Overview of case definitions and contact tracing indications in the 2022 monkeypox outbreak

Background: In 2022, a new outbreak of the Mpox virus occurred outside of Africa, its usual endemic area. The virus was detected in European, American, Asian, and Oceanian countries where Mpox is uncommon or had not been reported previously and where the spread was rapid. The study aims to compare the case definition and the indications for contact tracing in case of Mpox infection among the World Health Organization (WHO), the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC), and four European Countries. Methods: From August 2022 to November 2022, we conducted research, first on the WHO and ECDC official websites and then on the official websites of the Ministry of Health or National Health Agencies of four European Countries (Italy, France, Spain, and Portu-gal). All reports found were compared to enlighten the differences in the definition of the case and indications for contact tracing. Results: The WHO divides the case definition into four categories: suspected, probable, confirmed, and dis-carded, while the ECDC divides cases into confirmed and probable. The ECDC defines contact as close and others, while the WHO divides it into high, medium, and minimal risk. The four countries analyzed show heterogeneity in both the case definitions and the indications for contact tracing. Conclusions: Our analysis revealed heterogeneity in the case definition between the WHO and ECDC. Different countries followed different indications or have given their indications for both the case definition and contact tracing indications. Harmonization strengthens public health preparedness and response and creates unified communication

Is raw better? A multiple DNA barcoding approach (full and mini) based on mitochondrial and nuclear markers reveals low rates of misdescription in sushi products sold on the Italian market

New dietary habits have favored an ever growing popularity of Eastern country cooking style and in particular of sushi. Even though the Reg. (EU) 1379/2013 does not apply to restaurants and caterers, the Reg. (EU) 1169/2011 establishes that all the information they provided to the final consumer have to meet the transparency requirements as regards the description of the ingredients used for the preparation of food. The present study aimed at performing a molecular based survey to identify the seafood species used in the sushi preparations at the retail level. A total of 185 samples were collected from sushi venues and supermarkets and DNA barcoding, followed by a pairwise divergence and Neighbor Joining clustering analysis, was applied in order to verify the information declared at purchase. Rather than to a proper training of Food Business Operators working at the catering level, the low mislabeling rate found in this study (3.4%) could be ascribed to the standardization of the products sold in ethnic restaurants. In fact, the common practice of proposing standardized menus always relying on the same species of fish could limit the risk of mislabeling occurrence

New understandings of the genetic basis of isolated idiopathic central hypogonadism

Idiopathic hypogonadotropic hypogonadism is a rare disease that is characterized by delayed/absent puberty and/or infertility due to an insufficient stimulation of an otherwise normal pituitary-gonadal axis by gonadotrophin-releasing hormone (GnRH) action. Because reduced or normal luteinizing hormone (LH)/follicle-stimulating hormone (FSH) levels may be observed in the affected patients, the term idiopathic central hypogonadism (ICH) appears to be more appropriate. This disease should be distinguished from central hypogonadism that is combined with other pituitary deficiencies. Isolated ICH has a complex pathogenesis and is fivefold more prevalent in males. ICH frequently appears in a sporadic form, but several familial cases have also been reported. This finding, in conjunction with the description of numerous pathogenetic gene variants and the generation of several knockout models, supports the existence of a strong genetic component. ICH may be associated with several morphogenetic abnormalities, which include osmic defects that, with ICH, constitute the cardinal manifestations of Kallmann syndrome (KS). KS accounts for approximately 40% of the total ICH cases and has been generally considered to be a distinct subgroup. However, the description of several pedigrees, which include relatives who are affected either with isolated osmic defects, KS, or normo-osmic ICH (nICH), justifies the emerging idea that ICH is a complex genetic disease that is characterized by variable expressivity and penetrance. In this context, either multiple gene variants or environmental factors and epigenetic modifications may contribute to the variable disease manifestations. We review the genetic mechanisms that are presently known to be involved in ICH pathogenesis and provide a clinical overview of the 227 cases that have been collected by the collaborating centres of the Italian ICH Network

Retrospective Investigation of an Influenza A/H1N1pdm Outbreak in an Italian Military Ship Cruising in the Mediterranean Sea, May-September 2009

