Survival of the Systems

This is the author accepted manuscript. The final version is available from cell Press via the DOI in this recordSince Darwin, individuals and more recently genes have been the focus of evolutionary thinking. The idea that selection operates on non-reproducing, higher-level systems including ecosystems or societies has met with scepticism. But research emphasising that natural selection can be based solely on differential persistence invites reconsideration of their evolution. Self-perpetuating feedback cycles involving biotic as well as abiotic components are critical to determining persistence. Evolution of autocatalytic networks of molecules is well studied, but the principles hold for any ‘self-perpetuating’ system. Ecosystem examples include coral reefs, rainforests and savannahs. Societal examples include agricultural systems, dominant belief systems and economies. Persistence-based selection of feedbacks can help us understand how ecological and societal systems survive or fail in a changing world

U.S. Natural Resources and Climate Change: Concepts and Approaches for Management Adaptation

Public lands and waters in the United States traditionally have been managed using frameworks and objectives that were established under an implicit assumption of stable climatic conditions. However, projected climatic changes render this assumption invalid. Here, we summarize general principles for management adaptations that have emerged from a major literature review. These general principles cover many topics including: (1) how to assess climate impacts to ecosystem processes that are key to management goals; (2) using management practices to support ecosystem resilience; (3) converting barriers that may inhibit management responses into opportunities for successful implementation; and (4) promoting flexible decision making that takes into account challenges of scale and thresholds. To date, the literature on management adaptations to climate change has mostly focused on strategies for bolstering the resilience of ecosystems to persist in their current states. Yet in the longer term, it is anticipated that climate change will push certain ecosystems and species beyond their capacity to recover. When managing to support resilience becomes infeasible, adaptation may require more than simply changing management practices—it may require changing management goals and managing transitions to new ecosystem states. After transitions have occurred, management will again support resilience—this time for a new ecosystem state. Thus, successful management of natural resources in the context of climate change will require recognition on the part of managers and decisions makers of the need to cycle between “managing for resilience” and “managing for change.

Effects of an anionic surfactant (FFD-6) on the energy and information flow between a primary producer (Scenedesmus obliquus) and a consumer (Daphnia magna)

The effects of a commercially available anionic surfactant solution (FFD-6) on growth and morphology of a common green alga (Scenedesmus obliquus) and on survival and clearance rates of the water flea Daphnia magna were studied. The surfactant-solution elicited a morphological response (formation of colonies) in Scenedesmus at concentrations of 10–100 μl l−1 that were far below the No Observed Effect Concentration (NOEC) value of 1,000 μl l−1 for growth inhibition. The NOEC-value of FFD-6 for colony-induction was 3 μl l−1. Daphnia survival was strongly affected by FFD-6, yielding LC50–24h and LC50–48h of 148 and 26 μl l−1, respectively. In addition, clearance rates of Daphnia feeding on unicellular Scenedesmus were inhibited by FFD-6, yielding a 50% inhibition (EC50–1.5h) at 5.2 μl l−1 with a NOEC of 0.5 μl l−1. When Daphnia were offered FFD-6-induced food in which eight-celled colonies (43 × 29 μm) were most abundant, clearance rates (~0.14 ml ind.−1 h−1) were only 25% the rates of animals that were offered non-induced unicellular (15 × 5 μm) Scenedesmus (~0.56 ml ind.−1 h−1). As FFD-6 concentrations in the treated food used in the experiments were far below the NOEC for clearance rate inhibition, it is concluded that the feeding rate depression was caused by the altered morphology of the Scenedesmus moving them out of the feeding window of the daphnids. The surfactant evoked a response in Scenedesmus that is similar to the natural chemically induced defensive reaction against grazers and could disrupt the natural information conveyance between these plankton organisms

Assessing the effects of multiple infections and long latency in the dynamics of tuberculosis

In order to achieve a better understanding of multiple infections and long latency in the dynamics of Mycobacterium tuberculosis infection, we analyze a simple model. Since backward bifurcation is well documented in the literature with respect to the model we are considering, our aim is to illustrate this behavior in terms of the range of variations of the model's parameters. We show that backward bifurcation disappears (and forward bifurcation occurs) if: (a) the latent period is shortened below a critical value; and (b) the rates of super-infection and re-infection are decreased. This result shows that among immunosuppressed individuals, super-infection and/or changes in the latent period could act to facilitate the onset of tuberculosis. When we decrease the incubation period below the critical value, we obtain the curve of the incidence of tuberculosis following forward bifurcation; however, this curve envelops that obtained from the backward bifurcation diagram

Early warning signals of simulated Amazon rainforest dieback

Copyright © The Author(s) 2013. This article is published with open access at Springerlink.comWe test proposed generic tipping point early warning signals in a complex climate model (HadCM3) which simulates future dieback of the Amazon rainforest. The equation governing tree cover in the model suggests that zero and non-zero stable states of tree cover co-exist, and a transcritical bifurcation is approached as productivity declines. Forest dieback is a non-linear change in the non-zero tree cover state, as productivity declines, which should exhibit critical slowing down. We use an ensemble of versions of HadCM3 to test for the corresponding early warning signals. However, on approaching simulated Amazon dieback, expected early warning signals of critical slowing down are not seen in tree cover, vegetation carbon or net primary productivity. The lack of a convincing trend in autocorrelation appears to be a result of the system being forced rapidly and non-linearly. There is a robust rise in variance with time, but this can be explained by increases in inter-annual temperature and precipitation variability that force the forest. This failure of generic early warning indicators led us to seek more system-specific, observable indicators of changing forest stability in the model. The sensitivity of net ecosystem productivity to temperature anomalies (a negative correlation) generally increases as dieback approaches, which is attributable to a non-linear sensitivity of ecosystem respiration to temperature. As a result, the sensitivity of atmospheric CO2 anomalies to temperature anomalies (a positive correlation) increases as dieback approaches. This stability indicator has the benefit of being readily observable in the real world.NERCJoint DECC/Defra Met Office Hadley Centre Climate ProgrammeUniversity of Exete

