Widening mismatch between UK seafood production and consumer demand: a 120-year perspective

This is the final version. Available from Springer via the DOI in this record. Data availability: The datasets generated and used for the UK seafood production and trade analyses and to produce Figs. 1–6 are available on GitHub at https://github.com/lukeo jharrison/UKSeafoodProductionConsumerDemandPaper (Harrison et al. 2023).Developed countries are increasingly dependent on international trade to meet seafood requirements, which has important social, environmental, and economic implications. After becoming an independent coastal state following Brexit, the UK faces increased trade barriers and changes in seafood availability and cost. We compiled a long-term (120-year) dataset of UK seafood production (landings and aquaculture), imports, and exports, and assessed the influence of policy change and consumer preference on domestic production and consumption. In the early twentieth century, distant-water fisheries met an increasing demand for large, flaky fish such as cod and haddock that are more abundant in northerly waters. Accordingly, from 1900 to 1975, the UK fleet supplied almost 90% of these fish. However, policy changes in the mid-1970s such as the widespread establishment of Exclusive Economic Zones and the UK joining the European Union resulted in large declines in distant-water fisheries and a growing mismatch between seafood production versus consumption in the UK. While in 1975, UK landings and aquaculture accounted for 89% of seafood consumed by the British public, by 2019 this was only 40%. The combination of policy changes and staunch consumer preferences for non-local species has resulted in today’s situation, where the vast majority of seafood consumed in the UK is imported, and most seafood produced domestically is exported. There are also health considerations. The UK public currently consumes 31% less seafood than is recommended by government guidelines, and even if local species were more popular, total domestic production would still be 73% below recommended levels. In the face of climate change, global overfishing and potentially restrictive trade barriers, promoting locally sourced seafood and non-seafood alternatives would be prudent to help meet national food security demands, and health and environmental targets.UK Research and Innovatio

‘20 tins of Stella for a fiver’: The making of class through Labour and Coalition government alcohol policy

Alcohol use in the UK has been a key concern to both the Labour and Coalition governments, and commands considerable attention in the media and academic discussions. This article analyses how recent government policy discussions have defined particular forms of drinking as problematic, and how these definitions and associated policy initiatives can be seen as part of a wider symbolic economy through which people come to be valued differently, incorporating ideas of economic, cultural and social capital. Therefore, I argue that government policies and discussions of drinking are a key way in which class is constituted in contemporary Britain

Multiplexed, High Density Electrophysiology with Nanofabricated Neural Probes

Extracellular electrode arrays can reveal the neuronal network correlates of behavior with single-cell, single-spike, and sub-millisecond resolution. However, implantable electrodes are inherently invasive, and efforts to scale up the number and density of recording sites must compromise on device size in order to connect the electrodes. Here, we report on silicon-based neural probes employing nanofabricated, high-density electrical leads. Furthermore, we address the challenge of reading out multichannel data with an application-specific integrated circuit (ASIC) performing signal amplification, band-pass filtering, and multiplexing functions. We demonstrate high spatial resolution extracellular measurements with a fully integrated, low noise 64-channel system weighing just 330 mg. The on-chip multiplexers make possible recordings with substantially fewer external wires than the number of input channels. By combining nanofabricated probes with ASICs we have implemented a system for performing large-scale, high-density electrophysiology in small, freely behaving animals that is both minimally invasive and highly scalable

Changes in in-hospital mortality in the first wave of COVID-19: a multicentre prospective observational cohort study using the WHO Clinical Characterisation Protocol UK

BACKGROUND: Mortality rates in hospitalised patients with COVID-19 in the UK appeared to decline during the first wave of the pandemic. We aimed to quantify potential drivers of this change and identify groups of patients who remain at high risk of dying in hospital. METHODS: In this multicentre prospective observational cohort study, the International Severe Acute Respiratory and Emerging Infections Consortium WHO Clinical Characterisation Protocol UK recruited a prospective cohort of patients with COVID-19 admitted to 247 acute hospitals in England, Scotland, and Wales during the first wave of the pandemic (between March 9 and Aug 2, 2020). We included all patients aged 18 years and older with clinical signs and symptoms of COVID-19 or confirmed COVID-19 (by RT-PCR test) from assumed community-acquired infection. We did a three-way decomposition mediation analysis using natural effects models to explore associations between week of admission and in-hospital mortality, adjusting for confounders (demographics, comorbidities, and severity of illness) and quantifying potential mediators (level of respiratory support and steroid treatment). The primary outcome was weekly in-hospital mortality at 28 days, defined as the proportion of patients who had died within 28 days of admission of all patients admitted in the observed week, and it was assessed in all patients with an outcome. This study is registered with the ISRCTN Registry, ISRCTN66726260. FINDINGS: Between March 9, and Aug 2, 2020, we recruited 80 713 patients, of whom 63 972 were eligible and included in the study. Unadjusted weekly in-hospital mortality declined from 32·3% (95% CI 31·8-32·7) in March 9 to April 26, 2020, to 16·4% (15·0-17·8) in June 15 to Aug 2, 2020. Reductions in mortality were observed in all age groups, in all ethnic groups, for both sexes, and in patients with and without comorbidities. After adjustment, there was a 32% reduction in the risk of mortality per 7-week period (odds ratio [OR] 0·68 [95% CI 0·65-0·71]). The higher proportions of patients with severe disease and comorbidities earlier in the first wave (March and April) than in June and July accounted for 10·2% of this reduction. The use of respiratory support changed during the first wave, with gradually increased use of non-invasive ventilation over the first wave. Changes in respiratory support and use of steroids accounted for 22·2%, OR 0·95 (0·94-0·95) of the reduction in in-hospital mortality. INTERPRETATION: The reduction in in-hospital mortality in patients with COVID-19 during the first wave in the UK was partly accounted for by changes in the case-mix and illness severity. A significant reduction in in-hospital mortality was associated with differences in respiratory support and critical care use, which could partly reflect accrual of clinical knowledge. The remaining improvement in in-hospital mortality is not explained by these factors, and could be associated with changes in community behaviour, inoculum dose, and hospital capacity strain. FUNDING: National Institute for Health Research and the Medical Research Council

