A regime switching skew-normal model of contagion

© 2019 Walter de Gruyter GmbH, Berlin/Boston. A flexible multivariate model of a time-varying joint distribution of asset returns is developed which allows for regime switching and a joint skew-normal distribution. A suite of tests for linear and nonlinear financial market contagion is developed within the framework. The model is illustrated through an application to contagion between US and European equity markets during the Global Financial Crisis. The results show that correlation contagion dominates coskewness contagion, but that coskewness contagion is significant for Greece. A flight to safety to the US is also evident in the significance of breaks in the skewness parameter in the crisis regime. Comparison to the Asian crisis shows that similar patterns emerge, with a flight to safety to Japan, and Malaysia affected by coskewnes contagion with Hong Kong

Do home modifications reduce care home admissions for older people? A matched control evaluation of the Care & Repair Cymru service in Wales

Background: home advice and modification interventions aim to promote independent living for those living in the community, but quantitative evidence of their effectiveness is limited. Aim: assess the risk of care home admissions for people with different frailty levels receiving home advice and modification interventions against a control group who do not. Study design and setting: matched control evaluation using linked longitudinal data from the Secure Anonymised Information Linkage (SAIL) Databank, comprising people aged 60–95, registered with a SAIL contributing general practice. The intervention group received the Care & Repair Cymru (C & RC) service, a home advice and modification service available to residents in Wales. Methods: frailty, age and gender were used in propensity score matching to assess the Hazard Ratio (HR) of care home admissions within a 1-, 3- and 5-year period for the intervention group (N = 93,863) compared to a matched control group (N = 93,863). Kaplan–Meier curves were used to investigate time to a care home admission. Results: the intervention group had an increased risk of a care home admission at 1-, 3- and 5-years [HR (95%CI)] for those classified as fit [1-year: 2.02 (1.73, 2.36), 3-years: 1.87 (1.72, 2.04), 5-years: 1.99 (1.86, 2.13)] and mildly frail [1-year: 1.25 (1.09, 1.42), 3-years: 1.25 (1.17, 1.34), 5-years: 1.30 (1.23, 1.38)], but a reduced risk of care home admission for moderately [1-year: 0.66 (0.58, 0.75), 3-years: 0.75 (0.70, 0.80), 5-years: 0.83 (0.78, 0.88)] and severely frail individuals [1-year: 0.44 (0.37, 0.54), 3-years: 0.54 (0.49, 0.60), 5-years: 0.60(0.55, 0.66)]. Conclusions: HRs indicated that the C & RC service helped to prevent care home admissions for moderately and severely frail individuals. The HRs generally increased with follow-up duration

Spatially clustered count data provide more efficient search strategies in invasion biology and disease control.

Geographic profiling, a mathematical model originally developed in criminology, is increasingly being used in ecology and epidemiology. Geographic profiling boasts a wide range of applications, such as finding source populations of invasive species or breeding sites of vectors of infectious disease. The model provides a cost-effective approach for prioritising search strategies for source locations and does so via simple data in the form of the positions of each observation, such as individual sightings of invasive species or cases of a disease. In doing so, however, classic geographic profiling approaches fail to make the distinction between those areas containing observed absences and those areas where no data were recorded. Absence data are generated via spatial sampling protocols but are often discarded during the inference process. Here we construct a geographic profiling model that resolves these issues by making inferences via count data - analysing a set of discrete sentinel locations at which the number of encounters has been recorded. Crucially, in our model this number can be zero. We verify the ability of this new model to estimate source locations and other parameters of practical interest via a Bayesian power analysis. We also measure model performance via real-world data in which the model infers breeding locations of mosquitoes in bromeliads in Miami-Dade County, Florida. In both cases, our novel model produces more efficient search strategies by shifting focus from those areas containing observed absences to those with no data, an improvement over existing models that treat these areas equally. Our model makes important improvements upon classic geographic profiling methods, which will significantly enhance real-world efforts to develop conservation management plans and targeted interventions

Children and young people's body mass index measures derived from routine data sources: A national data linkage study in Wales.

