Modelling and forecasting the UK tourism growth cycle in Algarve

Over the past three decades, Portugal has developed a strong economic dependence on tourism, which has several implications for the country's overall economic development. Tourism is an activity that is interrelated strongly with the economic system since Portugal as a whole and specific regions in particular rely on the performance of tourism for their economic activity. Moreover, because economic cycles affect tourism development, it is highly vulnerable to economic fluctuations. Most tourists who visit Portugal are from the European Union, especially Western Europe. Statistics are based on the number of overnight stays in hotel accommodation and other similar establishments. In 2005, the main source markets were the UK (30.7%), Germany (16.5%), Spain (11.5%), the Netherlands (6.8%), France (4.7%), Ireland (3.6%) and Italy (3.1%). These values show that the UK has the greatest share of visitors to Algarve. The purpose of this paper is to propose a modelling approach that best fits the tourism flow pattern in order to support forecasting. The paper contributes to our understanding of the relationship between economic cycles and tourism flows to Portugal (Algarve) and explores the potential of applying the diffusion index model proposed by Stock and Watson (1999, 2002) for tourism demand forecasting

Spirometry And Volumetric Capnography In Lung Function Assessment Of Obese And Normal-weight Individuals Without Asthma

To analyze and compare lung function of obese and healthy, normal-weight children and adolescents, without asthma, through spirometry and volumetric capnography. Methods: Cross-sectional study including 77 subjects (38 obese) aged 5-17 years. All subjects underwent spirometry and volumetric capnography. The evaluations were repeated in obese subjects after the use of a bronchodilator. Results: At the spirometry assessment, obese individuals, when compared with the control group, showed lower values of forced expiratory volume in the first second by forced vital capacity (FEV1/FVC) and expiratory flows at 75% and between 25 and 75% of the FVC (p <0.05). Volumetric capnography showed that obese individuals had a higher volume of produced carbon dioxide and alveolar tidal volume (p <0.05). Additionally, the associations between dead space volume and tidal volume, as well as phase-3 slope normalized by tidal volume, were lower in healthy subjects (p <0.05). These data suggest that obesity does not alter ventilation homogeneity, but flow homogeneity. After subdividing the groups by age, a greater difference in lung function was observed in obese and healthy individuals aged >11 years (p <0.05). Conclusion: Even without the diagnosis of asthma by clinical criteria and without response to bronchodilator use, obese individuals showed lower FEV1/FVC values and forced expiratory flow, indicating the presence of an obstructive process. Volumetric capnography showed that obese individuals had higher alveolar tidal volume, with no alterations in ventilation homogeneity, suggesting flow alterations, without affecting lung volumes. © 2017 Sociedade Brasileira de Pediatria

Back to the Present: Learning about the Euro Area through a Now-casting Model

We build a model for simultaneously now-casting economic conditions in the euro area and its three largest member countries|Germany, France, and Italy. The model formalizes how market participants and policymakers monitor the euro area by incorporating all market moving indicators in real time. We find that area wide and country-specific data provide informative signals to now-cast the economic conditions in the euro area and member countries. The model provides accurate predictions of economic conditions in real time over a period that covers the past three recessions

Viabilidade Técnica E Econômica Da Irrigação Localizada Do Cafeeiro, Nas Condições Climáticas Do Planalto De Araxá, Mg

In the region of Araxá highlands, the economical production of coffee is traditionally made without irrigation. Notwithstanding in recent years, with climate change, water deficit of 150 mm have been verified, affecting the vegetative and productive development of the culture. Within this context, the aim of this study was to evaluate supplementary irrigation to increase production and profitability of the coffee grown in the highlands of Araxá, compared to a non-irrigated and irrigated cultivation throughout the year. The work was implemented in Araxá, Minas Gerais in 2006 and carried out throughout the period of nine years. Different periods of water stress (from April to November) were evaluated, compared with irrigation throughout the year and the witness. After 6 consecutive harvests, it can be concluded that supplemental irrigation promoted an increased productivity in the coffee grown under the conditions of the Araxá Plateau, especially in years of drought. With regard to economic performance, the process of irrigation applied throughout the year promoted profits of 279% (R$/ha year-1) compared to the treatment without irrigation. © 2016, Editora UFLA. All rights reserved.11334735

Screen-printed electrode produced by printed-circuit board technology. Application to cancer biomarker detection by means of plastic antibody as sensing material

