Cancer mortality in the United Kingdom: projections to the year 2025

The purpose of this study was to project mortality rates in the United Kingdom for the period 2006–2025 for 21 major cancers on the basis of the observed trends in mortality rates during 1971–2005, and to estimate the implication in terms of expected deaths. Age-period-cohort models were applied to official statistics. The projected decrease in age-standardised mortality rates for all cancers from 2003 to 2023 was 17% in men and 16% in women. Future mortality rates were projected to decline for most cancer sites. In men, there were small projected increases in mortality rates from cancers of the oral cavity, oesophagus and melanoma, with a larger projected increase (14% over 20 years) in mortality of liver cancer. In women, the only projected increase (18%) was for corpus uteri. The numbers of deaths will increase for most cancers, with a 30% increase in all cancers projected for men and a 12% increase projected for women. Mortality rates from cancer as a whole have been falling in the United Kingdom since 1990, and this decline was projected to continue into the future as well as the declining rates in both sexes for most cancers. Actual numbers of deaths will increase for most cancers

Task-oriented evaluation of electronic medical records systems: development and validation of a questionnaire for physicians

BACKGROUND: Evaluation is a challenging but necessary part of the development cycle of clinical information systems like the electronic medical records (EMR) system. It is believed that such evaluations should include multiple perspectives, be comparative and employ both qualitative and quantitative methods. Self-administered questionnaires are frequently used as a quantitative evaluation method in medical informatics, but very few validated questionnaires address clinical use of EMR systems. METHODS: We have developed a task-oriented questionnaire for evaluating EMR systems from the clinician's perspective. The key feature of the questionnaire is a list of 24 general clinical tasks. It is applicable to physicians of most specialties and covers essential parts of their information-oriented work. The task list appears in two separate sections, about EMR use and task performance using the EMR, respectively. By combining these sections, the evaluator may estimate the potential impact of the EMR system on health care delivery. The results may also be compared across time, site or vendor. This paper describes the development, performance and validation of the questionnaire. Its performance is shown in two demonstration studies (n = 219 and 80). Its content is validated in an interview study (n = 10), and its reliability is investigated in a test-retest study (n = 37) and a scaling study (n = 31). RESULTS: In the interviews, the physicians found the general clinical tasks in the questionnaire relevant and comprehensible. The tasks were interpreted concordant to their definitions. However, the physicians found questions about tasks not explicitly or only partially supported by the EMR systems difficult to answer. The two demonstration studies provided unambiguous results and low percentages of missing responses. In addition, criterion validity was demonstrated for a majority of task-oriented questions. Their test-retest reliability was generally high, and the non-standard scale was found symmetric and ordinal. CONCLUSION: This questionnaire is relevant for clinical work and EMR systems, provides reliable and interpretable results, and may be used as part of any evaluation effort involving the clinician's perspective of an EMR system

Review of epidemiologic data on the debate over smokeless tobacco's role in harm reduction

Some tobacco researchers have argued that the European Union should remove its ban on a form of low-nitrosamine smokeless tobacco referred to as Swedish 'snus'. This argument has developed in to an international debate over the use of smokeless tobacco as a measure of harm reduction for smokers. Leading authorities in the USA have firmly stated that there is no safe tobacco - a message which does not allow for any discussion of comparative tobacco risks. This commentary is intended to review the origin of the controversy over Swedish 'snus', to examine briefly the meta-analysis on cancer risks by Peter Lee and Jan Hamling (published in July in BMC Medicine) and to discuss the anticipated direction of the debate on tobacco-harm reduction in the USA. We anticipate that much of the debate will shift from the discussion of epidemiologic data to the discussion of the marketing, health communication and economics of smokeless tobacco. While the Food and Drug Administration's newly approved authority over tobacco will undoubtedly affect the smokeless products, it may not be the sole determinant of harm reduction's fate in the USA

Retrospective model-based inference guides model-free credit assignment

An extensive reinforcement learning literature shows that organisms assign credit efficiently, even under conditions of state uncertainty. However, little is known about credit-assignment when state uncertainty is subsequently resolved. Here, we address this problem within the framework of an interaction between model-free (MF) and model-based (MB) control systems. We present and support experimentally a theory of MB retrospective-inference. Within this framework, a MB system resolves uncertainty that prevailed when actions were taken thus guiding an MF credit-assignment. Using a task in which there was initial uncertainty about the lotteries that were chosen, we found that when participants’ momentary uncertainty about which lottery had generated an outcome was resolved by provision of subsequent information, participants preferentially assigned credit within a MF system to the lottery they retrospectively inferred was responsible for this outcome. These findings extend our knowledge about the range of MB functions and the scope of system interactions

