Experimental evidence that livestock grazing intensity affects cyclic vole population regulation processes

Peer reviewedPublisher PD

Adaptive individual variation in phenological responses to perceived predation levels

The adaptive evolution of timing of breeding (a component of phenology) in response to environmental change requires individual variation in phenotypic plasticity for selection to act upon. A major question is what processes generate this variation. Here we apply multi-year manipulations of perceived predation levels (PPL) in an avian predator-prey system, identifying phenotypic plasticity in phenology as a key component of alternative behavioral strategies with equal fitness payoffs. We show that under low-PPL, faster (versus slower) exploring birds breed late (versus early);the pattern is reversed under high-PPL, with breeding synchrony decreasing in conjunction. Timing of breeding affects reproductive success, yet behavioral types have equal fitness. The existence of alternative behavioral strategies thus explains variation in phenology and plasticity in reproductive behavior, which has implications for evolution in response to anthropogenic change

Evolution of predator dispersal in relation to spatio-temporal prey dynamics : how not to get stuck in the wrong place!

Peer reviewedPublisher PD

Cyclic voles and shrews and non-cyclic mice in a marginal grassland within European temperate forest

Cyclic population dynamics of small mammals are not restricted to the boreal and arctic zones of Eurasia and North America, but long-term data series from lower latitudes are still less common. We demonstrated here the presence of periodic oscillations in small mammal populations in eastern Poland using 22-year (1986–2007) trapping data from marginal meadow and river valley grasslands located in the extensive temperate woodland of Białowieża Primeval Forest. The two most common species inhabiting meadows and river valleys, root vole Microtus oeconomus and common shrew Sorex araneus, exhibited synchronous periodic changes, characterised by a 3-year time lag as indicated by an autocorrelation function. Moreover, the cycles of these two species were synchronous within both habitats. Population dynamics of the striped field mouse Apodemus agrarius was not cyclic. However, this species regularly reached maximum density 1 year before the synchronized peak of root voles and common shrews, which may suggest the existence of interspecific competition. Dynamics of all three species was dominated by direct density-dependent process, whereas delayed density dependent feedback was significant only in the root vole and common shrew. Climatic factors acting in winter and spring (affecting mainly survival and initial reproduction rates) were more important than those acting in summer and autumn and affected significantly only the common shrew. High temperatures in winter and spring had positive effects on autumn-to-autumn changes in abundance of this species, whereas deep snow in combination with high rainfall in spring negatively affected population increase rates in common shrew

Climate change drives microevolution in a wild bird

To ensure long-term persistence, organisms must adapt to climate change, but an evolutionary response to a quantified selection pressure driven by climate change has not been empirically demonstrated in a wild population. Here, we show that pheomelanin-based plumage colouration in tawny owls is a highly heritable trait, consistent with a simple Mendelian pattern of brown (dark) dominance over grey (pale). We show that strong viability selection against the brown morph occurs, but only under snow-rich winters. As winter conditions became milder in the last decades, selection against the brown morph diminished. Concurrent with this reduced selection, the frequency of brown morphs increased rapidly in our study population during the last 28 years and nationwide during the last 48 years. Hence, we show the first evidence that recent climate change alters natural selection in a wild population leading to a microevolutionary response, which demonstrates the ability of wild populations to evolve in response to climate change

