Probabilistic fire spread forecast as a management tool in an operational setting

Background: An approach to predict fire growth in an operational setting, with the potential to be used as a decision-support tool for fire management, is described and evaluated. The operational use of fire behaviour models has mostly followed a deterministic approach, however, the uncertainty associated with model predictions needs to be quantified and included in wildfire planning and decision-making process during fire suppression activities. We use FARSITE to simulate the growth of a large wildfire. Probabilistic simulations of fire spread are performed, accounting for the uncertainty of some model inputs and parameters. Deterministic simulations were performed for comparison. We also assess the degree to which fire spread modelling and satellite active fire data can be combined, to forecast fire spread during large wildfires events. Results: Uncertainty was propagated through the FARSITE fire spread modelling system by randomly defining 100 different combinations of the independent input variables and parameters, and running the correspondent fire spread simulations in order to produce fire spread probability maps. Simulations were initialized with the reported ignition location and with satellite active fires. The probabilistic fire spread predictions show great potential to be used as a fire management tool in an operational setting, providing valuable information regarding the spatial–temporal distribution of burn probabilities. The advantage of probabilistic over deterministic simulations is clear when both are compared. Re-initializing simulations with satellite active fires did not improve simulations as expected. Conclusion: This information can be useful to anticipate the growth of wildfires through the landscape with an associated probability of occurrence. The additional information regarding when, where and with what probability the fire might be in the next few hours can ultimately help minimize the negative environmental, social and economic impacts of these firesinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersio

All-sky search for periodic gravitational waves in LIGO S4 data

We report on an all-sky search with the LIGO detectors for periodic gravitational waves in the frequency range 50-1000 Hz and with the frequency's time derivative in the range -1.0E-8 Hz/s to zero. Data from the fourth LIGO science run (S4) have been used in this search. Three different semi-coherent methods of transforming and summing strain power from Short Fourier Transforms (SFTs) of the calibrated data have been used. The first, known as "StackSlide", averages normalized power from each SFT. A "weighted Hough" scheme is also developed and used, and which also allows for a multi-interferometer search. The third method, known as "PowerFlux", is a variant of the StackSlide method in which the power is weighted before summing. In both the weighted Hough and PowerFlux methods, the weights are chosen according to the noise and detector antenna-pattern to maximize the signal-to-noise ratio. The respective advantages and disadvantages of these methods are discussed. Observing no evidence of periodic gravitational radiation, we report upper limits; we interpret these as limits on this radiation from isolated rotating neutron stars. The best population-based upper limit with 95% confidence on the gravitational-wave strain amplitude, found for simulated sources distributed isotropically across the sky and with isotropically distributed spin-axes, is 4.28E-24 (near 140 Hz). Strict upper limits are also obtained for small patches on the sky for best-case and worst-case inclinations of the spin axes.Comment: 39 pages, 41 figures An error was found in the computation of the C parameter defined in equation 44 which led to its overestimate by 2^(1/4). The correct values for the multi-interferometer, H1 and L1 analyses are 9.2, 9.7, and 9.3, respectively. Figure 32 has been updated accordingly. None of the upper limits presented in the paper were affecte

A self-rating scale for patient-perceived side effects of inhaled corticosteroids

