Automated Prediction of CMEs Using Machine Learning of CME – Flare Associations

YesIn this work, machine learning algorithms are applied to explore the relation between significant flares and their associated CMEs. The NGDC flares catalogue and the SOHO/LASCO CMEs catalogue are processed to associate X and M-class flares with CMEs based on timing information. Automated systems are created to process and associate years of flares and CMEs data, which are later arranged in numerical training vectors and fed to machine learning algorithms to extract the embedded knowledge and provide learning rules that can be used for the automated prediction of CMEs. Different properties are extracted from all the associated (A) and not-associated (NA) flares representing the intensity, flare duration, duration of decline and duration of growth. Cascade Correlation Neural Networks (CCNN) are used in our work. The flare properties are converted to numerical formats that are suitable for CCNN. The CCNN will predict if a certain flare is likely to initiate a CME after input of its properties. Intensive experiments using the Jack-knife techniques are carried out and it is concluded that our system provides an accurate prediction rate of 65.3%. The prediction performance is analysed and recommendation for enhancing the performance are provided

Origin of the submillimeter radio emission during the time-extended phase of a solar flare

Solar flares observed in the 200-400 GHz radio domain may exhibit a slowly varying and time-extended component which follows a short (few minutes) impulsive phase and which lasts for a few tens of minutes to more than one hour. The few examples discussed in the literature indicate that such long-lasting submillimeter emission is most likely thermal bremsstrahlung. We present a detailed analysis of the time-extended phase of the 2003 October 27 (M6.7) flare, combining 1-345 GHz total-flux radio measurements with X-ray, EUV, and H{\alpha} observations. We find that the time-extended radio emission is, as expected, radiated by thermal bremsstrahlung. Up to 230 GHz, it is entirely produced in the corona by hot and cool materials at 7-16 MK and 1-3 MK, respectively. At 345 GHz, there is an additional contribution from chromospheric material at a few 10^4 K. These results, which may also apply to other millimeter-submillimeter radio events, are not consistent with the expectations from standard semi-empirical models of the chromosphere and transition region during flares, which predict observable radio emission from the chromosphere at all frequencies where the corona is transparent.Comment: 27 pages, 7 figure

Pagos por Servicios ambientales en marcha: la experiencia en la microcuenca de chaina, Departamento de Boyacá, Colombia

En Latinoamérica se observa un creciente desarrollo de iniciativas de PSA que aunque están orientadas bajo diferentes principios y criterios, son concurrentes en la reducción de externalidades mediante el reconocimiento social y económico de los servicios ambientales. El crecimiento de esquemas de PSA en cuencas para proveer servicios hidrológicos ha sido dinámico, especialmente en las regiones andinas y mesoamericanas donde el déficit hídrico se manifiesta más fuertemente. Si bien el número de iniciativas de PSA en los trópicos es alto, aun son pocos los casos que responden al concepto teórico desarrollado en la literatura. En Colombia, en la microcuenca de Chaina (Departamento de Boyacá), se ha implementado un esquema de PSA que se constituye en una de las experiencias piloto de PSA puros en Latinoamérica. Este hecho ha despertado interés por parte de los especialistas y practicantes, ya que su análisis es un paso para la comprensión no solo del funcionamiento de este instrumento, sino de los diferentes aspectos asociados al surgimiento de mercados de servicios ambientales. La experiencia de PSA en la microcuenca de Chaina ha mostrado que los esquemas de PSA son complementarios a otros instrumentos de conservación como el establecimiento de áreas protegidas y la compra de predios. Adicionalmente, el PSA en Chaina ha permitido el acercamiento de agentes con intereses diferentes, contribuyendo al fortalecimiento y construcción del capital social alrededor de la conservación de la microcuenca y de la región

Do environmental services buyers prefer differentiated rates? a case study from the Colombian Andes

Flat user fees in payment for environmental services (PES) schemes promote administrative ease, and are sometimes perceived as egalitarian. However, when environmental service (ES) buyers are heterogeneous in their income and water consumption levels, this may not be optimal, as total payments become too low and services are under-supplied. This paper identifies ES buyer preferences and estimates their willingness to pay (WTP) differentiated fees in an ongoing PES initiative in an Andean watershed in Colombia. Small, flat user payments have recently been introduced to implement incipient watershed protection upstream. Environmental service users fall into two highly heterogeneous categories: smallholder peasants and owners of recreational houses. We performed a contingent valuation analysis in a representative stratified sample of 218 user households. For improved water services, ES buyers on average were willing to pay a monthly US$1 premium over current flat PES rates. Owners of recreational houses were willing to pay about US$1.50 more; smallholders only US$0.5. 85% of ES buyers also agree to pay differentiated fees. Of these, 41% would prefer fees differentiated by water consumption, 23% by household income, 30% criteria combination, and 6% by other criteria. Spatial variables, such as distance to the water distribution point and to the town center, importantly influenced WTP. The results may help designing users-driven PES schemes in accordance with efficiency and equity objectives