Stimmensplitting und Koalitionswahl

Hat sich die Unabhängigkeitsstrategie der FDP bei der letzten Bundestagswahl ausgezahlt? Wäre die FDP erfolgreicher gewesen, wenn sie im Vorfeld klar signalisiert hätte, dass man eine Koalition mit der Union anstrebt? Wie war das bei den Grünen, die ja im Gegensatz zur FDP keine Zweifel aufkommen ließen? Natürlich können wir nicht wie in einer Simulation oder einem Experiment einfach den Wahlkampf wiederholen und noch einmal wählen lassen. Um eine befriedigende Antwort auf diese Frage zu finden, vergleichen wir den Kontext der Bundestagswahl 2002 mit den zurückliegenden Bundestagswahlen. Aus dem Längsschnittvergleich versuchen wir Rückschlüsse auf den substanziellen Einfluss von strategischem Stimmensplitting im Sinne einer Koalitionswahl auf das Wahlergebnis gerade der kleinen Parteien zu ziehen. Um unsere Forschungsfrage zu beantworten und substanzielle Schlüsse ziehen zu können, muss zuerst klar sein, in welcher Form und warum Stimmensplitting relevant sein kann, welche Rolle dabei Koalitionsabsprachen vor einer jeden Wahl spielen und, schließlich, welche alternativen Erklärungsmöglichkeiten die Literatur zum Thema Stimmensplitting und strategischem Wählen anzubieten hat. Nur wenn wir auch die Wirkung alternativer und zum Teil konkurrierender Hypothesen zulassen, können wir unserer Schlußfolgerungen sicher sein

Timing of therapy for latent tuberculosis infection among immigrants presenting to a U.S. public health clinic: a retrospective study

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>In the U.S. more than half of incident tuberculosis (TB) cases occur in immigrants. Current guidelines recommend screening and treatment for latent TB infection (LTBI) within 5 years of arrival to the U.S. This study evaluates the timing of LTBI therapy among immigrants presenting for care to a public health TB clinic.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Retrospective chart review of patients prescribed LTBI treatment based on medical records from Prince Georges County Health Department.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>1882 immigrants received LTBI therapy at Prince Georges County Health Department between 1999 and 2004. 417 of these patients were diagnosed with LTBI through contact investigations and were excluded from the analysis. Among the remaining 1465 individuals, median time from arrival to the U.S. until initiation of LTBI therapy was 5 months (range 0–42.4 years). 16% of all immigrants initiated therapy more than 5 years after arrival to the U.S. A logistic regression model using risks identified on univariate analysis revealed that referral for therapy by non-immigration proceedings was the strongest predictor of initiation of therapy more than 5 years after arrival to the U.S. Other factors associated with > 5 year U.S. residence prior to initiation of LTBI therapy included female gender (adjusted odds ratio (AOR) 1.8, 95% CI 1.2–2.6), age ≥ 35 (AOR = 4.1, 95% 2.5–6.6), and originating from Latin American and the Caribbean (AOR = 1.9, 95% CI 1.3–3.0).</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>Foreign-born individuals who are not referred for LTBI therapy through immigration proceedings are less likely to receive LTBI therapy within 5 years of arrival to the U.S. These data highlight the need to explore other mechanisms for timely LTBI screening beyond services provided by immigration.</p

The ischemic preconditioning effect of adenosine in patients with ischemic heart disease

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Introduction</p> <p><it>In vivo </it>and <it>in vitro </it>evidence suggests that adenosine and its agonists play key roles in the process of ischemic preconditioning. The effects of low-dose adenosine infusion on ischemic preconditioning have not been thoroughly studied in humans.</p> <p>Aims</p> <p>We hypothesised that a low-dose adenosine infusion could reduce the ischemic burden evoked by physical exercise and improve the regional left ventricular (LV) systolic function.</p> <p>Materials and methods</p> <p>We studied nine severely symptomatic male patients with severe coronary artery disease. Myocardial ischemia was induced by exercise on two separate occasions and quantified by Tissue Doppler Echocardiography. Prior to the exercise test, intravenous low-dose adenosine or placebo was infused over ten minutes according to a randomized, double blind, cross-over protocol. The LV walls were defined as ischemic if a reduction, no increment, or an increment of < 15% in peak systolic velocity (PSV) was observed during maximal exercise compared to the baseline values observed prior to placebo-infusion. Otherwise, the LV walls were defined as non-ischemic.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>PSV increased from baseline to maximal exercise in non-ischemic walls both during placebo (<it>P </it>= 0.0001) and low-dose adenosine infusion (<it>P </it>= 0.0009). However, in the ischemic walls, PSV increased only during low-dose adenosine infusion <it>(P </it>= 0.001), while no changes in PSV occurred during placebo infusion (<it>P </it>= NS).</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>Low-dose adenosine infusion reduced the ischemic burden and improved LV regional systolic function in the ischemic walls of patients with exercise-induced myocardial ischemia, confirming that adenosine is a potential preconditioning agent in humans.</p