Cancer mortality in a cohort of asbestos textile workers

A cohort of 889 men and 1077 women employed for at least 1 month between 1946 and 1984 by a former Italian leading asbestos (mainly textile) company, characterised by extremely heavy exposures often for short durations, was followed up to 1996, for a total of 53 024 person-years of observation. Employment data were obtained from factory personnel records, while vital status and causes of death were ascertained through municipality registers and local health units. We observed 222 cancer deaths compared with 116.4 expected (standardized mortality ratio, SMR=191). The highest ratios were found for pleural (SMR=4105), peritoneal (SMR=1817) and lung (SMR=282) cancers. We observed direct relationships with duration of employment for lung and peritoneal cancer, and with time since first employment for lung cancer and mesothelioma. Pleural cancer risk was independent from duration (SMR=3428 for employment <1 year, 7659 for 1–4 years, 2979 for 5–9 years and 2130 for ⩾10 years). Corresponding SMRs for lung cancer were 139, 251, 233 and 531. Nonsignificantly increased ratios were found for ovarian (SMR=261), laryngeal (SMR=238) and oro-pharyngeal (SMR=226) cancers. This study confirms and further quantifies the central role of latency in pleural mesothelioma and of cumulative exposure in lung cancer

Do cravings predict smoking cessation in smokers calling a national quit line: secondary analyses from a randomised trial for the utility of ‘urges to smoke’ measures

BACKGROUND: Single-item urges to smoke measures have been contemplated as important measures of nicotine dependence This study aimed to prospectively determine the relationships between measures of craving to smoke and smoking cessation, and compare their ability to predict cessation with the Heaviness of Smoking Index, an established measure of nicotine dependence. METHODS: We conducted a secondary analysis of data from the randomised controlled PORTSSS trial. Measures of nicotine dependence, ascertained before making a quit attempt, were the HSI, frequency of urges to smoke (FUTS) and strength of urges to smoke (SUTS). Self-reported abstinence at six months after quitting was the primary outcome measure. Multivariate logistic regression and Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) analysis were used to assess associations and abilities of the nicotine dependence measures to predict smoking cessation. RESULTS: Of 2,535 participants, 53.5% were female; the median (Interquartile range) age was 38 (28–50) years. Both FUTS and HSI were inversely associated with abstinence six months after quitting; for each point increase in HSI score, participants were 16% less likely to have stopped smoking (OR 0.84, 95% C.I 0.78-0.89, p < 0.0001). Compared to participants with the lowest possible FUTS scores, those with greater scores had generally lower odds of cessation (p across frequency of urges categories=0.0026). SUTS was not associated with smoking cessation. ROC analysis suggested the HSI and FUTS had similar predictive validity for cessation. CONCLUSIONS: Higher FUTS and HSI scores were inversely associated with successful smoking cessation six months after quit attempts began and both had similar validity for predicting cessation. ELECTRONIC SUPPLEMENTARY MATERIAL: The online version of this article (doi:10.1186/s13011-015-0011-8) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users

Treating tobacco dependence in older adults: a survey of primary care clinicians’ knowledge, attitudes, and practice

BACKGROUND: The benefits of smoking cessation among older people are well documented. Despite this, evidence suggests that older smokers are rarely engaged in smoking cessation efforts, and that existing tobacco dependence treatments require further tailoring to the specific needs of older smokers. This study assesses the knowledge, attitudes, and clinical practice of primary care clinicians in relation to addressing tobacco dependence among older people. METHODS: A cross-sectional survey of 427 NHS primary care clinicians in a large English city was conducted using modified version of a previously validated questionnaire. RESULTS: One hundred and seventy one clinicians (40 % response rate) completed the survey. While the majority (90.0 %) of respondents reported enquiring regularly about older patients’ smoking status, just over half (59.1 %) reported providing older patients with smoking cessation support. A lack of awareness in relation to the prevalence and impact of smoking in later life were apparent: e.g. only 47 % of respondents were aware of that approximately 10 life years are lost due to smoking related disease, and only 59 % knew that smoking can reduce the effectiveness of medication prescribed for conditions common in later life. Self-reported attendance at smoking-related training was significantly associated with proactive clinical practice. CONCLUSIONS: There is a need to improve clinicians’ knowledge, in relation to smoking and smoking cessation in older patients and to build clinician confidence in seizing teachable moments. ELECTRONIC SUPPLEMENTARY MATERIAL: The online version of this article (doi:10.1186/s12875-015-0317-7) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users