Population-level impact of expanding PrEP coverage by offering long-acting injectable PrEP to MSM in three high-resource settings: a model comparison analysis

INTRODUCTION: Long-acting injectable cabotegravir (CAB-LA) demonstrated superiority to daily tenofovir disoproxil fumarate/emtricitabine (TDF/FTC) for HIV pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) in the HPTN 083/084 trials. We compared the potential impact of expanding PrEP coverage by offering CAB-LA to men who have sex with men (MSM) in Atlanta (US), Montreal (Canada) and the Netherlands, settings with different HIV epidemics. METHODS: Three risk-stratified HIV transmission models were independently parameterized and calibrated to local data. In Atlanta, Montreal and the Netherlands, the models, respectively, estimated mean TDF/FTC coverage starting at 29%, 7% and 4% in 2022, and projected HIV incidence per 100 person-years (PY), respectively, decreasing from 2.06 to 1.62, 0.08 to 0.03 and 0.07 to 0.001 by 2042. Expansion of PrEP coverage was simulated by recruiting new CAB-LA users and by switching different proportions of TDF/FTC users to CAB-LA. Population effectiveness and efficiency of PrEP expansions were evaluated over 20 years in comparison to baseline scenarios with TDF/FTC only. RESULTS: Increasing PrEP coverage by 11 percentage points (pp) from 29% to 40% by 2032 was expected to avert a median 36% of new HIV acquisitions in Atlanta. Substantially larger increases (by 33 or 26 pp) in PrEP coverage (to 40% or 30%) were needed to achieve comparable reductions in Montreal and the Netherlands, respectively. A median 17 additional PYs on PrEP were needed to prevent one acquisition in Atlanta with 40% PrEP coverage, compared to 1000+ in Montreal and 4000+ in the Netherlands. Reaching 50% PrEP coverage by 2032 by recruiting CAB-LA users among PrEP-eligible MSM could avert >45% of new HIV acquisitions in all settings. Achieving targeted coverage 5 years earlier increased the impact by 5-10 pp. In the Atlanta model, PrEP expansions achieving 40% and 50% coverage reduced differences in PrEP access between PrEP-indicated White and Black MSM from 23 to 9 pp and 4 pp, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: Achieving high PrEP coverage by offering CAB-LA can impact the HIV epidemic substantially if rolled out without delays. These PrEP expansions may be efficient in settings with high HIV incidence (like Atlanta) but not in settings with low HIV incidence (like Montreal and the Netherlands)

Mature exotic conifer stands have greater catches of the EU-protected Geomalacus maculosus than adjacent peatland or clear-felled stands—implications for forestry

© 2017, INRA and Springer-Verlag France SAS, part of Springer Nature. Key message: Mature exotic Sitka spruce (Picea sitchensis; Bong. Carrière)-dominated stands, particularly trees of greater circumference, result in greater numbers ofGeomalacus maculosus(Allman) captures than adjacent clear-felled stands and adjacent peatland with Before-After-Control-Impact-Paired analysis indicating lower catches ofG. maculosuspost-felling. Context: The discovery of EU-protected Geomalacus maculosus in commercial plantations requires an understanding of the implications of forestry practices for the species within the context of sustainable forest management. Aims: 1.Compare Geomalacus maculosus captures across mature exotic Sitka spruce-dominated stands, previously clear-felled stands and adjacent peatland habitats.2.Assess the suitability, for forest managers, of population estimate models for G. maculosus.3.Assess the implications of felling by comparing relative abundances of G. maculosus directly before and after clear-felling at a mature exotic Sitka spruce-dominated stand. Methods: Geomalacus maculosus catches were compared at four sites across two to three mature (43–45 years old) conifer stands per site, one clear-felled stand per site, and one adjacent peatland per site using refuge traps and hand searching. Capture-mark-recapture studies were undertaken to estimate population sizes. A BACIP (Before-After-Control-Impact-Paired) analysis was undertaken in one forest stand at one forest site to determine impacts of a clear-felling event. Results: Mean catches of Geomalacus maculosus adults in the mature forest stands were over 10 and 11 times greater than mean catches on peatland and clear-fell stands, respectively. The Schnabel model for estimating population size was most suited for mature forest stands but could not be utilised for the other habitats. BACIP analysis showed a significant impact of clear-felling with a 95% reduction in mean G. maculosus catches after a clear-felling event where none of the individuals marked prior to felling were recaptured compared to 21% recapture rates at the control site. Greater tree circumference in mature conifer stands correlated with greater catches. Conclusion: Guidelines are needed to ensure the protection of Geomalacus maculosus in commercial forestry. Interventions could include patch/tall stump retention at final felling and/or translocation of the protected species

