Improving the Prognostic Ability through Better Use of Standard Clinical Data - The Nottingham Prognostic Index as an Example

Background Prognostic factors and prognostic models play a key role in medical research and patient management. The Nottingham Prognostic Index (NPI) is a well-established prognostic classification scheme for patients with breast cancer. In a very simple way, it combines the information from tumor size, lymph node stage and tumor grade. For the resulting index cutpoints are proposed to classify it into three to six groups with different prognosis. As not all prognostic information from the three and other standard factors is used, we will consider improvement of the prognostic ability using suitable analysis approaches. Methods and Findings Reanalyzing overall survival data of 1560 patients from a clinical database by using multivariable fractional polynomials and further modern statistical methods we illustrate suitable multivariable modelling and methods to derive and assess the prognostic ability of an index. Using a REMARK type profile we summarize relevant steps of the analysis. Adding the information from hormonal receptor status and using the full information from the three NPI components, specifically concerning the number of positive lymph nodes, an extended NPI with improved prognostic ability is derived. Conclusions The prognostic ability of even one of the best established prognostic index in medicine can be improved by using suitable statistical methodology to extract the full information from standard clinical data. This extended version of the NPI can serve as a benchmark to assess the added value of new information, ranging from a new single clinical marker to a derived index from omics data. An established benchmark would also help to harmonize the statistical analyses of such studies and protect against the propagation of many false promises concerning the prognostic value of new measurements. Statistical methods used are generally available and can be used for similar analyses in other diseases

Drivers and Socioeconomic Impacts of Tourism Participation in Protected Areas

Nature-based tourism has the potential to enhance global biodiversity conservation by providing alternative livelihood strategies for local people, which may alleviate poverty in and around protected areas. Despite the popularity of the concept of nature-based tourism as an integrated conservation and development tool, empirical research on its actual socioeconomic benefits, on the distributional pattern of these benefits, and on its direct driving factors is lacking, because relevant long-term data are rarely available. In a multi-year study in Wolong Nature Reserve, China, we followed a representative sample of 220 local households from 1999 to 2007 to investigate the diverse benefits that these households received from recent development of nature-based tourism in the area. Within eight years, the number of households directly participating in tourism activities increased from nine to sixty. In addition, about two-thirds of the other households received indirect financial benefits from tourism. We constructed an empirical household economic model to identify the factors that led to household-level participation in tourism. The results reveal the effects of local households' livelihood assets (i.e., financial, human, natural, physical, and social capitals) on the likelihood to participate directly in tourism. In general, households with greater financial (e.g., income), physical (e.g., access to key tourism sites), human (e.g., education), and social (e.g., kinship with local government officials) capitals and less natural capital (e.g., cropland) were more likely to participate in tourism activities. We found that residents in households participating in tourism tended to perceive more non-financial benefits in addition to more negative environmental impacts of tourism compared with households not participating in tourism. These findings suggest that socioeconomic impact analysis and change monitoring should be included in nature-based tourism management systems for long-term sustainability of protected areas

Evaluation of a chemoresponse assay as a predictive marker in the treatment of recurrent ovarian cancer: Further analysis of a prospective study

BACKGROUND: Recently, a prospective study reported improved clinical outcomes for recurrent ovarian cancer patients treated with chemotherapies indicated to be sensitive by a chemoresponse assay, compared with those patients treated with non-sensitive therapies, thereby demonstrating the assay's prognostic properties. Due to cross-drug response over different treatments and possible association of in vitro chemosensitivity of a tumour with its inherent biology, further analysis is required to ascertain whether the assay performs as a predictive marker as well. METHODS: Women with persistent or recurrent epithelial ovarian cancer (n=262) were empirically treated with one of 15 therapies, blinded to assay results. Each patient's tumour was assayed for responsiveness to the 15 therapies. The assay's ability to predict progression-free survival (PFS) was assessed by comparing the association when the assayed therapy matches the administered therapy (match) with the association when the assayed therapy is randomly selected, not necessarily matching the administered therapy (mismatch). RESULTS: Patients treated with assay-sensitive therapies had improved PFS vs patients treated with non-sensitive therapies, with the assay result for match significantly associated with PFS (hazard ratio (HR)=0.67, 95% confidence interval (CI)=0.50–0.91, P=0.009). On the basis of 3000 simulations, the mean HR for mismatch was 0.81 (95% range=0.66–0.99), with 3.4% of HRs less than 0.67, indicating that HR for match is lower than for mismatch. While 47% of tumours were non-sensitive to all assayed therapies and 9% were sensitive to all, 44% displayed heterogeneity in assay results. Improved outcome was associated with the administration of an assay-sensitive therapy, regardless of homogeneous or heterogeneous assay responses across all of the assayed therapies. CONCLUSIONS: These analyses provide supportive evidence that this chemoresponse assay is a predictive marker, demonstrating its ability to discern specific therapies that are likely to be more effective among multiple alternatives