Local biodiversity is higher inside than outside terrestrial protected areas worldwide

Protected areas are widely considered essential for biodiversity conservation. However, few global studies have demonstrated that protection benefits a broad range of species. Using a new global biodiversity database with unprecedented geographic and taxonomic coverage, we compare four biodiversity measures at sites sampled in multiple land uses inside and outside protected areas. Globally, species richness is 10.7% higher and abundance 14.5% higher in samples taken inside protected areas compared to samples taken outside, but neither rarefaction-based richness nor endemicity differ significantly. Importantly, we show that the positive effects of protection are mostly attributable to differences in land use between protected and unprotected sites. Nonetheless, even within some human-dominated land uses, species richness and abundance are higher in protected sites. Our results reinforce the global importance of protected areas but suggest that protection does not consistently benefit species with small ranges or increase the variety of ecological niches

Ecosystem Resilience and Threshold Response in the Galápagos Coastal Zone

Background: The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) provides a conservative estimate on rates of sea-level rise of 3.8 mm yr⁻¹ at the end of the 21st century, which may have a detrimental effect on ecologically important mangrove ecosystems. Understanding factors influencing the long-term resilience of these communities is critical but poorly understood. We investigate ecological resilience in a coastal mangrove community from the Galápagos Islands over the last 2700 years using three research questions: What are the 'fast and slow' processes operating in the coastal zone? Is there evidence for a threshold response? How can the past inform us about the resilience of the modern system?Methodology/Principal Findings: Palaeoecological methods (AMS radiocarbon dating, stable carbon isotopes (δ13C)) were used to reconstruct sedimentation rates and ecological change over the past 2,700 years at Diablas lagoon, Isabela, Galápagos. Bulk geochemical analysis was also used to determine local environmental changes, and salinity was reconstructed using a diatom transfer function. Changes in relative sea level (RSL) were estimated using a glacio-isostatic adjustment model. Non-linear behaviour was observed in the Diablas mangrove ecosystem as it responded to increased salinities following exposure to tidal inundations. A negative feedback was observed which enabled the mangrove canopy to accrete vertically, but disturbances may have opened up the canopy and contributed to an erosion of resilience over time. A combination of drier climatic conditions and a slight fall in RSL then resulted in a threshold response, from a mangrove community to a microbial mat.Conclusions/Significance: Palaeoecological records can provide important information on the nature of non-linear behaviour by identifying thresholds within ecological systems, and in outlining responses to 'fast and slow' environmental change between alternative stable states. This study highlights the need to incorporate a long-term ecological perspective when designing strategies for maximizing coastal resilience.</p

Litter mixture interactions at the level of plant functional types are additive.

It is very difficult to estimate litter decomposition rates in natural ecosystems because litters of many species are mixed and idiosyncratic interactions occur among those litters. A way to tackle this problem is to investigate litter mixing effects not at the species level but at the level of Plant Functional Types (PFTs). We tested the hypothesis that at the PFT level positive and negative interactions balance each other, causing an overall additive effect (no significant interactions among PFTs). Thereto, we used litter of four PFTs from a temperate peatland in which random draws were taken from the litter species pool of each PFT for every combination of 2, 3, and 4 PFTs. Decomposition rates clearly differed among the 4 PFTs (Sphagnum spp. < graminoids = N-fixing tree < forbs) and showed little variation within the PFTs (notably for the Sphagnum mosses and the graminoids). Significant positive interactions (4 out of 11) in the PFT mixtures were only found after 20 weeks and in all these combinations Sphagnum was involved. After 36 and 56 weeks of incubation interactions were not significantly different from zero. However, standard deviations were larger than the means, indicating that positive and negative interactions balanced each other. Thus, when litter mixture interactions are considered at the PFT level the interactions are additive. From this we conclude that for estimating litter decomposition rates at the ecosystem level, it is sufficient to use the weighted (by litter production) average decomposition rates of the contributing PFTs. © 2009 The Author(s)

Determination of fungal activity in modified wood by means of micro-calorimetry and determination of total esterase activity

Beech and pine wood blocks were treated with 1,3-dimethylol-4,5-dihydroxyethylen urea (DMDHEU) to increasing weight percent gains (WPG). The resistance of the treated specimens against Trametes versicolor and Coniophora puteana, determined as mass loss, increased with increasing WPG of DMDHEU. Metabolic activity of the fungi in the wood blocks was assessed as total esterase activity (TEA) based on the hydrolysis of fluorescein diacetate and as heat or energy production determined by isothermal micro-calorimetry. Both methods revealed that the fungal activity was related with the WPG and the mass loss caused by the fungi. Still, fungal activity was detected even in wood blocks of the highest WPG and showed that the treatment was not toxic to the fungi. Energy production showed a higher consistency with the mass loss after decay than TEA; higher mass loss was more stringently reflected by higher heat production rate. Heat production did not proceed linearly, possibly due to the inhibition of fungal activity by an excess of carbon dioxide