“Hot Hand” on Strike: Bowling Data Indicates Correlation to Recent Past Results, Not Causality

Recently, the “hot hand” phenomenon regained interest due to the availability and accessibility of large scale data sets from the world of sports. In support of common wisdom and in contrast to the original conclusions of the seminal paper about this phenomenon by Gilovich, Vallone and Tversky in 1985, solid evidences were supplied in favor of the existence of this phenomenon in different kinds of data. This came after almost three decades of ongoing debates whether the “hot hand” phenomenon in sport is real or just a mis-perception of human subjects of completely random patterns present in reality. However, although this phenomenon was shown to exist in different sports data including basketball free throws and bowling strike rates, a somehow deeper question remained unanswered: are these non random patterns results of causal, short term, feedback mechanisms or simply time fluctuations of athletes performance. In this paper, we analyze large amounts of data from the Professional Bowling Association(PBA). We studied the results of the top 100 players in terms of the number of available records (summed into more than 450,000 frames). By using permutation approach and dividing the analysis into different aggregation levels we were able to supply evidence for the existence of the “hot hand” phenomenon in the data, in agreement with previous studies. Moreover, by using this approach, we were able to demonstrate that there are, indeed, significant fluctuations from game to game for the same player but there is no clustering of successes (strikes) and failures (non strikes) within each game. Thus we were lead to the conclusion that bowling results show correlation to recent past results but they are not influenced by them in a causal manner

Galectin-9 Controls CD40 Signaling through a Tim-3 Independent Mechanism and Redirects the Cytokine Profile of Pathogenic T Cells in Autoimmunity

While it has long been understood that CD40 plays a critical role in the etiology of autoimmunity, glycobiology is emerging as an important contributor. CD40 signaling is also gaining further interest in transplantation and cancer therapies. Work on CD40 signaling has focused on signaling outcomes and blocking of its ligand, CD154, while little is known about the actual receptor itself and its control. We demonstrated that CD40 is in fact several receptors occurring as constellations of differentially glycosylated forms of the protein that can sometimes form hybrid receptors with other proteins. An enticing area of autoimmunity is differential glycosylation of immune molecules leading to altered signaling. Galectins interact with carbohydrates on proteins to effect such signaling alterations. Studying autoimmune prone NOD and non-autoimmune BALB/c mice, here we reveal that in-vivo CD40 signals alter the glycosylation status of non-autoimmune derived CD4 T cells to resemble that of autoimmune derived CD4 T cells. Galectin-9 interacts with CD40 and, at higher concentrations, prevents CD40 induced proliferative responses of CD4loCD40+ effector T cells and induces cell death through a Tim-3 independent mechanism. Interestingly, galectin-9, at lower concentrations, alters the surface expression of CD3, CD4, and TCR, regulating access to those molecules and thereby redirects the inflammatory cytokine phenotype and CD3 induced proliferation of autoimmune CD4loCD40+ T cells. Understanding the dynamics of the CD40 receptor(s) and the impact of glycosylation status in immunity will gain insight into how to maintain useful CD40 signals while shutting down detrimental ones

Language Structure Is Partly Determined by Social Structure

BACKGROUND: Languages differ greatly both in their syntactic and morphological systems and in the social environments in which they exist. We challenge the view that language grammars are unrelated to social environments in which they are learned and used. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: We conducted a statistical analysis of >2,000 languages using a combination of demographic sources and the World Atlas of Language Structures--a database of structural language properties. We found strong relationships between linguistic factors related to morphological complexity, and demographic/socio-historical factors such as the number of language users, geographic spread, and degree of language contact. The analyses suggest that languages spoken by large groups have simpler inflectional morphology than languages spoken by smaller groups as measured on a variety of factors such as case systems and complexity of conjugations. Additionally, languages spoken by large groups are much more likely to use lexical strategies in place of inflectional morphology to encode evidentiality, negation, aspect, and possession. Our findings indicate that just as biological organisms are shaped by ecological niches, language structures appear to adapt to the environment (niche) in which they are being learned and used. As adults learn a language, features that are difficult for them to acquire, are less likely to be passed on to subsequent learners. Languages used for communication in large groups that include adult learners appear to have been subjected to such selection. Conversely, the morphological complexity common to languages used in small groups increases redundancy which may facilitate language learning by infants. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: We hypothesize that language structures are subjected to different evolutionary pressures in different social environments. Just as biological organisms are shaped by ecological niches, language structures appear to adapt to the environment (niche) in which they are being learned and used. The proposed Linguistic Niche Hypothesis has implications for answering the broad question of why languages differ in the way they do and makes empirical predictions regarding language acquisition capacities of children versus adults

