Explaining price differences between physical and derivative freight contracts

Physical time-charters (TC) and Forward Freight Agreements (FFAs) represent two hedging approaches that differ in terms of risks and physical access to transportation. We investigate the determinants of the time-varying TC-FFA freight rate differential in the dry bulk market. We find that TC and FFA prices are co-integrated but TC rates are generally priced higher than FFAs. The differential is explained by the level and slope of the term structure, a measure of economic ‘stress’ as well as vessel specifications and contractual terms. Finally, the TC-FFA differential is related to default risk premium and the potential convenience yield

Magnetorheological landing gear: 2. Validation using experimental data

Aircraft landing gears are subjected to a wide range of excitation conditions with conflicting damping requirements. A novel solution to this problem is to implement semi-active damping using magnetorheological (MR) fluids. In part 1 of this contribution, a methodology was developed that enables the geometry of a flow mode MR valve to be optimized within the constraints of an existing passive landing gear. The device was designed to be optimal in terms of its impact performance, which was demonstrated using numerical simulations of the complete landing gear system. To perform the simulations, assumptions were made regarding some of the parameters used in the MR shock strut model. In particular, the MR fluid's yield stress, viscosity, and bulk modulus properties were not known accurately. Therefore, the present contribution aims to validate these parameters experimentally, via the manufacture and testing of an MR shock strut. The gas exponent, which is used to model the shock strut's nonlinear stiffness, is also investigated. In general, it is shown that MR fluid property data at high shear rates are required in order to accurately predict performance prior to device manufacture. Furthermore, the study illustrates how fluid compressibility can have a significant influence on the device time constant, and hence on potential control strategies

Early initiation of antiretroviral therapy following in utero HIV infection is associated with low viral reservoirs but other factors determine subsequent plasma viral rebound

BACKGROUND: Early HIV diagnosis allows combination antiretroviral therapy (cART) initiation in the first days of life following in utero (IU) infection. The impact of early cART initiation on infant viral reservoir size in the setting of high-frequency cART non-adherence is unknown. METHODS: Peripheral blood total HIV DNA from 164 early treated (day 0-21 of life) IU HIV-infected South African infants was measured using droplet digital PCR at birth and following suppressive cART. We evaluated the impact of cART initiation timing on HIV reservoir size and decay, and on the risk of subsequent plasma viraemia in cART-suppressed infants. FINDINGS: Baseline HIV DNA (median 2.8 log10 copies/million PBMC, range 0.7 - 4.8) did not correlate with age at cART initiation (0-21 days) but instead with maternal antenatal cART use. In 98 infants with plasma viral suppression on cART, HIV DNA half-life was 28 days. However, the probability of maintenance of plasma aviraemia was low (0.46 at 12 months) and not influenced by HIV DNA load. Unexpectedly, longer time to viral suppression was associated with protection against subsequent viral rebound. CONCLUSIONS: With effective prophylaxis against mother-to-child transmission, cART initiation timing in the first 3 weeks of life is not critical to reservoir size

A Novel Forecasting Model for the Baltic Dry Index Utilizing Optimal Squeezing

Marine transport has grown rapidly as the result of globalization and sustainable world growth rates. Shipping market risks and uncertainty have also grown and need to be mitigated with the development of a more reliable procedure to predict changes in freight rates. In this paper, we propose a new forecasting model and apply it to the Baltic Dry Index (BDI). Such a model compresses, in an optimal way, information from the past in order to predict freight rates. To develop the forecasting model, we deploy a basic set of predictors, add lags of the BDI and introduce additional variables, in applying Bayesian compressed regression (BCR), with two important innovations. First, we include transition functions in the predictive set to capture both smooth and abrupt changes in the time path of BDI; second, we do not estimate the parameters of the transition functions, but rather embed them in the random search procedure inherent in BCR. This allows all coefficients to evolve in a time-varying manner, while searching for the best predictors within the historical set of data. The new procedures predict the BDI with considerable success