Increased HIV Incidence in Men Who Have Sex with Men Despite High Levels of ART-Induced Viral Suppression: Analysis of an Extensively Documented Epidemic

Background: There is interest in expanding ART to prevent HIV transmission, but in the group with the highest levels of ART use, men-who-have-sex-with-men (MSM), numbers of new infections diagnosed each year have not decreased as ART coverage has increased for reasons which remain unclear. Methods: We analysed data on the HIV-epidemic in MSM in the UK from a range of sources using an individual-based simulation model. Model runs using parameter sets found to result in good model fit were used to infer changes in HIV-incidence and risk behaviour. Results: HIV-incidence has increased (estimated mean incidence 0.30/100 person-years 1990–1997, 0.45/100 py 1998–2010), associated with a modest (26%) rise in condomless sex. We also explored counter-factual scenarios: had ART not been introduced, but the rise in condomless sex had still occurred, then incidence 2006–2010 was 68% higher; a policy of ART initiation in all diagnosed with HIV from 2001 resulted in 32% lower incidence; had levels of HIV testing been higher (68% tested/year instead of 25%) incidence was 25% lower; a combination of higher testing and ART at diagnosis resulted in 62% lower incidence; cessation of all condom use in 2000 resulted in a 424% increase in incidence. In 2010, we estimate that undiagnosed men, the majority in primary infection, accounted for 82% of new infections. Conclusion: A rise in HIV-incidence has occurred in MSM in the UK despite an only modest increase in levels of condomless sex and high coverage of ART. ART has almost certainly exerted a limiting effect on incidence. Much higher rates of HIV testing combined with initiation of ART at diagnosis would be likely to lead to substantial reductions in HIV incidence. Increased condom use should be promoted to avoid the erosion of the benefits of ART and to prevent other serious sexually transmitted infections

Estimating the Impact of Plasma HIV-1 RNA Reductions on Heterosexual HIV-1 Transmission Risk

Background: The risk of sexual transmission of HIV-1 is strongly associated with the level of HIV-1 RNA in plasma making reduction in HIV-1 plasma levels an important target for HIV-1 prevention interventions. A quantitative understanding of the relationship of plasma HIV-1 RNA and HIV-1 transmission risk could help predict the impact of candidate HIV-1 prevention interventions that operate by reducing plasma HIV-1 levels, such as antiretroviral therapy (ART), therapeutic vaccines, and other non-ART interventions. Methodology/Principal Findings: We use prospective data collected from 2004 to 2008 in East and Southern African HIV-1 serodiscordant couples to model the relationship of plasma HIV-1 RNA levels and heterosexual transmission risk with confirmation of HIV-1 transmission events by HIV-1 sequencing. The model is based on follow-up of 3381 HIV-1 serodiscordant couples over 5017 person-years encompassing 108 genetically-linked HIV-1 transmission events. HIV-1 transmission risk was 2.27 per 100 person-years with a log-linear relationship to log10 plasma HIV-1 RNA. The model predicts that a decrease in average plasma HIV-1 RNA of 0.74 log10 copies/mL (95% CI 0.60 to 0.97) reduces heterosexual transmission risk by 50%, regardless of the average starting plasma HIV-1 level in the population and independent of other HIV-1-related population characteristics. In a simulated population with a similar plasma HIV-1 RNA distribution the model estimates that 90% of overall HIV-1 infections averted by a 0.74 copies/mL reduction in plasma HIV-1 RNA could be achieved by targeting this reduction to the 58% of the cohort with plasma HIV-1 levels ≥4 log10 copies/mL. Conclusions/Significance: This log-linear model of plasma HIV-1 levels and risk of sexual HIV-1 transmission may help estimate the impact on HIV-1 transmission and infections averted from candidate interventions that reduce plasma HIV-1 RNA levels

