uncertainties within and between the various ATLAS data sets and to the impact of model, theoretical and parameterisation uncertainties. The resulting set of parton distribution functions is called ATLASpdf21

Modelling and computational improvements to the simulation of single vector-boson plus jet processes for the ATLAS experiment

This paper presents updated Monte Carlo configurations used to model the production of single electroweak vector bosons (W, Z/gamma*) in association with jets in proton-proton collisions for the ATLAS experiment at the Large Hadron Collider. Improvements pertaining to the electroweak input scheme, parton-shower splitting kernels and scale-setting scheme are shown for multi-jet merged configurations accurate to next-to-leading order in the strong and electroweak couplings. The computational resources required for these set-ups are assessed, and approximations are introduced resulting in a factor three reduction of the per-event CPU time without affecting the physics modelling performance. Continuous statistical enhancement techniques are introduced by ATLAS in order to populate low cross-section regions of phase space and are shown to match or exceed the generated effective luminosity. This, together with the lower per-event CPU time, results in a 50% reduction in the required computing resources compared to a legacy set-up previously used by the ATLAS collaboration. The set-ups described in this paper will be used for future ATLAS analyses and lay the foundation for the next generation of Monte Carlo predictions for single vector-boson plus jets production