BACKGROUND: Routine monitoring of Body Mass Index (BMI) in general practice, and via national surveillance programmes, is essential for the identification, prevention, and management of unhealthy childhood weight. We examined and compared the presence and representativeness of children and young people's (CYPs) BMI recorded in two routinely collected administrative datasets: general practice electronic health records (GP-BMI) and the Child Measurement Programme for Wales (CMP-BMI), which measures height and weight in 4-5-year-old school children. We also assessed the feasibility of combining GP-BMI and CMP-BMI data for longitudinal analyses. METHODS: We accessed de-identified population-level GP-BMI data for calendar years 2011 to 2019 for 246,817 CYP, and CMP-BMI measures for 222,772 CYP, held within the Secure Anonymised Information Linkage Databank. We examined the proportion of CYP in Wales with at least one GP-BMI record, its distribution by child socio-demographic characteristics, and trends over time. We compared GP-BMI and CMP-BMI distributions. We quantified the proportion of children with a CMP-BMI measure and a follow-up GP-BMI recorded at an older age and explored the representativeness of these measures. RESULTS: We identified a GP-BMI record in 246,817 (41%) CYP, present in a higher proportion of females (54.2%), infants (20.7%) and adolescents. There was no difference in the deprivation profile of those with a GP-BMI measurement. 31,521 CYP with a CMP-BMI had at least one follow-up GP-BMI; those with a CMP-BMI considered underweight or very overweight were 87% and 70% more likely to have at least one follow-up GP-BMI record respectively compared to those with a healthy weight, as were males and CYP living in the most deprived areas of Wales. CONCLUSIONS: Records of childhood weight status extracted from general practice are not representative of the population and are biased with respect to weight status. Linkage of information from the national programme to GP records has the potential to enhance discussions around healthy weight at the point of care but does not provide a representative estimate of population level weight trajectories, essential to provide insights into factors determining a healthy weight gain across the early life course. A second CMP measurement is required in Wales

The impact of COVID-19 on adjusted mortality risk in care homes for older adults inWales, UK: A retrospective population-based cohort study for mortality in 2016-2020

Supplementary data are available online at: https://academic.oup.com/ageing/article/50/1/25/5908996#supplementary-data .Copyright © The Author(s) 2020. Background: mortality in care homes has had a prominent focus during the COVID-19 outbreak. Care homes are particularly vulnerable to the spread of infectious diseases, which may lead to increased mortality risk. Multiple and interconnected challenges face the care home sector in the prevention and management of outbreaks of COVID-19, including adequate supply of personal protective equipment, staff shortages and insufficient or lack of timely COVID-19 testing. Aim: to analyse the mortality of older care home residents in Wales during COVID-19 lockdown and compare this across the population of Wales and the previous 4 years. Study Design and Setting: we used anonymised electronic health records and administrative data from the secure anonymised information linkage databank to create a cross-sectional cohort study. We anonymously linked data for Welsh residents to mortality data up to the 14th June 2020. Methods: we calculated survival curves and adjusted Cox proportional hazards models to estimate hazard ratios (HRs) for the risk of mortality. We adjusted HRs for age, gender, social economic status and prior health conditions. Results: survival curves show an increased proportion of deaths between 23rd March and 14th June 2020 in care homes for older people, with an adjusted HR of 1.72 (1.55, 1.90) compared with 2016. Compared with the general population in 2016–2019, adjusted care home mortality HRs for older adults rose from 2.15 (2.11, 2.20) in 2016–2019 to 2.94 (2.81, 3.08) in 2020. Conclusions: the survival curves and increased HRs show a significantly increased risk of death in the 2020 study periods.This work was supported by Health and Care research Wales [Project: SCF-18-1,504]; and Health Data Research UK [NIWA1] which receives its funding from HDR UK Ltd funded by the UK Medical Research Council, Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council, Economic and Social Research Council, Department of Health and Social Care (England), Chief Scientist Office of the Scottish Government Health and Social Care Directorates, Health and Social Care Research and Development Division (Welsh Government), Public Health Agency (Northern Ireland), British Heart Foundation (BHF) and the Wellcome Trust. This research has also been supported by the ADR Wales programme of work. The ADR Wales programme of work is aligned to the priority themes as identified in the Welsh Government’s national strategy: Prosperity for All. ADR Wales brings together data science experts at Swansea University Medical School, staff from the Wales Institute of Social and Economic Research, Data and Methods (WISERD) at Cardiff University and specialist teams within the Welsh Government to develop new evidence which supports Prosperity for All by using the SAIL Databank at Swansea University, to link and analyse anonymised data. ADR Wales is part of the Economic and Social Research Council (part of UK Research and Innovation) funded ADR UK (grant ES/S007393/1)

