Positive words carry less information than negative words

We show that the frequency of word use is not only determined by the word length \cite{Zipf1935} and the average information content \cite{Piantadosi2011}, but also by its emotional content. We have analyzed three established lexica of affective word usage in English, German, and Spanish, to verify that these lexica have a neutral, unbiased, emotional content. Taking into account the frequency of word usage, we find that words with a positive emotional content are more frequently used. This lends support to Pollyanna hypothesis \cite{Boucher1969} that there should be a positive bias in human expression. We also find that negative words contain more information than positive words, as the informativeness of a word increases uniformly with its valence decrease. Our findings support earlier conjectures about (i) the relation between word frequency and information content, and (ii) the impact of positive emotions on communication and social links.Comment: 16 pages, 3 figures, 3 table

Evaluation of appendicitis risk prediction models in adults with suspected appendicitis

Background Appendicitis is the most common general surgical emergency worldwide, but its diagnosis remains challenging. The aim of this study was to determine whether existing risk prediction models can reliably identify patients presenting to hospital in the UK with acute right iliac fossa (RIF) pain who are at low risk of appendicitis. Methods A systematic search was completed to identify all existing appendicitis risk prediction models. Models were validated using UK data from an international prospective cohort study that captured consecutive patients aged 16–45 years presenting to hospital with acute RIF in March to June 2017. The main outcome was best achievable model specificity (proportion of patients who did not have appendicitis correctly classified as low risk) whilst maintaining a failure rate below 5 per cent (proportion of patients identified as low risk who actually had appendicitis). Results Some 5345 patients across 154 UK hospitals were identified, of which two‐thirds (3613 of 5345, 67·6 per cent) were women. Women were more than twice as likely to undergo surgery with removal of a histologically normal appendix (272 of 964, 28·2 per cent) than men (120 of 993, 12·1 per cent) (relative risk 2·33, 95 per cent c.i. 1·92 to 2·84; P < 0·001). Of 15 validated risk prediction models, the Adult Appendicitis Score performed best (cut‐off score 8 or less, specificity 63·1 per cent, failure rate 3·7 per cent). The Appendicitis Inflammatory Response Score performed best for men (cut‐off score 2 or less, specificity 24·7 per cent, failure rate 2·4 per cent). Conclusion Women in the UK had a disproportionate risk of admission without surgical intervention and had high rates of normal appendicectomy. Risk prediction models to support shared decision‐making by identifying adults in the UK at low risk of appendicitis were identified

Large Wood Inhibits Debris Flow Runout in Forested Southeast Alaska

Due to their potentially long runout, debris flows are a major hazard and an important geomorphic process in mountainous environments. Understanding runout is therefore essential to minimize risk in the near‐term and interpret the pace and pattern of debris flow erosion and deposition over geomorphic timescales. Many debris flows occur in forested landscapes where they mobilize large volumes of large woody debris (LWD) in addition to sediment, but few studies have quantitatively documented the effects of LWD on runout. Here, we analyze recent and historic debris flows in southeast Alaska, a mountainous, forested system with minimal human alteration. Sixteen debris flows near Sitka triggered on August 18, 2015 or more recently had volumes of 80 to 25 000 m3 and limited mobility compared to a global compilation of similarly‐sized debris flows. Their deposits inundated 31% of the planimetric area, and their runout lengths were 48% of that predicted by the global dataset. Depositional slopes were 6°–26°, and mobility index, defined as the ratio of horizontal runout to vertical elevation change, ranged from 1.2 to 3, further indicating low mobility. In the broader southeast Alaskan region consisting of Chichagof and Baranof Islands, remote sensing‐based analysis of 1061 historic debris flows showed that mobility index decreased from 2.3–2.5 to 1.4–1.8 as average forest age increased from 0 to 416 years. We therefore interpret that the presence of LWD within a debris flow and standing trees, stumps, and logs in the deposition zone inhibit runout, primarily through granular phenomena such as jamming due to force chains. Calibration of debris flow runout models should therefore incorporate the ecologic as well as geologic setting, and feedbacks between debris flows and vegetation likely control the transport of sediment and organic material through steep, forested catchments over geomorphic time. © 2020 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd

Behavioral research and empirical modeling of marketing channels: Implications for both fields and a call for future research

Marketing channels, Game theory, Behavioral decision research,