Assessment of Heat-Related Health Impacts in Brisbane, Australia: Comparison of Different Heatwave Definitions

Background: There is no global definition of a heatwave because local acclimatisation and adaptation influence the impact of extreme heat. Even at a local level there can be multiple heatwave definitions, based on varying temperature levels or time periods. We investigated the relationship between heatwaves and health outcomes using ten different heatwave definitions in Brisbane, Australia. ---------- Methodology/Principal Findings: We used daily data on climate, air pollution, and emergency hospital admissions in Brisbane between January 1996 and December 2005; and mortality between January 1996 and November 2004. Case-crossover analyses were used to assess the relationship between each of the ten heatwave definitions and health outcomes. During heatwaves there was a statistically significant increase in emergency hospital admissions for all ten definitions, with odds ratios ranging from 1.03 to 1.18. A statistically significant increase in the odds ratios of mortality was also found for eight definitions. The size of the heat-related impact varied between definitions.---------- Conclusions/Significance Even a small change in the heatwave definition had an appreciable effect on the estimated health impact. It is important to identify an appropriate definition of heatwave locally and to understand its health effects in order to develop appropriate public health intervention strategies to prevent and mitigate the impact of heatwaves

Not the End of the World? Post-Classical Decline and Recovery in Rural Anatolia

Between the foundation of Constantinople as capital of the eastern half of the Roman Empire in 330 CE and its sack by the Fourth Crusade in 1204 CE, the Byzantine Empire underwent a full cycle from political-economic stability, through rural insecurity and agrarian decline, and back to renewed prosperity. These stages plausibly correspond to the phases of over-extension (K), subsequent release (Ω) and recovery (α) of the Adaptive Cycle in Socio-Ecological Systems. Here we track and partly quantify the consequences of those changes in different regions of Anatolia, firstly for rural settlement (via regional archaeological surveys) and secondly for land cover (via pollen analysis). We also examine the impact of climate changes on the agrarian system. While individual histories vary, the archaeological record shows a major demographic decline between ca .650 and ca. 900 CE in central and southwestern Anatolia, which was then a frontier zone between Byzantine and Arab armies. In these regions, and also in northwest Anatolia, century-scale trends in pollen indicate a substantial decline in the production of cereal and tree crops, and a smaller decline in pastoral activity. During the subsequent recovery (α) phase after 900 CE there was strong regional differentiation, with central Anatolia moving to a new economic system based on agro-pastoralism, while lowland areas of northern and western Anatolia returned to the cultivation of commercial crops such as olive trees. The extent of recovery in the agrarian economy was broadly predictable by the magnitude of its preceding decline, but the trajectories of recovery varied between different regions

Effects of apparent temperature on daily mortality in Lisbon and Oporto, Portugal

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Evidence that elevated temperatures can lead to increased mortality is well documented, with population vulnerability being location specific. However, very few studies have been conducted that assess the effects of temperature on daily mortality in urban areas in Portugal.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>In this paper time-series analysis was used to model the relationship between mean apparent temperature and daily mortality during the warm season (April to September) in the two largest urban areas in Portugal: Lisbon and Oporto. We used generalized additive Poisson regression models, adjusted for day of week and season.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Our results show that in Lisbon, a 1°C increase in mean apparent temperature is associated with a 2.1% (95%CI: 1.6, 2.5), 2.4% (95%CI: 1.7, 3.1) and 1.7% (95%CI: 0.1, 3.4) increase in all-causes, cardiovascular, and respiratory mortality, respectively. In Oporto the increase was 1.5% (95%CI: 1.0, 1.9), 2.1% (95%CI: 1.3, 2.9) and 2.7% (95%CI: 1.2, 4.3) respectively. In both cities, this increase was greater for the group >65 years.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>Even without extremes in apparent temperature, we observed an association between temperature and daily mortality in Portugal. Additional research is needed to allow for better assessment of vulnerability within populations in Portugal in order to develop more effective heat-related morbidity and mortality public health programs.</p

