Impact of the Covid 19 Pandemic on the Indian Economy: A Critical Assessment (NIAS/NSE/EEP/U/WP/18/2020)

This paper analyses the economic impact of Covid-19 in India. It documents the trajectory of infections and the lockdown and evaluates the extent of economic losses due to the lockdown. It also critically assesses the economic response of the Indian government to the pandemic and the lockdown

Optimal Electricity Mix for the Southern Region: Summary Report of NIAS – MOES Workshop 17th January 2020 (NIAS/NSE/EEP/U/WR/07/2020)

A one-day workshop was organized on January 17, 2020 at the National Institute of Advanced Studies (NIAS) on the theme, “Optimal Electricity Mix for the Southern Region.” Results of studies undertaken by the Energy and Environment Program at NIAS were presented at the workshop to get feedback and inputs from experts and practitioners in the power sector regarding the theme. The presentations in the workshop included the current overall situation of the power sector, the challenges in renewable energy integration, and ongoing interventions and modeling efforts to better manage a diverse and large Indian power system, with a specific focus on the southern region in India. The overall aim of the workshop was to arrive at a set of suggestions as well as research directions to address the question of economic burdens on increasingly stressed distribution companies in the country as well as to make the best use of available resources in an environmentally sustainable manner. The range of topics covered during the workshop included, generation expansion planning for India, evaluating the financial implications of emissions reductions in the southern region, optimal thermal energy use to compliment increased infirm power supply in the grid, regulatory and infrastructural challenges to renewable energy integration, developments in clean coal technology with a focus on coal gasification, and strategies for ensuring cost-effective environmental sustainability in the coal and lignite fired power plants. This report contains a summary of the deliberations and the key recommendations that are worthy of consideration by policy makers to transition towards an optimal energy mix for the southern region. Similar studies are being undertaken by NIAS for the overall electricity sector in the entire country

Electricity (Amendment) Bill, 2020: Inviting a Bigger Crisis

The proposed Electricity (Amendment) Bill, 2020 aims to reduce subsidies and push for privatisation, especially in the distribution segment of the power sector. Undertaking structural changes in a core sector at a time of crisis from the COVID-19 pandemic and its economic effects defies logic. The proposed amendments are not only anti-people, but they also fail to address the long-term crises in the sector and will only accelerate its deterioration. The central government must hold off on passing any hasty legislation on the subject and adopt a more scientific and less ideological approach to deal with the travails of the power sector

Estimating the risk of mortality attributable to recent late HIV diagnosis following admission to the intensive care unit: A single-centre observational cohort study

OBJECTIVES: Despite improvements in survival of people with HIV admitted to the intensive care unit (ICU), late diagnosis continues to contribute to in-ICU mortality. We quantify the population attributable fraction (PAF) of in-ICU mortality for recent late diagnosis among people with HIV admitted to a London ICU. METHODS: Index ICU admissions among people with HIV were considered from 2000 to 2019. Recent late diagnosis was a CD4 T-cell count < 350 cells/μL and/or AIDS-defining illness at/within 6 months prior to ICU admission. Univariate comparisons were conducted using Wilcoxon rank-sum/Cochran-Armitage/χ2 /Fisher's exact tests. We used Poisson regression (robust standard errors) to estimate unadjusted/adjusted (age, sex, calendar year of ICU admission) risk ratios (RRs) and regression standardization to estimate the PAF. RESULTS: In all, 207 index admissions were included [median (interquartile range) age: 46 (38-53) years; 72% male]; 58 (28%) had a recent late diagnosis, all of whom had a CD4 count < 350 cells/μL, and 95% had advanced HIV (CD4 count < 200 cells/μL and/or AIDS at admission) as compared with 57% of those who did not have a recent late diagnosis (p < 0.001). In-ICU mortality was 27% (55/207); 38% versus 22% in those who did and did not have a recent late diagnosis, respectively (p = 0.02). Recent late diagnosis was independently associated with increased in-ICU mortality risk (adjusted RR = 1.75) (95% confidence interval: 1.05-2.91), with 17.08% (16.04-18.12%) of deaths being attributable to this. CONCLUSIONS: There is a need for improved public health efforts focused on HIV testing and reporting of late diagnosis to better understand potentially missed opportunities for earlier HIV diagnosis in healthcare services

