Reliability of environmental DNA surveys to detect pond occupancy by newts at a national scale

The distribution assessment and monitoring of species is key to reliable environmental impact assessments and conservation interventions. Considerable effort is directed towards survey and monitoring of great crested newts (Triturus cristatus) in England. Surveys are increasingly undertaken using indirect methodologies, such as environmental DNA (eDNA). We used a large data set to estimate national pond occupancy rate, as well as false negative and false positive error rates, for commercial eDNA protocols. Additionally, we explored a range of habitat, landscape and climatic variables as predictors of pond occupancy. In England, 20% of ponds were estimated to be occupied by great crested newts. Pond sample collection error rates were estimated as 5.2% false negative and 1.5% false positive. Laboratory error indicated a negligible false negative rate when 12 qPCR replicates were used. Laboratory false positive error was estimated at 2% per qPCR replicate and is therefore exaggerated by high levels of laboratory replication. Including simple habitat suitability variables into the model revealed the importance of fish, plants and shading as predictors of newt presence. However, variables traditionally considered as important for newt presence may need more precise and consistent measurement if they are to be employed as reliable predictors in modelling exercises

Bayesian optimization for materials design

We introduce Bayesian optimization, a technique developed for optimizing time-consuming engineering simulations and for fitting machine learning models on large datasets. Bayesian optimization guides the choice of experiments during materials design and discovery to find good material designs in as few experiments as possible. We focus on the case when materials designs are parameterized by a low-dimensional vector. Bayesian optimization is built on a statistical technique called Gaussian process regression, which allows predicting the performance of a new design based on previously tested designs. After providing a detailed introduction to Gaussian process regression, we introduce two Bayesian optimization methods: expected improvement, for design problems with noise-free evaluations; and the knowledge-gradient method, which generalizes expected improvement and may be used in design problems with noisy evaluations. Both methods are derived using a value-of-information analysis, and enjoy one-step Bayes-optimality

Hazard Analysis of Critical Control Points Assessment as a Tool to Respond to Emerging Infectious Disease Outbreaks

Highly pathogenic avian influenza virus (HPAI) strain H5N1 has had direct and indirect economic impacts arising from direct mortality and control programmes in over 50 countries reporting poultry outbreaks. HPAI H5N1 is now reported as the most widespread and expensive zoonotic disease recorded and continues to pose a global health threat. The aim of this research was to assess the potential of utilising Hazard Analysis of Critical Control Points (HACCP) assessments in providing a framework for a rapid response to emerging infectious disease outbreaks. This novel approach applies a scientific process, widely used in food production systems, to assess risks related to a specific emerging health threat within a known zoonotic disease hotspot. We conducted a HACCP assessment for HPAI viruses within Vietnam’s domestic poultry trade and relate our findings to the existing literature. Our HACCP assessment identified poultry flock isolation, transportation, slaughter, preparation and consumption as critical control points for Vietnam’s domestic poultry trade. Introduction of the preventative measures highlighted through this HACCP evaluation would reduce the risks posed by HPAI viruses and pressure on the national economy. We conclude that this HACCP assessment provides compelling evidence for the future potential that HACCP analyses could play in initiating a rapid response to emerging infectious diseases

Quality science from quality measurement: The role of measurement type with respect to replication and effect size magnitude in psychological research

Copyright: © 2018 Kornbrot et al. This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited.The quality of psychological studies is currently a major concern. The Many Labs Project (MLP) and the Open-Science-Collaboration (OSC) have collected key data on replicability and statistical effect sizes. We build on this work by investigating the role played by three measurement types: ratings, proportions and unbounded (measures without conceptual upper limits, e.g. time). Both replicability and effect sizes are dependent on the amount of variability due to extraneous factors. We predicted that the role of such extraneous factors might depend on measurement type, and would be greatest for ratings, intermediate for proportions and least for unbounded. Our results support this conjecture. OSC replication rates for unbounded, 43% and proportion 40% combined are reliably higher than those for ratings at 20% (effect size, w = .20). MLP replication rates for the original studies are: pro- portion = .74, ratings = .40 (effect size w = .33). Original effect sizes (Cohen’s d) are highest for: unbounded OSC cognitive = 1.45, OSC social = .90); next for proportions (OSC cogni- tive = 1.01, OSC social = .84, MLP = .82); and lowest for ratings (OSC social = .64, MLP = .31). These findings are of key importance to scientific methodology and design, even if the reasons for their occurrence are still at the level of conjecture.Peer reviewe

Boosting Long-term Memory via Wakeful Rest: Intentional Rehearsal is not Necessary, Automatic Consolidation is Sufficient.