Apparent Temperature and Air Pollution vs. Elderly Population Mortality in Metro Vancouver

Background: Meteorological conditions and air pollution in urban environments have been associated with general population and elderly mortality, showing seasonal variation. Objectives: This study is designed to evaluate the relationship between apparent temperature (AT) and air pollution (PM2.5) vs. mortality in elderly population of Metro Vancouver. Methods: Statistical analyses are performed on moving sum daily mortality rates vs. moving average AT and PM 2.5 in 1-, 2-, 3-, 5-, and 7-day models for all seasons, warm temperatures above 15uC, and cold temperatures below 10uC. Results: Approximately 37 % of the variation in all-season mortality from circulatory and respiratory causes can be explained by the variation in 7-day moving average apparent temperature (r 2 = 0.37, p,0.001). Although the analytical results from air pollution models show increasingly better prediction ability of longer time-intervals (r 2 = 0.012, p,0.001 in a 7-day model), a very weak negative association between elderly mortality and air pollution is observed. Conclusions: Apparent temperature is associated with mortality from respiratory and circulatory causes in elderly population of Metro Vancouver. In a changing climate, one may anticipate to observe potential health impacts from the projected high- and particularly from the low-temperature extremes

Assessment and prevention of acute health effects of weather conditions in Europe, the PHEWE project: background, objectives, design

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>The project "Assessment and prevention of acute health effects of weather conditions in Europe" (PHEWE) had the aim of assessing the association between weather conditions and acute health effects, during both warm and cold seasons in 16 European cities with widely differing climatic conditions and to provide information for public health policies.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>The PHEWE project was a three-year pan-European collaboration between epidemiologists, meteorologists and experts in public health. Meteorological, air pollution and mortality data from 16 cities and hospital admission data from 12 cities were available from 1990 to 2000. The short-term effect on mortality/morbidity was evaluated through city-specific and pooled time series analysis. The interaction between weather and air pollutants was evaluated and health impact assessments were performed to quantify the effect on the different populations. A heat/health watch warning system to predict oppressive weather conditions and alert the population was developed in a subgroup of cities and information on existing prevention policies and of adaptive strategies was gathered.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Main results were presented in a symposium at the conference of the International Society of Environmental Epidemiology in Paris on September 6^th2006 and will be published as scientific articles. The present article introduces the project and includes a description of the database and the framework of the applied methodology.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>The PHEWE project offers the opportunity to investigate the relationship between temperature and mortality in 16 European cities, representing a wide range of climatic, socio-demographic and cultural characteristics; the use of a standardized methodology allows for direct comparison between cities.</p

Assessment of aortic stiffness by cardiovascular magnetic resonance following the treatment of severe aortic stenosis by TAVI and surgical AVR

Aortic stiffness is increasingly used as an independent predictor of adverse cardiovascular outcomes. We sought to compare the impact of transcatheter aortic valve implantation (TAVI) and surgical aortic valve replacement (SAVR) upon aortic vascular function using cardiovascular magnetic resonance (CMR) measurements of aortic distensibility and pulse wave velocity (PWV).A 1.5 T CMR scan was performed pre-operatively and at 6 m post-intervention in 72 patients (32 TAVI, 40 SAVR; age 76 ± 8 years) with high-risk symptomatic severe aortic stenosis. Distensibility of the ascending and descending thoracic aorta and aortic pulse wave velocity were determined at both time points. TAVI and SAVR patients were comparable for gender, blood pressure and left ventricular ejection fraction. The TAVI group were older (81 ± 6.3 vs. 72.8 ± 7.0 years, p < 0.05) with a higher EuroSCORE II (5.7 ± 5.6 vs. 1.5 ± 1.0 %, p < 0.05). At 6 m, SAVR was associated with a significant decrease in distensibility of the ascending aorta (1.95 ± 1.15 vs. 1.57 ± 0.68 × 10(-3)mmHg(-1), p = 0.044) and of the descending thoracic aorta (3.05 ± 1.12 vs. 2.66 ± 1.00 × 10(-3)mmHg(-1), p = 0.018), with a significant increase in PWV (6.38 ± 4.47 vs. 11.01 ± 5.75 ms(-1), p = 0.001). Following TAVI, there was no change in distensibility of the ascending aorta (1.96 ± 1.51 vs. 1.72 ± 0.78 × 10(-3)mmHg(-1), p = 0.380), descending thoracic aorta (2.69 ± 1.79 vs. 2.21 ± 0.79 × 10(-3)mmHg(-1), p = 0.181) nor in PWV (8.69 ± 6.76 vs. 10.23 ± 7.88 ms(-1), p = 0.301) at 6 m.Treatment of symptomatic severe aortic stenosis by SAVR but not TAVI was associated with an increase in aortic stiffness at 6 months. Future work should focus on the prognostic implication of these findings to determine whether improved patient selection and outcomes can be achieved