Calpain system protein expression in carcinomas of the pancreas, bile duct and ampulla

Background: Pancreatic cancer, including cancer of the ampulla of Vater and bile duct, is very aggressive and has a poor five year survival rate; improved methods of patient stratification are required. Methods: We assessed the expression of calpain-1, calpain-2 and calpastatin in two patient cohorts using immunohistochemistry on tissue microarrays. The first cohort was composed of 68 pancreatic adenocarcinomas and the second cohort was composed of 120 cancers of the bile duct and ampulla. Results: In bile duct and ampullary carcinomas an association was observed between cytoplasmic calpastatin expression and patient age (P = 0.036), and between nuclear calpastatin expression and increased tumour stage (P = 0.026) and the presence of vascular invasion (P = 0.043). In pancreatic cancer, high calpain-2 expression was significantly associated with improved overall survival (P = 0.036), which remained significant in multivariate Cox-regression analysis (hazard ratio = 0.342; 95% confidence interva l = 0.157-0.741; P = 0.007). In cancers of the bile duct and ampulla, low cytoplasmic expression of calpastatin was significantly associated with poor overall survival (P = 0.012), which remained significant in multivariate Cox-regression analysis (hazard ratio = 0.595; 95% confidence interval = 0.365-0.968; P = 0.037). Conclusion: The results suggest that calpain-2 and calpastatin expression is important in pancreatic cancers, influencing disease progression. The findings of this study warrant a larger follow-up study. Keywords: Calpain, Calpastatin, Pancreas, Ampulla, Bile duct, Cance

A Novel Multi-Antigen Virally Vectored Vaccine against Mycobacterium avium Subspecies paratuberculosis

BACKGROUND: Mycobacterium avium subspecies paratuberculosis causes systemic infection and chronic intestinal inflammation in many species including primates. Humans are exposed through milk and from sources of environmental contamination. Hitherto, the only vaccines available against Mycobacterium avium subspecies paratuberculosis have been limited to veterinary use and comprised attenuated or killed organisms. METHODS: We developed a vaccine comprising a fusion construct designated HAV, containing components of two secreted and two cell surface Mycobacterium avium subspecies paratuberculosis proteins. HAV was transformed into DNA, human Adenovirus 5 (Ad5) and Modified Vaccinia Ankara (MVA) delivery vectors. Full length expression of the predicted 95 kDa fusion protein was confirmed. PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: Vaccination of naïve and Mycobacterium avium subspecies paratuberculosis infected C57BL/6 mice using DNA-prime/MVA-boost or Ad5-prime/MVA-boost protocols was highly immunogenic resulting in significant IFN-gamma ELISPOT responses by splenocytes against recombinant vaccine antigens and a range of HAV specific peptides. This included strong recognition of a T-cell epitope GFAEINPIA located near the C-terminus of the fusion protein. Antibody responses to recombinant vaccine antigens and HAV specific peptides but not GFAEINPIA, also occurred. No immune recognition of vaccine antigens occurred in any sham vaccinated Mycobacterium avium subspecies paratuberculosis infected mice. Vaccination using either protocol significantly attenuated pre-existing Mycobacterium avium subspecies paratuberculosis infection measured by qPCR in spleen and liver and the Ad5-prime/MVA-boost protocol also conferred some protection against subsequent challenge. No adverse effects of vaccination occurred in any of the mice. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: A range of modern veterinary and clinical vaccines for the treatment and prevention of disease caused by Mycobacterium avium subspecies paratuberculosis are needed. The present vaccine proved to be highly immunogenic without adverse effect in mice and both attenuated pre-existing Mycobacterium avium subspecies paratuberculosis infection and conferred protection against subsequent challenge. Further studies of the present vaccine in naturally infected animals and humans are indicated

Nottingham prognostic index plus (NPI+) predicts risk of distant metastases in primary breast cancer