BACKGROUND: Clinical surveillance may have underestimated the real extent of the spread of the new strain of influenza A/H1N1, which surfaced in April 2009 originating the first influenza pandemic of the 21(st) century. Here we report a serological investigation on an influenza A/H1N1pdm outbreak in an Italian military ship while cruising in the Mediterranean Sea (May 24-September 6, 2009). METHODS: The contemporary presence of HAI and CF antibodies was used to retrospectively estimate the extent of influenza A/H1N1pdm spread across the crew members (median age: 29 years). FINDINGS: During the cruise, 2 crew members fulfilled the surveillance case definition for influenza, but only one was laboratory confirmed by influenza A/H1N1pdm-specific RT-PCR; 52 reported acute respiratory illness (ARI) episodes, and 183 reported no ARI episodes. Overall, among the 211 crew member for whom a valid serological result was available, 39.3% tested seropositive for influenza A/H1N1pdm. The proportion of seropositives was significantly associated with more crowded living quarters and tended to be higher in those aged <40 and in those reporting ARI or suspected/confirmed influenza A/H1N1pdm compared to the asymptomatic individuals. No association was found with previous seasonal influenza vaccination. CONCLUSIONS: These findings underline the risk for rapid spread of novel strains of influenza A in confined environment, such as military ships, where crowding, rigorous working environment, physiologic stress occur. The high proportion of asymptomatic infections in this ship-borne outbreak supports the concept that serological surveillance in such semi-closed communities is essential to appreciate the real extent of influenza A/H1N1pdm spread and can constitute, since the early stage of a pandemic, an useful model to predict the public health impact of pandemic influenza and to establish proportionate and effective countermeasures

New understandings of the genetic basis of isolated idiopathic central hypogonadism

Idiopathic hypogonadotropic hypogonadism is a rare disease that is characterized by delayed/absent puberty and/or infertility due to an insufficient stimulation of an otherwise normal pituitary-gonadal axis by gonadotrophin-releasing hormone (GnRH) action. Because reduced or normal luteinizing hormone (LH)/follicle-stimulating hormone (FSH) levels may be observed in the affected patients, the term idiopathic central hypogonadism (ICH) appears to be more appropriate. This disease should be distinguished from central hypogonadism that is combined with other pituitary deficiencies. Isolated ICH has a complex pathogenesis and is fivefold more prevalent in males. ICH frequently appears in a sporadic form, but several familial cases have also been reported. This finding, in conjunction with the description of numerous pathogenetic gene variants and the generation of several knockout models, supports the existence of a strong genetic component. ICH may be associated with several morphogenetic abnormalities, which include osmic defects that, with ICH, constitute the cardinal manifestations of Kallmann syndrome (KS). KS accounts for approximately 40% of the total ICH cases and has been generally considered to be a distinct subgroup. However, the description of several pedigrees, which include relatives who are affected either with isolated osmic defects, KS, or normo-osmic ICH (nICH), justifies the emerging idea that ICH is a complex genetic disease that is characterized by variable expressivity and penetrance. In this context, either multiple gene variants or environmental factors and epigenetic modifications may contribute to the variable disease manifestations. We review the genetic mechanisms that are presently known to be involved in ICH pathogenesis and provide a clinical overview of the 227 cases that have been collected by the collaborating centres of the Italian ICH Network

Burden of disease scenarios for 204 countries and territories, 2022–2050: a forecasting analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