Effects of the Distribution of Female Primates on the Number of Males

The spatiotemporal distribution of females is thought to drive variation in mating systems, and hence plays a central role in understanding animal behavior, ecology and evolution. Previous research has focused on investigating the links between female spatiotemporal distribution and the number of males in haplorhine primates. However, important questions remain concerning the importance of spatial cohesion, the generality of the pattern across haplorhine and strepsirrhine primates, and the consistency of previous findings given phylogenetic uncertainty. To address these issues, we examined how the spatiotemporal distribution of females influences the number of males in primate groups using an expanded comparative dataset and recent advances in Bayesian phylogenetic and statistical methods. Specifically, we investigated the effect of female distributional factors (female number, spatial cohesion, estrous synchrony, breeding season duration and breeding seasonality) on the number of males in primate groups. Using Bayesian approaches to control for uncertainty in phylogeny and the model of trait evolution, we found that the number of females exerted a strong influence on the number of males in primate groups. In a multiple regression model that controlled for female number, we found support for temporal effects, particularly involving female estrous synchrony: the number of males increases when females are more synchronously receptive. Similarly, the number of males increases in species with shorter birth seasons, suggesting that greater breeding seasonality makes defense of females more difficult for male primates. When comparing primate suborders, we found only weak evidence for differences in traits between haplorhines and strepsirrhines, and including suborder in the statistical models did not affect our conclusions or give compelling evidence for different effects in haplorhines and strepsirrhines. Collectively, these results demonstrate that male monopolization is driven primarily by the number of females in groups, and secondarily by synchrony of female reproduction within groups

Cost effectiveness of support for people starting a new medication for a long term condition through community pharmacies: an economic evaluation of the New Medicine Service (NMS) compared with normal practice

Background: The English community pharmacy New Medicine Service (NMS) significantly increases patient adherence to medicines, compared with normal practice. We examined the cost-effectiveness of NMS compared with normal practice by combining adherence improvement and intervention costs with the effect of increased adherence on patient outcomes and healthcare costs. Methods: We developed Markov models for diseases targeted by the NMS (hypertension, type 2 diabetes, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, asthma and antiplatelet regimens) to assess the impact of patients’ non-adherence. Clinical event probability, treatment pathway, resource-use and costs were extracted from literature and costing tariffs. Incremental costs and outcomes associated with each disease were incorporated additively into a composite probabilistic model and combined with adherence rates and intervention costs from the trial. Costs per extra quality-adjusted-life-year(QALY) were calculated from the perspective of NHS England, using a lifetime horizon. Results: NMS generated a mean of 0.05 (95%CI: 0.00, 0.13) more QALYs per patient, at a mean reduced cost of -£144 (95%CI: -769, 73). The NMS dominates normal practice with probability of 0.78 (ICER: - £3166 per QALY). NMS has a 96.7% probability of cost-effectiveness compared with normal practice at a willingness-to-pay of £20000 per QALY. Sensitivity analysis demonstrated that targeting each disease with NMS has a probability over 0.90 of cost-effectiveness compared with normal practice at a willingness-to-pay of £20000 per QALY. Conclusions: Our study suggests that the New Medicine Service increased patient medicine adherence compared with normal practice, which translated into increased health gain at reduced overall cost

You Mate, I Mate: Macaque Females Synchronize Sex not Cycles

Extended female sexuality in species living in multimale-multifemale groups appears to enhance benefits from multiple males. Mating with many males, however, requires a low female monopolizability, which is affected by the spatiotemporal distribution of receptive females. Ovarian cycle synchrony potentially promotes overlapping receptivity if fertile and receptive periods are tightly linked. In primates, however, mating is often decoupled from hormonal control, hence reducing the need for synchronizing ovarian events. Here, we test the alternative hypothesis that females behaviorally coordinate their receptivity while simultaneously investigating ovarian cycle synchrony in wild, seasonal Assamese macaques (Macaca assamensis), a promiscuous species with extremely extended female sexuality. Using fecal hormone analysis to assess ovarian activity we show that fertile phases are randomly distributed, and that dyadic spatial proximity does not affect their distribution. We present evidence for mating synchrony, i.e., the occurrence of the females' receptivity was significantly associated with the proportion of other females mating on a given day. Our results suggest social facilitation of mating synchrony, which explains (i) the high number of simultaneously receptive females, and (ii) the low male mating skew in this species. Active mating synchronization may serve to enhance the benefits of extended female sexuality, and may proximately explain its patterning and maintenance