This research work presents, for the first time, a screen-printed electrode (SPE) made on a PCB board with silver tracks (Ag) and a three electrode configuration (AgxO-working, AgxO-counter and Ag/AgxO-reference electrodes), following the same approach as printed-circuit boards (PCBs). This low cost and disposable device was tested for screening a cancer biomarker in point-of-care. The selected biomarker was carcinogenic embryonic antigen (CEA) protein, routinely used to follow-up the progression of specific cancer diseases. The biosensor was constructed by assembling a plastic antibody on the Ag-working electrode area, acting as the biorecognition element of the device. The protein molecules that were entrapped on the polymer and positioned at the outer surface of the polypyrrole (PPy) film were removed by protease action. The imprinting effect was tested by preparing non-imprinted (NPPy) material, including only PPy as biorecognition element. Infrared and Raman studies confirmed the surface modification of these electrodes. The ability of the sensing material to rebind CEA was measured by several electrochemi-cal techniques: cyclic voltammetry (CV), impedance spectroscopy (EIS) and square wave voltammetry (SWV). The linear response ranged from 0.05 to 1.25 pg/mL against logarithm concentration. Overall, producing screen-printed electrodes by means of conventional PCB technology showed promising features, mostly regarding cost and prompt availability. The plastic antibody-based biosensor also seems to be a promising tool for screening CEA in point-of-care, with low response time, low cost, good sensitivity and high stability.info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersio

Validação Da Versão De 36 Itens Do Who Disability Assessment Schedule 2.0 (whodas 2.0) Para A Avaliação De Incapacidade E Funcionalidade Da Mulher Associada à Morbidade Materna

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)To validate the translation and adaptation to Brazilian Portuguese of 36 items from the World Health Organizaton Disability Assessment Schedule 2.0 (WHODAS 2.0), regarding their content and structure (construct), in a female population after pregnancy. Methods This is a validation of an instrument for the evaluation of disability and functioning and an assessment of its psychometric properties, performed in a tertiary maternity and a referral center specialized in high-risk pregnancies in Brazil. A sample of 638 women in different postpartum periods who had either a normal or a complicated pregnancy was included. The structure was evaluated by exploratory factor analysis (EFA) and confirmatory factor analysis (CFA), while the content and relationships among the domains were assessed through Pearson’s correlation coefficient. The sociodemographic characteristics were identified, and the mean scores with their standard deviations for the 36 questions of the WHODAS 2.0 were calculated. The internal consistency was evaluated byCronbach’s α. Results Cronbach’s α was higher than 0.79 for both sets of questons of the questionnaire. The EFA and CFA for the main 32 questions exhibited a total variance of 54.7% (Kaiser-Meyer-Olkin [KMO] measure of sampling adequacy = 0.934; p < 0.001) and 53.47% (KMO = 0.934; p < 0.001) respectively. There was a significant correlation among the 6 domains (r = 0.571–0.876), and a moderate correlation among all domains (r = 0.476–0.694). Conclusion The version of the WHODAS 2.0 instrument adapted to Brazilian Portuguese showed good psychometric properties in this sample, and therefore could be applied to populations of women regarding their reproductive history. © 2017 by Thieme-Revinter Publicações Ltda, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil.3924452471142/2011-5, CNPq, Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e TecnológicoConselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq

Lack of effect of cell-wall targeted antibacterials on biofilm formation and antifungal susceptibility of Candidaspecies

The use of central venous catheters (CVC) and broad-spectrum antibacterials are among the main risk factors for the development of candidemia in patients admitted to intensive care units (ICU). It is known that some antibacterials increase the resistance of these yeasts to azole antifungals. Thus, the aim of this research was to determine whether yeast present in CVC colonizations previously exposed to cell-wall targeted antibacterials benefit from a reduction in susceptibility to fluconazole and voriconazole, facilitating their ability to form biofilms. Candida albicans, C. tropicalis, C. glabrata, C. parapsilosis and C. guilhermondii were seeded into antibacterial (cefepime, meropenem, vancomycin, and piperacillin-tazobactam) gradient plates produced in Mueller-Hinton Agar. The susceptibility to fluconazole and voriconazole and the biofilm formation of the yeasts were tested before and after exposure to the antibacterials. None of the antibacterials exerted a significant effect on the in vitro susceptibility of the yeasts to the antifungal agents or on their ability to form biofilms. These results suggest that increased candidemia in ICU patients is not attributable to possible alterations in the yeasts, but is more likely caused by a weakening of the patient's general condition after long exposure to infection