BACKGROUND: Patient-reported side effect questionnaires offer a simple method for the systematic measurement of drug-related side effects. In order to measure patients' inhaled corticosteroids (ICS) related side effect perceptions the 14-day retrospective Inhaled Corticosteroid Questionnaire (ICQ) was developed. In this research we aim to assess the construct validity and reliability of the ICQ and test its responsiveness to dose changes in adult asthma patients. METHODS: In a cross-sectional study, current inhaler users with asthma completed the ICQ (27 with non ICS inhaler; 61 BDP equivalent daily ICS low dose ≤400 μg; 62 mid dose 401–800 μg; and 105 with high dose >800 μg). We generated 3 construct validity hypotheses: 1) a hierarchical dose-response pattern for scoring of the individual items on the ICQ, and statistically significant differences in the scores of each of the 15 ICQ domains by ICS dose group 2) an association between ICS dose and ICQ scoring after adjusting for appropriate confounders in multiple regression; 3) greater convergence between local side effect domains than between systemic and local domains of the scale. Test-retest reliability was assessed on a randomly selected subgroup of patients (n = 73) who also completed the ICQ a second time after 7 days. In a separate longitudinal study, 61 patients with asthma completed the ICQ at baseline and after changing their daily ICS dose, at 2- and 6- months, in order to test the ICQ's responsiveness. RESULTS: All three construct validity hypotheses were well supported: 1) a statistically significant difference existed in scores for 14 domains, the high ICS dose group scoring highest; 2) ICS dose independently predicted ICQ scoring after adjusting for confounders; 3) greater convergence existed between local ICQ domains than between local and systemic domains. The ICQ had good reproducibility: test-retest intraclass correlation coefficients were ≥0.69 for all but the 'Facial Oedema' domain. In the longitudinal study, ICQ scores for 'Voice Problems' changed significantly at 2- and 6-months from baseline and other ICQ domains displayed trends in scoring change accordant with dose modulation at 6-months. CONCLUSION: The ICQ has good dose-related discriminative properties, is valid, reliable, and shows potential responsiveness to ICS dose change

Search for gravitational waves from binary inspirals in S3 and S4 LIGO data

We report on a search for gravitational waves from the coalescence of compact binaries during the third and fourth LIGO science runs. The search focused on gravitational waves generated during the inspiral phase of the binary evolution. In our analysis, we considered three categories of compact binary systems, ordered by mass: (i) primordial black hole binaries with masses in the range 0.35 M(sun) < m1, m2 < 1.0 M(sun), (ii) binary neutron stars with masses in the range 1.0 M(sun) < m1, m2 < 3.0 M(sun), and (iii) binary black holes with masses in the range 3.0 M(sun)< m1, m2 < m_(max) with the additional constraint m1+ m2 < m_(max), where m_(max) was set to 40.0 M(sun) and 80.0 M(sun) in the third and fourth science runs, respectively. Although the detectors could probe to distances as far as tens of Mpc, no gravitational-wave signals were identified in the 1364 hours of data we analyzed. Assuming a binary population with a Gaussian distribution around 0.75-0.75 M(sun), 1.4-1.4 M(sun), and 5.0-5.0 M(sun), we derived 90%-confidence upper limit rates of 4.9 yr^(-1) L10^(-1) for primordial black hole binaries, 1.2 yr^(-1) L10^(-1) for binary neutron stars, and 0.5 yr^(-1) L10^(-1) for stellar mass binary black holes, where L10 is 10^(10) times the blue light luminosity of the Sun.Comment: 12 pages, 11 figure

Searching for a Stochastic Background of Gravitational Waves with LIGO

The Laser Interferometer Gravitational-wave Observatory (LIGO) has performed the fourth science run, S4, with significantly improved interferometer sensitivities with respect to previous runs. Using data acquired during this science run, we place a limit on the amplitude of a stochastic background of gravitational waves. For a frequency independent spectrum, the new limit is $\Omega_{\rm GW} < 6.5 \times 10^{-5}$. This is currently the most sensitive result in the frequency range 51-150 Hz, with a factor of 13 improvement over the previous LIGO result. We discuss complementarity of the new result with other constraints on a stochastic background of gravitational waves, and we investigate implications of the new result for different models of this background.Comment: 37 pages, 16 figure

A Joint Search for Gravitational Wave Bursts with AURIGA and LIGO

The first simultaneous operation of the AURIGA detector and the LIGO observatory was an opportunity to explore real data, joint analysis methods between two very different types of gravitational wave detectors: resonant bars and interferometers. This paper describes a coincident gravitational wave burst search, where data from the LIGO interferometers are cross-correlated at the time of AURIGA candidate events to identify coherent transients. The analysis pipeline is tuned with two thresholds, on the signal-to-noise ratio of AURIGA candidate events and on the significance of the cross-correlation test in LIGO. The false alarm rate is estimated by introducing time shifts between data sets and the network detection efficiency is measured with simulated signals with power in the narrower AURIGA band. In the absence of a detection, we discuss how to set an upper limit on the rate of gravitational waves and to interpret it according to different source models. Due to the short amount of analyzed data and to the high rate of non-Gaussian transients in the detectors noise at the time, the relevance of this study is methodological: this was the first joint search for gravitational wave bursts among detectors with such different spectral sensitivity and the first opportunity for the resonant and interferometric communities to unify languages and techniques in the pursuit of their common goal.Comment: 18 pages, IOP, 12 EPS figure