The Nottingham prognostic index plus (NPI+) is based on the assessment of biological class combined with established clinicopathologic prognostic variables providing improved patient outcome stratification for breast cancer superior to the traditional NPI. This study aimed to determine prognostic capability of the NPI+ in predicting risk of development of distant disease. A well-characterised series of 1073 primary early-stage BC cases treated in Nottingham and 251 cases from Budapest were immunohistochemically assessed for cytokeratin (Ck)5/6, Ck18, EGFR, oestrogen receptor (ER), progesterone receptor, HER2, HER3, HER4, Mucin 1 and p53 expression. NPI+ biological class and prognostic scores were assigned using individual algorithms for each biological class incorporating clinicopathologic parameters and investigated in terms of prediction of distant metastases-free survival (MFS). The NPI+ identified distinct prognostic groups (PG) within each molecular class which were predictive of MFS providing improved patient outcome stratification superior to the traditional NPI. NPI+ PGs, between series, were comparable in predicting patient outcome between series in luminal A, basal p53 altered and HER2+/ER+ (p > 0.01) tumours. The low-risk groups were similarly validated in luminal B, luminal N, basal p53 normal tumours (p > 0.01). Due to small patient numbers the remaining PGs could not be validated. NPI+ was additionally able to predict a higher risk of metastases at certain distant sites. This study may indicate the NPI+ as a useful tool in predicting the risk of metastases. The NPI+ provides accurate risk stratification allowing improved individualised clinical decision making for breast cancer

HIV/TB Co-Infection in Mainland China: A Meta-Analysis

Background: TB and HIV co-epidemic is a major public health problem in many parts of the world, particularly in developing counties. We aimed to summarize the prevalence of TB and HIV co-infection in mainland China, using meta-analysis based on systematic review of published articles. Methods: We systematically reviewed published studies, from the MEDLINE and Chinese BioMedical Literature Databases, on the prevalence of HIV infection among TB patients and on the prevalence of TB among HIV/AIDS population until 15 April 2010, and quantitatively summarized the estimates using meta-analysis. Results: In total, 29 studies were included in this review, with consistently homogeneous results. TB patients, for whom the summary prevalence of HIV infection was 0.9 % (0.6%–1.4%) in mainland China, were found to be a potential target population for HIV screening. The prevalence of TB among HIV/AIDS population was 7.2 % (4.2%–12.3%), but this was much higher when the analyses were restricted to AIDS patients (22.8%). Significantly higher prevalence was observed for males and hospital-based studies. Conclusions: Our analyses indicated that the prevalence of HIV/TB co-infection in China deserves special attention, screening of TB among HIV/AIDS populations should be attached more importance, which would be much more helpful for treatment of both diseases

Alzheimer's disease - input of vitamin D with mEmantine assay (AD-IDEA trial): study protocol for a randomized controlled trial

BACKGROUND: Current treatments for Alzheimer\u27s disease and related disorders (ADRD) are symptomatic and can only temporarily slow down ADRD. Future possibilities of care rely on multi-target drugs therapies that address simultaneously several pathophysiological processes leading to neurodegeneration. We hypothesized that the combination of memantine with vitamin D could be neuroprotective in ADRD, thereby limiting neuronal loss and cognitive decline. The aim of this trial is to compare the effect after 24 weeks of the oral intake of vitamin D3 (cholecalciferol) with the effect of a placebo on the change of cognitive performance in patients suffering from moderate ADRD and receiving memantine. METHODS: The AD-IDEA Trial is a unicentre, double-blind, randomized, placebo-controlled, intent-to-treat, superiority trial. Patients aged 60 years and older presenting with moderate ADRD (i.e., Mini-Mental State Examination [MMSE] score between 10-20), hypovitaminosis D (i.e., serum 25-hydroxyvitamin D [25OHD] < 30 ng/mL), normocalcemia (i.e., serum calcium < 2.65 mmol/L) and receiving no antidementia treatment at time of inclusion are being recruited. All participants receive memantine 20 mg once daily -titrated in 5 mg increments over 4 weeks- and each one is randomized to one of the two treatment options: either cholecalciferol (one 100,000 IU drinking vial every 4 weeks) or placebo (administered at the same pace). One hundred and twenty participants are being recruited and treatment continues for 24 weeks. Primary outcome measure is change in cognitive performance using Alzheimer\u27s Disease Assessment Scale-cognition score. Secondary outcomes are changes in other cognitive scores (MMSE, Frontal Assessment Battery, Trail Making Test parts A and B), change in functional performance (Activities of Daily Living scale, and 4-item Instrumental Activities of Daily Living scale), posture and gait (Timed Up & Go, Five Time Sit-to-Stand, spatio-temporal analysis of walking), as well as the between-groups comparison of compliance to treatment and tolerance. These outcomes are assessed at baseline, 12 and 24 weeks, together with the serum concentrations of 25OHD, calcium and parathyroid hormone. DISCUSSION: The combination of memantine plus vitamin D may represent a new multi-target therapeutic class for the treatment of ADRD. The AD-IDEA Trial seeks to provide evidence on its efficacy in limiting cognitive and functional declines in ADRD. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT01409694