<div><p>People perform better on tests of delayed free recall if learning is followed immediately by a short wakeful rest than by a short period of sensory stimulation. Animal and human work suggests that wakeful resting provides optimal conditions for the consolidation of recently acquired memories. However, an alternative account cannot be ruled out, namely that wakeful resting provides optimal conditions for intentional rehearsal of recently acquired memories, thus driving superior memory. Here we utilised non-recallable words to examine whether wakeful rest boosts long-term memory, even when new memories could not be rehearsed intentionally during the wakeful rest delay. The probing of non-recallable words requires a recognition paradigm. Therefore, we first established, via Experiment 1, that the rest-induced boost in memory observed via free recall can be replicated in a recognition paradigm, using concrete nouns. In Experiment 2, participants heard 30 non-recallable non-words, presented as ‘foreign names in a bridge club abroad’ and then either rested wakefully or played a visual spot-the-difference game for 10 minutes. Retention was probed via recognition at two time points, 15 minutes and 7 days after presentation. As in Experiment 1, wakeful rest boosted recognition significantly, and this boost was maintained for at least 7 days. Our results indicate that the enhancement of memory via wakeful rest is <i>not</i> dependent upon intentional rehearsal of learned material during the rest period. We thus conclude that consolidation is <i>sufficient</i> for this rest-induced memory boost to emerge. We propose that wakeful resting allows for superior memory consolidation, resulting in stronger and/or more veridical representations of experienced events which can be detected via tests of free recall and recognition.</p></div

A pilot randomised controlled trial of personalised care for depressed patients with symptomatic coronary heart disease in South London general practices: the UPBEAT-UK RCT protocol and recruitment.

ABSTRACT: Background: Community studies reveal people with coronary heart disease (CHD) are twice as likely to be depressed as the general population and that this co-morbidity negatively affects the course and outcome of both conditions. There is evidence for the efficacy of collaborative care and case management for depression treatment, and whilst NICE guidelines recommend these approaches only where depression has not responded to psychological, pharmacological, or combined treatments, these care approaches may be particularly relevant to the needs of people with CHD and depression in the earlier stages of stepped care in primary care settings. Methods: This pilot randomised controlled trial will evaluate whether a simple intervention involving a personalised care plan, elements of case management and regular telephone review is a feasible and acceptable intervention that leads to better mental and physical health outcomes for these patients. The comparator group will be usual general practitioner (GP) care. 81 participants have been recruited from CHD registers of 15 South London general practices. Eligible participants have probable major depression identified by a score of ≥8 on the Hospital Anxiety and Depression Scale depression subscale (HADS-D) together with symptomatic CHD identified using the Modified Rose Angina Questionnaire. Consenting participants are randomly allocated to usual care or the personalised care intervention which involves a comprehensive assessment of each participant’s physical and mental health needs which are documented in a care plan, followed by regular telephone reviews by the case manager over a 6-month period. At each review, the intervention participant’s mood, function and identified problems are reviewed and the case manager uses evidence based behaviour change techniques to facilitate achievement of goals specified by the patient with the aim of increasing the patient’s self efficacy to solve their problems. Depressive symptoms measured by HADS score will be collected at baseline and 1, 6- and 12 months post randomisation. Other outcomes include CHD symptoms, quality of life, wellbeing and health service utilisation. Discussion: This practical and patient-focused intervention is potentially an effective and accessible approach to the health and social care needs of people with depression and CHD in primary care. Trial registration: ISRCTN21615909

Potentiation of thrombus instability: a contributory mechanism to the effectiveness of antithrombotic medications

© The Author(s) 2018The stability of an arterial thrombus, determined by its structure and ability to resist endogenous fibrinolysis, is a major determinant of the extent of infarction that results from coronary or cerebrovascular thrombosis. There is ample evidence from both laboratory and clinical studies to suggest that in addition to inhibiting platelet aggregation, antithrombotic medications have shear-dependent effects, potentiating thrombus fragility and/or enhancing endogenous fibrinolysis. Such shear-dependent effects, potentiating the fragility of the growing thrombus and/or enhancing endogenous thrombolytic activity, likely contribute to the clinical effectiveness of such medications. It is not clear how much these effects relate to the measured inhibition of platelet aggregation in response to specific agonists. These effects are observable only with techniques that subject the growing thrombus to arterial flow and shear conditions. The effects of antithrombotic medications on thrombus stability and ways of assessing this are reviewed herein, and it is proposed that thrombus stability could become a new target for pharmacological intervention.Peer reviewedFinal Published versio