Safe vs. Fair: A formidable trade-off in tackling climate change

Global warming requires a response characterized by forward-looking management of atmospheric carbon and respect for ethical principles. Both safety and fairness must be pursued, and there are severe trade-offs as these are intertwined by the limited headroom for additional atmospheric CO2 emissions. This paper provides a simple numerical mapping at the aggregated level of developed vs. developing countries in which safety and fairness are formulated in terms of cumulative emissions and cumulative per capita emissions respectively. It becomes evident that safety and fairness cannot be achieved simultaneously for strict definitions of both. The paper further posits potential global trading in future cumulative emissions budgets in a world where financial transactions compensate for physical emissions: the safe vs. fair tradeoff is less severe but remains formidable. Finally, we explore very large deployment of engineered carbon sinks and show that roughly 1,000 Gt CO2 of cumulative negative emissions over the century are required to have a significant effect, a remarkable scale of deployment. We also identify the unexplored issue of how such sinks might be treated in sub-global carbon accounting

Global Variation of Nutritional Status in Children Undergoing Chronic Peritoneal Dialysis : A Longitudinal Study of the International Pediatric Peritoneal Dialysis Network

While children approaching end-stage kidney disease (ESKD) are considered at risk of uremic anorexia and underweight they are also exposed to the global obesity epidemic. We sought to investigate the variation of nutritional status in children undergoing chronic peritoneal dialysis (CPD) around the globe. The distribution and course of body mass index (BMI) standard deviation score over time was examined prospectively in 1001 children and adolescents from 35 countries starting CPD who were followed in the International Pediatric PD Network (IPPN) Registry. The overall prevalence of underweight, and overweight/obesity at start of CPD was 8.9% and 19.7%, respectively. Underweight was most prevalent in South and Southeast Asia (20%), Central Europe (16.7%) and Turkey (15.2%), whereas overweight and obesity were most common in the Middle East (40%) and the US (33%). BMI SDS at PD initiation was associated positively with current eGFR and gastrostomy feeding prior to PD start. Over the course of PD BMI SDS tended to increase on CPD in underweight and normal weight children, whereas it decreased in initially overweight patients. In infancy, mortality risk was amplified by obesity, whereas in older children mortality was markedly increased in association with underweight. Both underweight and overweight are prevalent in pediatric ESKD, with the prevalence varying across the globe. Late dialysis start is associated with underweight, while enteral feeding can lead to obesity. Nutritional abnormalities tend to attenuate with time on dialysis. Mortality risk appears increased with obesity in infants and with underweight in older children.Peer reviewe

Outcomes of obstructed abdominal wall hernia: results from the UK national small bowel obstruction audit

Background: Abdominal wall hernia is a common surgical condition. Patients may present in an emergency with bowel obstruction, incarceration or strangulation. Small bowel obstruction (SBO) is a serious surgical condition associated with significant morbidity. The aim of this study was to describe current management and outcomes of patients with obstructed hernia in the UK as identified in the National Audit of Small Bowel Obstruction (NASBO). Methods: NASBO collated data on adults treated for SBO at 131 UK hospitals between January and March 2017. Those with obstruction due to abdominal wall hernia were included in this study. Demographics, co-morbidity, imaging, operative treatment, and in-hospital outcomes were recorded. Modelling for factors associated with mortality and complications was undertaken using Cox proportional hazards and multivariable regression modelling. Results: NASBO included 2341 patients, of whom 415 (17·7 per cent) had SBO due to hernia. Surgery was performed in 312 (75·2 per cent) of the 415 patients; small bowel resection was required in 198 (63·5 per cent) of these operations. Non-operative management was reported in 35 (54 per cent) of 65 patients with a parastomal hernia and in 34 (32·1 per cent) of 106 patients with an incisional hernia. The in-hospital mortality rate was 9·4 per cent (39 of 415), and was highest in patients with a groin hernia (11·1 per cent, 17 of 153). Complications were common, including lower respiratory tract infection in 16·3 per cent of patients with a groin hernia. Increased age was associated with an increased risk of death (hazard ratio 1·05, 95 per cent c.i. 1·01 to 1·10; P = 0·009) and complications (odds ratio 1·05, 95 per cent c.i. 1·02 to 1·09; P = 0·001). Conclusion: NASBO has highlighted poor outcomes for patients with SBO due to hernia, highlighting the need for quality improvement initiatives in this group