Missed Opportunities for HIV Testing and Late-Stage Diagnosis among HIV-Infected Patients in Uganda

BACKGROUND: Late diagnosis of HIV infection is a major challenge to the scale-up of HIV prevention and treatment. In 2005 Uganda adopted provider-initiated HIV testing in the health care setting to ensure earlier HIV diagnosis and linkage to care. We provided HIV testing to patients at Mulago hospital in Uganda, and performed CD4 tests to assess disease stage at diagnosis. METHODS: Patients who had never tested for HIV or tested negative over one year prior to recruitment were enrolled between May 2008 and March 2010. Participants who tested HIV positive had a blood draw for CD4. Late HIV diagnosis was defined as CD4≤250 cells/mm. Predictors of late HIV diagnosis were analyzed using multi-variable logistic regression. RESULTS: Of 1966 participants, 616 (31.3%) were HIV infected; 47.6% of these (291) had CD4 counts ≤250. Overall, 66.7% (408) of the HIV infected participants had never received care in a medical clinic. Receiving care in a non-medical setting (home, traditional healer and drug stores) had a threefold increase in the odds of late diagnosis (OR = 3.2; 95%CI: 2.1-4.9) compared to receiving no health care. CONCLUSIONS: Late HIV diagnosis remains prevalent five years after introducing provider-initiated HIV testing in Uganda. Many individuals diagnosed with advanced HIV did not have prior exposure to medical clinics and could not have benefitted from the expansion of provider initiated HIV testing within health facilities. In addition to provider-initiated testing, approaches that reach individuals using non-hospital based encounters should be expanded to ensure early HIV diagnosis

Expanding ART for Treatment and Prevention of HIV in South Africa: Estimated Cost and Cost-Effectiveness 2011-2050

Background: Antiretroviral Treatment (ART) significantly reduces HIV transmission. We conducted a cost-effectiveness analysis of the impact of expanded ART in South Africa. Methods: We model a best case scenario of 90% annual HIV testing coverage in adults 15-49 years old and four ART eligibility scenarios: CD4 count <200 cells/mm3(current practice), CD4 count <350, CD4 count <500, all CD4 levels. 2011-2050 outcomes include deaths, disability adjusted life years (DALYs), HIV infections, cost, and cost per DALY averted. Service and ART costs reflect South African data and international generic prices. ART reduces transmission by 92%. We conducted sensitivity analyses. Results: Expanding ART to CD4 count <350 cells/mm3prevents an estimated 265,000 (17%) and 1.3 million (15%) new HIV infections over 5 and 40 years, respectively. Cumulative deaths decline 15%, from 12.5 to 10.6 million; DALYs by 14% from 109 to 93 million over 40 years. Costs drop $504 million over 5 years and$3.9 billion over 40 years with breakeven by 2013. Compared with the current scenario, expanding to <500 prevents an additional 585,000 and 3 million new HIV infections over 5 and 40 years, respectively. Expanding to all CD4 levels decreases HIV infections by 3.3 million (45%) and costs by $10 billion over 40 years, with breakeven by 2023. By 2050, using higher ART and monitoring costs, all CD4 levels saves$0.6 billion versus current; other ART scenarios cost $9-194 per DALY averted. If ART reduces transmission by 99$17.5 billion. Sensitivity analyses suggest that poor retention and predominant acute phase transmission reduce DALYs averted by 26% and savings by 7%. Conclusion: Increasing the provision of ART to <350 cells/mm3 may significantly reduce costs while reducing the HIV burden. Feasibility including HIV testing and ART uptake, retention, and adherence should be evaluated

HIV Treatment as Prevention: Debate and Commentary-Will Early Infection Compromise Treatment-as-Prevention Strategies?