Paediatric non-progression following grandmother-to-child HIV transmission

Background In contrast to adult HIV infection, where slow disease progression is strongly linked to immune control of HIV mediated by protective HLA class I molecules such as HLA-B*81:01, the mechanisms by which a minority of HIV-infected children maintain normal-for-age CD4 counts and remain clinically healthy appear to be HLA class I-independent and are largely unknown. To better understand these mechanisms, we here studied a HIV-infected South African female, who remained a non-progressor throughout childhood. Results Phylogenetic analysis of viral sequences in the HIV-infected family members, together with the history of grand-maternal breast-feeding, indicated that, unusually, the non-progressor child had been infected via grandmother-to-child transmission. Although HLA-B*81:01 was expressed by both grandmother and grand-daughter, autologous virus in each subject encoded an escape mutation L188F within the immunodominant HLA-B*81:01-restricted Gag-specific epitope TL9 (TPQDLNTML, Gag 180–188). Since the transmitted virus can influence paediatric and adult HIV disease progression, we investigated the impact of the L188F mutant on replicative capacity. When this variant was introduced into three distinct HIV clones in vitro, viral replicative capacity was abrogated altogether. However, a virus constructed using the gag sequence of the non-progressor child replicated as efficiently as wildtype virus. Conclusion These findings suggest alternative sequences of events: the transmission of the uncompensated low fitness L188F to both children, potentially contributing to slow progression in both, consistent with previous studies indicating that disease progression in children can be influenced by the replicative capacity of the transmitted virus; or the transmission of fully compensated virus, and slow progression here principally the result of HLA-independent host-specific factors, yet to be defined

Slow progression of pediatric HIV associates with early CD8+ T cell PD-1 expression and a stem-like phenotype

HIV non-progression despite persistent viraemia is rare among antiretroviral therapy (ART)-naïve adults, but relatively common among ART-naïve children. Previous studies indicate that ART-naïve paediatric slow-progressors (PSPs) adopt immune evasion strategies similar to those described in the SIV natural hosts. However, the mechanisms underlying this immunophenotype are not well understood. In a cohort of early-treated infants who underwent analytical treatment interruption (ATI) after 12 months of ART, expression of PD-1 on CD8+ T-cells immediately prior to ATI was the main predictor of slow progression during ATI (r=0.77, p=0.002). PD-1+ CD8+ T-cell frequency was also negatively correlated with CCR5 (r=-0.74, p=0.005) and HLA-DR (r=-0.63, p=0.02) expression on CD4+ T-cells and predicted stronger HIV-specific T-lymphocyte responses. In the CD8+ T-cell compartment of PSPs, we identified an enrichment of stem-like TCF-1+PD-1+ memory cells, whereas paediatric progressors and viraemic adults were populated with a terminally exhausted PD-1+CD39+ population. TCF-1+PD-1+ expression on CD8+ T-cells was associated with higher proliferative activity (r=0.41, p=0.03) and stronger Gag-specific effector functionality. These data prompt the hypothesis that the proliferative burst potential of stem-like HIV-specific cytotoxic cells could be exploited in therapeutic strategies to boost the antiviral response and facilitate remission in early-ART-treated infants with a preserved and non-exhausted T-cell compartment

High-frequency failure of combination antiretroviral therapy in paediatric HIV infection is associated with unmet maternal needs causing maternal non-adherence

Background Early combination antiretroviral therapy (cART) reduces the size of the viral reservoir in paediatric and adult HIV infection. Very early-treated children may have higher cure/remission potential. Methods In an observational study of 151 in utero (IU)-infected infants in KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa, whose treatment adhered strictly to national guidelines, 76 infants diagnosed via point-of-care (PoC) testing initiated cART at a median of 26 h (IQR 18–38) and 75 infants diagnosed via standard-of-care (SoC) laboratory-based testing initiated cART at 10 days (IQR 8–13). We analysed mortality, time to suppression of viraemia, and maintenance of aviraemia over the first 2 years of life. Findings Baseline plasma viral loads were low (median 8000 copies per mL), with 12% of infants having undetectable viraemia pre-cART initiation. However, barely one-third (37%) of children achieved suppression of viraemia by 6 months that was maintained to >12 months. 24% had died or were lost to follow up by 6 months. Infant mortality was 9.3%. The high-frequency virological failure in IU-infected infants was associated not with transmitted or acquired drug-resistant mutations but with cART non-adherence (plasma cART undetectable/subtherapeutic, p<0.0001) and with concurrent maternal cART failure (OR 15.0, 95%CI 5.6–39.6; p<0.0001). High-frequency virological failure was observed in PoC- and SoC-tested groups of children. Interpretation The success of early infant testing and cART initiation strategies is severely limited by subsequent cART non-adherence in HIV-infected children. Although there are practical challenges to administering paediatric cART formulations, these are overcome by mothers who themselves are cART-adherent. These findings point to the ongoing obligation to address the unmet needs of the mothers. Eliminating the particular barriers preventing adequate treatment for these vulnerable women and infants need to be prioritised in order to achieve durable suppression of viraemia on cART, let alone HIV cure/remission, in HIV-infected children