Background: Future trends in disease burden and drivers of health are of great interest to policy makers and the public at large. This information can be used for policy and long-term health investment, planning, and prioritisation. We have expanded and improved upon previous forecasts produced as part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) and provide a reference forecast (the most likely future), and alternative scenarios assessing disease burden trajectories if selected sets of risk factors were eliminated from current levels by 2050. Methods: Using forecasts of major drivers of health such as the Socio-demographic Index (SDI; a composite measure of lag-distributed income per capita, mean years of education, and total fertility under 25 years of age) and the full set of risk factor exposures captured by GBD, we provide cause-specific forecasts of mortality, years of life lost (YLLs), years lived with disability (YLDs), and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) by age and sex from 2022 to 2050 for 204 countries and territories, 21 GBD regions, seven super-regions, and the world. All analyses were done at the cause-specific level so that only risk factors deemed causal by the GBD comparative risk assessment influenced future trajectories of mortality for each disease. Cause-specific mortality was modelled using mixed-effects models with SDI and time as the main covariates, and the combined impact of causal risk factors as an offset in the model. At the all-cause mortality level, we captured unexplained variation by modelling residuals with an autoregressive integrated moving average model with drift attenuation. These all-cause forecasts constrained the cause-specific forecasts at successively deeper levels of the GBD cause hierarchy using cascading mortality models, thus ensuring a robust estimate of cause-specific mortality. For non-fatal measures (eg, low back pain), incidence and prevalence were forecasted from mixed-effects models with SDI as the main covariate, and YLDs were computed from the resulting prevalence forecasts and average disability weights from GBD. Alternative future scenarios were constructed by replacing appropriate reference trajectories for risk factors with hypothetical trajectories of gradual elimination of risk factor exposure from current levels to 2050. The scenarios were constructed from various sets of risk factors: environmental risks (Safer Environment scenario), risks associated with communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional diseases (CMNNs; Improved Childhood Nutrition and Vaccination scenario), risks associated with major non-communicable diseases (NCDs; Improved Behavioural and Metabolic Risks scenario), and the combined effects of these three scenarios. Using the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways climate scenarios SSP2-4.5 as reference and SSP1-1.9 as an optimistic alternative in the Safer Environment scenario, we accounted for climate change impact on health by using the most recent Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change temperature forecasts and published trajectories of ambient air pollution for the same two scenarios. Life expectancy and healthy life expectancy were computed using standard methods. The forecasting framework includes computing the age-sex-specific future population for each location and separately for each scenario. 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) for each individual future estimate were derived from the 2·5th and 97·5th percentiles of distributions generated from propagating 500 draws through the multistage computational pipeline. Findings: In the reference scenario forecast, global and super-regional life expectancy increased from 2022 to 2050, but improvement was at a slower pace than in the three decades preceding the COVID-19 pandemic (beginning in 2020). Gains in future life expectancy were forecasted to be greatest in super-regions with comparatively low life expectancies (such as sub-Saharan Africa) compared with super-regions with higher life expectancies (such as the high-income super-region), leading to a trend towards convergence in life expectancy across locations between now and 2050. At the super-region level, forecasted healthy life expectancy patterns were similar to those of life expectancies. Forecasts for the reference scenario found that health will improve in the coming decades, with all-cause age-standardised DALY rates decreasing in every GBD super-region. The total DALY burden measured in counts, however, will increase in every super-region, largely a function of population ageing and growth. We also forecasted that both DALY counts and age-standardised DALY rates will continue to shift from CMNNs to NCDs, with the most pronounced shifts occurring in sub-Saharan Africa (60·1% [95% UI 56·8–63·1] of DALYs were from CMNNs in 2022 compared with 35·8% [31·0–45·0] in 2050) and south Asia (31·7% [29·2–34·1] to 15·5% [13·7–17·5]). This shift is reflected in the leading global causes of DALYs, with the top four causes in 2050 being ischaemic heart disease, stroke, diabetes, and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, compared with 2022, with ischaemic heart disease, neonatal disorders, stroke, and lower respiratory infections at the top. The global proportion of DALYs due to YLDs likewise increased from 33·8% (27·4–40·3) to 41·1% (33·9–48·1) from 2022 to 2050, demonstrating an important shift in overall disease burden towards morbidity and away from premature death. The largest shift of this kind was forecasted for sub-Saharan Africa, from 20·1% (15·6–25·3) of DALYs due to YLDs in 2022 to 35·6% (26·5–43·0) in 2050. In the assessment of alternative future scenarios, the combined effects of the scenarios (Safer Environment, Improved Childhood Nutrition and Vaccination, and Improved Behavioural and Metabolic Risks scenarios) demonstrated an important decrease in the global burden of DALYs in 2050 of 15·4% (13·5–17·5) compared with the reference scenario, with decreases across super-regions ranging from 10·4% (9·7–11·3) in the high-income super-region to 23·9% (20·7–27·3) in north Africa and the Middle East. The Safer Environment scenario had its largest decrease in sub-Saharan Africa (5·2% [3·5–6·8]), the Improved Behavioural and Metabolic Risks scenario in north Africa and the Middle East (23·2% [20·2–26·5]), and the Improved Nutrition and Vaccination scenario in sub-Saharan Africa (2·0% [–0·6 to 3·6]). Interpretation: Globally, life expectancy and age-standardised disease burden were forecasted to improve between 2022 and 2050, with the majority of the burden continuing to shift from CMNNs to NCDs. That said, continued progress on reducing the CMNN disease burden will be dependent on maintaining investment in and policy emphasis on CMNN disease prevention and treatment. Mostly due to growth and ageing of populations, the number of deaths and DALYs due to all causes combined will generally increase. By constructing alternative future scenarios wherein certain risk exposures are eliminated by 2050, we have shown that opportunities exist to substantially improve health outcomes in the future through concerted efforts to prevent exposure to well established risk factors and to expand access to key health interventions

Global incidence, prevalence, years lived with disability (YLDs), disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), and healthy life expectancy (HALE) for 371 diseases and injuries in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations, 1990–2021: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