Who Cares About Being Gentle? The Impact of Social Identity and the Gender of One’s Friends on Children’s Display of Same-Gender Favoritism

This research assessed children’s same-gender favoritism by examining whether children value traits descriptive of their own gender more than traits descriptive of the other gender. We also investigated whether children’s proportion of same-gender friends relates to their same-gender favoritism. Eighty-one third and fourth grade children from the Midwest and West Coast of the U.S. rated how well 19 personality traits describe boys and girls, and how important each trait is for their gender to possess. Results replicate and extend past trait assignment research by demonstrating that both genders valued same-gender traits significantly more than other-gender traits. Results also indicated that boys with many same-gender friends derogated feminine-stereotyped traits, which has implications for research on masculinity norms within male-dominated peer groups

Best practice for motor imagery: a systematic literature review on motor imagery training elements in five different disciplines

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>The literature suggests a beneficial effect of motor imagery (MI) if combined with physical practice, but detailed descriptions of MI training session (MITS) elements and temporal parameters are lacking. The aim of this review was to identify the characteristics of a successful MITS and compare these for different disciplines, MI session types, task focus, age, gender and MI modification during intervention.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>An extended systematic literature search using 24 databases was performed for five disciplines: Education, Medicine, Music, Psychology and Sports. References that described an MI intervention that focused on motor skills, performance or strength improvement were included. Information describing 17 MITS elements was extracted based on the PETTLEP (physical, environment, timing, task, learning, emotion, perspective) approach. Seven elements describing the MITS temporal parameters were calculated: study duration, intervention duration, MITS duration, total MITS count, MITS per week, MI trials per MITS and total MI training time.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Both independent reviewers found 96% congruity, which was tested on a random sample of 20% of all references. After selection, 133 studies reporting 141 MI interventions were included. The locations of the MITS and position of the participants during MI were task-specific. Participants received acoustic detailed MI instructions, which were mostly standardised and live. During MI practice, participants kept their eyes closed. MI training was performed from an internal perspective with a kinaesthetic mode. Changes in MI content, duration and dosage were reported in 31 MI interventions. Familiarisation sessions before the start of the MI intervention were mentioned in 17 reports. MI interventions focused with decreasing relevance on motor-, cognitive- and strength-focused tasks. Average study intervention lasted 34 days, with participants practicing MI on average three times per week for 17 minutes, with 34 MI trials. Average total MI time was 178 minutes including 13 MITS. Reporting rate varied between 25.5% and 95.5%.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>MITS elements of successful interventions were individual, supervised and non-directed sessions, added after physical practice. Successful design characteristics were dominant in the Psychology literature, in interventions focusing on motor and strength-related tasks, in interventions with participants aged 20 to 29 years old, and in MI interventions including participants of both genders. Systematic searching of the MI literature was constrained by the lack of a defined MeSH term.</p

A saturated map of common genetic variants associated with human height

Common single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) are predicted to collectively explain 40-50% of phenotypic variation in human height, but identifying the specific variants and associated regions requires huge sample sizes(1). Here, using data from a genome-wide association study of 5.4 million individuals of diverse ancestries, we show that 12,111 independent SNPs that are significantly associated with height account for nearly all of the common SNP-based heritability. These SNPs are clustered within 7,209 non-overlapping genomic segments with a mean size of around 90 kb, covering about 21% of the genome. The density of independent associations varies across the genome and the regions of increased density are enriched for biologically relevant genes. In out-of-sample estimation and prediction, the 12,111 SNPs (or all SNPs in the HapMap 3 panel(2)) account for 40% (45%) of phenotypic variance in populations of European ancestry but only around 10-20% (14-24%) in populations of other ancestries. Effect sizes, associated regions and gene prioritization are similar across ancestries, indicating that reduced prediction accuracy is likely to be explained by linkage disequilibrium and differences in allele frequency within associated regions. Finally, we show that the relevant biological pathways are detectable with smaller sample sizes than are needed to implicate causal genes and variants. Overall, this study provides a comprehensive map of specific genomic regions that contain the vast majority of common height-associated variants. Although this map is saturated for populations of European ancestry, further research is needed to achieve equivalent saturation in other ancestries.A large genome-wide association study of more than 5 million individuals reveals that 12,111 single-nucleotide polymorphisms account for nearly all the heritability of height attributable to common genetic variants

A saturated map of common genetic variants associated with human height.

