Earnings Prediction with Deep Leaning

In the financial sector, a reliable forecast the future financial performance of a company is of great importance for investors' investment decisions. In this paper we compare long-term short-term memory (LSTM) networks to temporal convolution network (TCNs) in the prediction of future earnings per share (EPS). The experimental analysis is based on quarterly financial reporting data and daily stock market returns. For a broad sample of US firms, we find that both LSTMs outperform the naive persistent model with up to 30.0% more accurate predictions, while TCNs achieve and an improvement of 30.8%. Both types of networks are at least as accurate as analysts and exceed them by up to 12.2% (LSTM) and 13.2% (TCN).Comment: 7 pages, 4 figures, 2 tables, submitted to KI202

Electron scattering by methanol and ethanol: A joint theoretical-experimental investigation

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)We present a joint theoretical-experimental study on electron scattering by methanol (CH3OH) and ethanol (C2H5OH) in a wide energy range. Experimental differential, integral and momentum-transfer cross sections for elastic electron scattering by ethanol are reported in the 100-1000 eV energy range. The experimental angular distributions of the energy-selected electrons are measured and converted to absolute cross sections using the relative flow technique. Moreover, elastic, total, and total absorption cross sections for both alcohols are calculated in the 1-500 eV energy range. A complex optical potential is used to represent the dynamics of the electron-alcohol interaction, whereas the scattering equations are solved iteratively using the Pade's approximant technique. Our calculated data agree well with those obtained using the Schwinger multichannel method at energies up to 20 eV. Discrepancies at high energies indicate the importance of absorption effects, included in our calculations. In general, the comparison between our theoretical and experimental results, as well as with other experimental data available in the literature, also show good agreement. Nevertheless, the discrepancy between the theoretical and experimental total cross sections at low incident energies suggests that the experimental cross sections measured using the transmission technique for polar targets should be reviewed. (C) 2012 American Institute of Physics. [http://dx.doi.org/10.1063/1.3695211]13611Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP

Evaluation of rK39 rapid diagnostic tests for canine visceral leishmaniasis : longitudinal study and meta-analysis

Canine visceral leishmaniasis is a vector-borne disease caused by the intracellular parasite Leishmania infantum. It is an important veterinary disease, and dogs are also the main animal reservoir for human infection. The disease is widespread in the Mediterranean area, and parts of Asia and South and Central America, and is potentially fatal in both dogs and humans unless treated. Diagnosis of canine infections requires serological or molecular tests. Detection of infection in dogs is important prior to treatment, and in epidemiological studies and control programmes, and a sensitive and specific rapid diagnostic test would be very useful. Rapid diagnostic tests (RDTs) have been developed, but their diagnostic performance has been reported to be variable. We evaluated the sensitivity of a RDT based on serological detection of the rK39 antigen in a cohort of naturally infected Brazilian dogs. The sensitivity of the test to detect infection was relatively low, but increased with time since infection and the severity of infection. We then carried out a meta-analysis of published studies of rK39 RDTs, evaluating the sensitivity to detect disease and infection. The results suggest that rK39 RDTs may be useful in a veterinary clinical setting, but the sensitivity to detect infection is too low for operational control programmes

Breast cancer incidence, stage, treatment and survival in ethnic groups in South East England

Studies from the US have shown variations in breast cancer incidence, stage distribution, treatment and survival between ethnic groups. Data on 35 631 women diagnosed with breast cancer in South East England between 1998 and 2003 with self-assigned ethnicity information available were analysed. Results are reported for White, Indian, Pakistani, Bangladeshi, Black Caribbean, Black African and Chinese women. Age-standardised breast cancer incidence rate ratios, patterns of stage of disease at diagnosis, treatment, overall and breast cancer-specific survival were examined. All ethnic groups studied had lower age-standardised breast cancer incidence rates than White women, with Bangladeshi women having the lowest rate ratio (0.23, 95% CI: 0.20–0.26). White women were the most likely to have a stage recorded at diagnosis (adjusted proportion 75%), and least likely to be diagnosed with metastatic disease (7%). Black African women were the least likely to have a record of cancer surgery (63%) or hormone therapy (32%), and most likely to receive chemotherapy (38%). After fully adjusting for age, socioeconomic deprivation, stage of disease and treatment received, there was no significant variation in breast cancer-specific survival. However, Black African women had significantly worse overall survival (hazard ratio 1.24, P=0.025). These findings suggest that a strategy of earlier detection should be pursued in Black and South Asian women