Search for gravitational-wave bursts in LIGO data from the fourth science run

The fourth science run of the LIGO and GEO 600 gravitational-wave detectors, carried out in early 2005, collected data with significantly lower noise than previous science runs. We report on a search for short-duration gravitational-wave bursts with arbitrary waveform in the 64-1600 Hz frequency range appearing in all three LIGO interferometers. Signal consistency tests, data quality cuts, and auxiliary-channel vetoes are applied to reduce the rate of spurious triggers. No gravitational-wave signals are detected in 15.5 days of live observation time; we set a frequentist upper limit of 0.15 per day (at 90% confidence level) on the rate of bursts with large enough amplitudes to be detected reliably. The amplitude sensitivity of the search, characterized using Monte Carlo simulations, is several times better than that of previous searches. We also provide rough estimates of the distances at which representative supernova and binary black hole merger signals could be detected with 50% efficiency by this analysis.Comment: Corrected amplitude sensitivities (7% change on average); 30 pages, submitted to Classical and Quantum Gravit

Search for Gravitational Waves Associated with 39 Gamma-Ray Bursts Using Data from the Second, Third, and Fourth LIGO Runs

We present the results of a search for short-duration gravitational-wave bursts associated with 39 gamma-ray bursts (GRBs) detected by gamma-ray satellite experiments during LIGO's S2, S3, and S4 science runs. The search involves calculating the crosscorrelation between two interferometer data streams surrounding the GRB trigger time. We search for associated gravitational radiation from single GRBs, and also apply statistical tests to search for a gravitational-wave signature associated with the whole sample. For the sample examined, we find no evidence for the association of gravitational radiation with GRBs, either on a single-GRB basis or on a statistical basis. Simulating gravitational-wave bursts with sine-gaussian waveforms, we set upper limits on the root-sum-square of the gravitational-wave strain amplitude of such waveforms at the times of the GRB triggers. We also demonstrate how a sample of several GRBs can be used collectively to set constraints on population models. The small number of GRBs and the significant change in sensitivity of the detectors over the three runs, however, limits the usefulness of a population study for the S2, S3, and S4 runs. Finally, we discuss prospects for the search sensitivity for the ongoing S5 run, and beyond for the next generation of detectors.Comment: 24 pages, 10 figures, 14 tables; minor changes to text and Fig. 2; accepted by Phys. Rev.

Caregiver education in Parkinson’s disease: formative evaluation of a standardized program in seven European countries

The formative evaluation of a standardized psychosocial education program for patients with Parkinson's disease (PD) and their caregivers. The results of the participation of the caregivers are presented next to the data of the patients. Caregivers (n = 137) and patients with PD (n = 151) participated in the 8-week program in separate groups. Measurements were performed on psychosocial problems (BELA-P/A-k), health state (EQ-5D VAS), quality of life (PDQ-39) and depression (SDS) 1 week before and 1 week after the program. Participants rated their mood on a visual analogue scale before and after each session, and they filled in an evaluation questionnaire after the last session. Scores on the BELA-P/A-k improved significantly on the 'bothered by scale' as well as the 'need for help scale'. No improvements were found on EQ-5D VAS, PDQ-39 and SDS. Mood ratings improved significantly after each session. Most participants evaluated the program as positive. Feedback led to improvements in the program, which are incorporated in a final manual. The program was feasible to run in the different countries. This exploratory study led to improvements in the program and recommendations for further research. A study on the effectiveness of the program is the next step.Pathophysiology of paroxysmal and chronic degenerative progressive disorder of the central and periferal nervous syste