BCL2 in breast cancer: a favourable prognostic marker across molecular subtypes and independent of adjuvant therapy received

Background: Breast cancer is heterogeneous and the existing prognostic classifiers are limited in accuracy, leading to unnecessary treatment of numerous women. B-cell lymphoma 2 (BCL2), an antiapoptotic protein, has been proposed as a prognostic marker, but this effect is considered to relate to oestrogen receptor (ER) status. This study aimed to test the clinical validity of BCL2 as an independent prognostic marker. Methods: Five studies of 11 212 women with early-stage breast cancer were analysed. Individual patient data included tumour size, grade, lymph node status, endocrine therapy, chemotherapy and mortality. BCL2, ER, progesterone receptor (PR) and human epidermal growth factor receptor 2 (HER2) levels were determined in all tumours. A Cox model incorporating the time-dependent effects of each variable was used to explore the prognostic significance of BCL2. Results: In univariate analysis, ER, PR and BCL2 positivity was associated with improved survival and HER2 positivity with inferior survival. For ER and PR this effect was time dependent, whereas for BCL2 and HER2 the effect persisted over time. In multivariate analysis, BCL2 positivity retained independent prognostic significance (hazard ratio (HR) 0.76, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.66-0.88, P<0.001). BCL2 was a powerful prognostic marker in ER (HR 0.63, 95% CI 0.54-0.74, P<0.001) and ER disease (HR 0.56, 95% CI 0.48-0.65, P<0.001), and in HER2 (HR 0.55, 95% CI 0.49-0.61, P<0.001) and HER2 disease (HR 0.70, 95% CI 0.57-0.85, P<0.001), irrespective of the type of adjuvant therapy received. Addition of BCL2 to the Adjuvant! Online prognostic model, for a subset of cases with a 10-year follow-up, improved the survival prediction (P<0.0039). Conclusions: BCL2 is an independent indicator of favourable prognosis for all types of early-stage breast cancer. This study establishes the rationale for introduction of BCL2 immunohistochemistry to improve prognostic stratification. Further work is now needed to ascertain the exact way to apply BCL2 testing for risk stratification and to standardise BCL2 immunohistochemistry for this application. © 2010 Cancer Research UK All rights reserved

Ki-67 as prognostic marker in early breast cancer: a meta-analysis of published studies involving 12 155 patients

The Ki-67 antigen is used to evaluate the proliferative activity of breast cancer (BC); however, Ki-67's role as a prognostic marker in BC is still undefined. In order to better define the prognostic value of Ki-67/MIB-1, we performed a meta-analysis of studies that evaluated the impact of Ki-67/MIB-1 on disease-free survival (DFS) and/or on overall survival (OS) in early BC. Sixty-eight studies were identified and 46 studies including 12 155 patients were evaluable for our meta-analysis; 38 studies were evaluable for the aggregation of results for DFS, and 35 studies for OS. Patients were considered to present positive tumours for the expression of Ki-67/MIB-1 according to the cut-off points defined by the authors. Ki-67/MIB-1 positivity is associated with higher probability of relapse in all patients (HR=1.93 (95% confidence interval (CI): 1.74–2.14); P<0.001), in node-negative patients (HR=2.31 (95% CI: 1.83–2.92); P<0.001) and in node-positive patients (HR=1.59 (95% CI: 1.35–1.87); P<0.001). Furthermore, Ki-67/MIB-1 positivity is associated with worse survival in all patients (HR=1.95 (95% CI: 1.70–2.24; P<0.001)), node-negative patients (HR=2.54 (95% CI: 1.65–3.91); P<0.001) and node-positive patients (HR=2.33 (95% CI: 1.83–2.95); P<0.001). Our meta-analysis suggests that Ki-67/MIB-1 positivity confers a higher risk of relapse and a worse survival in patients with early BC