Development of a Standardized Screening Rule for Tuberculosis in People Living with HIV in Resource-Constrained Settings: Individual Participant Data Meta-analysis of Observational Studies

Haileyesus Getahun and colleagues report the development of a simple, standardized tuberculosis (TB) screening rule for resource-constrained settings, to identify people living with HIV who need further investigation for TB disease

Diagnostic work-up and loss of tuberculosis suspects in Jogjakarta, Indonesia

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Early and accurate diagnosis of pulmonary tuberculosis (TB) is critical for successful TB control. To assist in the diagnosis of smear-negative pulmonary TB, the World Health Organisation (WHO) recommends the use of a diagnostic algorithm. Our study evaluated the implementation of the national tuberculosis programme's diagnostic algorithm in routine health care settings in Jogjakarta, Indonesia. The diagnostic algorithm is based on the WHO TB diagnostic algorithm, which had already been implemented in the health facilities.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>We prospectively documented the diagnostic work-up of all new tuberculosis suspects until a diagnosis was reached. We used clinical audit forms to record each step chronologically. Data on the patient's gender, age, symptoms, examinations (types, dates, and results), and final diagnosis were collected.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Information was recorded for 754 TB suspects; 43.5% of whom were lost during the diagnostic work-up in health centres, 0% in lung clinics. Among the TB suspects who completed diagnostic work-ups, 51.1% and 100.0% were diagnosed without following the national TB diagnostic algorithm in health centres and lung clinics, respectively. However, the work-up in the health centres and lung clinics generally conformed to international standards for tuberculosis care (ISTC). Diagnostic delays were significantly longer in health centres compared to lung clinics.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>The high rate of patients lost in health centres needs to be addressed through the implementation of TB suspect tracing and better programme supervision. The national TB algorithm needs to be revised and differentiated according to the level of care.</p

Semantic Knowledge Influences Prewired Hedonic Responses to Odors

Background Odor hedonic perception relies on decoding the physicochemical properties of odorant molecules and can be influenced in humans by semantic knowledge. The effect of semantic knowledge on such prewired hedonic processing over the life span has remained unclear. Methodology/Principal Findings The present study measured hedonic response to odors in different age groups (children, teenagers, young adults, and seniors) and found that children and seniors, two age groups characterized by either low level of (children) or weak access to (seniors) odor semantic knowledge, processed odor hedonics more on the basis of their physicochemical properties. In contrast, in teenagers and young adults, who show better levels of semantic odor representation, the role of physicochemical properties was less marked. Conclusions/Significance These findings demonstrate for the first time that the biological determinants that make an odor pleasant or unpleasant are more powerful at either end of the life span

Emergent Properties of Patch Shapes Affect Edge Permeability to Animals

Animal travel between habitat patches affects populations, communities and ecosystems. There are three levels of organization of edge properties, and each of these can affect animals. At the lowest level are the different habitats on each side of an edge, then there is the edge itself, and finally, at the highest level of organization, is the geometry or structure of the edge. This study used computer simulations to (1) find out whether effects of edge shapes on animal behavior can arise as emergent properties solely due to reactions to edges in general, without the animals reacting to the shapes of the edges, and to (2) generate predictions to allow field and experimental studies to test mechanisms of edge shape response. Individual animals were modeled traveling inside a habitat patch that had different kinds of edge shapes (convex, concave and straight). When animals responded edges of patches, this created an emergent property of responding to the shape of the edge. The response was mostly to absolute width of the shapes, and not the narrowness of them. When animals were attracted to edges, then they tended to collect in convexities and disperse from concavities, and the opposite happened when animals avoided edges. Most of the responses occurred within a distance of 40% of the perceptual range from the tip of the shapes. Predictions were produced for directionality at various locations and combinations of treatments, to be used for testing edge behavior mechanisms. These results suggest that edge shapes tend to either concentrate or disperse animals, simply because the animals are either attracted to or avoid edges, with an effect as great as 3 times the normal density. Thus edge shape could affect processes like pollination, seed predation and dispersal and predator abundance