Survival of dental implants in patients with oral cancer treated by surgery and radiotherapy: a retrospective study

BACKGROUND: The aim of this retrospective study was to evaluate the survival of dental implants placed after ablative surgery, in patients affected by oral cancer treated with or without radiotherapy. METHODS: We collected data for 34 subjects (22 females, 12 males; mean age: 51 ± 19) with malignant oral tumors who had been treated with ablative surgery and received dental implant rehabilitation between 2007 and 2012. Postoperative radiation therapy (less than 50 Gy) was delivered before implant placement in 12 patients. A total of 144 titanium implants were placed, at a minimum interval of 12 months, in irradiated and non-irradiated residual bone. RESULTS: Implant loss was dependent on the position and location of the implants (P = 0.05-0.1). Moreover, implant survival was dependent on whether the patient had received radiotherapy. This result was highly statistically significant (P < 0.01). Whether the implant was loaded is another highly significant (P < 0.01) factor determinin

Patterns of analgesic use, pain and self-efficacy: a cross-sectional study of patients attending a hospital rheumatology clinic

Background: Many people attending rheumatology clinics use analgesics and non-steroidal anti-inflammatories for persistent musculoskeletal pain. Guidelines for pain management recommend regular and pre-emptive use of analgesics to reduce the impact of pain. Clinical experience indicates that analgesics are often not used in this way. Studies exploring use of analgesics in arthritis have historically measured adherence to such medication. Here we examine patterns of analgesic use and their relationships to pain, self-efficacy and demographic factors. Methods: Consecutive patients were approached in a hospital rheumatology out-patient clinic. Pattern of analgesic use was assessed by response to statements such as 'I always take my tablets every day.' Pain and self-efficacy (SE) were measured using the Western Ontario and McMaster Universities Osteoarthritis Index (WOMAC) and Arthritis Self-Efficacy Scale (ASES). Influence of factors on pain level and regularity of analgesic use were investigated using linear regression. Differences in pain between those agreeing and disagreeing with statements regarding analgesic use were assessed using t-tests. Results: 218 patients (85% of attendees) completed the study. Six (2.8%) patients reported no current pain, 26 (12.3%) slight, 100 (47.4%) moderate, 62 (29.4%) severe and 17 (8.1%) extreme pain. In multiple linear regression self efficacy and regularity of analgesic use were significant (p < 0.01) with lower self efficacy and more regular use of analgesics associated with more pain. Low SE was associated with greater pain: 40 (41.7%) people with low SE reported severe pain versus 22 (18.3%) people with high SE, p < 0.001. Patients in greater pain were significantly more likely to take analgesics regularly; 13 (77%) of those in extreme pain reported always taking their analgesics every day, versus 9 (35%) in slight pain. Many patients, including 46% of those in severe pain, adjusted analgesic use to current pain level. In simple linear regression, pain was the only variable significantly associated with regularity of analgesic use: higher levels of pain corresponded to more regular analgesic use (p = 0.003). Conclusion: Our study confirms that there is a strong inverse relationship between self-efficacy and pain severity. Analgesics are often used irregularly by people with arthritis, including some reporting severe pain

Dynamic modeling of mean-reverting spreads for statistical arbitrage

Statistical arbitrage strategies, such as pairs trading and its generalizations, rely on the construction of mean-reverting spreads enjoying a certain degree of predictability. Gaussian linear state-space processes have recently been proposed as a model for such spreads under the assumption that the observed process is a noisy realization of some hidden states. Real-time estimation of the unobserved spread process can reveal temporary market inefficiencies which can then be exploited to generate excess returns. Building on previous work, we embrace the state-space framework for modeling spread processes and extend this methodology along three different directions. First, we introduce time-dependency in the model parameters, which allows for quick adaptation to changes in the data generating process. Second, we provide an on-line estimation algorithm that can be constantly run in real-time. Being computationally fast, the algorithm is particularly suitable for building aggressive trading strategies based on high-frequency data and may be used as a monitoring device for mean-reversion. Finally, our framework naturally provides informative uncertainty measures of all the estimated parameters. Experimental results based on Monte Carlo simulations and historical equity data are discussed, including a co-integration relationship involving two exchange-traded funds.Comment: 34 pages, 6 figures. Submitte

Evolution of Fruit Traits in Ficus Subgenus Sycomorus (Moraceae): To What Extent Do Frugivores Determine Seed Dispersal Mode?