Universal HIV testing and immediate antiretroviral therapy for infected individuals has been proposed as a way of reducing the transmission of HIV and thereby bringing the HIV epidemic under control. It is unclear whether transmission during early HIV infection—before individuals are likely to have been diagnosed with HIV and started on antiretroviral therapy—will compromise the effectiveness of treatment as prevention. This article presents two opposing viewpoints by Powers, Miller, and Cohen, and Williams and Dye, followed by a commentary by Fraser

Morbidity and Risk of Subsequent Diagnosis of HIV: A Population Based Case Control Study Identifying Indicator Diseases for HIV Infection

BACKGROUND: Early identification of persons with undiagnosed HIV infection is an important health care issue. We examined associations between diseases diagnosed in hospitals and risk of subsequent HIV diagnosis. METHODS: In this population-based case control study, cases were persons with incident HIV infection diagnosed in Denmark between 1 January 1995 and 1 June 2008. Risk-set sampling was used to identify 19 age- and gender-matched population controls for each HIV case, using the HIV diagnosis date as the index date for both cases and controls. Prior hospital diagnoses obtained from Danish medical databases were first categorized into 22 major disease categories (excluding AIDS-defining diseases except tuberculosis) and then subdivided into 161 subcategories, allowing us to examine specific diseases as potential HIV indicators by conditional logistic regression. RESULTS: The study included 2,036 HIV cases and 35,718 controls. Persons with the following disease categories had a high risk of HIV diagnosis during the subsequent 5-year period: sexually transmitted infections and viral hepatitis (adjusted odds ratio [aOR] = 12.3, 95% CI: 9.60-15.7), hematological diseases (aOR = 4.28, 3.13-5.85), lower respiratory tract infections (aOR = 3.98, 3.14-5.04)), CNS infections (aOR = 3.44, 1.74-6.80), skin infections (aOR = 3.05, 2.47-3.75), other infections (aOR = 4.64, 3.89-5.54), and substance abuse (aOR = 2.60, 2.06-3.29). Several specific diseases were associated with aORs >20 including syphilis, hepatitis A, non "A" viral hepatitis, herpes zoster, candida infection, endocarditis, thrombocytopenia, and opioid abuse. CONCLUSIONS: Targeted testing for HIV in patients diagnosed with diseases associated with HIV may lead to earlier treatment and thereby reduced morbidity, mortality and HIV transmission

Optimal Uses of Antiretrovirals for Prevention in HIV-1 Serodiscordant Heterosexual Couples in South Africa: A Modelling Study

Hallett et al use a mathematical model to examine the long-term impact and cost-effectiveness of different pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) strategies for HIV prevention in serodiscordant couples

Genomewide Association Study for Determinants of HIV-1 Acquisition and Viral Set Point in HIV-1 Serodiscordant Couples with Quantified Virus Exposure

Host genetic factors may be important determinants of HIV-1 sexual acquisition. We performed a genome-wide association study (GWAS) for host genetic variants modifying HIV-1 acquisition and viral control in the context of a cohort of African HIV-1 serodiscordant heterosexual couples. To minimize misclassification of HIV-1 risk, we quantified HIV-1 exposure, using data including plasma HIV-1 concentrations, gender, and condom use.We matched couples without HIV-1 seroconversion to those with seroconversion by quantified HIV-1 exposure risk. Logistic regression of single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) for 798 samples from 496 HIV-1 infected and 302 HIV-1 exposed, uninfected individuals was performed to identify factors associated with HIV-1 acquisition. In addition, a linear regression analysis was performed using SNP data from a subset (n = 403) of HIV-1 infected individuals to identify factors predicting plasma HIV-1 concentrations.After correcting for multiple comparisons, no SNPs were significantly associated with HIV-1 infection status or plasma HIV-1 concentrations.This GWAS controlling for HIV-1 exposure did not identify common host genotypes influencing HIV-1 acquisition. Alternative strategies, such as large-scale sequencing to identify low frequency variation, should be considered for identifying novel host genetic predictors of HIV-1 acquisition