Light-intensity physical activity and cardiometabolic biomarkers in US adolescents

BackgroundThe minimal physical activity intensity that would confer health benefits among adolescents is unknown. The purpose of this study was to examine the associations of accelerometer-derived light-intensity (split into low and high) physical activity, and moderate- to vigorous-intensity physical activity with cardiometabolic biomarkers in a large population-based sample.MethodsThe study is based on 1,731 adolescents, aged 12&ndash;19 years from the 2003/04 and 2005/06 National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey. Low light-intensity activity (100&ndash;799 counts/min), high light-intensity activity (800 counts/min to &lt;4 METs) and moderate- to vigorous-intensity activity (&ge;4 METs, Freedson age-specific equation) were accelerometer-derived. Cardiometabolic biomarkers, including waist circumference, systolic blood pressure, diastolic blood pressure, HDL-cholesterol, and C-reactive protein were measured. Triglycerides, LDL- cholesterol, insulin, glucose, and homeostatic model assessments of &beta;-cell function (HOMA-%B) and insulin sensitivity (HOMA-%S) were also measured in a fasting sub-sample (n=807).ResultsAdjusted for confounders, each additional hour/day of low light-intensity activity was associated with 0.59 (95% CI: 1.18&ndash;0.01) mmHG lower diastolic blood pressure. Each additional hour/day of high light-intensity activity was associated with 1.67 (2.94&ndash;0.39) mmHG lower diastolic blood pressure and 0.04 (0.001&ndash;0.07) mmol/L higher HDL-cholesterol. Each additional hour/day of moderate- to vigorous-intensity activity was associated with 3.54 (5.73&ndash;1.35) mmHG lower systolic blood pressure, 5.49 (1.11&ndash;9.77)% lower waist circumference, 25.87 (6.08&ndash;49.34)% lower insulin, and 16.18 (4.92&ndash;28.53)% higher HOMA-%S.ConclusionsTime spent in low light-intensity physical activity and high light-intensity physical activity had some favorable associations with biomarkers. Consistent with current physical activity recommendations for adolescents, moderate- to vigorous-intensity activity had favorable associations with many cardiometabolic biomarkers. While increasing MVPA should still be a public health priority, further studies are needed to identify dose-response relationships for light-intensity activity thresholds to inform future recommendations and interventions for adolescents.</div

A theoretical foundation for multi-scale regular vegetation patterns

Self-organized regular vegetation patterns are widespread and thought to mediate ecosystem functions such as productivity and robustness, but the mechanisms underlying their origin and maintenance remain disputed. Particularly controversial are landscapes of overdispersed (evenly spaced) elements, such as North American Mima mounds, Brazilian murundus, South African heuweltjies, and, famously, Namibian fairy circles. Two competing hypotheses are currently debated. On the one hand, models of scale-dependent feedbacks, whereby plants facilitate neighbours while competing with distant individuals, can reproduce various regular patterns identified in satellite imagery. Owing to deep theoretical roots and apparent generality, scale-dependent feedbacks are widely viewed as a unifying and near-universal principle of regular-pattern formation despite scant empirical evidence. On the other hand, many overdispersed vegetation patterns worldwide have been attributed to subterranean ecosystem engineers such as termites, ants, and rodents. Although potentially consistent with territorial competition, this interpretation has been challenged theoretically and empirically and (unlike scale-dependent feedbacks) lacks a unifying dynamical theory, fuelling scepticism about its plausibility and generality. Here we provide a general theoretical foundation for self-organization of social-insect colonies, validated using data from four continents, which demonstrates that intraspecific competition between territorial animals can generate the large-scale hexagonal regularity of these patterns. However, this mechanism is not mutually exclusive with scale-dependent feedbacks. Using Namib Desert fairy circles as a case study, we present field data showing that these landscapes exhibit multi-scale patterning-previously undocumented in this system-that cannot be explained by either mechanism in isolation. These multi-scale patterns and other emergent properties, such as enhanced resistance to and recovery from drought, instead arise from dynamic interactions in our theoretical framework, which couples both mechanisms. The potentially global extent of animal-induced regularity in vegetation-which can modulate other patterning processes in functionally important ways-emphasizes the need to integrate multiple mechanisms of ecological self-organization