Fig trees are a ubiquitous component of tropical rain forests and exhibit an enormous diversity of ecologies. Focusing on Ficus subgenus Sycomorus, a phenotypically diverse and ecologically important Old World lineage, we examined the evolution of fruit traits using a molecular phylogeny constructed using 5 kilobases of DNA sequence data from 63 species (50% of global diversity). In particular, we ask whether patterns of trait correlations are consistent with dispersal agents as the primary selective force shaping morphological diversity or if other ecological factors may provide a better explanation? Fig colour, size and placement (axial, cauliflorous, or geocarpic) were all highly evolutionarily liable, and the same fruit traits have evolved in different biogeographic regions with substantially different dispersal agents. After controlling for phylogenetic autocorrelation, we found that fig colour and size were significantly associated with fig placement and plant-life history traits (maximum plant height and leaf area, respectively). However, contrary to prevailing assumptions, fig placement correlated poorly with known dispersal agents and appears more likely determined by other factors, such as flowering phenology, nutrient economy, and habitat preference. Thus, plant life-history, both directly and through its influence on fig placement, appears to have played a prominent role in determining fruit traits in these figs

Reciprocity as a foundation of financial economics

This paper argues that the subsistence of the fundamental theorem of contemporary financial mathematics is the ethical concept ‘reciprocity’. The argument is based on identifying an equivalence between the contemporary, and ostensibly ‘value neutral’, Fundamental Theory of Asset Pricing with theories of mathematical probability that emerged in the seventeenth century in the context of the ethical assessment of commercial contracts in a framework of Aristotelian ethics. This observation, the main claim of the paper, is justified on the basis of results from the Ultimatum Game and is analysed within a framework of Pragmatic philosophy. The analysis leads to the explanatory hypothesis that markets are centres of communicative action with reciprocity as a rule of discourse. The purpose of the paper is to reorientate financial economics to emphasise the objectives of cooperation and social cohesion and to this end, we offer specific policy advice

Cognitive Remediation in Bipolar (CRiB2): study protocol for a randomised controlled trial assessing efficacy and mechanisms of cognitive remediation therapy compared to treatment as usual

\ua9 2023, The Author(s).Background: A substantial proportion of people with bipolar disorder (BD) experience persistent cognitive difficulties associated with impairments in psychosocial functioning and a poorer disorder course. Emerging evidence suggests that cognitive remediation (CR), a psychological intervention with established efficacy in people with schizophrenia, can also benefit people with BD. Following a proof-of-concept trial showing that CR is feasible and potentially beneficial for people with BD, we are conducting an adequately powered trial in euthymic people with BD to 1) determine whether an individual, therapist-supported, computerised CR can reduce cognitive difficulties and improve functional outcomes; and 2) explore how CR exerts its effects. Methods: CRiB2 is a two-arm, assessor-blind, multi-site, randomised controlled trial (RCT) comparing CR to treatment-as-usual (TAU). Participants are people with a diagnosis of BD, aged between 18 and 65, with no neurological or current substance use disorder, and currently euthymic. 250 participants will be recruited through primary, secondary, tertiary care, and the community. Participants will be block-randomised (1:1 ratio, stratified by site) to continue with their usual care (TAU) or receive a 12-week course of therapy and usual care (CR + TAU). The intervention comprises one-on-one CR sessions with a therapist supplemented with independent cognitive training for 30–40 h in total. Outcomes will be assessed at 13- and 25-weeks post-randomisation. Efficacy will be examined by intention-to-treat analyses estimating between-group differences in primary (i.e., psychosocial functioning at week 25 measured with the Functional Assessment Short Test) and secondary outcomes (i.e., measures of cognition, mood, patient-defined goals, and quality of life). Global cognition, metacognitive skills, affect fluctuation, and salivary cortisol levels will be evaluated as putative mechanisms of CR through mediation models. Discussion: This study will provide a robust evaluation of efficacy of CR in people with BD and examine the putative mechanisms by which this therapy works. The findings will contribute to determining the clinical utility of CR and potential mechanisms of action. Trial registration: Cognitive Remediation in Bipolar 2 (CRiB2): ISRCTN registry: https://www.isrctn.com/ISRCTN10362331 . Registered 04 May 2022. Overall trial status: Ongoing; Recruitment status: Recruiting