Predicting flow reversals in chaotic natural convection using data assimilation

A simplified model of natural convection, similar to the Lorenz (1963) system, is compared to computational fluid dynamics simulations in order to test data assimilation methods and better understand the dynamics of convection. The thermosyphon is represented by a long time flow simulation, which serves as a reference "truth". Forecasts are then made using the Lorenz-like model and synchronized to noisy and limited observations of the truth using data assimilation. The resulting analysis is observed to infer dynamics absent from the model when using short assimilation windows. Furthermore, chaotic flow reversal occurrence and residency times in each rotational state are forecast using analysis data. Flow reversals have been successfully forecast in the related Lorenz system, as part of a perfect model experiment, but never in the presence of significant model error or unobserved variables. Finally, we provide new details concerning the fluid dynamical processes present in the thermosyphon during these flow reversals

The Importance of Context and Cognitive Agency in Developing Police Knowledge: Going Beyond the Police Science Discourse

This paper argues the current exposition of police knowledge through the discourses of police science and evidenced based policing (EBP) leads to exaggerated claims about what is, and can be, known in policing. This new orthodoxy underestimates the challenges of applying knowledge within culturally-mediated police practice. The paper draws upon virtue epistemology highlighting the role cognitive agency plays in establishing knowledge claims. We challenge the assumption that it is possible to derive what works in all instances of certain aspects of policing and suggest it would be more apt to speak about what worked within a specific police context

Firm-size distribution and price-cost margins in Dutch manufacturing

Industrial economists surmise a relation between the size distribution of firms and performance. Usually, attention is focused on the high end of the size distribution. The widely used 4-firm seller concentration, C4, ignores what happens at the low end of the size distribution. An investigation is presented of the extent to which the level and the growth of small business presence influence price-cost margins in Dutch manufacturing. A large data set of 66 industries for a 13-year period is used. This allows the investigation of both small business influences within a framework in which that of many other market structure variables is also studied. Evidence is shown that price-cost margins are influenced by large firm dominance, growth in small business presence, capital intensity, business cycle, international trade, and buyer concentration

Auditor Change Disclosures as Signals of Earnings Management and Risk

Auditor resignations are considered more negative signals than auditor dismissals, but firms’ self-reported distinction between the two may not offer a complete or reliable representation of the nature of the auditor change. 8-K regulations require the disclosure of the adjournment of an audit engagement even if a successor auditor has not yet been named. In compliance with this requirement, some firms file two 8-k’s related to the same auditor change. Exploiting these dual 8-K filings, we create a new measure of the nature of auditor changes and show that 1) both self-reported auditor resignations and dual 8-K filings are related to measures of earnings management and risk; and 2) auditor changes identified as both self-reported resignations and dual 8-K filings are associated with the most negative economic implications (as reflected by the likelihood of financial statement manipulation and bankruptcy risk). We suggest that dual 8-K filings and self-reported resignations are complementary negative signals each capturing unique dimensions of the underlying economic factors

Cytotoxic T-cell precursor frequencies to HER-2 (369 – 377) in patients with HER-2/neu-positive epithelial tumours

HER-2/neu oncoprotein contains several major histocompatibility complex class I-restricted epitopes, which are recognised by cytotoxic T lymphocyte (CTL) on autologous tumours and therefore can be used in immune-based cancer therapies. Of these, the most extensively studied is HER-2(9(369)). In the present report, we used dendritic cells pulsed with HER-2(9(369)) to stimulate, in the presence of IL-7 and IL-12, the production of IFN-gamma by patients' CTL detected by the enzyme-linked immunosorbent spot-assay. Frequencies of peptide-specific precursors were estimated in HLA-A2, HLA-A3 and HLA-A26 patients with HER-2/neu-positive (+) breast, ovarian, lung, colorectal and prostate cancers and healthy individuals. We found increased percentages of such precursors in HLA-A2 (25%) and HLA-A26 (30%) patients, which were significantly higher (60%) in HLA-A3 patients. Our results demonstrate for the first time that pre-existing immunity to HER-2(9(369)) occurs in patients with colorectal, lung and prostate cancer. They also suggest that HER-2(9(369)) can be recognised by CTL, besides HLA-A2, also in the context of HLA-A3 and HLA-A26, thus increasing the applicability of HER-2(9(369))-based vaccinations in a considerably broader patients' population.Journal ArticleResearch Support, Non-U.S. Gov'tinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishe

Metabolites of milk intake: a metabolomic approach in UK twins with findings replicated in two European cohorts

Purpose: Milk provides a significant source of calcium, protein, vitamins and other minerals to Western populations throughout life. Due to its widespread use, the metabolic and health impact of milk consumption warrants further investigation and biomarkers would aid epidemiological studies.  Methods: Milk intake assessed by a validated food frequency questionnaire was analyzed against fasting blood metabolomic profiles from two metabolomic platforms in females from the TwinsUK cohort (n = 3559). The top metabolites were then replicated in two independent populations (EGCUT, n = 1109 and KORA, n = 1593), and the results from all cohorts were meta-analyzed.  Results: Four metabolites were significantly associated with milk intake in the TwinsUK cohort after adjustment for multiple testing (P < 8.08 × 10−5) and covariates (BMI, age, batch effects, family relatedness and dietary covariates) and replicated in the independent cohorts. Among the metabolites identified, the carnitine metabolite trimethyl-N-aminovalerate (β = 0.012, SE = 0.002, P = 2.98 × 10−12) and the nucleotide uridine (β = 0.004, SE = 0.001, P = 9.86 × 10−6) were the strongest novel predictive biomarkers from the non-targeted platform. Notably, the association between trimethyl-N-aminovalerate and milk intake was significant in a group of MZ twins discordant for milk intake (β = 0.050, SE = 0.015, P = 7.53 × 10−4) and validated in the urine of 236 UK twins (β = 0.091, SE = 0.032, P = 0.004). Two metabolites from the targeted platform, hydroxysphingomyelin C14:1 (β = 0.034, SE = 0.005, P = 9.75 × 10−14) and diacylphosphatidylcholine C28:1 (β = 0.034, SE = 0.004, P = 4.53 × 10−16), were also replicated.  Conclusions: We identified and replicated in independent populations four novel biomarkers of milk intake: trimethyl-N-aminovalerate, uridine, hydroxysphingomyelin C14:1 and diacylphosphatidylcholine C28:1. Together, these metabolites have potential to objectively examine and refine milk-disease associations

An empirical analysis of countervailing power in business-to-business bargaining

Pricing schemes in business-to-business (B2B) relationships reflect price discrimination and bargaining over rents. Bargaining outcomes are determined by upstream market power and countervailing buyer power downstream. This paper uses an exceptional panel of B2B transactions in the UK brick market to study B2B transaction prices. The empirical analysis identifies three effects on prices: nonlinear volume and freight absorption effects; countervailing power effects arising from buyers' local commercial significance; and competition effects due to the buyers' local potential suppliers. And it shows that small buyers benefit more from competition than large buyers because they are not constrained by the suppliers' capacity

Cause of Death and Predictors of All-Cause Mortality in Anticoagulated Patients With Nonvalvular Atrial Fibrillation : Data From ROCKET AF

M. Kaste on työryhmän ROCKET AF Steering Comm jäsen.Background-Atrial fibrillation is associated with higher mortality. Identification of causes of death and contemporary risk factors for all-cause mortality may guide interventions. Methods and Results-In the Rivaroxaban Once Daily Oral Direct Factor Xa Inhibition Compared with Vitamin K Antagonism for Prevention of Stroke and Embolism Trial in Atrial Fibrillation (ROCKET AF) study, patients with nonvalvular atrial fibrillation were randomized to rivaroxaban or dose-adjusted warfarin. Cox proportional hazards regression with backward elimination identified factors at randomization that were independently associated with all-cause mortality in the 14 171 participants in the intention-to-treat population. The median age was 73 years, and the mean CHADS(2) score was 3.5. Over 1.9 years of median follow-up, 1214 (8.6%) patients died. Kaplan-Meier mortality rates were 4.2% at 1 year and 8.9% at 2 years. The majority of classified deaths (1081) were cardiovascular (72%), whereas only 6% were nonhemorrhagic stroke or systemic embolism. No significant difference in all-cause mortality was observed between the rivaroxaban and warfarin arms (P=0.15). Heart failure (hazard ratio 1.51, 95% CI 1.33-1.70, P= 75 years (hazard ratio 1.69, 95% CI 1.51-1.90, P Conclusions-In a large population of patients anticoagulated for nonvalvular atrial fibrillation, approximate to 7 in 10 deaths were cardiovascular, whereasPeer reviewe