Common single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) are predicted to collectively explain 40-50% of phenotypic variation in human height, but identifying the specific variants and associated regions requires huge sample sizes1. Here, using data from a genome-wide association study of 5.4 million individuals of diverse ancestries, we show that 12,111 independent SNPs that are significantly associated with height account for nearly all of the common SNP-based heritability. These SNPs are clustered within 7,209 non-overlapping genomic segments with a mean size of around 90 kb, covering about 21% of the genome. The density of independent associations varies across the genome and the regions of increased density are enriched for biologically relevant genes. In out-of-sample estimation and prediction, the 12,111 SNPs (or all SNPs in the HapMap 3 panel2) account for 40% (45%) of phenotypic variance in populations of European ancestry but only around 10-20% (14-24%) in populations of other ancestries. Effect sizes, associated regions and gene prioritization are similar across ancestries, indicating that reduced prediction accuracy is likely to be explained by linkage disequilibrium and differences in allele frequency within associated regions. Finally, we show that the relevant biological pathways are detectable with smaller sample sizes than are needed to implicate causal genes and variants. Overall, this study provides a comprehensive map of specific genomic regions that contain the vast majority of common height-associated variants. Although this map is saturated for populations of European ancestry, further research is needed to achieve equivalent saturation in other ancestries

General and abdominal adiposity and hypertension in eight world regions: a pooled analysis of 837 population-based studies with 7·5 million participants

Background Adiposity can be measured using BMI (which is based on weight and height) as well as indices of abdominal adiposity. We examined the association between BMI and waist-to-height ratio (WHtR) within and across populations of different world regions and quantified how well these two metrics discriminate between people with and without hypertension. Methods We used data from studies carried out from 1990 to 2023 on BMI, WHtR and hypertension in people aged 20–64 years in representative samples of the general population in eight world regions. We graphically compared the regional distributions of BMI and WHtR, and calculated Pearson’s correlation coefficients between BMI and WHtR within each region. We used mixed-effects linear regression to estimate the extent to which WHtR varies across regions at the same BMI. We graphically examined the prevalence of hypertension and the distribution of people who have hypertension both in relation to BMI and WHtR, and we assessed how closely BMI and WHtR discriminate between participants with and without hypertension using C-statistic and net reclassification improvement (NRI). Findings The correlation between BMI and WHtR ranged from 0·76 to 0·89 within different regions. After adjusting for age and BMI, mean WHtR was highest in south Asia for both sexes, followed by Latin America and the Caribbean and the region of central Asia, Middle East and north Africa. Mean WHtR was lowest in central and eastern Europe for both sexes, in the high-income western region for women, and in Oceania for men. Conversely, to achieve an equivalent WHtR, the BMI of the population of south Asia would need to be, on average, 2·79 kg/m² (95% CI 2·31–3·28) lower for women and 1·28 kg/m² (1·02–1·54) lower for men than in the high-income western region. In every region, hypertension prevalence increased with both BMI and WHtR. Models with either of these two adiposity metrics had virtually identical C-statistics and NRIs for every region and sex, with C-statistics ranging from 0·72 to 0·81 and NRIs ranging from 0·34 to 0·57 in different region and sex combinations. When both BMI and WHtR were used, performance improved only slightly compared with using either adiposity measure alone. Interpretation BMI can distinguish young and middle-aged adults with higher versus lower amounts of abdominal adiposity with moderate-to-high accuracy, and both BMI and WHtR distinguish people with or without hypertension. However, at the same BMI level, people in south Asia, Latin America and the Caribbean, and the region of central Asia, Middle East and north Africa, have higher WHtR than in the other regions

Development of Perspective Taking in Relation to Age, Education, and the Presence of Community Features Associated With Industrialization: A Four-Culture Study

This study examined responses to questions oriented toward revealing the development of perspective taking. The sample comprised 180 three- to nine-year-old children in four traditional communities (in Belize, Kenya, Nepal, and American Samoa). Ten scenarios that asked the children about knowledge of handedness and also what was visible from their own and from another person's perspective were used. In all groups, the proportion of correct answers improved with age. Degree of industrialization-which had predicted better cognitive performance in other testing with these same children-was also a predictor of perspective taking on some of the items. Discussion includes possible interpretation of the results. © 2013 SAGE Publications