Monitoring Toxicity Associated with Parenteral Sodium Stibogluconate in the Day-Case Management of Returned Travellers with New World Cutaneous Leishmaniasi

Sodium stibogluconate (SbV), a pentavalent antimonial, administered parenterally, is the recommended treatment for South American cutaneous leishmaniasis, caused by Leishmania Viannia, which is a neglected disease that affects many people resident in Central and South America, as well as travellers to the areas. Antimonials have been used for the treatment of leishmaniasis since the 1930s. We report the toxicity experienced by a series of NWCL patients receiving SbV in a resource-rich setting. This study also evaluates administration of the drug to patients without admitting them to hospital. The administration of parenteral SbV was associated with myelosuppression, derangement of markers of liver function and prolongation of the QT interval on electrocardiography, although these effects were not found to be associated with adverse clinical events, and the majority of doses of SbV were administered without cause for hospital admission. Our data shows that parenteral SbV treatment may be provided with reduced monitoring for toxicity than is currently done, and on an outpatient-basis, without endangering safety. Such practice, with reduced demands on local finances and the healthcare workforce, would be desirable in more resource-limited settings

Evaluation of the current knowledge limitations in breast cancer research: a gap analysis

BACKGROUND A gap analysis was conducted to determine which areas of breast cancer research, if targeted by researchers and funding bodies, could produce the greatest impact on patients. METHODS Fifty-six Breast Cancer Campaign grant holders and prominent UK breast cancer researchers participated in a gap analysis of current breast cancer research. Before, during and following the meeting, groups in seven key research areas participated in cycles of presentation, literature review and discussion. Summary papers were prepared by each group and collated into this position paper highlighting the research gaps, with recommendations for action. RESULTS Gaps were identified in all seven themes. General barriers to progress were lack of financial and practical resources, and poor collaboration between disciplines. Critical gaps in each theme included: (1) genetics (knowledge of genetic changes, their effects and interactions); (2) initiation of breast cancer (how developmental signalling pathways cause ductal elongation and branching at the cellular level and influence stem cell dynamics, and how their disruption initiates tumour formation); (3) progression of breast cancer (deciphering the intracellular and extracellular regulators of early progression, tumour growth, angiogenesis and metastasis); (4) therapies and targets (understanding who develops advanced disease); (5) disease markers (incorporating intelligent trial design into all studies to ensure new treatments are tested in patient groups stratified using biomarkers); (6) prevention (strategies to prevent oestrogen-receptor negative tumours and the long-term effects of chemoprevention for oestrogen-receptor positive tumours); (7) psychosocial aspects of cancer (the use of appropriate psychosocial interventions, and the personal impact of all stages of the disease among patients from a range of ethnic and demographic backgrounds). CONCLUSION Through recommendations to address these gaps with future research, the long-term benefits to patients will include: better estimation of risk in families with breast cancer and strategies to reduce risk; better prediction of drug response and patient prognosis; improved tailoring of treatments to patient subgroups and development of new therapeutic approaches; earlier initiation of treatment; more effective use of resources for screening populations; and an enhanced experience for people with or at risk of breast cancer and their families. The challenge to funding bodies and researchers in all disciplines is to focus on these gaps and to drive advances in knowledge into improvements in patient care

Determinaci?n de los factores cr?ticos para la transformaci?n de un distrito de Lima Metropolitana en una smart city

El crecimiento poblacional acelerado y el desarrollo urbano no planificado ha provocado problemas medioambientales, sociales, econ?micos y pol?ticos que afectan el progreso de las ciudades y la calidad de vida de las personas. El modelo de ciudad inteligente pretende impactar significativamente en la vida de los ciudadanos y solucionar los retos urbanos m?s urgentes de la ciudad a trav?s de herramientas tecnol?gicas y servicios que mejoren la eficiencia de los recursos naturales y econ?micos. Hoy en d?a, son muchas las ciudades que han iniciado su transformaci?n hacia una ciudad inteligente, con visiones diferentes seg?n sus propias necesidades y perspectivas de desarrollo. La presente investigaci?n compara los casos de aplicaci?n de ciudades inteligentes y sostenibles a nivel mundial, teniendo ?nfasis en exponer la situaci?n en Latinoam?rica, en particular Lima. Se concluye en la necesidad de definir los factores determinantes para la transformaci?n de un distrito de la ciudad de Lima Metropolitana en una ciudad inteligente que logren la continuidad y sostenibilidad de los servicios inteligentes concedidos sin importar el periodo de gobernanza de la ciudad, por lo cual se plantea una estrategia de comunicaci?n y empoderamiento de la poblaci?n mediante campa?as de sensibilizaci?n