Biofilter aquaponic system for nutrients removal from fresh market wastewater

Aquaponics is a significant wastewater treatment system which refers to the combination of conventional aquaculture (raising aquatic organism) with hydroponics (cultivating plants in water) in a symbiotic environment. This system has a high ability in removing nutrients compared to conventional methods because it is a natural and environmentally friendly system (aquaponics). The current chapter aimed to review the possible application of aquaponics system to treat fresh market wastewater with the intention to highlight the mechanism of phytoremediation occurs in aquaponic system. The literature revealed that aquaponic system was able to remove nutrients in terms of nitrogen and phosphorus

Long term geological record of a global deep subsurface microbial habitat in sand injection complexes

Peer reviewedPublisher PD

A digitally driven manufacturing process for high resolution patterning of cell formations

This paper presents the engineering and validation of an enabling technology that facilitates new capabilities in in vitro cell models for high-throughput screening and tissue engineering applications. This is conducted through a computerized system that allows the design and deposition of high-fidelity microscale patterned coatings that selectively alter the chemical and topographical properties of cell culturing surfaces. Significantly, compared to alternative methods for microscale surface patterning, this is a digitally controlled and automated process thereby allowing scientists to rapidly create and explore an almost infinite range of cell culture patterns. This new capability is experimentally validated across six different cell lines demonstrating how the precise microscale deposition of these patterned coatings can influence spatiotemporal growth and movement of endothelial, fibroblast, neuronal and macrophage cells. To further demonstrate this platform, more complex patterns are then created and shown to guide the behavioral response of colorectal carcinoma cells

Male reproductive health and environmental xenoestrogens

EHP is a publication of the U.S. government. Publication of EHP lies in the public domain and is therefore without copyright. Research articles from EHP may be used freely; however, articles from the News section of EHP may contain photographs or figures copyrighted by other commercial organizations and individuals that may not be used without obtaining prior approval from both the EHP editors and the holder of the copyright. Use of any materials published in EHP should be acknowledged (for example, "Reproduced with permission from Environmental Health Perspectives") and a reference provided for the article from which the material was reproduced.Male reproductive health has deteriorated in many countries during the last few decades. In the 1990s, declining semen quality has been reported from Belgium, Denmark, France, and Great Britain. The incidence of testicular cancer has increased during the same time incidences of hypospadias and cryptorchidism also appear to be increasing. Similar reproductive problems occur in many wildlife species. There are marked geographic differences in the prevalence of male reproductive disorders. While the reasons for these differences are currently unknown, both clinical and laboratory research suggest that the adverse changes may be inter-related and have a common origin in fetal life or childhood. Exposure of the male fetus to supranormal levels of estrogens, such as diethlylstilbestrol, can result in the above-mentioned reproductive defects. The growing number of reports demonstrating that common environmental contaminants and natural factors possess estrogenic activity presents the working hypothesis that the adverse trends in male reproductive health may be, at least in part, associated with exposure to estrogenic or other hormonally active (e.g., antiandrogenic) environmental chemicals during fetal and childhood development. An extensive research program is needed to understand the extent of the problem, its underlying etiology, and the development of a strategy for prevention and intervention.Supported by EU Contract BMH4-CT96-0314

Fundamental Limits on Wavelength, Efficiency and Yield of the Charge Separation Triad

In an attempt to optimize a high yield, high efficiency artificial photosynthetic protein we have discovered unique energy and spatial architecture limits which apply to all light-activated photosynthetic systems. We have generated an analytical solution for the time behavior of the core three cofactor charge separation element in photosynthesis, the photosynthetic cofactor triad, and explored the functional consequences of its makeup including its architecture, the reduction potentials of its components, and the absorption energy of the light absorbing primary-donor cofactor. Our primary findings are two: First, that a high efficiency, high yield triad will have an absorption frequency more than twice the reorganization energy of the first electron transfer, and second, that the relative distance of the acceptor and the donor from the primary-donor plays an important role in determining the yields, with the highest efficiency, highest yield architecture having the light absorbing cofactor closest to the acceptor. Surprisingly, despite the increased complexity found in natural solar energy conversion proteins, we find that the construction of this central triad in natural systems matches these predictions. Our analysis thus not only suggests explanations for some aspects of the makeup of natural photosynthetic systems, it also provides specific design criteria necessary to create high efficiency, high yield artificial protein-based triads