Lymphocyte subsets in human immunodeficiency virus-unexposed Brazilian individuals from birth to adulthood

Ethnic origin, genetics, gender and environmental factors have been shown to influence some immunologic indices, so that development of reference values for populations of different backgrounds may be necessary. We have determined the distribution of lymphocyte subsets in healthy Brazilian individuals from birth to adulthood. Lymphocyte subsets were determined using four-colour cytometry in a cross-sectional study of 463 human immunodeficiency virus-unexposed children and adults from birth through 49 years of age. Lymphocyte subsets varied according to age, as previously observed in other studies. However, total CD4+ T cell numbers were lower than what was described in the Pediatric AIDS Clinical Trials Group P1009 (PACTG P1009), which assessed an American population of predominantly African and Hispanic backgrounds until the 12-18 year age range, when values were comparable. Naïve percentages and absolute values of CD8+ T cells, as assessed by CD45RA expression, were also lower than the PACTG P1009 data for all analysed age ranges. CD38 expression on both CD4+ and CD8+ T cells was lower than the PACTG P1009 values, with a widening gap between the two studies at older age ranges. Different patterns of cell differentiation seem to occur in different settings and may have characteristic expression within each population.Universidade Federal de São Paulo (UNIFESP) Departamento de MedicinaCentro Assistencial Cruz de MaltaUniversidade Federal de São Paulo (UNIFESP) Departamento de PediatriaUNIFESP, Depto. de MedicinaUNIFESP, Depto. de PediatriaSciEL

The Environmental History of Cetaceans in Portugal: Ten Centuries of Whale and Dolphin Records

The history between cetaceans and humans is documented throughout time not only in reports, descriptions, and tales but also in legal documents, laws and regulations, and tithes. This wealth of information comes from the easy spotting and identification of individuals due to their large size, surface breathing, and conspicuous above water behaviour. This work is based on historical sources and accounts accounting for cetacean presence for the period between the 12th and 17th centuries, as well as scientific articles, newspapers, illustrations, maps, non-published scientific reports, and other grey literature from the 18th century onwards. Information on whale use in Portugal's mainland has been found since as early as the 12th century and has continued to be created throughout time. No certainty can be given for medieval and earlier events, but both scavenging of stranded whales or use of captured ones may have happened. There is an increasing number of accounts of sighted, stranded, used, or captured cetaceans throughout centuries which is clearly associated with a growing effort towards the study of these animals. Scientific Latin species denominations only started to be registered from the 18th century onwards, as a consequence of the evolution of natural sciences in Portugal and increasing interest from zoologists. After the 19th century, a larger number of observations were recorded, and from the 20th century to the present day, regular scientific records have been collected. Research on the environmental history of cetaceans in Portugal shows a several-centuries-old exploitation of whales and dolphins, as resources mainly for human consumption, followed in later centuries by descriptions of natural history documenting strandings and at sea encounters. Most cetaceans species currently thought to be present in Portuguese mainland waters were at some point historically recorded

Age-specific mortality patterns in Central Mozambique during and after the end of the Civil War

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>In recent years, vigorous debate has developed concerning how conflicts contribute to the spread of infectious diseases, and in particular, the role of post-conflict situations in the epidemiology of HIV/AIDS. This study details the age-specific mortality patterns among the population in the central provincial capital of Beira, Mozambique, during and after the Mozambican civil war which ended in 1992.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Data was collected from the death register at Beira's Central Hospital between 1985 and 2003 and descriptively analyzed.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>The data show two distinct periods: before and after the peace agreements in 1992. Before 1992 (during the civil war), the main impact of mortality was on children below 5 years of age, including still births, accounting for 58% of all deaths. After the war ended in 1992, the pattern shifted dramatically and rapidly to the 15-49 year old age group which accounted for 49% of all deaths by 2003.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>As under-5 mortality rates were decreasing at the end of the conflict, rates for 24-49 year old adults began to dramatically increase due to AIDS. This study demonstrates that strategies can be implemented during conflicts to decrease mortality rates in one vulnerable population but post-conflict dynamics can bring together other factors which contribute to the rapid spread of other infectious diseases in other vulnerable populations.</p