Background: Detailed, comprehensive, and timely reporting on population health by underlying causes of disability and premature death is crucial to understanding and responding to complex patterns of disease and injury burden over time and across age groups, sexes, and locations. The availability of disease burden estimates can promote evidence-based interventions that enable public health researchers, policy makers, and other professionals to implement strategies that can mitigate diseases. It can also facilitate more rigorous monitoring of progress towards national and international health targets, such as the Sustainable Development Goals. For three decades, the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) has filled that need. A global network of collaborators contributed to the production of GBD 2021 by providing, reviewing, and analysing all available data. GBD estimates are updated routinely with additional data and refined analytical methods. GBD 2021 presents, for the first time, estimates of health loss due to the COVID-19 pandemic. Methods: The GBD 2021 disease and injury burden analysis estimated years lived with disability (YLDs), years of life lost (YLLs), disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), and healthy life expectancy (HALE) for 371 diseases and injuries using 100 983 data sources. Data were extracted from vital registration systems, verbal autopsies, censuses, household surveys, disease-specific registries, health service contact data, and other sources. YLDs were calculated by multiplying cause-age-sex-location-year-specific prevalence of sequelae by their respective disability weights, for each disease and injury. YLLs were calculated by multiplying cause-age-sex-location-year-specific deaths by the standard life expectancy at the age that death occurred. DALYs were calculated by summing YLDs and YLLs. HALE estimates were produced using YLDs per capita and age-specific mortality rates by location, age, sex, year, and cause. 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) were generated for all final estimates as the 2·5th and 97·5th percentiles values of 500 draws. Uncertainty was propagated at each step of the estimation process. Counts and age-standardised rates were calculated globally, for seven super-regions, 21 regions, 204 countries and territories (including 21 countries with subnational locations), and 811 subnational locations, from 1990 to 2021. Here we report data for 2010 to 2021 to highlight trends in disease burden over the past decade and through the first 2 years of the COVID-19 pandemic. Findings: Global DALYs increased from 2·63 billion (95% UI 2·44–2·85) in 2010 to 2·88 billion (2·64–3·15) in 2021 for all causes combined. Much of this increase in the number of DALYs was due to population growth and ageing, as indicated by a decrease in global age-standardised all-cause DALY rates of 14·2% (95% UI 10·7–17·3) between 2010 and 2019. Notably, however, this decrease in rates reversed during the first 2 years of the COVID-19 pandemic, with increases in global age-standardised all-cause DALY rates since 2019 of 4·1% (1·8–6·3) in 2020 and 7·2% (4·7–10·0) in 2021. In 2021, COVID-19 was the leading cause of DALYs globally (212·0 million [198·0–234·5] DALYs), followed by ischaemic heart disease (188·3 million [176·7–198·3]), neonatal disorders (186·3 million [162·3–214·9]), and stroke (160·4 million [148·0–171·7]). However, notable health gains were seen among other leading communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional (CMNN) diseases. Globally between 2010 and 2021, the age-standardised DALY rates for HIV/AIDS decreased by 47·8% (43·3–51·7) and for diarrhoeal diseases decreased by 47·0% (39·9–52·9). Non-communicable diseases contributed 1·73 billion (95% UI 1·54–1·94) DALYs in 2021, with a decrease in age-standardised DALY rates since 2010 of 6·4% (95% UI 3·5–9·5). Between 2010 and 2021, among the 25 leading Level 3 causes, age-standardised DALY rates increased most substantially for anxiety disorders (16·7% [14·0–19·8]), depressive disorders (16·4% [11·9–21·3]), and diabetes (14·0% [10·0–17·4]). Age-standardised DALY rates due to injuries decreased globally by 24·0% (20·7–27·2) between 2010 and 2021, although improvements were not uniform across locations, ages, and sexes. Globally, HALE at birth improved slightly, from 61·3 years (58·6–63·6) in 2010 to 62·2 years (59·4–64·7) in 2021. However, despite this overall increase, HALE decreased by 2·2% (1·6–2·9) between 2019 and 2021. Interpretation: Putting the COVID-19 pandemic in the context of a mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive list of causes of health loss is crucial to understanding its impact and ensuring that health funding and policy address needs at both local and global levels through cost-effective and evidence-based interventions. A global epidemiological transition remains underway. Our findings suggest that prioritising non-communicable disease prevention and treatment policies, as well as strengthening health systems, continues to be crucially important. The progress on reducing the burden of CMNN diseases must not stall; although global trends are improving, the burden of CMNN diseases remains unacceptably high. Evidence-based interventions will help save the lives of young children and mothers and improve the overall health and economic conditions of societies across the world. Governments and multilateral organisations should prioritise pandemic preparedness planning alongside efforts to reduce the burden of diseases and injuries that will strain resources in the coming decades. Funding: Bill &amp; Melinda Gates Foundation