Home based exercise to improve turning and mobility performance among community dwelling older adults: protocol for a randomized controlled trial

Background: Turning is a common activity for older people, and is one of the activities commonly associated with falls during walking. Falls that occur while walking and turning have also been associated with an increased risk of hip fracture in older people. Despite the importance of stability during turning, there has been little focus on identifying this impairment in at risk older people, or in evaluating interventions aiming to improve this outcome. This study will evaluate the effectiveness of a 16 week tailored home based exercise program in older adults aged (50 years and above) who were identified as having unsteadiness during turning.Methods/Design: A single blind randomized controlled trial will be conducted, with assessors blind to group allocation. Study participants will be aged 50 years and above, living in the community and have been identified as having impaired turning ability [outside of age and gender normal limits on the Step Quick Turn (180 degree turn) task on the Neurocom® Balance Master with long plate]. After a comprehensive baseline assessment, those classified as having balance impairment while turning will be randomized to intervention or control group. The intervention group will receive a 16 week individualized balance and strength home exercise program, based on the Otago Exercise Program with additional exercises focused on improving turning ability. Intervention group will attend four visit to the assessment centre over 16 weeks period, for provision, monitoring, modification of the exercise and encourage ongoing participation. Participants in the control group will continue with their usual activities. All participants will be re-assessed on completion of the 16 week program. Primary outcome measures will be the Step Quick Turn Test and Timed-Up and Go test. Secondary outcomes will include other clinical measures of balance, psychological aspects of falls, incidence of falls and falls risk factors. Discussion: Results of this study will provide useful information for clinicians on the types of exercises to improve turning ability in older people with increased falls risk and the effectiveness of these exercises in improving outcomes

Seed Dispersal Anachronisms: Rethinking the Fruits Extinct Megafauna Ate

Background: Some neotropical, fleshy-fruited plants have fruits structurally similar to paleotropical fruits dispersed by megafauna (mammals.10 3 kg), yet these dispersers were extinct in South America 10–15 Kyr BP. Anachronic dispersal systems are best explained by interactions with extinct animals and show impaired dispersal resulting in altered seed dispersal dynamics. Methodology/Principal Findings: We introduce an operational definition of megafaunal fruits and perform a comparative analysis of 103 Neotropical fruit species fitting this dispersal mode. We define two megafaunal fruit types based on previous analyses of elephant fruits: fruits 4–10 cm in diameter with up to five large seeds, and fruits.10 cm diameter with numerous small seeds. Megafaunal fruits are well represented in unrelated families such as Sapotaceae, Fabaceae, Solanaceae, Apocynaceae, Malvaceae, Caryocaraceae, and Arecaceae and combine an overbuilt design (large fruit mass and size) with either a single or few (,3 seeds) extremely large seeds or many small seeds (usually.100 seeds). Within-family and within-genus contrasts between megafaunal and non-megafaunal groups of species indicate a marked difference in fruit diameter and fruit mass but less so for individual seed mass, with a significant trend for megafaunal fruits to have larger seeds and seediness. Conclusions/Significance: Megafaunal fruits allow plants to circumvent the trade-off between seed size and dispersal b